Technical

Analysis

Review

03-04-2015

Review_03/04/15 - ( Rating - 7/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee is Depreciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market / AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is

+ve / Bonds is -Ve (--) Big Picture is Positive.

| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Neutral | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |

Indian Rupee - ( 3/4 ) Rupee Breakout from Symmetrical triangle Pattern. $ is in a

Bull Maket v/s Rupee Depreciation.Rupee had Retracement from Top to 61.37 on 03-

08-2014. Rupee is consolidating into a Range at Demand Level from Weekly

Timeframe.A Breakout from Range is awaited

Supply Zone at 1) 69.228 (68.860) 68.578 2) 64.074 (63.669) 63.206

Demand Zone are at 1) 61.154 (60.720) 60.373 & 2) 59.368 (59.044) 58.688

It is notable that the entire activity of previous 4 Months is contained into the range of

August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of that August candle.On Daily

TF the price has broken on Upside. It is Notable that $ Index has Given a Breakout

from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Trouble for

Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the

Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).

Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Daily Chart is in Uptrend - Highest Low is 7723.

This was a Normal Range Week.The Bears won the week as prices closed in bottom

third of the Range below the Previous week close & exposed the inability of Bulls to

Retest the Supply Zone on Weekly Timeframe.

The Higher High, Higher Low Bar Range has been broken on Daily Weekly & Monthly

Timeframe - Weekly | DZ - 8160 - 7961 + 7831 - 7723 | SZ 8626 - 8588

Monthly Chart has 3 Days to Go & Engulfing bar action on Monthly could mean deep

correction. The Demand Zone on Monthly is near 7721 - 7422 & Below it 6730 - 6650

Dimensions

Supply Levels - 9117 - 9042 + 8985 - (8950) - 8914

Demand Levels are (8729 - 8689) + (8513 - 8451) + (8257 - 8236) + (8118 - 8084) + FZ

7890 + (7906 - 7857) + SHFZ (7840 - 7817) + (7731 - 7695) + (7676 - 7654) + (7625 -

7598) + (7564 - 7532) + (7420 - 7360) + (7130 - 7080) + RN 7000 + (6860 - 6820) +

(6690 6640) + 6354 (6228.45) 6187.80 + 6133 (6100) 6102 + 5807 (5791) 5780 +

5755.28 to 5714.63 + 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 + 5276.86 - 5211.20 + 5128.09

(5079.67) 5032.70 + 4842.27 4770.73

Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot Highs of 6154 - 6134 is broken on

the Up side & retesting the Trendline break from above,Measured up move of Break

of Ascending Triangle is Very high at 10043.

Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Apr series Nifty future shed 5.43 lakh

position in Open Interest and this accounts to -2.86 % of Total Open Interest in Apr

series.The Nifty Apr series is trading at 46.85 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative

cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net shed 8.87 lakh position in open

interest and this accounts to -4.48 % of Total Open Interest in all series and

cumulatively trading in average premium of 90.38 Rs to Underlying.

Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Apr/06/2015-NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(8633.1) is

currently in SIDEWAYS trend.The open interest is not increasing with trend so be

careful and discount of share is also increasing so buyer be cautious.

At current price strike the activity is tilted to call side and ratio is still strong Yesterday

Nifty Put option has added 477.77 lakh position and Nifty call option has added

497.65 lakh position in open interest on cumulative basis

NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 0.98 & (Money Wise) - 0.18

Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)

SMA Trin is Between 1.0 & 0.9 indicated reduced Strength in Uptrend & space for

more stocks to Decline even tho Nifty is Rising,The series of Higher Lows in SMA10 of

TRIN can be Restored.

Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into Life time High

has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are forced to cut their

Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S & Monthly Ascending

Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be favourable on Bear

Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve

TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 8342.15 ) Nifty could now build Short Position

due to Sharp Pullback Rally.. Nifty's 56 Day Cycle

(09-03-2015 was a Bullish Pin Bar Up Day) (Next Date 03-05-2015 Expect Uptrend )-->

Mid month Reversal ( 12-03-2015 was a Narrow Range Up Day )(Next Date 16-04-

2015) Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday (20-03-2015 was Normal Range Bear bar

Day) (Next Date 19-06-2015)

P & F Chart Low Pole Reversal Pattern occurred on 30-03-2015. 1) Rare Double top

& Inverse H&S Neckline Breakout @ 6200 --- 2) New Support 8700 & Resistance Life

Highs 9100

Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks

advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even

reverse.

AD Line is Now falling with increase in Nifty, indicates decreased strength in Up trend

& But Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive for Uptrend.

Midcaps are Raising with declining Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels

) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Little Momentum.

Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (1/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline

Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty

TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0

(More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that

are Declining

3 Y 10 Y 30 Y

NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs

versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs

indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive

There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside

for a 2nd Time indicating weekness in Up Trend.The "Peaks of stocks Hitting 52

Week High" Should increase for strong Up Trend

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied

volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor

& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with

Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will

move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index

VIX is below 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has increased with Up Trend

indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....

Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period

= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)

All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. InCorrect Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI < 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from

Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed

by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than

corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33% Weight Group 2 - Natural Gas + Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight Group 3 - Others -> 25% Weight

Commodities (Negative Correlation) $CRB is in Accumulation Phase, Commodities

Crude Has Broken Down, Gold is Pushed down as $ Moved up But Copper has

regained Lost Ground ... & Geo Political Tensions are high,Now Commodities are to

Resume uptrend if $ fails to resume uptrend & continues to Decline

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is inclining Currency post the

bounce from Demand Zone & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone.

Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution) after

Fed's Stance of Tapering in QE & Budget Deal, Hints at Liquidity Reversal is on Hold

(Market is Build Gains on Good News) ..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode

.. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & Other

Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take advantage of investment

in safe Govt Secured Bond

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World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow with raised

concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has Fresh Break Down

(Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News Markets are now Ferouscliously

Selling.Europe CAG are Near Resistance DAX & FTSE have given Fresh Break down

(Global Markets are Now breaking out of Resistance. Syncronisation in Breakouts is

seen after Creating consolidation Patterns.But Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates

are increasing ..All Equity Markets except EMs are on Risk ON Mode

NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any

investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.