8/7/2019 A Best Worst Analysis of a Goodluck Presidency

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A Best/Worst Risk Analysis of a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency

I have been reading a book by Ben Carson called Take the Risk. In the book, Dr Carsongives a simple yet somewhat effective means of assessing risk and making decisions. Hecalls is a Best/Worst Analysis formula. This formula involves four questions:

What is the Best thing that can happen if I do this?What is the Worst thing that can happen if I do this?What is the Best thing that can happen if I don’t do this?What is the Worst thing that can happen if I don’t do this?

Also in addition to answering these questions, he also prescribes a strategy for acquiringthe knowledge and wisdom necessary for decision-making

Who? – Here you identify the key stakeholders and how they will be affected by thedecision

What? – What do you need to know to make the decision?Where? – Where are you going? Where are you now? Where will you start?When? – Is the timing of the decision right?How? – How do you go about making the decision or implementing it?Why? – Why are you making this decision?

So I m going to try and apply this to the prospect of a Goodluck Jonathan Presidency andwhat it could mean for Nigeria

What is the best thing that can happen if Goodluck wins the presidency?

Well from all indications on the ground, a Goodluck presidency will continue the processof re-awakening the country’s railroad system, will make inland water transportationacross the River Niger a reality. He will also privatize the power sector, which could

possibly bring an improvement in the power sector. He will also award contracts for gas power and possibly see the country make good use of the gas resources it has instead of gas flaring. He will tackle unemployment by improving agriculture (how? He doesn’tsay, shebi you wan turn us into farmers? Tschew). He will open federal universities in allstates of the nation so more schools to absorb the millions of JAMBites. The people of the Niger-Delta who produce the oil and have felt marginalized feel as though they are

part of Nigeria because their “brother” is in power. He proceeds with oil exploration inthe Chad basin and the people of the North gain from having oil. He also increases theminimum wage and we have no fuel scarcities.

What is the worst thing that can happen if Goodluck wins the Presidency?

If Goodluck wins, the PDP wins. Having ruled the country for 12 years and being thecesspool of corruption we all know and love, we should expect another four years of

bribery scandals, uncompleted contracts and projects and all out looting of the treasurythrough the NNPC and other means as per usual. He continues to be clueless as to how to

8/7/2019 A Best Worst Analysis of a Goodluck Presidency

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ensure the security of people in this country, He fails to catch the perpetrators of several bomb blast across the nation, Boko Haram continue to rampage the north and MENDdoesn’t quit attacking Nigerians. We continue to waste money on solving the power

problem and don’t see results. He stops all the projects he was doing prior to the electionsand Nigerians realize it was all a campaign strategy. There is a lack of transparency in the

sale of national assets with companies tied to his cronies winning bids. Also when 2015comes around, Goodluck refuses to step down and runs for presidency again, this timerigging massively despite cries from the South East and the North that he promised themthe presidency. The country is thrown into conflict

Whats the Best thing that can happen if Goodluck doesn’t win the Presidency?

He will be judged to have conducted the freest and fairest election this country has ever seen. In an acknowledgment of this, he becomes a highly valued statesman with greatinfluence over affairs of this country. The democratic system of the country develops ashe shows that politics is not a do or die affair and hands over power peacefully to another

party. There is an end to corruption as perpetrated by the PDP. A government of nationalunity is formed and all stakeholders are given a voice in the new government. We finallystart to solve the power problem due to the absence of corruption. The Niger Delta crisisreduces as in during the Yar’adua government because the new president is keen to solvethe problems of the region since he is not from the region and hence doesn’t want toanger the people after the loss of Goodluck.

Whats the Worst thing that can happen if Goodluck doesn’t win the presidency?

Angry that they have lost, the PDP and its members embark on a campaign of violence.The loss by PDP tears the country apart as they were the only truly national party. Thenew President is highly sectional and doesn’t apply the principles of federal character inappointing people to his cabinet thereby further igniting ethno-religious resentment. The

president is clueless and takes too much time learning the ropes of power hencedevelopment is slow. The new president is discovered to be full of rhetoric and poor on

performance delivery. The new government is as corrupt as the PDP one before it andhence the military intervenes and the country is once again thrown into military rule.Alternatively Goodluck refuses to step down and we have an Ivory-coast/Gbagbosituation on our hands. Since Nigeria produces oil and is not a former French colony, TheUS intervenes and the country suffers from a case of neo-colonialism with an Americanstooge placed in power.

Of course, most of my analysis is simplistic and might be criticized for being too fictional but that is just what it is fictional, I m looking at possible What ifs. What would be your answers to these questions and remember you can use this for any candidate.