12th Arrábida Forum Rethinking the Future of Information Society: the next 20 years

A few inspiring snapshots from a journey into 2050's digital futures

Arrábida, 11 October 2013

2015-2025 (?)

2010-2014 2015-2019

Barroso II

2010-2020 (Europe 2020) + Anticipation

+ Evidence

+ Participation

Citizen's Engagement

Futures

Next College

Key Issues

Make sense

Co-create

Influence

Purpose

Co-Creation

• Bottom-up • Spontaneous • Emergent

Sense Making

• Top-Down • Structured • Convergent

Workflow (2)

Outcomes

Digital Futures

Futures

100+ Events, 2000+ co-creators

20 FutureFridays

1150> Futurium members

Breaking into new policy making practices

Futurium model

20+ Requests for take-up

Themes

Futures

Policy ideas

Evidence items

ICT at the crossroad of future science and policy developments

New materials

Long term advances in ICT

Graphene Spintronics Quantum

Cognitive

hardware

Bio-computing

Internet

Big Data Super

computing

Simulation Swarm

intelligence

Nano robotics

Photonics

Organic

computing

3D printing

Autonomous

systems

Mix reality Human enhancement Energy positive

Trust technologies

The down of a trans-humanistic era

What are the ethical and regulatory implications?

Will people adapt?

What are the opportunities?

Science &Technology

Economy

Environment Personal

Life

Society

Governance

Implants

Identity

Bioethics

Super-

senses Eco-friendly

Regulation & law

Organ

farms Nano-

robots

Plug&Play

Human

Performance Safety

Freedom

& control

Preventing

Divides Productivity

growth

Adaptation

Acceptance

Super-centenarian societies

How to harness the opportunity of an ageing population?

How to ensure inter-generational dialogue?

How to prevent new divides?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Nano-surgery

Inter-

generational

dialogue

Ageing

society

Super-

senses

Demographic

control

Regenerative

medicine

VPH

Productivity

growth

Wisdom

Families

Preventing

Divides Healthcare

Sustainability

Personalized

medicine

Cradle-to-grave, work and play

How to stop erosion of job market?

How to ensure a lifelong learning for all?

How can we build a liquid welfare?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Flexibility

Concurrent

sourcing

Liquid

welfare

Lifelong

learning

Technology

aversion

Shared jobs

Wages Personal

aspirations

Nonlinear

turnover

Inter-

generational

clashes

Digital

Technologies

Lifelong

entrepreneurship

New economic models

How to break the debt conundrum?

How to build the foundations for a new economic system?

How to harness the new geo-localisation of prosumption?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Systemic

Automation 3D Printing

Do-It-Yourself

Just-in-time

Productivity

growth Crowd

funding

Non-monetary

systems

Circular

economy

Co-growth

New indexes

Internet

Sustainability

equations

Agile

governance

Re-

localization

Social

Innovation

Lifestyles

New actors and polarities

How to ensure right balances?

What rules for Big Data?

How to make sense of the emergent intelligence?

How to fill the skills gaps?

A new bill of right reflecting new EU values in digital transformation?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Empower

ment

Social

Media Big Data

Trust

Personal

data

Jurisdiction

Identity

EU Values

Grant &

Revoke rights

Tradeoffs

Literacy

Transparency

Evidence

Mindset

change

Collective

intelligence

Standard

Rules

Democracy

Arts, sciences and humanities

How to achieve the involvement of policy makers and civic society?

How to assure the quality and credibility of data and models being used?

How to ensure reward and recognition and prevent plagiarism?

How creativity can be reflected into innovation?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Big Data

HPC

Models Simulation

Rewarding

Innovation

Virtualisation

Virtual labs

Crowd

financed

research

Global

Systems

analysis

Decision

making

Sustainability

Lifestyles

Creativity

Training

Narratives

Productivity

IPR

Learning

How to achieve universal access to learning?

How to maintain quality within a 'liquid' system

How to ensure that education leads to better jobs and innovation?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Blurring

boundaries

Flexibility

Personalized

learning

Immersive

virtual spaces Human

enhancement

Brain-machine-

brain interfaces

Liquid

learning

Quality

Program

ming

Synergy

Literacy

Better jobs

Innovation

Universal

access

Gaming

Re-inventing media

How to raise awareness of role of media? New and traditional?

How to ensure quality in a world of co-creators?

How to manage IPR in mash-ups?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Big Data

Media

prosumption

Quality

IPR

Copyright

Vested

interest

Ethics

New

media

Content

Change of

roles

Culture

Regulation

Transparency

Pluralism

Search

Creativity

Hyper-connected human

How to support European industrial competitiveness?

How to ensure EU values are reflected in future Internet Governance?

How to ensure that hyper-connectivity is brought to all?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Broadband

networks

Organic

computing

IoT

Storage and

Big Data

Silo-ed

infrastructures Hyper-

distributed

architectures

Open HW&SW

Regulations

Spectrum

Emerging

societal

applications

Prevent

Divides

Innovation

Trustworthy

technologies

Standards

Privacy Biz models

Cities, villages and communities

How to maintain cities and villages as hubs for open streams of people and ideas to move between them?

