InsIde:

NATO Science and Technology in Transformation

NATO Summit Outcomes for ACT

FFAO – The Next Steps

TRANSF RMERA Bi-Annual Publication of Allied Command Transformation Fall 2014 Volume 9, Issue 2

The

Table of Contents 1 A Message from SACT

2 NATO S&T, Key to Enabling Transformation

3 NATO S&T – a Fundamental Resource for NATO’s Transformation

4 3.500 Specialists Working Together to Advance NATO S&T

5 Collaborative M&S Enables Cost-Effectively Trained and Connected Forces

6 The Centre that Bridges the Atlantic

7 Autonomy in Military Unmanned Vehicles

8 Big Data at Sea

9 NMIOTC: Responding to Future Maritime Security Challenges

10-11 2014-2015 SACT Strategic Engagement Overview

12 The Wales Summit in Perspective

13 So Now What? NATO Defence Planning After the Wales Summit

14 NDPP – Reading the Crystal Bowl and Creating Magic

15 Transforming NATO’s Education and Training

16 NATO Training – “Way Ahead” from Cardiff

17 OR&A: Supporting Long Term Capability Development and Transformation for NATO

18 NATO Shortfalls – How Short Are We? How Can We Grow?

19 Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO)

20 Operational Capabilities Concept

Exclusive Online Feature Articles• Defence Capacity Building Initiative Post Wales Summit

• NATOIndustryForum–10yearsofInteractionwithIndustry

• OperationalCapabilitiesConcept(ExtendedVersion)

The Transformer is a bi-annual publication produced by Allied Command Transformation dedicated to the promotion of actions and ideas contributing to the transformation of NATO. Most of the authors belong to the command but the views and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of SACT, NATO or its member Nations and none can be quoted as an official statement of those entities. An electronic version that includes supplementary articles is available on the ACT website (www.act.nato.int). All articles are edited for content and style.

To contact The Transformer staff and/ or publish an article in the next issue April/ May 2015 — Deadline for submission: February 28, 2015, please use the following contacts:E-mail: pao@act.nato.intPostal : Headquarters SACT, Public Affairs Office 7857 Blandy Road, Suite 100 Norfolk, Virginia 23551

The Transformer team at HQ SACT:Colonel Javier Alejandre, Chief, Strategic Communications

Mr. Roy Thorvaldsen, Chief, Public Affairs

Mr. Frank Schiller, Chief, Corporate Communications

MC2 Adam Bennett, Editor

Special thanks to the Science and Technology Organization for their dedication and commitment to the articles provided in this edition.

In This Issue:This edition of The Transformer magazine sets the spotlight on the Science and Technology Organization in NATO, the Alliance’s new “super agency” made up of the former NATO Undersea Research Centre in La Spezia, Italy, now NATO’s Centre for Maritime Research and Experimenta-tion CMRE; ‘the collaborative S&T framework’ with a network of more than 3.500 research scientists supported by the Collaboration Support Office (former RTA) in Paris; and the Office of the Chief Scientist at NATO Headquar-ters in Brussels. The second theme of this edition is the Wales Summit outcome for ACT’s Programme of Work, especially in light of a changed geo-political climate.

By scanning this QR Code with a smartphone, readers can directly access the electronic version of this edition’s index providing links to all the articles in the magazine. Comments by e-mail (see address above) is encouraged. Interactivity is also possible on Facebook at the following address: http://www.facebook.com/NATO.ACT

TRANSF RMERThe

Who’s New at ACT

Major General Reinhard Wolski, Commander Joint

Warfare Centre, German Army

Commodore Arne Morten Grønningsæter, Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Command and Control,

Deployability & Sustainability, Norwegian Navy.

Brigadier General Roger Watkins, Deputy Commander/

Chief of Staff Joint Warfare Centre, US Air Force

The Transformer 1

A Message from SACT

T he Wales Summit, held three months ago and at a time of increasing security challenges around the Alliance’s

periphery, delivered a powerful message reinforcing NATO’s solidarity, cohesion and commitment. It has re-affirmed that Transformation is more critical than ever as we head towards the NATO Forces 2020 model. While the crisis in Ukraine and significant instability in the Middle East and North Africa have added urgency to some of our tasks, we must keep in mind that the security environment and its potential threats, constantly evolves and requires ACT to balance the needs of today with those of the future. The most encouraging outcome of the Summit was its validation of transformational initiatives that ACT has already established, and continues to deliver on a daily basis, as enduring priorities. For ACT, there are three main takeaways to consider.

The Connected Forces Initiative (CFI) is confirmed as a strategic enabler of interoperability, readiness and responsiveness. In only two years since its inception, CFI has proved to be an all-encompassing success. It has provided a vehicle to preserve our readiness, enhance interoperability and institutionalise the lessons learned from our recent operations, but also proved to be adaptable and agile in the face of near term requirements, whether as a vehicle for Assurance Measures or a framework in which the training and exercise requirements of the Readiness Action Plan (RAP) and proposed Very High Readiness Task Force (VJTF) can be met. We are concentrating our efforts on maintaining momentum on CFI as a whole. So whether by enhancing the exercise programme, delivering a high quality Exercise Trident Juncture 15, or developing short notice exercises to train and test our very high readiness forces, we can improve our forces’ readiness and responsiveness.

Capability Development is the key to balancing capabilities and capacity to meet our Level of Ambition. The Defence Planning Package endorsed in Wales provided a valuable summary of the 16 capability priorities that the Alliance will need to address as we enter the next cycle of the NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP). The first step, the Political Guidance, is under consideration now with a view to being published in June 2015. This Political Guidance will need to address NATO’s priorities and enable defence planners and military commanders to define the associated military capabilities. We also need to maintain efforts to encourage multinational approaches to meeting shortfalls in these capabilities whether through Smart Defence, the Framework

Nations Concept or any other means that allows us to invest scarce resources efficiently. As part of enhancing this near cycle of the NDPP, ACT’s Futures Work will contribute to provide the long-term defence planning perspective. The Strategic Foresight Analysis and Framework for Future Alliance Operations will contribute to NDPP Steps 1 and 2 (Political Guidance and Determine Requirements), providing a shared understanding of the potential Future Security Environment out to 2030 and the likely associated military implications. In this regard, we must be imaginative and innovative in our effort to ensure that NATO has the capabilities it needs to meet future challenges, bringing in knowledge from the Science and Technology

community to better understand the art of the possible.

The Post-Summit tasks are an opportunity to operationalise Transformation. While CFI and Capability Development remain two key strands of Transformation, the RAP brings another dimension, focused on NATO’s forces employment. The Wales Summit defined key priorities, among those the need to maintain our effects on key domains (JISR, Cyber), to develop NATO’s perspective on Hybrid Warfare, to assess the implications of security challenges in MENA, to operationalise the Alliance Maritime Strategy, to provide initial thoughts on long term role for Air Power in NATO’s missions, and to support the implementation of UNSCR 1325 [Women in Peace and Security]. The Heads of State and Government also confirmed the cooperative security as an important task for the Alliance. Therefore, they decided to launch new partnership initiatives to reinforce interoperability, to enhance cooperation with selected partners and to develop Defence Capacity Building first in Georgia, Moldova, and Jordan with a potential role in Iraq for training.

To support these transformational mandates from the Summit, ACT will, in the coming months, facilitate the Chiefs of Transformation Conference (16-18 Dec 14) and Transatlantic Forum (28-29 Jan 15) to solicit senior leaders’ experience and views with which to inform a collective vision towards sustaining NATO transformation. In addition to learning the lessons of our recent operations, imagination and innovation will be essential to identify which capabilities we will need to meet future challenges.

Jean-Paul PalomérosGeneral, French Air ForceSupreme Allied Commander Transformation

General Paloméros on Wales Summit Outcome for ACT

I n his 2013 Annual Report the NATO Secretary General states “it is necessary that NATO main-tains the momentum of its trans-

formation to meet the demands of a fast moving security environment”. As recent events in the world have shown, NATO must be prepared for an unpredictable and continuously-evolving global security landscape.

In a constrained financial environment with an uncertain future world order, the Alliance has to be resourceful in how to approach robust capability development for the long term. It must display true innovation to enable its cost-effective future. To quote the famous French author and aviator Antoine de Saint-Exupéry: “L’avenir n’est jamais que du présent à mettre en ordre. Tu n’as pas à le prévoir, mais à le permettre.”, “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it”.

S&T is the engine for innovation, as history has demonstrated time and again. It is evidence-based, continuously generating the advances necessary to provide opportunities for new ways of doing known things and of course, doing new things as well.

On 1 July 2012, NATO’s Science and Technology Organisation (STO) was stood up, in charge of positioning NATO S&T as the strategic

NATO S&T, Key to Enabling Transformation ACT and the STO have a long-standing relationship which SACT and NATO’s Chief Scientist intend to deepen further, focusing on enabling innovation.By Albert Husniaux, Major General, Belgian Air Force, NATO Chief Scientist, Chairman of the Science and Technology Board

enabler of the knowledge and technology advantage for the defence and security posture of NATO member and partner nations.

The STO is built on two preceding bodies: the NATO Research & Technology Organization and the NATO Undersea Research Centre. At its core, it is a knowledge network that enables innovation. It does this through the Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (former NURC in La Spezia, Italy), the collaborative S&T framework that draws on a network of over 3.500 research scientists (former RTO), supported by the STO Collaboration Support

Office (CSO — former RTA, Paris), and the Office of the NATO Chief Scientist (NATO Headquarters, Brussels).

NATO S&T has a diverse set of stakeholders including individuals, organisations, partners, NATO Nations and NATO bodies, such as Allied Command Transformation. They are inter alia able to guide, fund or execute NATO S&T activities or can benefit from its results.

ACT and the STO, and their preceding bodies, have a long-standing working relationship, both in the collaborative programme of work and in maritime S&T, which will be developed further, taking into account our mutual

roles in innovation.The Supreme Allied Commander Transformation

is the leader in creating an environment where innovation will thrive for developing robust capabilities (DOMLPFI), while the Chief Scientist is the leader in creating an environment where S&T based information, knowledge and technology can be brought to bear to stimulate and enable this innovation.

