9 priority FfD commitments
@mcarthur
SITE - Stockholm School of EconomicsFfD Conference11 May 2015
Source: World Bank 2014
Global extreme poverty rate (%)
Child survival (U5MR)
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved …”
7.5 million additional lives saved
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”
Rates of progress
Source: JW McArthur. 2014. “Seven Million Lives Saved…”
Sources of global growth
Source: CIPS Development Study Group. 2015. Based on WDI 2015.
3 Big Breakthroughs
9 Recommendations
#1
Basic needs budget
$300 per capita (PPP)or
10% of GNI (if >$3000)
AIC vs GNI per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”
Lowest AIC per capita
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”
#2
Domestic Resource Mobilization
½ the gap to 20% of GDP by 2025
Average non-grant revenue in 2010 (%GDP)
Note: Unweighted averages among available observations. Source: JW McArthur calculations based on WDI 2015
#3
Middle-income financing “trough”
MDB system review by 2016
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …”
#4
~ $1 Trillion gap for
infrastructure & decarbonization
no silver bullet
peak urban population growth
#5
Timetable for ODA to LDCs
> 0.15-20% of GNI by 2020
DAC DonorODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)Absolute Value
(2005 $Mns)
1 Luxembourg 0.38% 137
2 Denmark 0.33% 955
3 Sweden 0.31% 1,449
4 Norway 0.30% 1,264
5 Ireland 0.27% 425
6 Belgium 0.22% 988
7 United Kingdom 0.20% 4,362
8 Netherlands 0.20% 1,401
9 Finland 0.19% 417
Already there (2010 - 2012 average)
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.
DAC DonorODA to LDCs
(% of GNI)Absolute Value
(2005 $Mns)10 Portugal 0.13% 255
11 France 0.12% 2,960
12 Canada 0.12% 1,767
13 Iceland 0.11% 11
14 Germany 0.11% 3,389
15 Switzerland 0.11% 607
16 Australia 0.10% 1,222
17 New Zealand 0.09% 115
18 Austria 0.08% 299
19 Spain 0.08% 1,045
20 United States 0.07% 9,947
21 Japan 0.07% 3,735
22 Italy 0.06% 1,136
23 Korea 0.04% 436
24 Czech Republic 0.04% 71
25 Greece 0.04% 91
26 Slovenia 0.03% 14
27 Slovak Republic 0.03% 21
28 Poland 0.03% 109
Not yet there (2010 - 2012 average)
Source: Kharas and McArthur. 2015. “Nine Priority Commitments …” based on OECD-DAC online statistics 2014.
#6
Global Skills Gap
put the “G” in GPE
Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18
Source: UNESCO. 2015. EFA Global Monitoring Report Policy Paper 18
#7
Climate Finance Accounting
ODA ≠ mitigation
“climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
• Much “climate” ODA is for mitigation in UMICs
• Pulls aid away from LDCs
Source: Kharas and McArthur. (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”
“climate”
True “ODA”
“climate”
All “ODA”
TODAY
RECOMMEND "AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
"AID" ADAPTATION MITIGATION
Source: Kharas and McArthur (2015 rev) “Nine Priority Commitments …”
#8
Business performance metrics
“A timetable to fair play”
GASDAP* by 2020
Source: Sustainability Accounting Standards Board. 2015. 101 Briefing Presentation
#9
LDC/LIC Private Investment
LDC closed-end investment fund
FDI vs ODA in sub-Saharan Africa
IV.
Post-script:
Complexities of inequality
Note: ODA is net disbursements net of debt relief; Source: OECD-DAC database 2013
Note: Aid is ODA net disbursements net of debt relief; Sources: J McArthur calculations based on OECD-DAC database 2013; BEA 2013; NYS Controller 2013
thank you
@mcarthur