9-10-13 what if webcast
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
1/78
LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
September10,2013
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
2/78
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
3/78
Performance
DoubleLineTotalReturnBondFund QuarterEndingJune30,2013
QuarterEnd
June30,2013
2Q
2013
1YearAnnualized
3YearAnnualized
SinceInceptionAnnualized
(4610to63013)
Ishare 1.74% 1.59% 8.71% 10.69%
AsofJune30,2013 IShare NShare
GrossSEC30DayYield 4.18% 3.92%
Nshare 1.76% 1.65% 8.43% 10.41%
BarclaysU.S.
AggregateIndex 1.55%
2.32% 3.51% 4.53%
NetSEC30DayYield 4.18% 3.92%
AsofJune30,2013 IShare NShareBarclaysU.S.
AggregateIndex
1YrStdDeviation 1.97% 2.03% 2.74%
. .
Performancedata
quoted
represents
past
performance;
past
performance
does
not
guarantee
future
results.
The
investment
return
and
principal
valueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor'sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheoriginalcost.Current
performanceofthefundmaybelowerorhigherthantheperformancequoted.Performancedatacurrenttothemostrecentmonthendmaybe
obtainedbycalling2136338200orbyvisitingwww.doublelinefunds.com.
BarclaysUSAggregateIndexrepresentssecuritiesthatareSECregistered,taxable,anddollardenominated.Theindexcoversthe USinvestmentgradefixedrate
bond market with index com onents for overnment and cor orate securities mort a e assthrou h securities and assetbacked securities. These ma or sectors
2
aresubdividedintomorespecificindicesthatarecalculatedandreportedonaregularbasis.Itisnotpossibletoinvestinanindex.
PastPerformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Indexperformanceisnotillustrativeoffundperformance.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
4/78
PerformanceDoubleLineCoreFixedIncomeFund QuarterEndingJune30,2013
QuarterEnd
June30,2013
2Q
20131Year
Annualized
3YearAnnualized
SinceInceptionAnnualized
(6110to63013)
Ishare 2.35% 1.87% 7.64% 8.10%
Nshare 2.42% 1.52% 7.37% 7.83%
AsofJune30,2013 IShare NShareBarclaysU.S.
AggregateIndex
1YrStdDeviation 3.84% 3.79% 3.19%
GrossExpenseRatio 0.51% 0.76%
. .
AggregateIndex2.32% 0.69% 3.51% 3.93%
As
of
June
30,
2013 I
Share N
Share
GrossSEC30DayYield 3.65% 3.39%
NetSEC30DayYield 3.65% 3.39%
Performancedataquotedrepresentspastperformance;pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults. Theinvestmentreturnandprincipalvalueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor'sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheoriginalcost.Current
performanceofthefundmaybelowerorhigherthantheperformancequoted.Performancedatacurrenttothemostrecentmonthendmaybe
obtainedbycalling2136338200orbyvisitingwww.doublelinefunds.com.
BarclaysUSAggregateIndexrepresentssecuritiesthatareSECregistered,taxable,anddollardenominated.Theindexcoversthe USinvestmentgradefixedrate
3
on mar e ,w n excomponen s orgovernmen an corpora esecur es,mor gagepass roug secur es,an asse ac e secur es. esema orsec ors
aresubdividedintomorespecificindicesthatarecalculatedandreportedonaregularbasis.Itisnotpossibletoinvestinanindex.
PastPerformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Indexperformanceisnotillustrativeoffundperformance.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
5/78
Announcements
We castNews
BrendtStallings&HusamNazer September17,2013
Gotowww.doublelinefund.com,HomepageunderEventstoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
,RiverNorth/DoubleLine StrategicIncomeFundReOpening
Gotowww.rivernorthfunds.com,HomepageunderEventstoregister
1:15pm
PDT/4:15
pm
EDT
PhilBarach September24,2013LowDurationFund
Gotowww.doublelinefund.com,HomepageunderEventstoregister
1:15pm
PDT 4:15
pm
EDT
ToReceivePresentationSlides:
You can email
fundinfo@doubleline.comReferencestoothermutualfundsarenotasolicitationorrecommendationtobuyorsell.
