December 14, 2015

95 Express Lanes Update

Presentation to the FAMPO Policy Committee

Original 95/395 Express Lane Plan

• Called “ Virginia HOT Lanes” • New/Upgraded 56 Mile Facility • Massaponax to Pentagon/Eads St

– I-95 – 47 Miles – I-395 – 9 Miles

• About Half Actually Built To Date – I-95 – 26 Miles – I-395 – 2 Miles

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Governor’s 95 Express Lane Announcement

• Public Announcement on 11/24/2015

• Two New Express Lane Projects – Add 9 miles to I-95/395 Express Lanes

• 7 Mile Extension along I-395 in Northern Virginia • 2 Mile Extension along I-95 in Stafford

– New Total Length Will be 37 miles • I-95: 28 Miles • I-395: 9 Miles

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I-395 Express Lanes Extension

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I-95 Express Lane Extension in Stafford

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• Two Mile Extension

• One Reversible lane built for potential conversion to two lanes

• Project Start in 2016

• Project Completion in 2018

• Project Website: https://www.expresslanes.com/uploads/1000/938-95_Operational_Improvements_Fact_Sheet.pdf

Review of Toll and Revenue Study for I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project

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Study Background • Completed by VDOT consultant Halcrow in 2009 • Covered about 56 miles of I-95/395 from the Pentagon area in Arlington

to the Massaponax area in Spotsylvania

• Used data from the 2000 to 2006 timeframe to forecast to 2071 • Used Washington MPO Modeling Tool for analysis

• Initially used to support 95/395 Express Lane projects. In August, 2015,

however, this study was used as justification by the state for not moving ahead with the Southern Section of the 95 Express Lanes project

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State interpretation of Study Findings Study does not support 95 Express lane improvements south of

Rte 610: Garrisonville Rd

1. From 8/21/15 FLS Article “Studies indicate that toll revenue won’t support the cost to extend the express lanes” …

“it would cost $30 million to $40 million a mile to add the lanes, and that doesn’t include a bridge that would have to be built between the current spans across the Rappahannock River.”

2. From October 19th FAMPO Meeting:

• Northern Section would generate approximately six times the revenue of Southern Section • Construction cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion • Operation cost of Southern Section would be approximately $1 Billion over a 60 year

period. This calculation is based on Transurban’s current operation costs.

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Study Toll Sections

• Six Sections • Northern Section = 4 section; A to D • Southern Section = 2 sections; E to F • Breakpoint between Northern and Southern Section at Garrisonville Rd

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Summary of Study Results 1 • Table 7.1 - pg. 54 – Toll Revenue can be maximized in 2030

with a minimum speed of 55 mph compared to 45 or 65 mph

• Finding supports current minimum Express Lane Speed

Threshold of 55 mph

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Summary of Study Results 2: Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville

18 Garrisonville

Study Results 2 continued: Toll Rates Decline South of Garrisonville

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Garrisonville

Study Results 2 continued: Transactions Decline South of Garrisonville

20 Garrisonville

But Observed Study Traffic Data from 2001 to 2006 Does Not Show an I-95 Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville

21 Garrisonville

And 2000 to 2014 Daily Traffic Trends For I-95 Corridor: I-495 (Springfield Interchange) to Hanover County

Does Not Show a Traffic Dropoff at Garrisonville

22 Garrisonville Massaponax Garrisonville Massaponax

Low Growth 2000 to 2014

High Growth 2000 to 2014

High Growth 2000 to 2014

Low Growth 2000 to 2014

NOVA Hanover NOVA Hanover

Why Does Study Analysis Show a Significant Dropoff in Toll Revenue South of Garrisonville?

• Due to Limitations of using Washington Model to Model FAMPO region 1. Northern part of FAMPO only included to better model Washington MPO area and include entire Washington Urbanized area which includes Northern Stafford and ends near Garrisonville 2. Only covers about 50% of FAMPO Model area

3. Does not include most of Spotsylvania

4. Insensitive to Growth South of Massaponax

5. Model known to underestimate traffic between NOVA and Fredericksburg

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Study Report Documents Model Problem where Trips Underforecast between FAMPO region and NOVA

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1. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data was inadequate for 2005 base model adjustment 2. Adjustment based on 2000 CTPP data did not properly account for future growth in travel between FAMPO Counties and NOVA from 2005 to 2071

Summary

1. Study incorrectly underforecasts Toll & Revenue from 95/395 Express Lane improvements south of Garrisonville due to limitations in the study modeling tool

2. Study based on old data from 2000 to 2006 timeframe

3. Study cannot be used to justify no need for 95 Express Lane improvements south of Garrisonville

4. A New Toll & Revenue Study is needed for 95 Express Lanes Southern Section

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