To that extent, we will continue to develop a structured partnership, aimed at fulfilling our missions in harmony — to the benefit of NATO and its member nations. n

2 The Transformer

NATO S&T has a diverse set of stakeholders

including individuals, organisations, partners,

NATO Nations and NATO bodies, such as Allied Command

Transformation. They are inter alia able to guide,

fund or execute NATO S&T activities or can

benefit from its results.

I n his keynote speech at the Defence Planning Symposium 2014 in Oberammergau, the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) emphasised the importance of effec-

tive, pragmatic and efficient innovation for offering solutions to keep NATO military relevant, ready and interoperable.

NATO Science and Technology (S&T) is a powerful engine for innovation. Its knowledge base supports both the strategic awareness of future challenges and provides the innovative solutions needed to stay ahead.

NATO S&TNATO S&T delivers state-of-the-art, validated

knowledge. It is multifaceted from many perspectives: its deliverables, its stakeholders and its expertise spectrum, encompassing the engineering, human, medical and social sciences. It addresses every component of the development of capabilities (DOTMLPFI) and every phase of the life of systems, from cradle to grave. Both fundamental research and applied research are part of its portfolio.

NATO S&T is collaborative by nature. NATO providing an excellent environment to generate, exchange and apply knowledge, and to position S&T as a critical “force multiplier“ for the Alliance, as a fundamental resource for NATO’s Transformation.

NATO’s STOWhen the NATO member nations’ Defence

Ministers decided to create the Science and Technology Organization (STO) in 2012, to provide NATO and its member nations a powerful enabler to their knowledge and technological advantage, they tasked the Science and Technology Board (STB) to enhance coordination between all stakeholders, both member and partner nations, to improve the exploitation and impact of S&T results including evidence-based support to decision making.

NATO S&T – A Fundamental Resource for NATO’s Transformation NATO Science and Technology Organization as an engine for innovation.

By Major Bart Houbeni, Belgian Army, STO, Office of the Chief Scientist at NATO Headquarters

Chairman of the Military Committee, General Knud Bartels (right) address the 2014 Spring STB at NATO HQ. To the left Major General Albert Husniaux, STB chairman.

The relationships between the CMRE and ACT are very strong, as the Chief Scientist has already stated earlier in this edition of The Transformer, ACT being the main customer and continuing to exercise the custody of the centre’s research vessels until the 1st of January 2016.

Executive support to the Collaborative Programme of Work (CPoW) is provided by an STO executive body, the (S&T) Collaboration Support Office (CSO), formerly Research and Technology Agency (RTA) in Paris, France.

ACT is an active player in the CPoW, being part of the teams conducting activities and the leadership of the S&T committees. The results of the CPoW support ACT’s mission of military transformation.

New is the Chief Scientist position at NATO HQ, and its supporting STO executive body, the Office of the Chief Scientist. The NATO Chief Scientist is both the Chairman of the STB and the senior S&T advisor to NATO decision makers.

The Chief Scientist and his office and ACT leadership interact to mutually support each other’s mission and objectives.

The STB is the governing body of the STO. It provides strategic advice pertaining to NATO S&T and governs the STO from an organisational perspective. It plays roles similar to the role of the NATO Consultation, Command and Control Organization (NC3O) in the C3 domain and to the role of the Agency Supervisory Board of the NATO Agencies. ACT is represented on the STB, up to flag officer level.

Supporting Nations and NATOThe STO PoW contributes to the three core tasks

of the Alliance, i.e. collective defence, crisis management

and cooperative security, as reflected in the NATO S&T strategy that was approved by the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in January 2013.

All stakeholders, both from NATO and its member nations have a role to play. They are numerous and have diverse backgrounds, interests and roles.

The STO provides and fosters the environment and the framework in which S&T supports the generation of innovation, by building bridges between stakeholders, seeking synergies and avoiding unnecessary duplication of S&T investments.

ACT and STO – A PartnershipACT and the STO team up at different levels,

from the strategic level down to the working group level, enabling NATO’s transformation.

Examples of the partnership between ACT and STO are numerous. The following highlights give a good impression of the width and the depth of that interaction:

• ACT has been participating in thedevelopment of NATO S&T guidance, co-writing the NATO S&T Strategy.

• ACT is part of different panels and theirworking groups. Examples are the Systems Studies and Analysis panel, e. g. Joint Operations 2030 and the Disruptive Technology Assessment Game and the AVT panel (Materials Scarcity). The cooperation is increasing, with different panels having recently visited ACT to further develop their relationship.

• ThecooperationwiththeNATOModellingand Simulation Group merits a special mention. The group and ACT succeeded in translating the operational requirements into deliverables for modelling and simulation as a service (MaSaaS), thereby supporting the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI).

The military transformation mission of ACT is also supported by the Office of the Chief Scientist, contributing to the review of the requirements setting process for an enhanced NATO Defence Planning Process, closely cooperating with other NATO HQ key players. n

Its knowledge base supports both the strategic awareness of future challenges and provides the innovative solutions

needed to stay ahead.

The Transformer 3

T he Scientific and Technical Committees (6 Panels and a Group), composed of na-tional defence S&T manag-

ers and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), are responsible to the S&T Board for the plan-ning and execution of STO’s Collaborative Programme of Work (CPoW).

The STO provides the framework and delivers executive support through the STO executive body entitled “Collaboration Support Office” (CSO), which is located in Neuilly-sur-Seine, France.

The Collaborative NetworkWithin this collaborative framework,

approximately 3.500 specialists, scientists and engineers are active, leading to a portfolio of more than 170 activities on a yearly basis. In what is “smart defence avant la lettre” NATO S&T stakeholders use their own resources to generate the CPoW, and mutually focus their efforts on NATO’s and its member nations’ priorities, together with NATO staff, to include Allied Command Transformation (ACT) experts who are invited in particular to Panel/Group business meetings as well as exploratory teams and Research Task Groups (RTGs) to auction requirements on one side and results on the other side.

The seven Scientific and Technical Committees are designed to be able to address every relevant military scientific and technological topic. Each committee is chaired, on a rotational basis, by a senior scientist or engineer from one of the participating NATO nations, and benefits from an ACT Associate Member.

The composition of the Scientific and Technical Committees is as follows: Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT) Panel, Human Factors and Medicine (HFM) Panel, Information Systems and Technology (IST) Panel, System Analysis and Studies (SAS) Panel, Systems Concepts and Integration (SCI) Panel, Sensors & Electronics Technology (SET) Panel, and NATO Modelling and Simulation Group (NMSG).

3.500 Specialists Working Together to Advance NATO S&T NATO bodies’ specialists, to include ACT’s, are working hand in hand with national managers and experts within the STO Collaborative Network, supported by the STO Collaboration Support Office, for the benefit of NATO and its member nations

By Mr. René Larose, Canadian Civilian, Director STO Collaboration Support Office, Neuilly-sur-Seine, France

A Successful NetworkThe continued success of the CPoW is rooted

in its original approach that allows NATO members and partners, military and scientist communities, to identify common interests and collectively address their own needs for science-based Defence and Security knowledge.

Participation of numerous NATO entities adds a NATO collective perspective to complement the specific national perspectives when and where appropriate. In particular, the NATO ACT, Allied Command Operations (ACO), specific Commands such as ISAF and KFOR, various Centres of Excellence, etc. also contribute to and benefit from the significant national effort to generate and exploit S&T knowledge as part of this framework.

As a result, besides the specific S&T outputs, NATO and ACT as well as the member nations also greatly benefit from a deeply rooted network of advisors. They have been exposed to the S&T challenges, perspectives and capabilities of their

allies with whom they deploy – and, consequently, benefit from sound advice for decision-making based on the right knowledge. This enables the development of adequate military capabilities well suited to address NATO’s requirements.

In short, ACT among others is instrumental to the STO PoW; reversely, the STO PoW benefits ACT’s transformational work.

An Example of ACT-STO Synergistic Activity

Some years ago, the SAS Panel identified the need for a state-of-the-art resource that describes the field of judgement-based Operational Analysis (OA) and best practice in its application to the many difficult problems faced by military decision makers. It created the SAS-087 RTG on “Code of Best Practice (CoBP) for

Judgement-based Operational Analysis” with the objective to demonstrate that even though an issue may be extremely complex, sufficient guidance and insights may be presented to decision-makers so that sound and defencible decisions can be made. Experts from nine NATO and partner nations and ACT actively participated in this RTG, productively employing their extensive expertise to create an outstanding body of work.

SAS-087 quickly delivered the CoBP for judgement-based OA, which takes a military client’s needs for support as a starting point, to include expectations of the validity of that support. It then sets rules of the road for analysts when conducting judgment-based analysis for military clients; creates an understanding of what a judgment-based approach is and what it can and cannot achieve. Finally it creates a roadmap for decision makers so that they can identify which kind of problem they are facing as well as what OA methods they should use to solve it. n

The seven Scientific and Technical Committees are designed to be able to address every relevant military

scientific and technological topic.

4 The Transformer

Collaborative M&S Enables Cost-Effectively Trained and Connected ForcesMaintaining the technological edge requires timely exploitation of state-of-the-art validated knowledge. Implementing the concept of Modelling and Simulation as a Service (MSaaS) will enable more affordable trained and connected Allied Forces.

By Mr. René Larose, Canadian Civilian, Director, and Lieutenant Colonel Francisco Gomez-Ramos, Spanish Army, Head Modeling and Simulation Co-ordination (MSCO),STO Collaboration Support Office (CSO), Neuilly-sur-Seine, France

T he world grows in complexity at an ever-increasing pace. Hence, the Alliance needs to

build and maintain agile, responsive and flexible connected capabilities. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has proven to be of great value in this respect, as it provides cost-effective, state-of-the-art and operator friendly solutions.

Train as we fight

In 2006, the Alliance formulated operational requirements to further improve the Education and Training (E&T) of NATO operational and tactical headquarters’ staffs and forces, in which NATO provides the combined headquarters’ staff, and the Allied nations assign tactical forces.