RiverNorth /DoubleLine StrategicIncomeFundisnotdistributedbyQuasarDistribution,LLC.4
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
6/78
LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
September10,2013
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
7/78
TABI
BloodlessVerdict
of
the
Market
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
8/78
BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
Grey=Year2012
Blue=YearToDate2013
16.76%
15.44%
13.63%
HighYield(JOAO)
Convertibles(VOSO)
9.13%
.
9.52%
18.30%InternationalEmerging(IGOV)
0.85%
4.05%
3.28%InternationalDeveloped(NOGO)
orpora e
3.72%
3.03%
2.19%
.
Government(G0A0)
Mortgages(MOAO)
DataSource:
BofA/Merrill
Lynch
Indices
through
year
end
December
31,
2012
and
September
9,
2013
for
the
respective
years
indicated.
PleaseseetheAppendixforindexdefinitions.Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
7
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
9/78
BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
19.70%
rey=
ear
Blue=YearToDate2013
0.96%
7.88%
14.36%BBRatedHighYieldCredit(JOA1)
2.90%
11.98%
15.03%
BRatedHighYield(JOA2)
4.08%
4.05%
9.82%ARatedCredit(COA3)
5.61%3.97%AAARatedCredit(COA1)
InvestmentGrade=IndicesratedAAAtoBBB (shownabove)areconsideredtobeinvestmentgrade. AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBB or
higherbyStandard&PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Thehighertherating,themorelikelythebondistopaybackatpar/$100cents onthedollar.AAAisconsideredthehighest
qua yan e owes egreeo r s . eyarecons ere o es a ean epen a e.
BelowInvestmentGrade=Alsoknownasjunkbond(shownabove)isasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgradehavingaratingofBBB orbelow.Thesebondsareseenas
havinghigherdefaultriskorotheradversecreditevents,buttypicallypayhigheryieldsthanbetterqualitybondsinorder to makethemattractive.Theyarelesslikelytopay
backatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
Source:BofA/Merrill
Lynch
Indices as
of
December
31,
2012
and
September
9,
2013
and
for
their
respective
years
indicated.
PleaseseeappendixforIndexdefinitions
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex. 8
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
10/78
TheEndofQE?
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
11/78
HistoricalBondMarketSellOffsJune14,1961 throughJuly31,2013
10
Source:http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/08/therecentbondmarketselloffinhistoricalperspective.html
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
12/78
HistoricalBondMarketSellOffsJune14,1961 throughJuly31,2013
Source:
http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/08/the
recent
bond
market
selloff
in
historical
perspective.html
11
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
13/78
HistoricalBondMarketSellOffsJune14,1961 throughJuly31,2013
12
Source:http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/08/therecentbondmarketselloffinhistoricalperspective.html
Premia Part=premium.Thesumoverandabovearegularpriceasanincentive.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
14/78
Current30YearCumulativeTotalReturnPeaktoTroughAsMeasuredbytheBofA MerrillLynchCurrent30YearUSTreasury
0%
5%
k(%)
10%
eRe
turnFrom
Pe
15%
Cumulati
10/15/93
4/20/9507/25/12 9/5/13
Source:Bloomberg,BankofAmericaMerrillLynchCurrent30YUSTreasuryIndex(GA30).Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
DaysFromPeak
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
15/78
PotentialEffectsofFedFundPolicy(SanFranciscoFed)
14
Source:SanFranciscoFederalReserve,FRBSFEconomicLetter,August12,2013HowStimulatoryAreLargeScaleAssetPurchases?
GrossDomesticProduct (GDP)=Themonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sborders in aspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDPisusuallycalculatedonanannual
basis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccur withinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
16/78
PotentialEffectsofQuantitativeEasingPolicy
(SanFranciscoFed)
15
Source:SanFranciscoFederalReserve,FRBSFEconomicLetter,August12,2013HowStimulatoryAreLargeScaleAssetPurchases?
