9m 2019/q3 2019 results presentation - the navigator...
TRANSCRIPT
October 29th 2019
9M 2019/Q3 2019
Results Presentation
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<<
Executive Directors
João Castello Branco
António Redondo
Fernando Araújo
Nuno Santos
João Paulo Oliveira
Investor Relations Joana Appleton
PARTICIPATION
OutlookMarket &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
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9M 2019/Q3 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
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9M 2019 HIGHLIGHTS <<
Increase in turnover (+1.8%) due to higher paper prices and higher volumes of pulp and tissue sold.
Recurrent EBITDA declined 11.2% YoY pressured by lower pulp prices, lower paper volume and higher production costs
Free cash flow remains strong at €125.4 million
Total Capex of € 88.3 million, mainly recurring & environment
Dividend payment of € 200 million in April and acquisition of owns shares totalling € 18.4 million
In millions € 9M2019
9M2018
%CHANGE 19/18
Turnover 1274.2 1252.3 1.8%
RecurringEBITDA
300.2 338.1 -11.2%
RecurringEBITDA /Sales
23.6% 27.0% -3.4 pp
CAPEX 88.3 148.4 -60.1
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
125.4 93.5 31.9
RemuneratedNetDebt/EBITDA
1.87 1.65 0.22
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MAIN QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
435 439 422 432 420
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Turnover (M €)
115 115 105 102 93
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
EBITDA (without pellets) (M €)
9
50
10
91
25
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Free Cash Flow (M €)71 68
33 3620
Q32018
Q42018
Q12019
Q22019
Q32019
Capex (M €)
In spite of significant increase in pulp sales, turnover was slightly down in Q3 vs Q2 due to lower paper volumes and pulp prices
EBITDA in Q3 impacted by lower pulp and paper prices
Free Cash Flow remains strong, albeit lower than Q2
Capex in Q3 of € 20 million, mainly maintenance and recurring
YTD 20181 252 M€
YTD 20191 274 M€
YTD 2019300 M€
YTD 2018338 M€
YTD 2019125 M€
YTD 201893 M€
YTD 201988 M€
YTD 2018148 M€
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<<9M 2019 Recurring EBITDA
Increase in volumes is offset by increase in costs (Energy, Wood and Chemicals)
A B CPrice impact flat as paper price increase was offset by pulp decline
Positive volumes for pulp and tissue outbalance negative impact of paper volumes
Negative impact of variable costs mainly due to price increases in energy, wood, chemicals;
Improvement in external fiber and personnel costs
338300
2
Volume Costs
-1
Rec. R18 Price
-34
Other* R19
-6
-38(-11%)
* includes bio assets and land sales
A CB
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
UWF
Pulp
Tissue
Electricity unit cost:
Natural gas unit cost
OBA – DAS price
EUR/USD
Fixed costs
External fibers
M2 program estimated impact on EBITDA of 14 M€
100 new initiatives of cost reduction since the beginning of
the year, with the following examples impacting EBITDA:
• Optimization of wood consumption
• Optimization of maritime and road logistics
• Global negotiation on the acquisition of chemical products
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<<CONTINUOUS FOCUS ON COST EFICIENCY
Zero Based Budget - reduction of fixed costs: running costs &
overheads in non-industrial areas
50 initiatives identified corresponding to 10M€ savings
OutlookMarket &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
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9M 2019/Q3 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
PIX Europe
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<<SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION IN PULP
PRICES SINCE END 2018
Last PIX (W43/2019):700 USD/ton (-31%) YTD 2019
Last PIX (W43/2019):629 €/ton (-30%) YTD 2019
USD/ton BHKP EUR/ton BHKP
201620152014 2017 2018 2019
Average Pulp price in YTD 2019:
- 909 $/ton 2019
- 808 €/ton 2019
Average Pulp price for 2012 - 2017 :
- 759 $/ton
- 634 €/ton300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1 11 21 31 41 51 9 19 29 39 49 6 16 26 36 46 4 14 24 34 44 2 12 22 32 42 52 10 20 30 40 50
Eur
/ To
n
USD
/ To
n
Week
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RECAP ON THE PULP MARKET• During Q4 2018, market pulp demand experienced a significant decrease, falling 1.7 million tons YoY. China
accounted for 90% of this reduction and Europe followed 2/3 months later. With Chinese buyers reducing pulppurchases, prices began to fall and producers stock started to build-up at Chinese (& European) ports
• From Q4 2018 to end Q1 2019, Chinese big pulp buyers reduced significantly their purchases, forcing a spiral ofprice reduction in pulp prices (YTD ~ -28%); producers stocks continued to increase while buyers used asignificant part of their own inventories
• Currently, demand in China seems to be back to normal and growing; there are production cuts (maintenanceand market driven) from major pulp suppliers in Latin America and Asia announced for Q3 and Q4
• Pulp production costs are increasing due to wood and chemicals; high-cost hardwood producers in China are nowsignificantly pressured by lower pulp prices
• With buyer stocks at low levels, restocking should occur upon price growth expectations
<<
With no new pulp supply forecasted until mid-2021, medium term fundamentals remain sound, but could be negatively impacted by economic and political instability
Source: PPPC; The Navigator CompanySource: PPPC; The Navigator Company 10
UPDATE ON PAPER MARKET <<
YTD August 2019
UWF CWF UME CME
-2.6% -8.9% -11.2% -10.5%
Avg L5Y -0.3% -3.1% -4.0% -5.8%
• Recent decline of P&W demand well above trend, indicating not only the effects of economic cooldown but also an overall destocking across the entire supply chain.