To deliver according to expectations, Allied Command Transformation (ACT) requested support from the NATO Modelling and Simulation Group’s (NMSG) Collaborative Network for improving and linking the then existing Allied E&T capabilities.

Under the leadership of the NATO Joint Warfare Centre (JWC) the operational requirements were translated by an NMSG Task Group (MSG-068) into S&T demands aimed at recommending a way forward for achieving E&T interoperability, technical standards and architectures.

The results of the task group contributed to the development of a distributed Education and Training Network (NETN) that is capable of linking remote simulation assets and live exercises. The most recent example of this capability was “VIKING 2014 “ hosted by Sweden, where the added value of the NATO S&T Collaborative Network was again proven.

The NMSG is also the M&S standardisation authority in NATO, working closely together with the NATO Standardisation Office (NSO). As is well known, standardisation is a key enabler of interoperability which is the corner stone in obtaining effective and connected NATO Forces. The NMSG

develops scientifically underpinned M&S standards that are laid down in Standardisation Agreements (STANAGs) and other documents.

As an example, one of the most important deliverables of the MSG-068 task group is a new type of Federation Object Model (FOM) for connecting simulators. This FOM is modular and became an international standard under the auspices of Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO).

Supporting CFIIn guiding and fostering Allied Transformation,

NATO decided at the Lisbon Summit in 2010 to start the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI). Two of the pillars supporting this initiative are E&T and a better use of technology.

From the very beginning, it was envisaged that implementing Service Orientated Architectures (SOAs) would enhance Allied Forces’ capabilities. Combining service-based approaches with ideas taken from Cloud Computing is nowadays known as Modelling and Simulation as a Service (MSaaS).

The idea of NATO MSaaS was born under high expectations as it became a candidate for evaluating the Supply-Demand processes within NATO.

For that purpose, ACT defined the opera-tional requirements, which were translated into

S&T demands, to supply knowledge on “Modelling and Simulation as a Service: New Concepts and SOA”.

NATO and the Nations are also working on cloud-based initiatives to support non-M&S requirements, e.g. the Future Mission Network (FMN).

Over the past year the concept of MSaaS was investigated and national perspectives and experiences were collected. The resulting “Technical Concept for M&S as a Service” provides an overview of the member nations’ activities in this area. ACT and the NATO Communications

and Information Agency (NCIA) actively participated in the research work under the NMSG.

Cost-effectively trained and connected

Collectively sharing complementary knowledge, seeking synergies and avoiding unnecessary duplication has led to cost-effective interoperable innovations for training and connecting Allied Forces in a timely manner.

The above highlighted research results were obtained by actively coordinating and supporting the transformation efforts of ACT through collaborative S&T within the STO Network. Furthermore, this demonstrates that NATO bodies, that are also members of this Network, rely on and benefit from this knowledge and expertise repository of the member nations.

ConclusionACT’s role in articulating military S&T demands

from operational requirements has been of fundamental importance in aligning the M&S activities of NATO and its member nations. In this way it has been possible to arrive at cost-effectively trained and connected Allied Forces, through Modelling and Simulation as a Service in support of transformation. n

Shared networked Knowledge is a key enabler for cost-effective Connected Forces

The Transformer 5

xxxx

S ince NATO’s Undersea Research Centre (now CMRE) was established in La Spezia, Italy in 1959 (original name SACLANTCEN) it has continuously

served as the place in NATO where ocean scientists and engineers from the Alliance nations gather to conduct collaborative research projects that advance basic understanding and naval capabilities needed to operate effectively and efficiently in the maritime domain, facilitating interoperability in future naval systems, both conceptually and in practice.

From its earliest days the Centre’s purpose has been to bridge the Atlantic with sea-going scientific collaboration focused on mutual defence and security needs of the Alliance. North American and European scientists, mathematicians, and engineers have been recruited to the Centre for more than fifty years to conduct research and development in anti-submarine warfare, mine warfare, military oceanography, acoustics, ocean physics, signal processing and advanced sensing technologies. The Centre has long been recognised for its pioneering discoveries in numerical ocean and acoustic modeling, acoustic phenomenology such as Reliable Acoustic Path and inversion methods for ocean acoustics, its breakthroughs in Rapid Environmental Assessment, and increasingly its advances in robotic antisubmarine warfare and mine hunting.

In addition, the Centre attracts collaborators from national institutions in a number of ways. Joint Research Programs offer NATO’s nations formal mechanisms to create collaborations around the Centre’s Allied Command Transformation (NATO ACT) funded programme of work.

The Centre is also pioneering new funding models for research through Multinational Projects, such as the Littoral Continuous Active Sonar (LCAS) programme recently approved by the North Atlantic Council (NAC): important bridges for the Alliance.

Collaboration at the Centre is important because of the significant expenses associated with maritime research. By pooling the investments in infrastructure, the nations are able to reduce the

The Centre that Bridges the Atlantic NATO’s Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (CMRE); former NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC)

By Mr. Edward C. Gough Jr., United States Civilian, Chief Technology Officer, Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation Analysis

costs of discoveries that are the necessary prelude for innovations that reduce life-cycle operating costs and improve performance of downstream systems.

In addition to the links forged among the defence science communities of practice within the Alliance nations, the Centre has recently begun to expand its influence by introducing emerging science and technology into operational exercises and experimentation. The collaboration with the newly formed NATO Maritime Command (MARCOM) in Northwood, United Kingdom has led to the Centre

participating in the Maritime Enterprise led by MARCOM. A Letter of Intent was recently signed to signal a deeper engagement between emerging science and emerging naval operations and operational command.

Beyond defence science, the Centre has become more involved in the problems associated with civil security in the maritime domain, and this has in turn brought NATO into a closer collaborative posture with respect to the European Commission (EC). Recognised as an International Research Body by the EC, the Centre serves as a new kind of collaborative bridge that facilitates research cooperation between scientists funded in North America, and those funded in Europe. In this way, CMRE is currently

engaged with non-defence sector science-funding organisations on both sides of the Atlantic to secure partnerships to exploit this exceptional status.

Throughout all of these changes, NATO remains the principal customer and the focus of the Centre’s programme of work. Most of this activity is a part of the transformational investment programme of ACT, the Centre’s biggest customer. Since the change to a customer-funded model, as an executive body of the Science and Technology Organization (STO), the relationship between the Centre and ACT has arguably never been better than it is today.

The Centre’s programme continues to explore the applications of emerging robotics technologies in anti-submarine and mine warfare, as well as pioneering the use of robotic platforms for ocean and acoustic reconnaissance. These deployed robotic platforms are synchronised with communications to assure integration and interoperability, and they are being exposed to rigorous military exercises at as well as specialised scientific and engineering data collections at sea. For the past two years the Centre has participated in the Coalition Warrior Interoperability eXploration, eXperimentation, eXamination, eXercise (CWIX) interoperability trials to learn and demonstrate how to connect maritime data feeds, and Centre-developed algorithmic insights, into national and NATO networks. Working with MARCOM, the Centre is developing and testing new ways to explore and exploit the cascade of new maritime data sources without overwhelming either analysts or commanders. n

CMRE has continuously served as the place in NATO where ocean scientists and engineers from Alliance nations gather to conduct collaborative research.

NATO Research Vessel Alliance underway with a multinational crew and scientific experiments on board.

6 The Transformer

The Transformer 7

T he accelerating rate of advancement in computing and robotics is providing opportunities for introducing potentially game-changing autonomous military

capabilities. Working together, Allied Command Transformation (ACT) and the NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO) are advancing the military understanding of the potential impact in both the near and distant future.

BackgroundThe generic term “unmanned vehicle” covers

a wide range of platforms, from tethered remotely operated systems to fully autonomous robots. Across the land, air, and maritime domains, significant advances are being made towards moving from automated systems (which execute a set of pre-programmed actions), to systems capable of independent decision-making.

As reliance on direct human decision-making is decreased through advances in autonomy, it will be increasingly easy to remove the operator from danger while maintaining, or even improving, operational capability.

The Maritime EnvironmentIn underwater scenarios, higher levels of

autonomous capability have been difficult to achieve as the combination of environment and sensor capabilities makes it challenging for unmanned systems to attain the necessary awareness of their environment.

Compounding the challenge, bandwidth and range limitations for underwater communications necessitate unmanned underwater vehicles to be able to operate highly independently since reliable communications links with human operators will not always be available.

In a balanced partnership with ACT, who articulates the requirements and provides the necessary military perspective, the STO Centre for Maritime Research & Experimentation (CMRE) is deriving and working on the S&T demands that correspond to the development of robotic systems concepts. Building on many years of ocean-based experimentally validated research, the CMRE is covering the full spectrum of technologies necessary for operating autonomous systems at sea such as sensing modalities, data processing, data assimilation,

Autonomy in Military Unmanned VehiclesA military – science partnership to develop game-changing capabilities

By Dr. Warren Fox, United States Civilian, STO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation and Mr. Neil Carson, Canadian Civilian, STO Office of the Chief Scientist at NATO Headquarters.

For mine countermeasures applications, synthetic aperture sonar imagery is being generated on-board and provided to automatic target recognition algorithms also resident in the autonomous vehicle, reducing the amount of time required for mine hunting.

The Air EnvironmentMany of the activities under the STO

Collaborative Programme of Work (CPoW) have focused on support to unmanned air vehicles (UAV). Because UAV are so particular in terms of size, propulsion and control mechanisms and concepts of autonomy, both basic and applied research are needed. This work is executed collaboratively by NATO’s member nations, through a variety of fora such as Task Groups and Symposia, and made available to NATO bodies such as ACT for exploitation.

The topics covered by the CPoW in this area range from developing new methods for the prediction of the aerodynamics and Stability & Control issues (AVT-201 Extended Assessment of Reliable Stability & Control Prediction Methods for NATO Air Vehicles) to addressing new, potential threats posed by enemy use of UAVs (SET-180

signal and image detection, target recognition, tracking, and autonomy algorithms and infrastructure.

Modern computing capabilities are being leveraged on board autonomous undersea vehicles (AUVs) to process in near real-time data coming from arrays of sensors. This has been highlighted during recent anti-submarine warfare demonstrations where AUVs have independently processed contact and track level data, autonomously altering their trajectories in response and then providing reach-back information resulting in better overall situational awareness for military operators.

