a bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the third pole)...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole)
Valérie Masson-DelmotteLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement
(CEA-CNRS-UVSQ/IPSL)Gif-sur-Yvette, France
3rd TPE Workshop, Reykjavik, Iceland – August 2011
![Page 2: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why study past climate change?
Huybers and Curry, Nature, 2006
• Expand the short instrumental recordsNatural climate variability« Slow » components: ocean, carbon cycle, ice sheets
• Understand the response of climate to forcingsDetection / attributionClimate feedbacksThresholds
• Natural case studies to benchmark Earth System models
Seasonal cycle
Glacial-interglacial cycles
![Page 3: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Ice cores
ICELocal climate
AEROSOLS Regional atmospheric aerosol content:Sea salt, dust, volcanism, solar activity, pollutants…
AIRGlobal atmospheric compositionFirnification processes
![Page 4: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Deep polar ice cores
NorthGRIP~ 125 000 yrs EDML : 140 000 yrs EDC : 800 000 yrs
European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA)
NEEM?
![Page 5: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The greening of Greenland
Masson-Delmotte et al, submitted; updates from Bhatt et al, 2010 and van den Broeke et al, 2009
Greenland ice sheet mass balance
![Page 6: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
20°C
a)
b)
c)
+2.5°C/century
+4.7°C/century
Saqqaq
Independence I
Early Dorset
Independence II
Late Dorset
Norse
Thule
8
4
0
-4
Gre
enla
nd (°
C)
-8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000years A.D.
-44
-40
-36
-32
18O
(°/
oo)
120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0
years before A.D.2000
500
70°N June insolation (W
/m²)
8
4
0
-4
Greenland
(°C
)
208020402000196019201880
years A.D.
2001-2010
2010
last millennium
last millennium
1961-1990
a)
70°N June insolation NGRIP ice core smoothed NGRIP
stack ice core smoothed stack instrumental data
Year 2010 instrumental data MAR forced by ERA40 MAR forced by ERA-INTERIM MAR forced by ECHAM A1B
Instrumental data
Projections (A1B)
Ice core perspective : the last 10 000 years
Greenland cultures
Orbital forcing
Ice core perspective : the last 125 000 years
Masson-Delmotte et al, submitted; data from NGRIP, Nature 2004 and Vinther et al, Nature, 2009
Past, present and projected changes
![Page 7: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
126 ka (orbital forcing) 2xCO2
DJF
JJA
ann
Limited analogies between past and future climate change
IPSL climate model
Masson-Delmotte et al, Clim Past, in press
• Comparable magnitude of summer warming and feedbacks at mid to high latitudes north• Major differences in low-high latitude temperature gradients and seasonality
![Page 8: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Global impacts of Greenland melt in climate projections
• global sea level
• Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• negative feedback on Arctic warming
• ITCZ shifts with major impacts on monsoonprecipitation
Masson-Delmotte et al, submitted; simulations from Swingedouw et al, J. Climate, 2009Masson-Delmotte et al, submitted; data from NGRIP, Nature 2004 and Vinther et al, Nature, 2009
![Page 9: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
EPICA, Nature, 2006; Steffenson et al, Science, 2008; Capron et al, Clim. Past, 2010; Masson-Delmotte et al, PNAS, 2010
The Greenland-Antarctic bipolar seesaw
Full glacial conditions
Glacial inception
Precursors: dust from Chinese deserts, Greenland moisture origin shifts
![Page 10: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
25242322
obliq
uity2520151050
Age (ky BP)
40x10-3200
-20
pre
cess
ion
-10
-8
-6
Calcite
O
280
240
200
CO
2
16
12
8
4
NA
87-2
2 S
ST
(°C
)
3000200010000
IRD
-45
-40
-35
-30
Gre
enla
nd
600
500
400
300
meth
ane
10
8
6
4
deu
teri
um
exc
ess
-440
-420
-400
-380
D
10
8
6
4
deu
teri
um
exc
ess
140135130125120115
Age (ky BP)
3000200010000
IRD
2625242322
obliq
uity
40x10-3200
-20p
rece
ssio
n
-10
-8
-6
Calcite
O
600
500
400
300
meth
ane
280
240
200
CO
2
-440
-420
-400
-380
D
16
12
8
4OD
P98
0 S
ST
(°C
)-45
-40
-35
-30G
reen
lan
d
Masson-Delmotte et al, PNAS, 2010An Zhisheng et al, Science, 2011
Bipolar seesaw under interglacial conditions?
Antarctica T
Antarctic moisture source
Asian monsoon
Methane
CO2
N. Atlantic SST
Greenland T
Bipolar seesaw
Links between abrupt shifts in Antarctic moisture origin and monsoon
![Page 11: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
New tools for new challenges Searching for the oldest ice in Antarctica
Jouzel et al Science 2007, Loulergue et al Nature 2008, Lisiecki & Raymo Paleoceano 2005Masson-Delmotte et al, QSR, 2010; Jouzel and Masson-Delmotte, QSR, 2011
50x10-3
40302010
0Ex
centr
icit
y
120010008006004002000
Age (ky BP)
24.5
24.0
23.5
23.0
22.5
Ob
liqu
ity
-40x10-3
-200
2040
Pre
cess
ion 4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Ben
thic O-440
-420
-400
-380
D
280
240
200
CO
2
800700600500400300
CH
4
Present-day
Glacials
Interglacials
+5°C
-9°C
• Cause for the shift between 40 ky to 100 ky climatic cycles ?
• Oldest ice challenge
![Page 12: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Towards a tri-polar perspective on climate change
• Links between « northern pull », « southern push » and monsoon
• Sequence of events between tropical,mid latitude and polar atmospheric circulation
• Response of climate to major volcanic eruptions (importance for the decadal predictability of climate)
Chunming Shi et al, Clim. Past, submitted
![Page 13: A bipolar perspective on past climate change (and expectations for information from the Third Pole) Valérie Masson-Delmotte Laboratoire des Sciences du](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032805/56649eef5503460f94bfef92/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Towards a tri-polar perspective on climate change
• Exceptional monitoring effort for process-based understanding of the climatic drivers of precipitation isotopic composition
• Unique opportunity for a multi-archive TPE approach for reconstructing past precipitation d18O (ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments, speleothems…)
• Need of data syntheses for benchmarking climate models(CMIP5 includes paleoclimate simulations)
Yao Tandong et al, in preparation