GrossDomesticProduct (GDP)=Themonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sborders in aspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDPisusuallycalculatedonanannual
basis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccur withinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
17/78
Quantitative Easing(QE)&theStockMarketMarch18,2009throughSeptember9,2013
16
Source:DoubleLine
QE=QuantitativeEasingprograms.OperationTwist=ThenamegiventoaFederalReservemonetarypolicyoperationthatinvolvesthepurchaseandsaleofbonds."OperationTwist"describesa
monetaryprocesswheretheFedbuysandsellsshorttermandlongtermbondsdependingontheirobjective.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
18/78
Quantitative Easing(QE)&theBondMarketMarch18,2009throughSeptember9,2013
17
Source:DoubleLine
QE=QuantitativeEasingprograms.OperationTwist=ThenamegiventoaFederalReservemonetarypolicyoperationthatinvolvesthepurchaseandsaleofbonds."OperationTwist"describesa
monetaryprocess
where
the
Fed
buys
and
sells
short
term
and
long
term
bonds
depending
on
their
objective.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
19/78
Stock&BondCorrelationsDecember 31,1941 throughAugust 30,2013
Source:Bianco Research
Stocksrepresented
by
the
SPX
=Standard
&
Poors
500
Index
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
of
500
stocks.
The
index
is
designed
to
measure
performance
of
the
broad
domestic
economy.
Bondsrepresentedbythe10yrUSTreasurybond.
Youcannotdirectlyinvestinanindex. 18
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
20/78
Stock&BondCorrelationsJune30,1994 throughAugust 29,2013
19
Source:Bianco Research
StocksrepresentedbytheSPX=Standard&Poors500Indexisacapitalizationweightedindexof500stocks.Theindexisdesignedtomeasureperformanceofthebroaddomesticeconomy.
Bondsrepresented
by
the
10
year
US
Treasury
Bond.
Youcannotdirectlyinvestinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
21/78
PerformanceSinceInceptionQE2October4,2011throughSeptember10,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
CRY=TR/JCRBCommoditiesExcessReturnIndexisanarithmeticaverageofcommodityfuturesprocesswithmonthlyrebalancing.
SPX=Standard
&
Poors
500
Index
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
of
500
stocks.
The
index
is
designed
to
measure
performance of
the
broad
domestic
economy.
TLT=iShares Barclays20+YearTreasuryBondFundinanexchangetradedfundincorporatedintheUSA.
Youcannotdirectlyinvestinanindex. 20
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
22/78
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
23/78
EmergingMarketsBondFundSharesOutstandingRise
andFallWithQEInfinityHopesSeptember
10,
2008
through
September
10,
2013
Source:Bloomberg
EMBSO=iShares JPMorganUSDEmergingMarketsBondFundSharesOutstandingIndexrepresentsthecurrentindexsharesoutstanding.Theindexis USdollardenominated.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.22
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
24/78
AsiaForeignExchangeChartDecember31,2012throughSeptember10,2013
23
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
INRUSD=INR=IndianRupee.USD=USDollar.ThisistheIndianRupeeconvertedintoUSDollars.
THBUSD=ThaiBahtcurrencyinUSdollars.PHPUSD=PhilippinePesoinUSdollars.MYRUSD=MalaysianRinggitinUSdollars.SGDUSD=SingaporedollarinUSdollars.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
25/78
FedTaperingEffectingForeignExchangeMarketsJanuary 1,2007throughJune30,2013
TRY=TurkishLiraspotprice.CZK=Chech Korunaspotprice.IDR=IndonesianRupiahspotprice.MYR=MalaysianRinggitspotprice.ZAR=SouthAfricanRandspotprice. CLP=ChileanPesospotprice.
PLN=PolishZlotyspotprice.HUF=HungarianForintspotprice.INR IndianRupeespotprice.THB=ThaiBahtspotprice.MXN =MexicanPesospotprice.KRW=SouthKoreanWonspotprice.PHP=
PhilippinePesospotprice.CNY=ChineseRenminbi spotprice.BRL=BrazilianRealspotprice.
FX=Foreign
Exchange
ST=Shortterm.EM=EmergingMarkets.IMF=InternationalMonetaryFund.FCL=FInancials
Youcannotdirectlyinvestinanindex. 24
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
26/78
S&P500vs.EmergingMarketsEquitiesSeptember10,2012throughSeptember10,2013
25
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
SPX=Standard
&
Poors
500
Index
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
of
500
stocks.