Analysis and Recognition of Radar Signatures for Non-Cooperative Identification of UAVs). Other factors being considered are the importance of man-machine integration (TG HFM-214 Human Systems Integration for Robust Operations of UAVs) and role of autonomy in Intelligence (IST-127 Intelligence & Autonomy).

The Comprehensive ViewIn order to provide NATO and national senior

decision and policy makers with the strategic S&T-based advice on autonomous systems, the NATO Science & Technology Board hosted a Symposium on “Autonomous Systems” in September 2014. The focus of this symposium was on the future trends in autonomy, presenting both new capabilities and opportunities in military operations, and, at the

same time, challenges and emerging threats posed by systems at various levels of autonomy used by adversaries.

ACT & STO – Advancing Autonomy Together:

The use of autonomous systems in missions clearly offers cost, performance, and safety benefits to the Alliance. Utilising research in concept development and experimentation, STO and ACT are working together to ensure that the Alliance has access to the right information at the right time concerning the state-of-the-art of autonomous systems. n

As reliance on direct human decision-making is decreased through advances in autonomy, it will be increasingly easy to remove the operator from danger while maintaining, or even

improving, operational capability.

An Autonomous Mine Hunting Underwater Vehicle, containing the ability to process onboard the raw data collected by its Synthetic Aperture Sonar and determine its own search pattern, is pulled from the water after a successful test run.

Big Data at Sea Maritime Situational Awareness: Delivering Information Superiority in an Environment of Information Abundance

M aritime Situational Awareness (MSA) is a crucial element in conducting maritime operations. NATO currently conducts two mar-

itime operations, Operation Ocean Shield and Opera-tion Active Endeavour, both of which are highly reliant on accurate and timely situational awareness.

Information AbundanceCurrent and future NATO maritime operations

require an extensive, validated, contextual situational awareness, garnered over time from a vast area of potential relevance to the operation. Ever more data is being collected, and ever more data is being shared. As a result, operational commands have transitioned from information scarcity into information abundance. This creates the tantalising possibility that the information required to detect a threat could be in the available data, but not apparent due to incomplete processing and understanding of the data stream. How to optimally process all of the available information and extract the critical connections that lead to the most complete understanding possible of the situation, quickly enough not to be overtaken by events, is often missing.

The NATO MSA Concept and its implementation documents articulate how information superiority is essential to effectively conduct maritime operations. Meeting NATO maritime operational needs requires not only gathering data from a wide range of sensing systems, but also effectively fusing highly heterogeneous information streams, validating and resolving inconsistencies, generating informative products and distributing them in a timely manner to a spectrum of users. Success in these security operations hinges on being able to adapt quickly and effectively to the challenge, at the same time ensuring interoperability.

Information Interoperability

The level of interoperability, underpinned by research efforts, is expected to increase in future

years as the Federated Mission Network (FMN) is implemented. But a glut of information is not enough; it is vital that the “how to” for effectively exploiting the abundance of information is included within the FMN.

Learning how to best exploit the data is a major S&T activity. For example, developing methods to derive higher-level validated knowledge from a large quantity of data with noisy or low-signal information is key to being able to effectively use the data to make decisions. In general, it is also unlikely that a single data source will have all the necessary pieces of information.

In many cases, large data sets (“big data”) coming from different sources, have to be appropriately combined (data fusion) to extract a meaningful result. The Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation’s (CMRE) data fusion capability, called Fusion as a Service (FaaS), allows for rapid incorporation of information from new sensors and sources, and provides augmented and meaningful information to the command and control chain.

The FaaS platform allows additional processing of fused information, which provides a higher-level of situational awareness than was previously possible. For example, the CMRE Traffic Route Extraction and Anomaly Detection (TREAD) tool, which is being used experimentally in NATO exercises, automatically identifies normal patterns in vessel track data. With this knowledge, it is then possible to identify abnormal or anomalous patterns in context that may be related to a threat. An unassisted human operator would not

be capable of performing such an analysis of abnormal behaviour in context on the necessary scale.

Information SuperiorityThese technologies and services have the potential

to transform the concept and conduct of operations as well as position MSA as an enabling capability to deliver information superiority in NATO maritime security operations. This transformation is not linear. It is enabled by the strong interaction between the military operators and the S&T domain, facilitated

by the dialogue between Allied Command Tranformation (ACT) and the CMRE, creating a bridge from S&T to operational capability. The two STO pillars, the Collaborative Network and the CMRE worked together over the last few years on investigating enabling technologies for NATO MSA. A workshop on “MSA enabled by Space-based Systems” is planned for 2015.

Furthermore, the STO Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS) Panel defined a “Concept Development Assessment Game” methodology that was used to assess, through experimentation, elements of the NATO MSA Concept. Finally, MSA

development benefits from the CMRE participation in operational experimentation at venues such as Coalition Warrior Interoperability eXploration, eXperimentation and eXamination Exercise (CWIX), in which prototype tools and products are demonstrated to the operational community for quick exploitation and to collect feedback.

ConclusionsThe NATO Science & Technology Board (STB)

considers MSA and more generally, Maritime Security, one of the main security and defence challenges for the wider NATO S&T community. Effectively exploiting this newfound way of dealing with information abundance will create the ability to move from a reactive to a proactive stance, ensuring that more threats are detected and identified early. The end result is a reduction of risk to NATO nations’ economies, security, and the global maritime commons. n

By Mr. Steven Horn, Canadian Civilian, Project Leader, Maritime Situational Awareness, Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation

Global Automated Identification System (AIS) traffic for one day as detected from space.

8 The Transformer 8 The Transformer

NMIOTC: Responding to Future Maritime Security ChallengesBy Commodore Ioannis Pavlopoulos, Hellenic Navy, Commandant NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Center (NMIOTC)

“dam” around the maritime environment, by training our personnel as effectively as possible in order to tackle the phenomena of future maritime terrorism all the more efficiently. NMIOTC constantly stands ready to take new initiatives and actions in order to provide NATO Allies and Partners with the most advanced and complete expertise regarding the maritime environment. Our institution, with the immense support of the Greek government and the sponsoring nations (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Italy, Romania, and Turkey), is

guided by all of the above virtues.Finally, I would like to remind all of us that

whoever knows history have a better and wiser grasp of today’s reality. Security challenges have always been an issue in the maritime arena, and training is the most proactive tool to tackle this. NMIOTC provides the training that will enhance our readiness prior to deployment in real-world operating areas and will act as the non-lethal weapon to ensure that maritime security challenges will no longer be an issue in the near or the distant future. Paraphrasing a quote by Sir Winston Churchill, who characterised the pessimist approach as “difficulty in every opportunity” and the optimist approach as “opportunity in every difficulty”, I would like to say that, even in this period of global crisis, we should seize every opportunity to gain the advantage by working efficiently and responsibly –and by remaining optimistic. n

Paraphrasing Sir Winston Churchill we should look for “opportunity in every difficulty.”

will further enhance our initiatives and at the same time keep NMIOTC as a primary training hub for pre-deployment preparation to on-going or future maritime security operations.

In an effort to pursue continuous improvement, NMIOTC voluntarily participated in ACT’s new initiative for the quality assurance accreditation, in accordance with the protocol of Bologna, following University Quality Assurance standards. NMIOTC was one of the very first institutions to take this opportunity, believing that this will lead us inevitably

to greater efficiencies, and an operationally relevant academic environment of the highest quality. In November 2013, the centre was awarded by ACT with a Quality Assurance Unconditional Accreditation, valid until2019.

Furthermore, as a capstone project, NMIOTC is in the process of creating a Master of Science or Master of Arts academic curriculum, in cooperation with national and international universities. Our aim is to provide a holistic approach to maritime security operations for command-level officers and civilians, leveraging NMIOTC’s exceptional ability to combine tactical, operational and strategic expertise in maritime security. This ability has been proven through years in its functional capacity.

I sincerely feel that the future will require far greater coordination and training efforts among nations, with regard to building a serious security

E conomic recession, international security uncertainty, generally low optimism amongst our populations, illegal trafficking, maritime acts of terrorism, piracy, illegal

flow of weapons and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and generally all forms of illicit activity are just some of the threats our contemporary society is facing. Daily there are more and more voices from academia as well as government that sound the alarm and express their concern that the cohesion of our society is not as healthy as it was in the past. On the contrary, another great number of experts believe that now more than ever we have the mechanisms to detect and control illegal acts and to restrict those actions that tend to de-orbit our society’s focus from going towards a security framework. This approach has become the new normal, especially given that our well-formed international institutions and organisations have acquired and already implement the idea of confronting any illegal action for the sake of the common good.

The NATO Maritime Interdiction Operational Training Center (NMIOTC), from its own operational post and being an active subset of NATO, effectively contributes to this effort, focusing specifically on how training and transformational efforts can bring a halt to current illegal maritime activity. Specifically, NMIOTC is the only NATO accredited maritime training facility that provides practical products in accordance with NATO standards for participating in maritime operations that combat all types of illegal activities at sea. NMIOTC’s training is based on standards of pre-deployment training for maritime operations and involves mission rehearsal exercises that deliver a firsthand approach to the way real-world NATO operations are executed.

Another important aspect of our training program that has become a trend in the last three years is the increased participation of specialised teams. Numerous highly specialised teams from different countries have benefitted from our advanced training and have asked for more demanding training, such as “Opposed Boardings”, “Hostage Release Scenarios”, or even “Disruption of Pirate Logistic Bases”. This shows that NMIOTC’s training standards attract even the most specialised personnel. This is an honour for us as well as an opportunity to strengthen our training materials and exchange valuable knowledge that

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NATO

10 The Transformer

2014/2015 SACT STRATEGIC ENGA GEMENT OVERVIEW

APRIL MAyDECEMBER JANUARy FEBRUARy MARCH

16-18 DEC

Chiefs of Transformation Conference

28-29 JAN

Trans- Atlantic Forum

25-27 MAR

NATO Transforma-tion Seminar

+Young Professionals

Day

24-26 FEB

Defence Planning

Symposium

6-7 FEB

Munich Security

Conference

21-22 JAN

Military Committee in Chiefs

of Defence Session

21-22 MAy

Military Committee in Chiefs

of Defence Session

ACT

2014/2015 SACT STRATEGIC ENGA GEMENT OVERVIEW

All dates are tentative and to be confirmed.