How to develop a fair competitive landscape throughout the territory?

Can we assure that investments are equitably distributed geographically?

How to stimulate behavioural changes to balance the sustainability equation?

How can ICT, new materials help ?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Decentralization

3D printing

Relocalisation

New service

economy Prevent

divides

Mobility

Internet

City-

scape

New

materials

Migration

Smart

infrastructures

New

materials

Big Data

Water

Energy

Recyclable materials

Behavioral

changes

Shared

economy

Lifestyles

Pursuing global peace

Will we succeed in reconciling the fragmentations of today’s humanity due to ethnic, culture, religious, economic, educational dividers?

Can a responsible development of technology be useful to manage tensions and to prevent conflicts?

How digital technologies can help manage migration and integration?

How can they foster multi-culturalism and equality?

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Multi-polar

tensions

Social

control

Resource

sharing Solidarity

Fundamen

talism

Commonal

ities

Middle

class Inter-generational

gap

Multiculturalism

Equity

Religion

Right

balances

Values

Work force

Competition

Surveillance

Demography

Equality

Rights

Trust

integration

18/10

1) Host conversations/dialogues with stakeholders

• Standard format: participatory brainstorming

• Contributors: scientists, citizens, policy makers,…

• Virtual (webinar) & in-person meetings

• Going local: Member States, schools, conferences…

• Viral process: loosely coordinated, but with simple, shared rules

2) Capture content into an open, standard online platform (futurium)

• Based on a fixed meta-model (futures, policies,…) & workflow

• Enabling co-creation (wiki), voting, forecasting, back casting, mapping,…

• Automatic semantic annotation, data mining, correlation, fact-finding

• Agent-based gaming and simulation (early 2013)

emergent collective intelligence

19/10

Futurium Model

Trend

Every European

Digital

Future

Future

Future

DAE Policy

A1 A101 A A

B A C

Futures (visions)

Policy Ideas pillars actions

Agents

p1 p7

2012 2020 2050

Policies: • Are expressed as S.M.A.R.T.

objectives • May be structured (e.g. pillars) • Atomic level: timed actions • Have a measurable impact • Other measurable attributes

(e.g. plausibility, innovation, …)

Futures: • Desirability (emotional view) • Likelihood (rational/scientific view) • Causality: antecedent->consequent • Forecasting vs. back casting

• + Challenges and Opportunities

Agents: • Stakeholders in broad sense (EC,

MS, Regions, Industry, Citizens…) • Implementers (those who execute

the actions) • Verifiers • Decision makers

Policy

A A

p p

A A

Future Future

Future

@ ? #

Discrete Objects of

Collective Inquiry

Futures

(Visions)

Policies

Inspire

Impact on

individuals, society,

economy,

environment,

politics,

technologies,… Real world

Trends

Scientific

Evidence

Sense & Analyse data,

Identify issues and challenges,

Elicit knowledge

(Re-)shape Inform

Envision

IMPLEMENTATION /

REVIEW

DESIGN

Stakeholders

Policy makers

Other factors

than evidence

Social

Networks

Ra

tio

na

l, s

cie

nti

fic

, a

na

lyti

ca

l Emotional, intuitive, holistic

Rules

and Laws

More information

Paper: "The Futurium - a Foresight Platform for Evidence-Based and

Participatory Policymaking"

http://www.springerlink.com/openurl.asp?genre=a

rticle&id=doi:10.1007/s13347-013-0108-9

The futurium platform:

http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda/futurium/

Obrigado!

Energy

positive

“Play &

Rewind”

Cyborgs &

super-humans

Implanted/ Embedded

converged technology “Organic”

computing

Cloud

computing

Energy

efficient

Internet

Cognitive and

soft robots Complex

systems

Virtualisation

2015-20 2040-50

Fo

un

dati

on

s

Tech

no

log

ies

Ch

allen

ges/

Issu

es

Financial

crisis

Sustainability

Healthy

ageing

Resource

efficiency

Climate

changes

Governance

Trust

Security

privacy

Property,

Ownership Resource

sharing

Participative

decision

Governance

Towards

immortality

Interim/beta

status Body/mind

adaptation

Quantum

Internet

Trans-humanism

“Conventional” ICT (Silicon based,

Packet switching, Boolean, …)

ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Cogno-

Quantum convergence

Energy positive

“Play & Rewind”

Trans-humanism

“Organic” computing

Hyper-connectivity

Bio-robotics

Snapshots of the future

Financial stability

Beyond Global

Warming

Trust

Ownership

Synergetic

Economy Models

Participative

decision

Super-centenarians

Interim/beta status

200+ Futures

S&T

Ec

En PL

So

Go

Education

ICT-Bio-Nano-Neuro-Quantum convergence

Privacy

Virtualisation

Art and creativity

Predictive

Policing

Empowerment

Big-Data

Equality

Liquid

Welfares

Mobility

Resource sharing

Space exploration

Beyond poverty Continuous learning

Ethics

Migration

Regenerative and

personalized medicine

Culture

Leisure