The
index
is
designed
to
measure
performance of
the
broad
domestic
economy
.MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
27/78
ShanghaiComposite
PerformanceRelativetoEmergingMarketEquities
Inference:ChinalessdependentthanBroadEmergingMarketsonGlobalLiquidity
26
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP,September10,2012throughSeptember10,2013
TheShanghaiStockExchangeComposite(SHCOMP)isacapitalizationweightedindextrackingdailypriceperformanceofallAand BshareslistedontheShanghaiStockExchange.This
indexwas
developed
December
19,
1990
with
abase
value
of
100.
MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
28/78
ShanghaiIndexDecember31,2009throughSeptember10,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
SHCOMP=The
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange
Composite
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
tracking
daily
price
performance
of
all
A
and
B
shares
listed
on
the
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange.
This
indexwasdevelopedDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.27
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
29/78
MarketVectorsRussiaETF
PerformanceRelativetoiShares MSCIEmergingMarketsETF
Inference:RussialessdependentthanBroadEMonQELiquidity
28
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP,September10,2012throughSeptember10,2013
RSX=MarketVectorsRussiaETFisanexchangetradedfundincorporatedintheUSA.TheFundseeksinvestmentresultsthatcorrespondtothepriceandyieldoftheMarketVectors
RussiaTotalReturnIndex,whichtrackspubliclytradedcompaniesthataredomiciledinRussia.
EEM=iShares MSCI
Emerging
Markets
ETF
is
an
exchange
traded
fund
incorporated
in
the
USA.
The
ETF
seeks
results
that
correspond
generally
to
the
price
and
yield
performance
of
the
MSCITotalReturnEmergingMarketsIndex.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
30/78
EmergingMarketsRelativetoDevelopedWorldLastFiveYears(123107to9913)
29
Source:Bloomberg
MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEMEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
MXWOIndex=TheMSCIWorldIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.Itwasdevelopedwithabasevalueof100asofDecember31,1969.Itincludesdevelopedworldmarketsanddoesnotincludeemergingmarkets.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
31/78
EmergingMarketsRelativetoDevelopedWorldLastTenYears(91003to91013)
30
Source:Bloomberg
MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
MXWOIndex=TheMSCIWorldIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.Itwasdevelopedwithabasevalueof100asofDecember31,1969.Itincludesdevelopedworldmarketsanddoesnotincludeemergingmarkets.Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
32/78
CRBCommodityIndexYearEnd2007throughSeptember9,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
Note:The
TR/J
CRB
Commodity
Excess
Return
Index
is
an
arithmetic
average
of
commodity
futures
prices
with
monthly
rebalancing.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex. 31
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
33/78
NegativeCorrelation:NewHomeSalesAveragePrice
vs.PriceofGoldBullion
$1,800
$2,000$350,000AverageSalesPriceforNewHousesSold GoldPriceperTroyOunce
July1,
2005
through
July
31,
2013
$1,400
$1,600
$310,000
$330,000
Ounce
ew
Hous
es
$1,000
$1,200
$290,000
dPriceperTroy
SalesPricefor
$400
$600
$250,000
,Gol
Average
$200$230,000
July
05
mber05
arch
06
July
06
mber06
arch
07
July
07
mber07
arch
08
July
08
mber08
arch
09
July
09
mber09
arch
10
July
10
mber10
arch
11
July
11
mber11
arch
12
July
12
mber12
arch
13
July
13
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Source:
DoubleLine
Capital,
St.
Louis
Federal
Reserve,
U.S.
Commerce
DepartmentCorrelation=Statistics:Thesimultaneouschangeinvalueoftwonumericallyvaluedrandomvariables:
32
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
34/78
GoldSpotPricesinUSDollarandIndianRupeeDecember31,1999throughAugust30,2013
33
Source:Bloomberg
GC1Comdty =
Gold
options.
COMEX
division
gold
futures
and
options
provide
an
important
alternative
to
traditional
means
of
investing
in gold
such
as
bullion,
coins,
and
mining
stocks.
The
Indian
Rupee(INR)istheofficialcurrencyofIndia.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
35/78
GoldSpotPriceReturnsinUSDollarsandIndianRupeeDecember31,2010throughSeptember10,2013
34
Source:Bloomberg
GC1Comdty =
Gold
options.