JUNE JULy AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

The Transformer 11

9-11 JUN

Strategic Military Partner

Conference

21 OCT-6 NOV

Trident Juncture

5-6 NOV

NATO Industry Forum

16-19 NOV

Allied Reach

Principle NATO Events

Key Political Events

SACT’s Tier II & III Events

ACT — Leading NATOMiilitary Transformation

11-13 SEP

Military Committee Conference

23-24 JUN

Defence Ministers Meeting

The Wales Summit in Perspective

F rom the Wales Summit we have a com-mon Alliance view that the security en-vironment has changed. Heads of State and Government have directed change in

order to deliver security in this new environment. Fortunately the Summit provides the elements of a transformation strategy, which can deliver the needed change.

The Changed Security Environment

The Euro-Atlantic security environment has changed significantly. Threats and challenges from Russia, ISIL and others already require action on NATO’s Eastern and Southern flanks and we see the potential for new challenges in the North due to Russia’s stated intent and actions re-militarising the Arctic. Hybrid and cyber are common threats, which are not geographically bounded. The emerging insider threat is extremely complex with significant national sovereignty issues as well as unknown implications, roles and responsibilities for the Alliance.

A Transformation Strategy for NATO

Despite the changed security environment, from a transformational viewpoint, NATOs ends remain valid, a transformed NATO meeting the security goals of the Strategic Concept and NATO Forces 2020. The journey towards NATO’s ends will be dynamic, adapting as necessary, but with a deliberate focus on interoperability and cohesion. The ways already in place, which include an enhanced NATO Defence Planning Process, Smart Defence, Cooperative Security and the Connected Forces Initiative (CFI) have been validated by the Wales Summit and augmented with the additional tools of the Framework Nations Concept (FNC), Defence Capacity Building (DCB), and the Readiness Action Plan (RAP). Also very encouraging to our transformational strategy is the very direct manner in which the means to implement a transformational strategy have been addressed at the Summit. With the spending pledge, Nations have addressed the Achilles Heel of any NATO strategy, i.e. the means. With a commitment by Nations to provide a

Readiness Action PlanThe RAP operationalises capability development

and the Connected Forces Initiative. Implementation of many of the assurance and adaptation measures requires coordination of requirements, planning and execution across many disciplines and timelines. Thus, the RAP forces coherence, and to a certain degree a prioritisation of effort, in order to enhance the responsiveness and improve the interoperability of military forces.

Deeper CooperationWithin agreed frameworks, NATO seeks a

deeper cooperation with Partner Nations, international organisations (particularly the EU) and external partners such as think tanks, academia and industry. The purpose of this effort is to bring NATO’s military level cooperative security goals to fruition and improve the transformational programme of work.

Trans-Atlantic BondThe Trans-Atlantic bond is a core principle

for NATO. The Wales Summit advanced a shared understanding of our indivisible security situation. The RAP’s assurance measures demonstrated in a visible and dynamic manner, Allies solidarity in the face of adversity. In the longer term at the military level, our solidarity will be demonstrated in a successful exercise programme, in our ability to plan together, in the RAP’s adaptation measures and in our interoperability, but in order to leverage the power of our solidarity we must also put forth a narrative that is coherent. Fair responsibility sharing is the cornerstone of the Trans-Atlantic Bond. The Defence Spending Pledge is an excellent tool for ensuring a more equitable distribution of responsibility.

Strategic ThinkingThe NMA’s capacity and willingness to

conduct Military strategic thinking is maturing and improving. The discussions and work thus far have created an understanding of the security perspectives of many Allies and Partners. This understanding is an essential element in our transformation strategy, as our end state must support the needs of each member state and this is also very fertile ground for NATO EU collaboration and cooperation. n

Connected Forces Initiative Without the preparation of forces that CFI

delivers, the credibility of NATO’s core competency of planning and conducting Allied military operations is not guaranteed. It is essential as NATO reorients from Afghanistan to the current security environment.

Capability DevelopmentCapability Development is the engine of

military transformation. It allows for the application of all elements of National power to the task of providing the needed military capability. In the Alliance it also acts as the interoperability tool and the capability coherence tool.

12 The Transformer

By Mr. Oke Thorngren, United States Civilian, Political-Military Advisor, Strategic Plans and Policy Division

reasonable and predictable 2% GDP to their Defence and, just as important a 20% to recapitalisation we can fulfill the vision of Euro-Atlantic security and NATO Forces 2020, knowing that a vision without resources is hallucination.

Despite the changed security environment, from a

transformational viewpoint, NATO’s ends remain valid, a

transformed NATO meeting the security goals of the Strategic

Concept and NATO Forces 2020.

1. Political Guidance

2. DetermineRequirements

5. ReviewResults IMPROVING

ALLIANCECAPABILITIES

3. ApportionRequirements

Set Targets

4. FacilitateImplementation

So Now What? NATO Defence Planning After the Wales Summit The recent NATO Summit has provided the guidance. Now, how can NATO facilitate its implementation?

NATO will face an evolving security environment in the coming decades with renewed and changing chal-lenges demanding ready and re-

sponsive military forces. At the recent Wales Summit, Heads of State and Government (HOSG) agreed on a Defence Planning Package that laid out a number of priority capability areas on which the Allies will focus. Where should NATO concentrate its efforts in delivering these capabilities so that they can be suc-cessfully integrated and employed in the future?

Defence Planning PackageThe Summit Declaration high-

lighted the agreement reached on a Defence Planning Package that described a range of capa-bility requirements based on shortfalls including: enhancing and reinforcing training and exercises, command and control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, ballistic missile defence and cyber defence. The Al-lies also pledged on reversing the trend of declining defence budgets with the aim of increasing expenditures in real terms to address the multiple challenges that the Alliance will face in the future. The actions taken to fulfill these require-ments will need to be coordinated to ensure that this reinvestment in military capabilities delivers the best ‘bang for the buck.’

NATO’s Role NATO has mechanisms in place to assist Al-

lies in the development of cost-effect capabilities while enhancing their interoperability. The imple-mentation of the Defence Planning Package must consider not only the operation of capabilities that may eventually be assigned to NATO, but also the development of these capabilities by moving up-stream in the life cycle process. This ensures that they are designed from the outset to be interoper-able and the lessons and best practices built up in their development are shared across the Alliance. It is here that NATO will find its role in helping

By Mr. Mark Tocher, Canadian Civilian, Analyst/Defence Planning Policy and Analysis

efforts of Allies and all the Alliance structures. Implementation within NDPP is moving to-

ward a model where Capability Area Facilitators will look across the nations to seek closer cohesion coordination and alignment of efforts in capabil-ity development through the production and shar-ing of Capability Area Implementation Roadmaps (CAIR). The Roadmaps will highlight timelines, gaps, technology enhancements, best practices and possibly duplicative efforts.

For the most part, this process will lever-age the existing NATO committee structures and their supporting groups of subject matter experts, which will ensure there is high-level engagement across the Alliance. Though especially important in committees that deliver materiel solutions, ef-forts across the spectrum of Doctrine, Organisa-

tion, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability (DOTMLPFI) will be critical as the Alliance retains important tools and inf luence in each of these components of capa-bility development.

ACT’s RoleWithin Allied Command Transformation

(ACT), most Divisions will have a role to play in facilitating this capability. Whether it is develop-ing individual or collective training and exercises,

building consensus on common standards, conducting concept development and

experimentation or exploring the con-vergence of longer-term trends and

their implications on military op-erations, ACT personnel will con-tribute to the achievement of the aspirations raised by the HOSG.

In parallel, ACT will continue its leading role in op-

erationalisation of other political initiatives that support capability

development. The Smart Defence pro-gram will continue to highlight viable

options for multinational solutions that will deliver capabilities in a cost-effective manner. The Connected Forces Initiative will build on the ex-perienced gained over the last decade of operations and will leverage technology and an enhanced training and exercise program to retain effective and interoperable military forces.

ConclusionThe Allies at the highest level have deter-

mined to reverse the declines in defence budgets seen over the last decades. It will be critical for these increased expenditures to be executed wise-ly to ensure that the Alliance will have access to the military forces necessary to achieve its goals and face future challenges. NATO, and in par-ticular ACT will have leading roles in this process through promoting and facilitating capability de-velopment. This is an important step for change within the Alliance and we will all have a part to play in it. n

Allies to both spend more, and spend more wisely.In Step 4 of the NATO Defence Planning

Process (NDPP), Implementation is focused on as-sisting and facilitating national, multinational and collective efforts with a view to the coherent and timely delivery of capabilities. Unlike the cyclical nature of the other steps in NDPP, implementation is a continuous process. It includes the combined

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14 The Transformer

NDPP – Reading the Crystal Ball and Creating Magic Integrating NDPP within Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander TransformationIntroduction

The first NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) cycle just ended, and we are now preparing to enter the next cycle. As part of the preparations for this cycle, the member nations have directed NATO to enhance the Process. One of the first lessons identified in the last cycle had to do with how better to integrate NDPP into Allied Command Transformation’s (ACT) internal processes. The Defence Planning Integration Branch (DPI) has taken on that responsibility, and this article will explain how its integration-function is being implemented.

BackgroundThe NDPP process involves a comparison of

requirements against the Alliance inventory. After discussion with the nations over the precise capabilities that each offers, it is possible to accurately define the Alliance’s shortfalls. A prioritisation process identifies those shortfalls that would be most effective to be alleviated and, in turn, how to alleviate them. There should be a close linkage between the result of this prioritisation and the capability development activities of nations, and multinational and Alliance or collective efforts. There are additional mechanisms by which shortfalls can be identified and fed back into NDPP; for example, lessons from operations, training, or exercises. Work may then be initiated, based on agreed priorities, to develop robust and affordable solutions for these shortfalls. This will be capability development across all aspects of Doctrine, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Interoperability (DOTMLPFI).

