89. the ace

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    The Ace

    "No, no, stop. Too much information!" How often have we heard that saidnowadays when a friend is imparting to us too many lurid details of someintimate, personal relationship! That current phrase 'Too much information'sticks in my mind also when considering, not just systems, but also the whole

    process of trying to select winners. At times it seems we really do have toomuch information at our disposal. But then again, can we ever have toomuch? Does success lie in considering all the possibilities available to us? 1honestly don't know the answer, if there is one. I'm sure many of us areaware, however, of the Brimardon service, widely advertised, and costing as Iwrite, about two and a half grand for six months' selections. It certainly seemsto come up with the results, achieving a profit of 554 points in 2002. I'm not asubscriber myself, but I understand that these figures are genuine andproofed to the Racing Post. And I further gather from their advertising materialthat they consider thousands of positive and negative values in every raceevalued. Yes, thousands. Obviously, it is all done by computer but it puts themanual efforts of mere mortals (like myself) in some kind of perspective. Dowe need to evaluate thousands of factors in every race to find the winner? Arewe wasting our time (and money) if we are unable to do so? I am simplyposing the questions, not answering them. One thing I will say aboutBrimardon is this. They have been in operation since 1985, and I would makean educated guess that the founders then were three guys named Brian,Martin and Donald!

    Before leaving this interesting subject of Brimardon - of course it is interestingif it makes 554 points of profit in a year - I'd like to make a suggestion. I canremember in the years since 1985 seeing the Brimardon software programmewhich supplies their winners being offered for sale in computer magazines

    and the national press. If such an offer is still available from any member I'dbe interested to have it, and perhaps conduct a trial to let you all know howthe results are going. Too much information? With 554 points profit, I thinkmaybe not!

    I was sitting at a cremation service the other day having a quiet laugh tomyself. Now, before you accuse me of gross insensitivity, let me explain. Icouldn't help but remember as I sat there a cremation joke I'd heard just somedays earlier. But before I tell it may I mention a great novel that I read sometime ago by the Scottish author lan Banks, and it is called The Crow Road. Inthe opening chapter the hero's grandmother is being cremated when there isan almighty explosion. It turns out that she was fitted with a pace-maker which

    hadn't been removed and that is what caused the blast in the furnace. Thestory continues beautifully after that explosive start. Back to our joke. Thecremation is taking place of a famous and flamboyant heart surgeon. He hadleft instructions that the gates through which the coffin would disappear intothe furnace should be decorated with flowers in the shape of a heart (asbefitted his profession), and it is at this point in the service that our jokebegins. The heart-shaped floral doors had just parted when a mourner beganto laugh quite audibly. His neighbour turned to him angrily and suggested thathe show more respect. The laughing mourner said, "I can't help it. You see,

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    I'm just considering what could happen at my own cremation when it comes.""And why on earth should your cremation cause you such amusement?"asked the neighbour.

    Remember last month we had the horse's name telling the World War Twostory of the Dambusters. We've another story this time; not a specific one,

    more a general type - the western. Like most other young lads of mygeneration I was an avid reader of westerns, and looking back now I realisethat they were all basically the same story. The hero would be a tall, tough,slow-spoken cowboy and probably called Tex or Hank. The villains were theIndians cunning, ruthless and addicted to scalps and firewater.Furthermore, they always had to be defeated and Tex or Hank always won.Even more satisfying, Tex or Hank invariably also won the hand and heart ofthe beautiful Lois or Consuela. Simple stuff, I know, but how we enjoyed itthen.

    Memories of that kind of story all came back to me when I saw this horse'sname. It is Ambushed by Indian Ridge out of Surprise Move. One final horse's

    name for this month, not a story, more a witty and accurate comment onmodem life. Cash 'N Credit is the horse and it is by Homo Sapien out of NotEnough. That's us, all right!

    On to our classic system for August. It is called (not very originally) The AceSystem. At a rough count, it evaluates about ten factors in each race which, Isuppose, is manageable if not exhaustive. It can't compare with the thousandsof positive and negative values mentioned earlier, but nonetheless, maybeThe Ace will come up trumps.

    Finally, next month marks our second anniversary of contributions, so beforethen I'll dig deep to try and unearth something a bit special. I might also try outmy new rating system mentioned last month.

    THE ACE SYSTEM

    1. USE RACING POST

    2. USE MAIN MEETING ONLY (centre pages)

    3. CLEAR TOP RATED POSTMARK AND CLEAR TOP RATEDTOPSPEED

    4. SELECTION MUST BE RIDDEN BY A JOCKEY WHO IS IN THETOP 10 OF THE JOCKEY TABLES (for the first month of anyseason use last seasons tables)

    5. LAST TIME OUT SELECTION MUST NOT HAVE BEEN 10/1 ORMORE.

    6. LAST TIME OUT SELECTION MUST NOT HAVE BEEN BEATENMORE THAN THREE LENGTHS FLAT, OR FIVE LENGTHS N H.

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    7. IN HANDICAP RACES THE SELECTIONS HANDICAP MARK

    MUST BE NO MORE THAN 7LBS HIGHER THAN A MARK IT HASALREADY WON OFF. ALTERNATIVELY IT SHOULD BERUNNING FROM A MARK NO HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEENPLACED FROM IN ANY ONE OF ITS LAST FOUR RACES.

    8. IN NON HANDICAP RACES A SELECTION MUST HAVE RUN INMORE VALUABLE RACE THAN TODAY'S RACE LAST TIME OUT.

    9. SELECTION MUST BE FORECAST IN FIRST THREE IN RACINGPOST BETTING FORECAST IN RACES WITH TWELVE OR LESSRUNNERS, OR FIRST FOUR IN BETTING IN RACES WITH 13 ORMORE RUNNERS

    10. SELECTION MUST BE ABLE TO HANDLE GOING. ASELECTIONS ABILITY TO HANDLE GOING WILL BEDETERMINED BY REFERRING TO THE POSTDATA BOX AND

    MAKING SURE THE SELECTION HAS A TICK UNDER GOING.

    11. IGNORE ANY RACE WHERE A ODDS,FAVOURITE ISFORECAST.

    HANDICAP MARKS

    By referring to the form pages where the information is supplied for aselections last two or three runs you will find details of all races a possibleselection has won. Any win in a handicap will be listed and also the handicapmark the selection won off.

    For each race you will find a ratings table which indicates the handicap markthe horse is running off today. In these rating tables, to the left of theselections name you will find details of the horses last few races, the mark itran off and if it was placed off that mark.