COMEX
division
gold
futures
and
options
provide
an
important
alternative
to
traditional
means
of
investing
in gold
such
as
bullion,
coins,
and
mining
stocks.
The
Indian
Rupee(INR)istheofficialcurrencyofIndia.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
36/78
CrudeOilinIndiaRupeeJune30,1988throughSeptember3,2013
35
Source:Bloomberg
CO1=NCDEXCastorSeedoilgenericfuturescontractpricedinIndianRupee.TheIndianRupee(INR)istheofficialcurrencyofIndia.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
37/78
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
38/78
StillaConsumerBasedEconomy
37
AsofSeptember30,2011..
PCEPersonalConsumptionExpenditures=measurespricechangesinconsumergoodsandservices.Personalconsumptionexpenditures consistoftheactualandimputedexpendituresof
households;themeasureincludesdatapertainingtodurables,nondurablesandservices.Itisessentiallyameasureofgoodsandservicestargetedtowardindividualsandconsumedbyindividuals.
GrossDomestic
Product
(GDP)
=The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountry's
borders
in
aspecific
time
period,
though
GDP
is
usually
calculated
on
an
annualbasis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccurwithinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
39/78
FederalSpendingProjectionthrough2050
38
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOffice.2010 December31,2012Actual.2013 2050Projections.
GrossDomesticProduct (GDP)=Themonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sborders in aspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDPisusuallycalculatedonanannualbasis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccurwithinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
40/78
SocialSecuritySurplus/Deficit
39
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOffice.1987 December31,2012Actual.2013 2035Projections
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
41/78
EntitlementSpendingProjectionthrough2050
40
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOffice.2010Actual.2020 2050Projections.
GrossDomestic
Product
(GDP)
=The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountry's
borders
in
aspecific
time
period,
though
GDP
is
usually
calculated
on
an
annualbasis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccurwithinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
42/78
Entitlementvs.DiscretionarySpending
41
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOfficeasofDecember31,2012.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
43/78
AmountofTaxIncreaseRequiredtoBalanceBudget
42
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOffice.1975 December31,2012Actual.2013 2035Projections
GrossDomestic
Product
(GDP)
=The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountry's
borders
in
aspecific
time
period,
though
GDP
is
usually
calculated
on
an
annualbasis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccurwithinadefinedterritory.
A f T I R i d B l B d
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
44/78
AmountofTaxIncreaseRequiredtoBalanceBudget
43
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOffice.2008Actual.2050 2082Projections.
Taxbracketsserveascutoffpointsforgivenincometaxrates.Categoriesarebasedonindividualfilings.Lowesttaxbracket=$0 $8,375.Highestbracket=$373,650andup.MiddleBracket=
$8,375up
to
$373,650.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
45/78
TaxingtheWealthyisNotEnough
44
Source:TheHeritageFoundation;CongressionalBudgetOfficeasof12/31/12.2035 2050Projections.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
46/78
HeadFakeorRealExpansion?
45
Source:Bloomberg
EuroareaincludestheEUcountries:Austria,Belgium,Bulgaria,Croatia,Cypress,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Finland, France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Ireland,Italy,Latvia,Lithuania,
Luxembourg,Malia,Netherlands,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,SwedenandtheUnitedKingdom.
Purchasing
ManagersIndex
(PMI)
=An
indicator
of
the
economic
health
of
the
manufacturing
sector.
The
PMI
index
is
based
on
five
major
indicators:
new
orders,
inventory
levels,
production,
supplierdeliveriesandtheemployment environment.
GDP Percentage Change Since PreCrisis Peak
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
47/78
GDPPercentageChangeSincePre CrisisPeak
(20072008)
46
Source:TheEconomist;Eurostat
Euroareaincludes:AllotherEUcountriesnotalreadyrepresentedinthechart.Includes:Austria,Bulgaria,Croatia,CzechRepublic,Denmark,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malia,
Poland,Romania,Slovakia,SwedenandtheUnitedKingdom.