It was recognised in the last cycle that there is some room for improvement in understanding and aligning/ synchronising NDPP activities with the other strands of work in ACT and vice versa.

Integration implementationDPI aims to familiarise ACT staff with NDPP

and enhance their contributions to the process (among others by explaining its value and demonstrating how NATO can benefit from staff contributions), while also making ACT more responsive to NDPP outputs.

By Colonel Per Larsen, Danish Air Force, Branch Head Defence Planning Integration

DPI has already deepened and broadened the relevant communication within Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT) by completing a series of Branch Head to Branch Head and staff meetings, discussing the latest NDPP developments and the purpose and expected value of NDPP outputs for stakeholders, as well as exchanging ideas on who should/could support and influence what, when. Timing remains a challenge. In parallel, DPI will communicate NDPP products within ACT as they get approved, so they can be used accordingly and will search for possible new users in an effort to maximise their exploitation.

Maintaining such an information flow will not only enhance ACT’s contribution to the next NDPP cycle, but has already “bore fruits” with staff support to the Step 2 preparatory work and methodology. Open communication lines and early access to intermediate products is expected to motivate staff even more and enable them to remain engaged and make timely contributions, all facilitating to make ACT more responsive.

DPI’s ambition goes even further as it plans to support integrating ACT contributions across all DOTMLPFI aspects; facilitating new ideas, establishing the relevant links to ACT’s Program of Work (PoW), and keeping record of ACT contributing activities in all steps of the NDPP – all this while applying consistent Information Management rules.

ACT Branches will have access to, through coordination with DPI, the current “NDPP operational picture” with updated information on status, progress and plans in general and especially for Step 2+, along with Point of Contact (POC) lists and engagement matrices. This should prevent any misalignment between the actual status of capabilities and the key input and output of the NDPP.

Staff will be able to engage the ACT Staff Element Europe (SEE) and the Capability Area Groups, which in turn involve all NATO Planning Domains, and shape intermediate outputs like the “Capability Codes and Capability Statements” (CC&CS), the “Mission to Task Decomposition” (MTD), which may also perhaps be used outside NDPP, and influence major outputs like the “Minimum Capability Requirements” (MCR), the “Priority Shortfall Areas” (PSA) and the “Draft Blue Books” with the Targets to NATO and its member nations.

The futureAs a new defence planning cycle commences,

DPI will implement a more agile and transparent methodology facilitating internal coordination as necessary.

A series of Table Top Exercises are planned as mechanism to align inputs. The DPI team is always ready to assist you in collaborating and linking your expertise with Defence Planners. n

Transforming NATO’s Education and TrainingA transformation of NATO Education and Training was needed — from “Build us a course” to a systematic match of identified requirements and effective solutions

By Major Patrick Van Hoeserlande, Belgian Air Force, Deputy Chief of Staff Joint Force Trainer (JFT) Plans & Policy

The Old WayUntil 2012, NATO Education and Training

(E&T) was driven by requirements detected in quasi-isolation by elements within the NATO Command Structure. These requirements were usually satisfied by single course offerings and occasionally introducing a new exercise objective. The E&T effort was not focused on what the Heads of State and Government had told NATO to do, at previous summits. A close examination of courses revealed that some were linked neither to definable requirements, nor to collective behaviour as demonstrated in exercises. Staff, whether they were competent or not, were thrown into exercises in the hope that they somehow succeeded. There was no systematic review of the validity of the E&T solutions, ensuring that Lessons Identified arrived at the institutions that needed to integrate them and make them Lessons Learned. Because there was no unity of effort in E&T, NATO had no idea of the gaps or unnecessary duplication of efforts. This approach was ineffective, inefficient and unaffordable.

Transformation was neededThe takeover of the responsibility for collective

training by Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT) created the opportunity to look holistically at E&T. Since the individual’s preparation is a prerequisite for collective effectiveness, we view individual training and collective training as a closely interconnected continuum. Once that link is realised, the operational requirements constitute the drivers for all E&T efforts.

In order to manage the mass of requirements, we group them into disciplines. For every discipline, a Requirements Authority (RA) collects and expresses the requirements for E&T and acts as the final evaluator. Starting from these requirements, HQ SACT’s Joint Force Trainer (JFT) leads the development of a discipline-specific Strategic Training Plan (STP). This STP is a comprehensive picture of the considered discipline, identifying E&T needs and envisaged solutions.

The approval of the STP by the North Atlantic Council (NAC) sets off the next steps: the appointment of the RA and the Department Head

and collective programmes used to satisfy NATO’s requirements. The intent is to ensure E&T remains aligned with evolving needs, available technology and resources.

Supported by the ADC, the Training Integration Process (TIP) constitutes the production planning, resulting in annual updates to the Individual Training and Education Programme and the Military Training and Exercise Programme. The pivotal event in the TIP is NATO’s Training Synchronisation Conference that serves as the final stage for identifying solutions to meet NATO’s education and training needs by assembling nations and stakeholders.

To make the E&T opportunities known, there is the Training Management System. This is an integrated, transparent and on-line system that provides execution and administrative details, with an embedded Education and Training Opportunities Catalogue.

Involving allTo conduct E&T activities continuously in

the most effective, efficient and affordable manner, the commitment of all stakeholders is necessary. We must leverage the knowledge of NATO and member nations’ Subject Matter Experts to ensure the optimal usage of all available resources. NATO Education and Training Facilities, NATO-accredited Centres of Excellence and NATO-recognised Partner Training and Education Centres as well as National/ Multinational Training Institutions, education and training facilities from partner nations, Intergovernmental Organisations (like UN, EU), and Non-Governmental Organisations (like ICRC, universities) are all invited to offer matching solutions.

By integrating continuous improvement and connecting individual preparation to collective training, E&T in NATO is transforming. Evolution from a ‘Build-us-a-course’ approach towards a systematic, holistic approach of matching requirements with solutions is occurring and represents a new era in NATO E&T.

Our NATO E&T system: an engine of transformation in full transition. n

(DH) as well as the Training Requirements Analysis (TRA). The TRA captures existing training and education opportunities potentially available to the Alliance. It refines the intended target audiences, develops their performance objectives, and eventually matches the performance objectives with the available opportunities. In doing so, gaps in E&T within the relevant discipline are identified.

The DH receives the result of the TRA and leads the Training Needs Analysis (TNA) to define the learning objectives required to eliminate gaps previously identified. This TNA initiates a systems approach to training. This ultimately results in the provision of quality education and individual and collective training-solutions that satisfy NATO’s needs.

The DH is responsible for the translation of the requirements into solutions for the individual and collective training spectrum, and for the coordination of the solution providers. The DH will assemble a discipline E&T programme and strive to ensure that solutions are delivered in the most effective, efficient and affordable manner through NATO, its member nations, partners and other non-NATO entities. The DH is a volunteer organisation, normally from outside the NATO Command Structure, with sufficient expertise in the pertinent discipline and specifically the capacity to manage solutions. It is not necessarily involved with the delivery of education and training.

The Annual Discipline Conference (ADC) is the annual forum revisiting the discipline E&T programme. The RA reviews, confirms or modifies the requirements while the DH reviews the adequacy of the individual

Training of Public Affairs Officers at the NATO School in Oberammergau, Germany. Photo: MC2 Bennett, ACT

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16 The Transformer

NATO Training – ‘Way Ahead’ from CardiffThe Connected Forces Initiative has proven versatile and serves well as a fundament for the Readiness Action Plan approved by the Cardiff Summit. The number of NATO exercises has been increased substantially, and we will now aim at improving quality based on requirements from the Summit.

By Captain Morten Svinndal, Norwegian Navy, Executive Assistant to Deputy Chief of Staff Joint Force Trainer (DCOS JFT)

The NATO Summit in Wales was an ex-tremely important milestone for NATO Education and Training – in the sense that the direction and guidance coming

out of the Summit serves as a continuation of the Con-nected Forces Initiative Implementation Plan (CFI IP) that is already under execution. It is interesting to note that NATO nations already in Chicago 2012 instructed the NATO Military Authori-ties (NMAs) to create a plan that has proven versatile for challenges that have occurred after 2013. The intention of CFI was to intensify training, in order to avoid a decline in interoperability caused by the reduction of training when NATO operations were winding down. The directions to NMAs accentuated that NATO forces should be trained for all contingencies and “re-learn” lessons that were not prioritised during two de-cades of Crisis Response Operations.

Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT) took over the responsibility for programming of all exercises and planning of strategic level exercises from December 2012. The number of strategic level exercises has been increased from one in 2013 to four in 2014, and in 2015 we are planning TRIDENT JUNCTURE 15 (TRJE 15), the first major NATO Live Exercise (LIVEX) in a decade. This pattern, with four to five strategic exercises every year, and a major combined Computer Assisted Exercise (CAX)/LIVEX every third year, is the baseline for CFI in preparing for ‘NATO Forces 2020’. We will use the lessons from TRJE 15 and previous exercises to prepare for the next major CAX/LIVEX in 2018, for which Norway has offered to be host nation.

The directions from the Cardiff Summit mean that the exercise baseline will need to be adjusted with any new and/ or revised requirements for NATO Response Force (NRF) training. The creation of a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) will necessitate adjustment of the training program. Whether the VJTF training can be facilitated within

the already planned exercises, or require new venues, is still to be decided. The Summit declaration direction for short notice exercises is a new element that ACT is working with, in order to integrate it in the overall exercise program. Deputy Chief of Staff Joint Force Trainer (DCOS JFT) will also continue improving quality in exercises as well as quantity. Joint Warfare Centre in Stavanger, Norway and Joint Force Training

Centre in Bydgoszcz, Poland are crucial contributors to this work, in close cooperation with all elements of Allied Command Operations (ACO) and the NATO Force Structure.

Training comprehensive responses to complex civil-military responses will require a closer and more tangible relationship to international – and non-governmental organisations (IOs and NGOs). DCOS JFT will explore all possibilities within the existing modalities described in the new NATO Education Training Exercise and Evaluation (ETEE) Policy (MC-458/3) to further involve IOs and NGOs in NATO training. This work has already started with more than 15 organisations so far involved in TRJE 15.

