a 21 st century lookback will sustain a community’s focus on disaster resilience walter hays,...
TRANSCRIPT
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A 21ST CENTURY LOOKBACK WILL SUSTAIN
A COMMUNITY’S FOCUS ON DISASTER RESILIENCE
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
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IF WE FORGET OUR PAST AND OUR PRESENT
VULNERABILITIES … WE WILL BE UNPREPARED TOMORROW WHEN SIMILAR EVENTS HAPPEN AND ROB
US OF OUR FUTURE
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NOTE: THIS EXAMPLE, WHICH IS FOR
EARTHQUAKES IN THE CENTRAL USA, CAN BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
ANY PAST NOTABLE DISASTER CAUSING EVENT
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FACT
FOUR LARGE EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE NEW
MADRID SEISMIC ZONE, USA
16 DECEMBER 1811 –
7 FEBRUARY 1812
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UPDATE YESTERDAY’S REALITY WITH TODAY’S
KNOWLEDGEADD NEW KNOWLEDGE FROM DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, ONGOING RESEARCH AND LONG-TERM MONITORING TO EXTRAPOLATIONS OF
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED WHEN FOUR GREAT EARTHQUAKES OCCURRED IN THE
CENTRAL USA IN 1811-1812
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THE GREAT EARTHQUAKES
• 1811
• 16 DECEMBER: Estimated Mw - 8.2
• 16 DECEMBER: Estimated Mw - 8.2
• 1812
• 23 JANUARY: Estimated Mw-8.1
• 7 FEBRUARY: Estimated Mw-8.3
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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE
• The New Madrid Seismic Zone covers parts of five states in the Mississippi River drainage basin: Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Arkansas.
• Major demographic changes have occurred in the NMSZ since 1811 – 1812.
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ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
ONE OF WORLD’S LARGEST LIQUEFACTION FIELDS
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INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
INTEGRATED GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MODEL
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EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: MEMPHIS, TN
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EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: ST LOUIS, MO
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EXPOSURE EXAMPLE: CHICAGO, IL
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EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
• A COMPREHENSIVE INTEGRATION OF KNOWLEDGE FROM GEOLOGY, GEOPHYSICS, SEISMOLOGY, ARCHITECTURE, CIVIL ENGINEERING, AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL LIKE HAZUS
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• Based on Increased Scientific and Engineering Knowledge and Regional Demographic Changes, … and
• A continuing dialog sampled in a Regional Workshop, March 17-19, 2008
• Mid-America Earthquake Center, Report 08-02
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HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
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1)Damage and loss estimates and planning assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in the NMSZ
2) Date and time:13 December 2008 at 2:00 pm CST
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3) The epicenter is located approximately 33 miles North North-West of Memphis, TN.
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The geography of the multi-state area will change dramatically as a consequence of liquefaction and landslides induced by earthquake ground shaking.
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The most notable impacts will occur in and around the Mississippi River drainage basin where the soils are unconsolidated and susceptible to liquefaction.
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Over 260,000 people are displaced.Over 60,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities) are expected.
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Damage will occur over a wide area, especially in locations underlain by soft soil. Multiple fires will occur as a consequence of damage to natural gas pipelines crossing the 5-state region.
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Utilitiy systems will be damaged with power, water, gas, and waste disposal outages occurring over a wide area.
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Critical infrastructure (highway structures, utility systems, power plants, dams) located throughout the region will be seriously compromised
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Essential infrastructure (schools, universities, hospitals) throughout the region will be seriously compromised
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Transportation systems (highways, bridges, airports, river traffic) throughout the region will be severely impacted
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Communication throughout the region will be seriously impacted.
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Over 250,000 buildings will sustain damage, and an additional 100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong ground shaking.
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Total direct economic losses surpass $56 billion.
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Over 80,000 buildings are damaged leaving more than 120,000 people displaced and over 15,000 casualties.
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Total direct economic losses in Missouri are expected to approach $40 billion.
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Public Safety and Security Response (ESF 13) Evacuee Case Management (ESFs 6 & 8)
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Economic and Community Recovery (ESF 15) Fire Protection (ESF 4)
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Critical Resource Logistics and Distribution (ESF 7) Restoration of Lifelines (ESFs 3 & 12)
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Hazardous Materials (ESF 10) Evacuee Case Mgmt / Family Reunification ) (ESF 6 & 8)
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RISK MANAGEMENT
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• PREPAREDNESS
• PREDICTION AND WARNING
• INTERVENTION
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
RISK MANAGEMENT
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• PREPAREDNESS
• PREDICTION AND WARNING
• INTERVENTION
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
SCENARIOS WILL IMPROVE THE FOUR PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
RESEARCHRESEARCH