80. new cert method
TRANSCRIPT
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New Cert Method
Another Flat season is here again with its traditional big handicap to get us
under way - the Lincolnshire. You realise that you are no longer a novice at
this racing game when you can recall the Lincoln taking place in its original
venue, and not in Doncaster as now. Question. What was special about the
Lincoln of 1948? Lots of things maybe, if you were the winning owner, trainer
or jockey or if you had backed the winner at 33/1. But historically, it was
something else. The number of runners who lined up for the flag start that day
was a staggering 58, almost double the maximum allowed today, and I
understand it created a world record. The winner, incidentally, was
Commissar, trained by Arthur Budgett and ridden by Bill Rickaby. He had
been bought as a foal for only 270 guineas, and although he was an 8-year
old, the Lincoln was his very first attempt at a mile.
However, enough of looking back; let's look ahead to the new Flat season
with two simple ideas that I think should be profitable. First, the one I
mentioned in November, based on the Signposts feature, the most popular
Nap of the day. I'm sure it will be worth following, especially with these two
additional suggestions. Sometimes there is no single most popular Nap, with
perhaps 2, 3 or even 4 or more sharing the honour. When that happens I'd
advise splitting your stake if there are 2, but should there be more than 2 I'd
suggest no bet that day. Obviously, a singular most popular Nap must carry
more confidence than when there are two or more. My second suggestion is
simply to use a modest staking plan since the winning strike rate is so high.
We've given a number of suitable staking plans with our systems over the
past months, so choose whatever one best suits your individual approach.
My second idea is also remarkably simple and profitable, and with fewer
selections than the previous one. I have the complete figures for Flat season
2002, but not for last year. If anyone wishes to research it for 2003 you might
come up with some interesting results. I'd hope it would be just as profitable
as the previous year. In 2002 there were 129 selections and 40 winners, a
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strike rate of 31%. It produced a profit of over 40 points. And what is this
simple idea? Back all beaten favourites on their last run that were odds-on for
that run. That's it, and you'd be surprised at some of the big prices you get
when you back them. As I write this I'm looking at Saturday 6th September
2003, where The Persuader, odds-on from his previous run, won nicely at11/2.
After the serious business of racing, let's turn to the more trivial matter of
politics! I saw something on T.V. the other day that reminded me of the best
political joke I've ever known - a real classic - so I thought I might re-tell it.
What I saw on T.V. was Charles Kennedy, the Lib-Dem leader, being
interviewed by Jeremy Paxman or some such interrogator. One question was,
"Could you imagine being married to someone who didn't share your politicalviews?" Kennedy was rather taken aback and said that he'd never considered
such a possibility, but on reflection thought that he probably couldn't. And
that's what reminded me of the joke.
A female Labour M.P. and a male Tory M.P. decided that they would get
married despite their obvious political differences. Everything went well until
they arrived at the honeymoon hotel. They were having a drink in the bar
before adjourning to bed to consummate the political alliance, when someone
made a political comment that sparked a fierce ideological argument, resulting
in our honeymoon couple going to bed at each other's throats, rather than
some other part of their anatomies! They lay in the honeymoon double bed
poles and policies apart. But human nature being what it is (even for MPs),
the new wife in the middle of the night spoke wistfully from the back of the bed
saying, "There is a split in the Labour party, and if the Conservative member
would like to stand, I'm sure he would get in." From the front of the bed came
her new husband's sad reply, "The Conservative member has already stood,
independently, three times and on each occasion has lost his deposit."
If you're like me there are times in your betting life when you fancy following a
system that gives longer-priced, more speculative selections; but at other
stages you go for the shorter-priced near certainties. That's what we have
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here. I can remember following this system when it was called Cert A Day, but
then new rules were added making it even more selective and more
profitable, and with a new name - New Cert Method. Everything is fully and
clearly explained with results. Just one other thing needs to be said. It lists
the four Racing Post tipsters to be used - Diomed, Topspeed, Postmark andSpotlight. Of course Diomed is no longer one of them, so we have the choice
of using the other three only, or adding Postdata as the fourth. My preference
would be to use the four, as this preserves the essence of the system.
New Cert Method
Before outlining the new rules for the Cert Method, I'll give the basic rules first
as you'll need to apply these before you can narrow the selections down.
Basic Rules.
1. The paper required to operate this system is the Racing Post.
2. The meeting to concentrate on is the day's principal meeting. This is usually
covered on the centre pages of the Racing Post.
3. The races to consider are all non-handicap races. All non-handicap races,
sellers, claimers etc, as long as it is a non-handicap race you consider it.
4. Taking each non-handicap race in turn, you see what is being selected by
the following four tipsters - Diomed, Topspeed, Postmark and Spotlight. If
three of these four advisers select the same horse in a particular non-
handicap race and it is forecast favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast, it
goes onto the short list. At this stage delete from your short list any horse that
is forecast lower than 2/5, i.e., if quoted at 2/5 or better it stays on the short
list. If quoted at 4/11, 1/3 etc it is deleted from the short list.
5. Once you have been through all the non-handicap races at the principal
meeting and short-listed those horses indicated by the rules above, you will
then obtain the day's selection by backing the horse at the lowest forecast
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starting price. If two horses are forecast at the same starting price, then back
both.
6. Nine days out of ten you will obtain a selection from the principal meeting.
Occasionally you will not. In these instances apply the above set of rules tothe first meeting covered in the Racing Post and if still no bet, the second
meeting and so on until you arrive at a selection. Very occasionally you will
have a no betting day. Note. You only count the horse as being selected by
Postmark if it is clear top rated.
Those are the basic rules of the Cert Method. By using this method over the
last four months you would have obtained the following selections. Although
some may consider four months as not long enough to be conclusive, I wouldpoint out that we have covered this method over the last year or so, and a
50% strike rate is a fair indication of how the system will perform overall.
There were 52 winners from 100 bets, with a L.S.P. of 9.12 points. Return on
outlay 9%.
To make the method even more selective and profitable, you can apply the
following. First of all, apply the basic Cert rules to find the day's selection.
Wait for a loser, and then start backing the Cert selections. For instance, if on
day one the selection loses, you back the Cert selection on day two. If the
selection loses on day two, you back the selection on day three and so on
until you have a winner. Once you have a winner you wait until the Cert
Method gives another loser before you start backing again. By operating in
this manner you would have narrowed down the basic selections of the
method to - 47 bets with 29 winners, an L.S.P. of 15.52 points and return on
investment of 33%.
The second way of making the Cert Method even more selective is just an
extension of the above rule. Work the basic Cert Method as usual, but wait
until the method has given two consecutive losers before starting to back the
Cert selections. Once you have backed a winner, stop betting until the method
again gives two consecutive losers. This would have given the following
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results. 18 bets giving 13 winners, with a L.S.P. of 10.23 points and return on
investment of 60%.
Taking the idea one stage further and only backing Cert selections after three
consecutive losers would have given four bets and four winners and aninvestment return of 79%. This is probably taking the idea too far as few
punters would be prepared to wait four months for only four bets at these
prices.