a coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and … · 2020-02-07 · a coupled human...

A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in mountain communities

Jorge Ramirez, Tina Haisch, Olivia Martius, Heike Mayer, Chinwe Ifejika Speranza, and Margreth Keiler

Risk and Resilience Cluster: www.risk-resilience.giub.unibe.ch

Sources: planat.ch, air-worldwide.com, myswitzerland.com, swissinfo.ch

Physical shocks

Socio-economic shocks

Debris flow Flood

Less tourism Unemployment

Mountain communities are exposed to physical and socio-economic shocks

How resilient are mountain communities to these shocks?

BackgroundBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

1

Mountain community economic response to physical and socio-economic shocks

Full Recovery Partial Recovery Better than Expected Recovery


2

What magnitude and frequency of shocks are buffered by mountain communities?Do socio-economic or physical shocks have a greater affect on mountain communities?

Physical Shock

small med large

Socio-Econ Shock

Source: geology.com

Debris flow

Unemployment

Flood

small med large


3

• Spatial simulation of landscape and mountain community processes

• Fully coupled model• Landscape evolution model (LEM) that replicates floods and debris flows

• System dynamics model that replicates socio-economic interactions

• Develop a generic model that is loosely based on Swiss mountain communities, but is transferable to other mountainous regions• Data availability

• Model calibration possible with historic data

Modelling approachBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

4

Mountain Community

TypeGeographic

SizeIncome

LevelCommunity

Moral

Demand for Local Goods

Vulnerability Resilience Sustainability

Downwardspiral

Peripheral Small Low Low Low High Low Low

Stagnation Semi-urban Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

Upward spiral Urban Large High High High High High High

Sources: thomsonlakes.co.uk, derbund.ch, cbronline.com

Downward Spiral Stagnation Upward Spiral

Mountain communitiesBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

5

Mountain catchment with:

• Geographic scale: 20 m resolution topography

• Representative alpine catchment

• Area: 450 km2

• Elevations: 500 - 3700 m

• Steep slopes and isolated valleys

• Temporal scale: Present day to 2060

2 km Dam

Modelling scalesBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

6

sparse vegetation

glacier

grass

forestwater

Land cover

2 kmagriculture

settlement

Upward Spiral

Downward Spiral

Stagnation

• Representation of landcover & 3 community types• Model drivers include rainfall, snowfall, & snow melt

Landscape modelBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

7

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

(RAIN, SNOW)

DAM LAND COVER

DEBRIS FLOW

SEDIMENT

WATER

FLOOD

HAZARD

SETTLEMENT STRUCTURE

ENGINEERING WORKS

Socio-economic modelBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

8

• Model drivers are financial means, population dynamics, local employment,

• Additionally important are accessibility and attractiveness of the community

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

(DEMAND FOR PRODUCTS

AND SERVICES)

POPULATION DYNAMICS

(INCREASES/ DECREASES,

MIGRATION)

LOCAL EMPLOYMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

FINANCIAL MEANS

(TAXATION)

INVESTMENT

(MITIGATION, INFRASTRUCTURE,

PUBLIC SERVICES)

ACCESSIBILITY

ATTRACTIVENESS

LAND COVER AND


ECONOMIC SHOCK



AND SERVICES)

POPULATION DYNAMICS


MIGRATION)

LOCAL EMPLOYMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

FINANCIAL MEANS

(TAXATION)

INVESTMENT


PUBLIC SERVICES)

ACCESSIBILITY

ATTRACTIVENESS

LAND COVER AND


ECONOMIC SHOCK

DAMAGE

PHYSICAL SHOCK

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

(RAIN, SNOW)

DAM LAND COVER

DEBRIS FLOW

SEDIMENT

WATER

FLOOD

HAZARD


ENGINEERING WORKS

Linkage: Damage and LossBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

Intensity of rainfall most important in movement of sediment and causing floods


10

storms

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m)

Time (days)

water depthhigh

low


11

Time (days)

1 2 3 4 5

0

100

200

300

400

500D

isch

arge

(m

3s-1

)Flood Hydrograph



AND SERVICES)

POPULATION DYNAMICS


MIGRATION)

LOCAL EMPLOYMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

FINANCIAL MEANS

(TAXATION)

INVESTMENT


PUBLIC SERVICES)

ACCESSIBILITY

ATTRACTIVENESS

LAND COVER AND


ECONOMIC SHOCK

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

(RAIN, SNOW)

DAM LAND COVER

DEBRIS FLOW

SEDIMENT

WATER

FLOOD

HAZARD


ENGINEERING WORKS

Linkage: MitigationBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

River Engineering: Flooding Levees, DamsDebris Flows Check dams, retention basins

Levees Check dams Retention basin

Sources: footage.framepool.com

Linkage: MitigationBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

13



AND SERVICES)

POPULATION DYNAMICS


MIGRATION)

LOCAL EMPLOYMENT

OPPORTUNITIES

FINANCIAL MEANS

(TAXATION)

INVESTMENT


PUBLIC SERVICES)

ACCESSIBILITY

ATTRACTIVENESS

LAND COVER AND


ECONOMIC SHOCK

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

(RAIN, SNOW)

DAM LAND COVER

DEBRIS FLOW

SEDIMENT

WATER

FLOOD

HAZARD


ENGINEERING WORKS

Linkage: LandcoverBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

sparse vegetation

glacier

grass

forestwater

Land cover

agriculture

settlement

Forested Transition

Settlement Transition

Initial State

Linkage: LandcoverBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

15

ConclusionBackground > Approach > Models > Key Linkages > Conclusion

16

• Our modelling approach will be able to determine the resilience of different mountain communities to combined physical and socio-economic shocks

• We consider linkages between both systems

• The conceptual model is generic and can be applied to most Alpine mountain communities

• Future work will focus on the development of the conceptual model using existing computer models

a coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and … · 2020-02-07 · a coupled human...

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