A Clash of Civilizations?A Clash of Civilizations? “ “The fundamental source of conflict in this new The fundamental source of conflict in this new

world will not be primarily ideological or primarily world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural. Nation states will remain the will be cultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the most powerful actors in world affairs, but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations and groups of different between nations and groups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominate global politics. The fault lines between dominate global politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”civilizations will be the battle lines of the future.”

Samuel P. Huntington

The Map of CivilizationsThe Map of Civilizations

Religion determines some Religion determines some civilizational borderscivilizational borders

Major religion(CIA Factbook 2001)

Buddhist (11)Hindu (3)Jewish (1)Muslim (49)Orthodox (11)Other (9)Protestant (46)Roman catholic (56)

““Identity” determines the restIdentity” determines the rest

West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?

Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” Sinic civilization: Originally called “Confucian.” What is the basis for this bloc?What is the basis for this bloc?

African civilization: Essentially what was left African civilization: Essentially what was left after drawing other civilizationsafter drawing other civilizations

Alignments shape civilizational Alignments shape civilizational conflictsconflicts

Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture Implication: “Fault Lines” and Culture Clashes Predict ConflictClashes Predict Conflict

DecreaseDecrease in conflicts in conflicts

““Islam Has Bloody Borders and Islam Has Bloody Borders and Bloody Innards”Bloody Innards”

a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders)a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders)

Middle East is unusually prone to warMiddle East is unusually prone to war

RegionRegion is a better predictor than is a better predictor than religionreligion: : non-Islamic ME states fight as much as non-Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME states, and Islamic non-ME Islamic ME states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much as non-Islamic non-states fight as much as non-Islamic non-ME statesME states

Which civilizations fight the most?Which civilizations fight the most?Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts….

…but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!

b. Internal War (Bloody Innards)b. Internal War (Bloody Innards)

ME region is more likely to experience political ME region is more likely to experience political terror and human rights violations BUT region terror and human rights violations BUT region again outperforms religionagain outperforms religionOil wealth correlates with both repression and Oil wealth correlates with both repression and civil war around the worldcivil war around the worldSome majority-Muslim countries are Some majority-Muslim countries are democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, democracies (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor Lebanon) – but most are poor and poor countries tend to experience violence and countries tend to experience violence and repressionrepression

Demographics of IslamDemographics of Islam

• What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? What percentage of Arabs are Muslim? • About 90%About 90%

• What percentage of Muslims are Arab?What percentage of Muslims are Arab?• About 20%About 20%

• The largest Muslim country is…The largest Muslim country is…• IndonesiaIndonesia

• Where do Muslims live?Where do Muslims live?• Only 33% live in the Middle EastOnly 33% live in the Middle East• 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa

Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?

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Does Does RivalryRivalry Matter? Matter?

Rivalry: Evidence for LearningRivalry: Evidence for Learning