Another training requirement stated in the Cardiff Declaration is the need to develop exercise scenarios in light of hybrid threats. We think that can be done within the two main exercise scenarios we are using today, both for Collective Defence and

Exercising NATO staffs and Headquarters in procedures, planning of operations and problem-solving is essential in NATO training.

Crisis Response Operations. In fact, we have already to some extent inserted hybrid threat elements in exercises like the recent STEADFAST PYRAMID/ PINNACLE key leader training in Riga, Latvia. We will continue this work and include it in the future plans for development of exercise scenarios.

The two decades we have experienced with NATO operations have clearly showed the importance

of interoperability with partners, an issue that was accentuated after the Cardiff summit as well as after the previous summit in Chicago. The CFI plans are a very good platform for maintaining and further developing interoperability with partners; we already have seven partners approved for TRJE 15 participation and we will continue to involve more within the framework of MC-458/3. It is important to be aware that NATO training programmes like the Military Training and Exercise Programme (MTEP) and the Individual Training and Education Programme (ITEP) are available for partners. This gives partners almost the same ability to plan ahead as NATO nations have, with more focus on

long-term planning.An essential part of the CFI Implementation Plan

is Global Programming. This, as described in another article in this edition of The Transformer, is a long-term endeavour, but has the potential to coordinate military education and training, and facilitate interoperability training; mending gaps and avoiding duplication, between NATO nations, partners and IOs.

As part of the assurance measures mentioned in the Declaration, Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and HQ SACT have had a very fruitful cooperation based on the JFT exercise programming function. This will continue as long as required and will be developed into the established routines. The process has exposed a vastly increased volume of national exercise information that can be utilised for even better coordination in the future, and a greatly increased NATO and member nation exercise tempo. n

OR&A: Supporting Long Term Capability Development and Transformation for NATOOperational Research and Analysis (OR&A) is the application of advanced analytical methods to aid in decision making. Traditionally used to support operations, it is now also routinely applied to long-term capability development as well.

W ith a constantly evolving threat environment, the task of identifying the correct capabilities to be

developed in the long term is increasingly challenging, and this is compounded by the fact that capability development decisions routinely result in procurement costs in the millions of Euros or Dollars. Clearly, it is de-sirable to make the best decisions possible. In order to better address this complex decision space, Operational Research and Analysis (OR&A) provides evidence-based support to decision-makers through the application of the scientific method.

BackgroundThe practice of OR&A is to apply a

range of techniques and processes in order to determine the exact issue to be addressed, identify a methodology for solving the problem, and then execute the data collection and analysis required. Approaches range from hard analysis techniques such as optimisation, modelling, and computer simulation, to soft analysis techniques such as problem formulation, facilitation, and creative thinking.

The military origins of OR&A stem from World War II, where scientists used mathematical techniques to address some of the most challenging problems faced by the Allies, such as reducing munitions expenditures and improving anti-submarine warfare techniques. Since WWII, the role of OR&A in NATO has expanded, with practitioners present throughout the Command Structure as well as within many member nations.

Highlighting the importance of OR&A within the Alliance, in 2011 the North Atlantic Council (NAC) tasked the Science & Technology Board to conduct a study on OR&A within NATO. A key outcome of this study was the creation of a NATO OR&A Community of Interest, building upon earlier ACT initiatives in this area.

Supporting Capability DevelopmentThe overall process of capability development

spans multiple areas of activity, from the derivation of requirements to the analysis of potential solutions. Against this spectrum, OR&A is used to advise those making decisions in the best way possible.

At the outset of long-term capability development, i.e. the derivation of requirements, the Strategic Commands employ OR&A practitioners from the NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA) to conduct analysis with the necessary rigour and traceability to generate a minimum set of capability requirements.

With a capability-based set of requirements in hand, the focus turns to the investigation of future solutions. It is here that the Alliance needs to embrace effective, pragmatic, efficient innovation and in this OR&A plays an important supporting role – by providing the framework for analysis of options and the exploration of innovative concepts.

An analysis of options is the systematic study of various proposed solutions with respect to a pre-defined set of criteria covering areas such as performance and cost. OR&A techniques support identifying and providing key, unbiased information to decision-makers about the various solution options.

In exploring innovation, OR&A provides invaluable support to ACT’s Concept Development and

Experimentation (CD&E), where NATO takes new technologies and innovative ideas and applies them to close capability gaps; such as the OR&A work in support of the Security Force Assistance concept or the development of the Operations Assessment Handbook.

Understanding the characteristics of requirements in the future is crucial for NATO transformation. As part of the NATO Science & Technology Organization’s (STO) Programme of Work, the Joint Operations 2030 (TR-SAS-066) study applied OR&A techniques to identify a range of war-fighting capabilities including some challenging capabilities not found in current day plans, such as “forward operational planning for complex endeavours across the different stages and in a multi-agency environment.”

Also under the STO, the Centre for Maritime Research & Experimentation (CMRE) has a long history of providing OR&A support to capability development in the maritime environment, such as analysing the complex challenges of counter-piracy operations.

When it comes to development and delivery of capabilities, the STO System Analysis and Studies Panel has recently completed a study on Cost Efficiency Implications of International Cooperation (STO-TR-SAS-090), which examined the various economic factors of multinational cooperation and developed an associated decision support tool to further enable Smart Defence projects.

NATO OR&A: Analytical Support to Transformation

In short, NATO OR&A has a broad range of roles and practitioners in support of long-term capability development and transformation in NATO. With fora such as the NATO OR&A Community of Interest, and events such as the annual co-hosted ACT-STO OR&A Conference, OR&A remains a growing, visible contributor to NATO decision-making, especially in the areas of capability development and transformation. n

By Mr. Neil Carson, Canadian Civilian, STO-Office of the Chief Scientist at NATO Headquarters and Mr. Han De Nijs, Dutch Civilian, Operational Analysis Branch at Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation

From analysis of alternatives to concept development and experimentation, OR&A provides

comprehensive support to decision makers.

The Transformer 17

NATO Shortfalls — How Short Are We? How Can We Grow?NATO capability shortfalls limit the extent to which the Alliance can achieve its level of ambition. How is Allied Command Transformation addressing the issues?

By Colonel Ed Freely, British Army, Branch Head Capabilities, Targets Review (CTR), ACT Staff Element Europe (SEE)

The economic crisis continues to have an impact on the defence plans of almost every country in the NATO Alliance. Defence spending has declined, resulting

in reduced deployable manpower, training and – more worryingly – significant cuts in capability. The past decade has seen NATO achieve considerable success on demanding, enduring, low-intensity operations in Afghanistan, the Somali Basin and the Mediter-ranean, but shortfalls limit NATO in other areas. Nations now face the challenge of reconfiguring for contingent capability and enhancing responsiveness and interoperability against a backdrop of suppressed defence budgets.

Defence Planning in NATO identifies what is needed to successfully accomplish our missions in the future; it also encourages the member nations to develop the necessary forces and capabilities. The NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) provides the overarching, harmonising framework for all Transformation efforts. NDPP is where Transformation initiatives (e.g. Smart Defence (SD), Connected Forces Initiative (CFI), and Framework Nations Concept (FNC) amongst others) are fused coherently to ensure Allies invest efficiently and effectively to meet NATO’s future capability requirements. Within the NDPP cycle, specific steps focus on facilitating the implementation of Capability Development targets and reviewing results.

Allied Command Transformation (ACT) has a key role within NDPP and is promoting associated initiatives to “Transform the Alliance”. First, ACT has been at the heart of assessing the military risk between NATO’s Level of Ambition (LoA) and its actual capabilities and plans. This was expressed formally in the 2014 Bi-Strategic Command (Bi-SC) Suitability and Risk Assessment (SRA). The SRA identified shortfalls in specific capability areas such as Command & Control (C2), Joint Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (JISR) and Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD). In addition there remains over-reliance on one Ally for the provision of high-end conflict spectrum enabling capabilities. The analysis also noted that the focus on current operations has seen reduced component and collective joint Air/

Corps headquarters (HQ) exercising with affiliated subordinate Allied formations in expanded format, making combined use of live, synthetic, distributed or Command Post Exercise (CPX) formats to practice operational vignettes to develop integration and interoperability.

• Innovative multinational capabilitydevelopment efforts such as SD projects could be further exploited to generate capabilities more efficiently, with the understanding that resulting savings should be re-invested in addressing priority shortfalls.

• The next and enhanced NDPP cyclepresents an opportunity to apply national and NATO lessons from operations to target requirements more clinically, in line with the range of operations and missions. This might, for example, include reviewing readiness levels and greater use of Reserves.

• Industryandtheprivatesectorshouldplayagreater role in the development of innovative solutions for NATO’s requirements. Closer relationships between Industry and NATO should see enhanced fulfillment of Alliance needs.

Beyond Transformation initiatives, ACT continues to contribute to the practical implementation of Capability Development targets, to address shortfalls and enhance interoperability. Examples of this are the work ACT conducts with other Alliance stakeholders in implementation task forces in areas such as Counter Improvised Explosive Devices (C-IED), Interoperability and JISR.

Looking ahead, the Alliance must remain alert to changes in the strategic environment and adapt accordingly. The recent events in Eastern Europe underline the importance of updating our military capabilities to ensure the Alliance can address the security requirements of the 21st Century. ACT’s strategic foresight work and analysis of future instability factors will influence the next, enhanced NDPP cycle and ensure scarce resources are focused on future priorities in line with the aims of longer term Transformation. n

Land formation training; this has resulted in a reduced ability to respond to crises and to conduct joint, multinational, high-intensity operations.

However, ACT’s contribution to the SRA not only identified and prioritised shortfalls but also proposed potential mitigation measures. The SRA informed the Military Committee’s advice and subsequent development of the NATO 2014 Capability Report for Defence Ministers. The resulting 16 Defence Planning Priorities for NATO were highlighted for the attention of Heads of State and Government at the Wales Summit.

The 2014 SRA proposed a number of areas for improvement, briefly summarised below:

• Readiness and responsiveness should beenhanced, and risk reduced, by commitment to national and NATO training using a framework of affiliated forces for training and operations.

