7/31/2019 89833595 Mayfield Poll of TN 03

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7/31/2019 89833595 Mayfield Poll of TN 03

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!!To: Scottie Mayfield and Tommy Hopper

From: Whit Ayres and Dan Judy

Date: April 15, 2012

Re: Mayfield Leads 3rd District Republican Primary Race for Congress

Our firm conducted a survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Tennessee's new 3rd

Congressional District on April 3-5, 2012, with a margin of error of 4.90 percent. Key

highlights of the survey are:

1. Scottie Mayfield currently leads both incumbent Chuck Fleischmann and Weston

Wamp among likely Republican primary voters in the race for the Republican nomination

for Congress. In the three-way primary race, Mayfield leads with 34 percent, whileFleischmann and Wamp are tied at 25 percent each, and 17 percent are undecided. Fleischmann

holds a slim advantage among voters in the old 3rd

District, leading Mayfield by 32 to 30 percentwith Wamp at 23 percent. In the new portion of the district, however, Mayfield leads with 41

percent, followed by Wamp with 27 percent and Fleischmann with just 12 percent.

2. Chuck Fleischmanns numbers are weak for an incumbent. Fleischmann has 78

percent total name ID in the district, with a 42 to 19 percent favorable-unfavorable rating (18percent have no opinion of him). His job approval is a similar 42 to 23 percent. On thereelection question the toughest measure of an incumbents strength he fares poorly, with

only 28 percent saying he deserves reelection, and 48 percent saying it is time for someone else.

3. Scottie Mayfield is well known and popular among 3rd

District Republicans. ScottieMayfield has 75 percent total name ID in the district, and his 48 to 6 percent favorable-

unfavorable rating is remarkable for a non-politician. Regionally, his numbers are similar in theold and new portions of the 3

rdDistrict.

4. Weston Wamp is reasonably well known but undefined. Wamp has 62 percent total

name ID, with a modest 30 to 11 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. He is significantly betterknown in the old 3rd

District, where he has 68 percent name ID and a 34 to 13 percent favorable-

unfavorable rating. In the new parts of the district, he has just 49 percent name ID and a 22 to 7percent favorable-unfavorable rating.

The 3rd District Republican primary contest is wide open. Scottie Mayfield holds the initial

lead, and stands in an excellent position to win the nomination with a strong, well-fundedcampaign.