a change of eras: a unique opportunity
TRANSCRIPT
centralized
decentralized
top-downbottom-up
big organisations flat organisations & networks
systems & structures initiatives & humans
fixed & rigid fluid & flexible
directing government facilitating government
Old Society New Society
banks financial cooperations
energy companies google, tesla, van de bron
taxi companies Uber
hotel chains Airbnb
book stores Amazon
Old Economy vs New Economy
Shift in Values
Old Values New Values
effectiveness attention / time
efficiency trust
control, maintenance space
rules & laws choice of freedom
quantity quality
Paradigm Shift
old worldview new worldview
exploitation model co-operation model
economic profit societal profit
linear processes circular
deriving values creating values
individual-driven community-driven
Prevailing Human View
homo economicus
self-interest driven
rational decisions
selfish behaviour
maximising utility
Prevailing World View
world as a market
driven by growth
driven by innovation
driven by competition
optimizing welfare
Regular Economic Models
general equilibirum or optimization models
substitution of resources when market allows for it
substitution mechanism is price-driven
one type of actor that behaves in a (bounded) rational manner
is not able to represent a transition type of pattern
no suitable tools for modelling transitions
Idividual Agent
Repetition
Deliberation Imitation
Social comparison
Cognitive processingMemory (mental
map)
Constraints
Uncertainties
Social NormsGoals and Beliefs
Decision
Strategy
Perspectivesmacro-developments
Interestsregime developments
Local Situationniche developments
Dilemma: Climate Change
short term solutions versuslong term solutions
reducing CO2 fast versusslowly reducing CO2
technological versuspolitical
Dilemma: Groningen Gas Winning
stop gas winning versuspursuing gas winning
importing gas versusshale gas
reinforcing houses versussustainable houses
Green Economy = ca. 4% of Total Economy (GDP)
Clean Tech = ca. 2% of Total Economy (GDP)
by now 2-4% of total economy
in 2025 11 - 21% at 15% growth per year
in 2030 22 - 43% at 15% growth per year
Green Economy in the Netherlands
Investment in New Economy every dollar invested in the new economyyields three dollars added value in terms of:
innovation employment economic structure
every dollar invested in the old economy costs society two dollars
Dilemma: Port of Rotterdam
continuing oil terminals versusstopping oil terminals
investing in LNG versusinvesting in bio economy
reinforcing houses versusdeveloping nichestrategy
Transition
fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in societal (sub)system
– structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure (market, consumption, production), institutions (rules, regulations,
actors)
– culture: collective set of values, norms, perspectives, paradigms
– practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling, at the individual level
incumbent structure, culture and practices need to bebroken down and new ones need to be built up
Transition is Evolutionary Revolution
evolutionary
old institutions die out, new institutions arise
labor unions, political parties versus communities and cooperations
revolutionary
process of radical, irreversible societal change
society 3.0 will become radically different: glocal, bottom-up, decentralized
Decay & Build-up
Transition = Power Shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at a small scale level
niche wants to develop power and take over incumbent regime regime protects itself against this through absorption, assimilation or elimination of niches
transition = regime-change = power shift
Transition Approach
provide incentives for radical innovation
create innovation spaces for radical innovation
bring together frontrunners in innovation spaces
start portfolio of transition experiments
Transition approach cycle
vision, pathways,transition agenda
transition arena
transition experiments
evaluation, monitoring learning
Transition Arena- long term- front runners- system innovation- problem / goal seraching
Different Arenas
Political Arena- short / medium term- peloton - incremental changes - problem- and goal oriented
Market Arena- short term- efficiency- profit / growth
facilitating
- creating radical innovation spaces
- removing barriers
- forming coalitions around frontrunners
- stimulating financial arrangements
Transition Policy
challenge market, mobilize society
phase 1 searching, learning, experimenting
phase 2 selecting, scaling up
phase 3 integrating in primary policy process
frontrunners
Transition Policy
Giving Direction
giving direction
clear and ambitious goals
sound rules of the game
fine-tuning developments in coherence
Providing Space innovation space mental space, juridical space, organisational
space
removing barriers
stimulating odd coalitions
70 barriers have been listed by private sector
operational, structural, fundamental and conflicting
23 operational barriers have been resolved
23 fundamental barriers have been discussed
9 conflicting barriers can not be resolved
Barriers
structural barriersresidual currents considered as waste in
law
fundamental barriersno level playing fieldimport taxes on bio-ethanol, not on naftano certificationno GMO possible
conflicting barriers risks of new chemical compounds and
mixturesgreen gas transport versus elektric
transportbio-products and food security
Barriers
Shift in Steering
old steering new steering
mono-actor steering networksteering
control, maintenance adaptive, anticipative
certainty uncertainty
simplexity complexity
directing facilitating
Dilemma: Multinational
old business model versusnew business model
cost-efficiency versusinvesting in many niches
traditional partners versusworking with start-ups
Dilemma: Start-up
traditional location versushub
collaboration versusindependent
growing big versusremaining small
bankruptcies of companies
OAD, De Harense Smit, It’s
reduced life expectancy of companies
last century: lifespan of 40-50 years
2013: lifespan of 15 years
Dutch companies NOT prepared
risk avoiding behaviour
too little technological innovation
too much focus on existing clients
short term financial performance
Short term fixation
1 out of 3 companies neglects business model
implies downfall of companies
little innovation in business models: in construction, energy, transportsector
Traditional Business Models
Survival of the Fittest
not the biggest companies will survive,
also not the smartest companies, but
the most adaptive companies
Transition Strategy
external change strategy
cooperation with niche-partners
internal change strategy
freshlookers, crossthinkers, entrepreneurs
Transition Strategy
successful companies
reserve time for change
create space for change
from a longer term orientation
Companies
Philips transforms into care company
DSM transforms into fine/biochemistry
cleaning company steps into health care
energy companies go into insurances
transformative change strategy
new clients
new business models
new orientation
requires change in culture and structure
Transition Strategy
has different phases:
1. pre-development [ consciousness ]
2. breakthrough [ strategy / mission ]
3. acceleration [ DNA of a company ]
4. consolidation [ execution ]
Transition within a company
Transition Phases of a Company
Take off
strategy/mission
Acceleration
DNA
Pre-development
consciousness
Stabilisation
execution
time
Sustainable Company