• TheConnectedForcesInitiative(CFI)shouldbe fully exploited by Allies and partners to link their national, individual and collective Training and Exercise programmes with NATO for mutual support and benefit. Increased training at national, component and NATO levels will develop interoperability, achieve deterrent effect and drive Capability Development.

• Exploitation of the Framework NationsConcept (FNC) could see larger nations with

18 The Transformer

Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO) The next steps of the collaborative effort

“I see FFAO as an indispensable tool to provide the MC with a vehicle to refine long term military capability requirements, as well as doctrine, training and exercises.

FFAO is a key to inform next NDPP cycle.” Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) in his speech to the Military Committee in Chiefs of Staff Session, 21 May 2014.

The soldiers who will serve in the Armed Forces of NATO’s member nations in 2030 have already been born. It is a collective responsibility of the present generation to prepare the Alliance for the challenges of 2030 and beyond. Allied Command Transformation’s (ACT) Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) 2013 prepared the ground for further research, identifying future themes, trends and defence and security implications for the Alliance in 2030. FFAO will build on the SFA, providing a long-term input to the NATO Defence Planning Process and pointing towards new capabilities, concepts, training and doctrine that the Alliance may need to prepare for the year of 2030.

The 2030 Future Security Environment that NATO must take into consideration is shaped by the intersection of the answers to the following questions:

WHO might NATO operate against?

It seems likely that NATO operations in the future will be conducted against a combination of state and non-state actors working in concert. These combinations of state and non-state actors and proxies will be less responsive to traditional deterrence because the state sponsors can plausibly deny sole responsibility for their actions, while non-state actors may not possess resources or assets that can be credibly threatened by military force.

WHERE might NATO operate? Military operations in the future will mostly likely

be conducted in un or under-governed regions, highly complex terrain and in the global commons, including space and cyberspace. While threats and attacks in these areas and domains may have clear negative security consequences for NATO nations, operations in these areas may test NATO resolve as they fall outside of NATO’s traditional territorial focus, and occur where

By Lieutenant Commander Jim Maher, United States Navy, C3 Information Assurance-Cyber Defence

the Alliance may not have clear, pre-existing policies – and the current legal framework offers opportunities to potential adversaries.

WHY might NATO conduct operations?

Large, rapidly growing populations in the developing world combined with increased resource scarcity will lead to increased catastrophic effects of natural disasters, destabilising migration, and increased instability around the periphery of NATO. These situations will not have clear military solutions, but rather would call for increased partnerships with non-military organisations to achieve desired objectives of the Alliance.

The FFAO is being developed by ACT and Allied Command Operations (ACO), working with a community of interest from throughout the Alliance. A series of workshops has been held to analyse the results of the SFA and develop ideas that can be used to inform long-term defence planning.

In April 2014 at a workshop in Budapest, experts from 21 NATO member and Partner countries developed the first of three parts of the FFAO, Instability Situations. Instability Situations are generic descriptions of future events, crises, or conflicts that may lead to NATO military involvement. They provide a background against which to develop perspectives on conflict that may drive future military and other requirements. The Instability Situations cover a broad spectrum of crises and conflict that NATO could face in 2030, from large-scale disasters (either natural or man-

made), disruptive impacts of migration, political and economic attacks, or assaults on critical infrastructure, to conventional state-versus-state warfare. The spectrum of potential opponents that NATO may encounter includes non-state actors working alone – or in collaboration and coordination with states, or with other non-state actors.

These Instability Situations were subsequently analysed, and provided data for the development of the second part of FFAO, Strategic Military Perspectives, during the next workshop in Amsterdam in June 2014. Strategic Military Perspectives (SMP) will suggest changes in how NATO might execute the three Core Tasks in 2030 and beyond. These perspectives are strategic military advice from SACT and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) that provide guiding principles to inform long-term military transformation – including NATO defence planning.

The underlying theme of the Instability Situations is that future threats may occur inside and outside of NATO’s traditional conventional, territorial, state-centred focus. Future threats will seek to operate in the “grey areas” or “seams” of the Alliance, evading deterrence through deniability, complicating consensus through non-territorial attacks, and avoiding conventional confrontation through hybrid conflict. SFA and FFAO, to date, point to a more unconventional nature of future threats.

Preparing NATO for the future is the responsibility of the current generation. ACT’s Futures work allows the Washington Treaty and what it stands for to also ‘work’ for our next generation. n

Photo: ISAF

The Transformer 19

20 The Transformer 20 The Transformer

A Finnish simulated casualty being made ready for evacuation under the watchful eyes of OCC evaluators. Evaluator Training Course 27 May 2014. Photo: FINCENT

The Evaluation and Feedback Programme

In 2004, OCC started the programme that is its hallmark today: The Evaluation and Feedback Programme, or E&F. By 2013, 15 nations had joined, offering 90 units to the OCC Pool of Forces. Nearly 40 units had passed the “NATO Evaluation Level 2”, identical to NATO’s own evaluations. The OCC Section in the Bi-Strategic Command (Bi-SC) Military Partnerships Directorate in Mons, Belgium administers this activity.

The units come from all parts of the armed forces. They range from EOD teams to reinforced battalion battle groups, ships up to frigate size, fighter squadrons, transport helicopter units and strategic air transport, as well as a role 2 hospital.

What’s in it for Partners?For several partners, OCC has been a tool to

drive transformation. The understanding is sinking in that the key issue is not the evaluation itself, but what

you do between the evaluations. OCC promotes the use of a Remedial Action Plan. The Plan addresses the key shortfalls identified in evaluations describing ac-tion to take, responsibility and timelines. Action such as courses, training teams and exercise participation can be taken in cooperation with NATO.

The main reward is improved access to NATO’s operations and exercises. With access to evaluation re-ports, suitability can be assessed rapidly. While OCC will never be able to evaluate all Partner units in op-erations, OCC is now NATO’s preferred option for approving units. To this end, OCC Section supports Force Generation.

Several Partners use the evaluation tools in na-tional training. A good example is Austria, where a na-tional evaluation system is based on NATO standards and procedures. No unit is being sent abroad without an evaluation based on OCC.

The ConcernsOCC has had some focus in preparations for

the NATO Summit. It is agreed that OCC should continue without major changes. The main concern is resources.

There are 23 Partner posts in OCC, but only 14 have been filled. Evaluations take the focus, at the ex-pense of analysis and development, reducing long-term benefit.

The majority of evaluators are Partner person-nel, drawn from the various countries. An integral part of the programme is the exchange of evaluators. This gives each Partner country solid experience. Yet OCC must guarantee that units are evaluated to NATO standards. OCC credibility relies on the strict integrity of the individual evaluator and the presence of person-nel from NATO nations.

Partners’ ViewsPartner countries find OCC a very good tool.

Countries from Kazakhstan to Sweden put consider-able effort into training and equipping their troops for evaluations. The more advanced countries are using NATO’s evaluation regime into their national training systems, employing NATO standards. From NATO’s

point of view, this is almost ideal.Yet, for some partners, NATO stan-

dards of interoperability and capability can be a financial challenge. OCC will see varying levels of activity driven by fluctua-tions in the economic situation in partner countries. NATO sponsors travel and training for individuals from many partner countries, but the cost for meeting stan-dards remains a national responsibility. In this context, bilateral training support is most welcome.

The Way AheadThe way ahead depends on where

NATO is heading. Indications are that NATO will require fewer troops for operations after 2014. A given consequence is that OCC will be able to evalu-

ate a greater portion of Partner contributions to op-erations. A possible consequence is that Partners will seek new ways to cooperate with NATO, OCC being one option. Furthermore, participation in the NATO Response Force (NRF) is clearly linked to OCC par-ticipation. This could indicate that OCC should grow over the next few years.

At the same time, it is prudent to remember that crisis response operations are just that — response to a crisis. They do not come to be as the result of long-term strategic thinking. NATO can therefore not give up the more flexible options for generating forces — not even Partner forces. n

Operational Capabilities Concept In 1999, NATO Heads of State and Government met at the Washington Summit, commemorating the Alliance’s 50th anniversary. One of the outcomes of this Summit was the Operational Capabilities Concept, commonly abbreviated as OCC. Now, 15 years later, where does the OCC stand?

By Lieutenant Colonel Morten Mo, Norwegian Army, OCC Section Chief, Military Partnership Directorate (MPD)

TOP PROBLEM AREAS FOR PARTNER UNITS• Englishasoperationallanguage• NATOtactics/procedures• Communication/voiceprocedures• Securityoperations• CBRNDefence• EODandCIED• ROE• Documentandinformationsecurity

Partner countries find OCC a very good tool. Countries from

Kazakhstan to Sweden put considerable effort into training and

equipping their troops for evaluations.

Chiefs Of TransformationSupreme Allied Commander Transformation

16-18 December 2014 | Norfolk Waterside Marriot Hotel

Headquarters, Supreme Allied Commander

Transformation, will host the 2014 Chiefs

of Transformation Conference to improve

relationships, interaction and practical

co-operation with nations, partners, and

international organisations.

TransaTlanTic Forum 2015

28-29 January 2015Washington dC

The Transatlantic Forum 2015 (TAF 15) is a 2-day strategic seminar on 28-29 January 2015 in Washington dC, which gathers political, military, academic, and think tank subject matter experts from north America and europe for roundtable discussions. There are two key objectives for TAF 15: (1) Promote strategic level discussion, which enables the supreme Allied Commander Transformation to identify whether his transformation agenda is on track and discover invaluable insight for a greater understanding of the north American perspective on the topics and (2) raise ACT’s profile in the Us. By covering a range of timely and relevant topics such as the future security environment, hybrid warfare, and readiness, TAF 15 is an opportunity to develop actionable highly qualitative outcomes that can be carried forward to future ACT seminars, including the nATO Transformation seminar in March 2015. TAF 15 consists of a keynote public discussion on 28 January followed the next day by moderated discussions.

North American and European Perspectives on the Future Security Environment

HybridWarfare•Readiness•StrategicInnovation

Allied Com

mand Transform

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Photo by Technical Sergeant Sylvia Wiemers, German Air Force