GrossDomestic
Product
(GDP)
=The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountry's
borders in a
specific
time
period,
though
GDP
is
usually
calculated
on
an
annual
basis.Itincludesallofprivateandpublicconsumption,governmentoutlays,investmentsandexportslessimportsthatoccur withinadefinedterritory.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
48/78
SpanishHousingMarket
47
S i h D li i
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
49/78
SpanishDelinquencies
Therealestatecrashhaspromptedbankstorefinanceorrestructure
208billioneuros ($275billionUSdollars)ofloans.Badloansasa
proportionof
total
loans
reached
arecord
11.6%
in
June.
Bank
of
Spain
datashow.LendingbySpanishbankstononfinancialcorporationsfell
1.3%inJulyfromJuneandhasdeclinedalmost10%thisyear,
48
. .
monthlycontractionsinPortugalandGreece.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
50/78
GermanSubsidization
Greecehas
received
two
bailout
packages
totaling
about
240
billion
euros ($318
billionUSdollars).Thecountrystotalannualeconomicoutputis186.2billion
euros ($247billionUSdollars).About22billioneuros ($29.17billionUSdollars)
49
o erescue un sares o epa ,w oneuros . on
dollars)dueinOctober.Athirdpackageislikelytobesmaller.TheIMFhas
calculatedafinancinggapof10.9billioneuros ($14.45billionUSdollars)tocover
theperiod
through
2015.
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
51/78
TABIVHousingandMBSMarketTrends
30 Year U S Mortgage Rates
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
52/78
30YearU.S.MortgageRatesDecember31,2007throughSeptember9,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,Bankrate.com
ILM3NAVG=TheOvernightNationalAverageoftheU.S.30yearTreasuryinterestrate.Theyhelpconsumersseethemovementof ratesdaytoday.Subjecttoonedaylag. 51
51
Mortgage Refinancing Index
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
53/78
MortgageRefinancingIndexSeptember5,2003throughAugust30,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
MortgageRefinancingIndexasmeasuredbythe MortgageBankersAssociation.Reflectsthenumberofapplicationsforrefinance.Notallapplicationsareaccepted.
Aninvestment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
52
Home Price Index Levels and YearOverYear Change
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
54/78
HomePriceIndexLevelsandYear Over YearChangeJanuary1,2000andJanuary1,2001throughMarch31,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,CaseShiller
53
ase er ome r ce n ex scompr se o pr cec angesw n e o ow ngsu se o me ropo anmar e s: y n ex os on, cago, enver, as egas, os nge es, am , ew
York,SanDiego,SanFranciscoandWashingtonDC.Inadditiontothe10CityIndexitincludes:Atlanta,Charlotte,Cleveland,Dallas,Detroit,Minneapolis,Phoenix,Portland,Seattle,andTampa.
CoreLogicNationalHousingPriceIndex(HPI)=CoreLogicisaleadingproviderofinformationandanalytics.Thisindexcovers 6,208zipcodes,572statisticalareasand1,027countieslocatedinall50
statesandDistrictofColumbia.Itisanationalaverage.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
53
ABXAAA071Index
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
55/78
January1,2010throughSeptember10,2013
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
TheABX071AAAIndexisabasketofhomeequity.Constitutedfromreferenceobligationsissuedby20issuersofresidentialmortgagebackedsecurities.
Aninvestment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
54
NonAgency RMBS 60++ Delinquency Rate
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
56/78
Non AgencyRMBS60++DelinquencyRateJanuary31,2005throughJuly31,2013
50%
60%
Prime
AltA
36.1%
40%
inquenc
ies
ghJuly2013 Subprime
21.1%
20%
30%
0+
+SeriousDel
ua
ry2005thro
9.9%
10%
6Jan
0%
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
57/78
Non AgencyRMBSConditionalDefaultRateJanuary31,2005throughJuly31,2013
16%
18%
Prime
AltA
10%
12%
14%
ghJuly
2013
6.4%
7.0%
6%
8%CDR
uary2005thro
3.4%2%
4%Ja
0%
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
-
7/29/2019 9-10-13 What if Webcast
58/78
January31,2005throughJuly31,2013
71.9%80%
90%
Prime
AltA
60%
70%
uly2013
Subprime
42.6%
.
30%
40%
50%
LossSeverity
2005through
10%
20%Januar
0%
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.
PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
Subprimedefined
as
FICO
725andLTV725andLTV>=75
Subprimedefined
as
FICO