9th international icsi conference: budapest 2008 eu demographics: living more and reproducing less...

9th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 20089th International iCSi Conference: Budapest 2008

EU demographics: EU demographics: living more and living more and

reproducing lessreproducing less

Jitka RychtaříkováJitka RychtaříkováCharles University in Prague, Faculty of ScienceCharles University in Prague, Faculty of ScienceDepartment of Demography and GeodemographyDepartment of Demography and Geodemography

Albertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech RepublicAlbertov 6, 128 43 Praha 2, Czech Republic

ttel.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: rychtael.: 420 221 951 420 e-mail: [email protected]@natur.cuni.cz


José Manuel Barroso:José Manuel Barroso:

Demographic changeDemographic change is one of the three major forces is one of the three major forces now remodeling Europe, now remodeling Europe,

alongside globalization and alongside globalization and technological change.technological change.


Reproducing less, Reproducing less, living longer,living longer,

and will age fastand will age fast


StructureStructure Recent fertility change and current fertility Recent fertility change and current fertility

patternspatterns New phenomena: low fertility, postponement, New phenomena: low fertility, postponement,

extramarital fertilityextramarital fertility Country classification based on current Country classification based on current

fertility patternsfertility patterns Mortality changeMortality change Population ageing as the outcome of fertility Population ageing as the outcome of fertility

change change Future fertility prospectsFuture fertility prospects


Shift toward rare and late chilbearingShift toward rare and late chilbearing

Profound Profound fertilityfertility declinedecline ha hass occurred in occurred in Northern and Northern and Western European societies Western European societies since the mid since the mid 1960s, was over by the end of 1960s, was over by the end of the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has the 1980s in Southern Europe, and has emerged since the beginning of the 1990s emerged since the beginning of the 1990s in Eastern Europe.in Eastern Europe.

Late fertilityLate fertility starts being a common widely starts being a common widely accepted pattern. accepted pattern.


Variations in TFR over timeVariations in TFR over time in 30 European countries in 30 European countries

simple reproductionsimple reproduction

low fertilitylow fertility

lowest low fertilitylowest low fertility


Two country groups in 2006: Two country groups in 2006: just below replacement level and very low fertilityjust below replacement level and very low fertility

1,241,271,311,311,311,321,321,331,341,351,351,351,381,391,401,411,431,471,551,641,651,701,831,841,841,851,901,932,002,051,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2,0

2,1

SlovakiaPoland

LithuaniaRomaniaSloveniaGermany

Italy

Czech Republic

HungaryLatvia

PortugalSpain

BulgariaGreeceAustria

Malta

Switzerland

CyprusEstoniaBelgium

LuxembourgNetherlands

DenmarkFinland

United Kingdom

SwedenNorwayIrelandFranceIceland

TFR (Total fertility rate in 2006)

simple reproduction

lowest low fertility

low fertility


Low fertility trapLow fertility trap: : two critical tresholdstwo critical tresholds

Low fertility: TFR less than 1,5Low fertility: TFR less than 1,5 Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3Lowest low fertility: TFR less than 1,3

P. McDonald (2005)P. McDonald (2005): : it is much more difficult for it is much more difficult for aa country to raise fertility when the total fertility country to raise fertility when the total fertility rate has fallen below the critical level of 1rate has fallen below the critical level of 1,,5 5 children per woman. children per woman.

The situation becomes even more desperate The situation becomes even more desperate when the lowest low fertility (below 1when the lowest low fertility (below 1,,3) is 3) is reachedreached..


Fertility postponement a partFertility postponement a part of a postponement transition of a postponement transition

Longer educationLonger education Building a professional careerBuilding a professional career Reliable contraceptionReliable contraception ART treatmentART treatment „solving“ also problems „solving“ also problems

of postponed parenthoodof postponed parenthood

Factors behindFactors behind


Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility Younger age does not more mean a higher fertility

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

BulgariaRomaniaLithuania

LatviaEstoniaSlovakia

PolandIceland

Czech Republic

HungaryAustria

PortugalCyprus

BelgiumIrelandNorway

SloveniaFinland

DenmarkGreeceFrance

Sweden

Italy

NetherlandsLuxembourg

Germany

Spain

Switzerland

United Kingdom

Mean age at first childbirth in 2005


Late parenthood (motherhood): Late parenthood (motherhood): miscellaneous impact on fertility levels

North and WestNorth and West of Europe: a higher age at the of Europe: a higher age at the first childbearing does not imply low fertility first childbearing does not imply low fertility levels.levels.

East and SouthEast and South of Europe show a „negative of Europe show a „negative correlation“ between an increasing age of correlation“ between an increasing age of mothers and final low fertility levels, thus mothers and final low fertility levels, thus confirming a classical theory as regards confirming a classical theory as regards the relationship between age at first childbirth the relationship between age at first childbirth and final fertility rate.and final fertility rate.