• UWF remains resilient when compared to other grades, with demand falling significantly in August (after a small pick-up in July)
• Demand for UWF in Q3 experienced a particularly severe drop in Europe of -5.2% and USA of -7.8% (vs Q3 2018) well above levels recorded in previous years
Global paper demand impacted by economics and destocking
-6.3%
Total
-2.3%
Global Printing & Writing Demand
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52
Eur
/Ton
Week
2014 2018 20192015 2016 2017
Source: FOEX
EUROPEAN MARKET PAPER PRICE – A4 B-COPY
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PAPER PRICES IN STABLE TREND
Last PIX (W43 2019):890 €/ton (-1,6% YTD)
Average A4 B-COPY price in YTD 2019:
- 909 €/ton 2019 (-0.9% YTD)
Average A4 B-COPY price (2012-2017):
- 833 €/ton
Av. 2016:823 €/ton(Var. W1-52: -3.5%)
Av. 2017:815 €/ton(Var. W1-52: +4.1%)
Av. 2018:873 €/ton(+9.0%)
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Av. YTD 2019:909 €/ton(+5,8%)
A v e r a g e p r i c e i n 2 0 1 9 a b o v e a v e r a g e p r i c e i n t h e l a s t 1 0 y e a r s
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 5 13 21 29 37 45 53 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52 8 16 24 32 40 48 4 12 20 28 36 44 52
Eur
/Ton
Week
2014 2018 20192015 2016 2017
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UWF MARKET CONDITIONS
D E M A N D
P U L P P R I C E
Paper demand falling above trend in 2019, facing a pipeline destocking; UWF continues to show the highest resilience among the major graphic papers;
Hardwood pulp prices continue to fall in Europe but seem to have stabilized in China
Several producers announced conversion / shutdowns of UWF in 2019 in Europe (-280 kton), US (-822 kton), Asia (-882 kton) and Latin America (-180 kton), partially offsetting new capacities entering the market; strong momentum in Chinese paper market with price recovery and conversions of paper machines from Containerboard to UWF paper
Even though pix price avg. 2019 YTD is still 5% above 2018 (908 € in 2019 vs 864 € in 2018), paper prices are under pressure;
B A L A N C ES / D
P R I C EL E V E L
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<<NAVIGATOR PAPER & PULP PERFORMANCE
PAPER PERFOMANCE
• UWF sales volume decreased 5% 9M 2019 vs 9m 2018, and 1% from Q2 to Q3.
• Several events impacted UWF production (slower ramp-up of heavyweights production and strikes at PM4 in Setúbal)but production was also managed by Navigator to match current market situation. Maintenance stoppage at F.fozoccurred in September 2019 impacting Q3 (impacting Q4 in 2018)
• Average price for 9M 2019 was 2.7% above 9M 2018 and average Q3 vs Q2 price adjusted downwards mainly due toproduct mix
• Navigator paper sales turnover down 2.3% 9M 2019 vs 9M 2018 to € 905 million and 5.6% to 294 million in Q3 vs Q22019 .
PULP PERFORMANCE
• Pulp production impacted by maintenance stoppages in Cacia, Setúbal and Figueira da Foz, partially offset by lowerpaper integration.
• Pulp sales in volume increased 21% 9M2019 vs 9M 2018 and 48% in Q3 vs Q2 2019; pulp turnover increased 5% YoYand 16% in Q3 from Q2 2019 with higher sales volume offsetting price decrease
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GROWTH IN THE TISSUE BUSINESS
Portugal+3.3%
Spain+3.7%
• In tissue business, Demand continues to present interesting growth rates: 3.3% in Portugal and3.7% in Spain (between 2017 – 2019e), even in a context of new production starting in the IberianPeninsula to come to the markets:
• Spain: SOFIDEL; ICT; LUCART; G-C
• Portugal: NAVIGATOR
• UK largest net importer in Europe, softness is a key parameter in PA.