2006: Cumulative age-specific fertility rates; (country order according to TFR)

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

SlovakiaLithuaniaPoland

SloveniaRomania

Italy

Germany

Czech Republic

HungarySpain

PortugalLatvia

BulgariaGreeceAustria

Malta

Switzerland



Denmark

United Kingdom

FinlandSwedenNorwayIrelandFranceIceland

-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35+


Another new phenomenonAnother new phenomenon

Increase in extra-marital birthsIncrease in extra-marital births

Accelerating in last decadesAccelerating in last decades Reflecting cultural settingsReflecting cultural settings


Extra-marital births per 100 births:Extra-marital births per 100 births:uneven increase over timeuneven increase over time

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GreeceCyprus

Switzerland

Italy

PolandMalta

BelgiumSpain

Slovakia

Luxembourg

RomaniaLithuaniaGermanyPortugalIreland

Czech Republic

Hungary

Netherlands

AustriaFinlandLatvia

United Kingdom

DenmarkSloveniaFrance

BulgariaNorwaySwedenEstoniaIceland

1960

1980

2006


Variations in share of extramarital births Variations in share of extramarital births over time in 30 European countriesover time in 30 European countries


An increase of extra-marital births An increase of extra-marital births does not mean a rising cohabitation does not mean a rising cohabitation as an alternative to family legalized as an alternative to family legalized

by marriage but more oftenby marriage but more oftenmeans a lone motherhoodmeans a lone motherhood

Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy, Countries with low nonmarital fertility ratios (Italy, Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall Spain, Belgium) tend to have also low overall childhood exposure to single parenting. childhood exposure to single parenting.

Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital Parental cohabitation accounts for much nonmarital fertility in Northern Europe.fertility in Northern Europe.P.Heuveline, J.T. Timberlake, F.F.Furstenberg: Shifting childrearing to single mothers: Results from 17 Western countries, Population and Development Review, 29, 2003, 1


A country classification according to A country classification according to current levels of TFR, mean age at current levels of TFR, mean age at

first chilbearing, and the percentage first chilbearing, and the percentage of extramarital births.of extramarital births.

Three country groups and Three country groups and one outlier can be delimited.one outlier can be delimited.

Three most imortant recent changes: fertility Three most imortant recent changes: fertility decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth, decline, increase in mean age at first childbirth,

increase in the share of extra-marital birthsincrease in the share of extra-marital births


TFR MAB1 Extramar

Total 1,51 27,43 33,80

28,50 42,08

Iceland 2,05 26,29 65,72

25,97 36,18

1,40 28,56 16,92

Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia

Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, SwitzerlandDenmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands,

Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom

1,32

1,80


Cluster characteristics show Cluster characteristics show puzzled fertility patternspuzzled fertility patterns

1.1. GroupGroup (Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia) shows shows the lowest low the lowest low fertility levelfertility level, the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium , the youngest age at first childbearing, and medium frequency of extramarital births.frequency of extramarital births.

2.2. Group Group (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Switzerland) displays low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low low fertility, the oldest age at first childbearing, and low proportion of extramarital births.proportion of extramarital births.

3.3. Group Group (Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom), experiences the highest fertilitythe highest fertility, high , high age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births.age at first childbirth, and a high share of nonmarital births.

Might this group represent forerunners of Might this group represent forerunners of a suitable/sustainable fertility?a suitable/sustainable fertility?

Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and Traditional demographic correlations are violated: young age and low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with low frequency of extra-marital births do no more correlate with

high fertility levels!high fertility levels!


Cohort fertility of women born in 1980:Cohort fertility of women born in 1980:Possible future prospects?Possible future prospects?

Fertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generationsFertility rates for older ages estimated by using the rates observed for previous generations

1,281,311,311,311,321,331,331,361,371,371,371,391,391,431,431,441,471,571,601,691,721,771,801,811,851,861,951,952,091,0

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

1,6

1,7

1,8

1,9

2,0

2,1

Slovenia

ItalyPoland

SlovakiaSpain

Czech Republic

GreeceHungaryBulgariaGermany

Latvia

LithuaniaRomaniaAustria

Portugal

Switzerland



Sweden

United Kingdom

FinlandDenmark

NorwayFranceIrelandIceland

CFR (completed fertility rate: birth cohort 1980)

simple reproduction

lowest low fertility

low fertility


Mortality change and its impactMortality change and its impact

Decrease at older age in all countriesDecrease at older age in all countries

Population 65+: Population 65+: pension systempension system

Population 80+: Population 80+: health care systemhealth care system


Survival in EU27+Survival in EU27+(2)(2): 2005: 2005

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Latvia

LithuaniaBulgariaEstonia

SlovakiaHungaryRomaniaPoland

Czech Republic

SloveniaPortugalDenmark

Malta

Netherlands

Belgium

Luxembourg

ItalyCyprusFinlandIreland

GermanyAustria

United Kingdom

GreeceSpain

SwedenFrance

Males

Females

Life expectancy at age 65


Fertility is the key factor as regards Fertility is the key factor as regards the future population ageingthe future population ageing

Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050 Proportion of population aged 65 and over in 2050 is correlated with is correlated with (based on EU27 countries)(based on EU27 countries)::

Total fertility rate (2005) -0,591**

Population 65+ (2005) 0,454*

Male life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,004

Female life expectancy at 65 (2004) -0,043

** Correlation is significant at the 0,01 level (2- tailed)* Correlation is significant at the 0,05 level (2-tailed)


Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to Very low fertility levels if maintained will lead to rapid population loss and an extreme form of rapid population loss and an extreme form of

population ageing in individual countries.population ageing in individual countries.

Between 2005 and 2050 the percentage of people aged 65+ will increase from 11,6% (Slovakia) to 33,5% (Bulgaria) in the new member states, while in the original EU15 it will increase from 11,2% (Ireland) to 35,6% (Spain).

The fastest growing age group will be that of oldest-old, people aged 80 and more; while the proportion of 65+ will double, that of 80+ will triple.

The highest figures of 80+ are expected in Italy, Germany, and Spain; the new member states with shorter life expectancies at the age of 80 are lagging behind in this trend.


The percentage of persons The percentage of persons aged 65 and older is expected to almost aged 65 and older is expected to almost

double by 2050 in the EU2double by 2050 in the EU277..

Top six in 2005Top six in 2005 Italy 19,2 Germany 18,6 Greece 17,8 Sweden 17,2 Belgium 17,1 Bulgaria 17,1

Top six in 2050Top six in 2050 Spain 35,6 Italy 35,3 Bulgaria 33,5 Greece 32,5 Portugal 31,9 Germany 31,6


Southern and Central Europe will experience Southern and Central Europe will experience the highest number of older persons (65+)the highest number of older persons (65+)

per 100 working age persons (15-64) per 100 working age persons (15-64)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Denmark

MaltaSwedenEstoniaCyprusLatvia

LithuaniaIreland

United Kingdom

FinlandFranceBelgiumHungarySlovakia

PolandRomania

Austria

Czech Republic

SloveniaGermanyPortugalGreece

Bulgaria

ItalySpain

2005 2050

Old-age-dependency ratio


Old age dependency ratio: the number of persons aged 65+

per 100 of persons at 15-64

Currently (2005): 16,3 (Slovakia) and 29,3 (Italy)

In the future (2050): 36,1 (Luxembourg) and 67,5 (Spain)


Between 200Between 20055 and 2050, and 2050, the largest declinesthe largest declines in population size in population size are expected to are expected to

occuroccur in the new member statesin the new member states of EU27 of EU27

BulgariaRomaniaLatviaEstonia

Lithuania

Czech Republic

SlovakiaPoland

Hungary

Italy

GermanyPortugal

DenmarkBelgiumFranceUnited KingdomNetherlandsSwedenMaltaCyprusIrelandLuxembourg

AustriaFinlandSpain

SloveniaGreece

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 %

Percentage increase or decrease of total population between 2005 and 2050


EU Old and New MembersEU Old and New Members:: keep beingkeep being ddividedivided

The most substantial The most substantial percentage percentage decrease decrease will be experienced by the populationswill be experienced by the populations

in the fresh newcomers (Bulgaria, Romania),

then Baltic States (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania),

followed by Central Europe (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary)


Can fertility be enhanced ?Can fertility be enhanced ?

The role of family policyThe role of family policy

The role of ARTThe role of ART


Two scenarios for the future numbers of Two scenarios for the future numbers of children conceived with ARTchildren conceived with ART

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

Malta

Luxembourg

CyprusEstoniaSlovenia

Latvia

LithuaniaBulgariaSlovakiaIrelandFinland

DenmarkAustria

Czech Republic

HungaryGreecePortugalSwedenBelgiumRomania

Netherlands

SpainPoland

Italy

Germany

United Kingdom

France

2025

2050

Projected numbers of ART infants

Assumptions: 2025 in each country 5% ART infants 2050 in each country 7% ART infants


Proposal IProposal I Building a sBuilding a society for all agesociety for all ages Enabling to have family at any ageEnabling to have family at any age Reconciliation of workReconciliation of work//education and education and

familyfamily Freedom of choiceFreedom of choice

One standard life pattern One standard life pattern should be avoidedshould be avoided

education-career-childreneducation-career-children


Proposal IIProposal II

Access to ART treatment for people in Access to ART treatment for people in needneed and and at any ageat any age

Giving priority to policies slowing Giving priority to policies slowing fertility ageing fertility ageing


Thank youThank you

9th international icsi conference: budapest 2008 eu demographics: living more and reproducing less...

Documents

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low fertility trap

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total fertility rate

fast slide

demographic change