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<<GROWTH IN THE TISSUE BUSINESS
• Global volume of tissue sold increased to 74 kton (64% YoY), sustained by new capacity in Aveiro; sales volumewas 14% higher in Q3 vs Q2 2019;
• Sales turnover increased to € 102 million, with significant growth in converted products and also in parent reels
• Even tough price improved YoY for both converted and reels, the higher percentage of reels in global sales due toramp-up impacted negatively average price for the period
35% Consumer
40% Away-from-Home+C&C
25% Parent Reels
37% Portugal
28% Spain
35% Extra-Iberia
Revenue by segment
(2019)
Revenue by geography
(2019)
88 59
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12
CAPEX Maintenance & recurringcapex
Environment &Regulatory
Expansion/DevelopmentCapex*
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CAPEX OF € 88 MILLION ( V S 1 4 8 € M I L L I O N )
M €
CAPEX
* Includes Po3 + Tissue Cacia + Heavy Weights
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<<ROADMAP TO A CARBON NEUTRAL COMPANY2035
1st Company in Portugal committed to achieve Carbon Neutrality 15
years ahead of schedule
158 M € in plannedinvestment towards
offseting carbon emissions
Forests managed by Navigator represent a
carbon stock equivalent to 1.5 M
cars driving the Earth’s circumference
Main investments:
• New Biomass boiler at FF• Biomass in Lime Kilns• Combustion optimization
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<<FREE CASH IMPROVEMENT
Free Cash Flow evolved positively to € 125 M and compares favorably with adjusted FCF of € 93 million in 2018
M €
88
1624
29
3 125
248
37.3
Operating CashFlow
CAPEX Inventories Clients State & PublicEntities
Suppliers &others
Other Free Cash Flow
YTD 2018268 M€
YTD 201893 M€
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<<NET DEBT INCREASED TO € 776 MILLION
641 617
738 742693
559
740 732683 677
796 776
1.6 1.61.8 1.9 1.7
1.3
1.7 1.6 1.5 1.51.8 1.9
Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019
Net debt Net debt/EBITDA
M €
Remunerated net debt increased € 93million vs year-end 2018, after paying €200M in dividends and acquiring € 18 M in own shares.
Current Average Cost of Debt (September 2019):
1.70%
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Debt Rate Profile(September 2019):
Fixed Variable
83% 17%
CONSERVATIVE DEBT PROFILETaking advantage of favorable market conditions, Navigator is renegotiating debt,
seeking to diversify sources of funds and to extend average tenure.
Debt maturity profileTotal debt: € 850.6 million
Average maturity: 3.7 years
6.6 13.2
226.5
50.6
288.1
88.1
177.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-2028
9M 2019/Q3 2019 RESULTS PRESENTATION
OutlookMarket &
Group Performance
Main Highlights
01 02 03
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iPULP PAPER• Hardwood pulp prices continue
to fall in Europe, but seem to have stabilized in China; in the case for softwood, there are signs that prices have started to recover in Q4 in China
• With demand picking up and without any new significant increase in capacity until H2 2021, prices should recover in 2020
TISSUE• Demand continues to
present interesting growth rates, even in a context of new capacity additions
• Group will further consolidate its new operations and increase in global sales as the industrial operations matures.
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After a record 2018, 2019 has proven to be a challenging year
Adverse market conditions and inflation in some key production cost factors have pressured results
Focus on cost efficiency measures intensified, with new fixed cost measures for 2020
• Several production shutdowns and conversions announced for 2019 should improve global demand/supply balance;
• UWF prices under more pressure but remain resilient;
• Evolution of EUR/USD remains key
Outlook & Challenges for Q4 2019
This presentation is intended to provide a general overview of The Navigator Company S.A.’s businessand does not purport to deal with all aspects and details regarding The Navigator Company S.A..Accordingly, no representation, undertaking or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by The NavigatorCompany S.A. or any of its subsidiaries’ undertakings, affiliates, directors, officers, employees oradvisors or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of theinformation or opinions contained in this presentation or of the views given or implied or any othermaterial discussion in connection with this presentation.
This presentation has been prepared by The Navigator Company S.A. for information purposes only. TheNavigator Company S.A. or any of its affiliates, directors, officers, employees or advisers or any otherperson shall not have any liability whatsoever (including in case of omission, negligence or otherwise)for any losses, errors or omissions howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of thispresentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith or with respect to their relianceupon the completeness and accuracy of any such information, as well as any damages resulting hereof.
DISCLAIMER
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October 29th 2019
9M 2019/Q3 2019
Results Presentation