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ICT and the environment:A framework for analysis

John HoughtonCentre for Strategic Economic StudiesCentre for Strategic Economic StudiesVictoria University, Melbourne [email protected]+61 409 239 109

ICT has both positive and negative impacts on the environment

Positive impacts can come from:Dematerialization and online delivery;

A reduction in the need for travel;

A host of modeling, monitoring and management applications; and

G t ffi i i d ti d d liGreater energy efficiency in production and use, and recycling.

Negative impacts can come from:The production and distribution of ICT equipment;

Energy consumption in use (directly and for cooling);

Sh t d t lif l d t dShort product life-cycles and e-waste; and

Potentially exploitative applications.

The balance of o tcomes depends on incenti es and policiesThe balance of outcomes depends on incentives and policies.

Centre for Strategic Economic Studies

The Knowledge Economy: The Knowledge Economy: Energy use and intensity in historical perspective

1974 1995 Change inenergy use1974–1995

Annual change 1974–95

(% pa) Goods industries Energy used (PJ) 28 611 1

26 692 2 1 918 9 0 3Energy used (PJ)

Value added (USD bn) Intensity (MJ/USD)

28 611.1 2 091.7

13.7

26 692.2 3 209.0

8.3

-1 918.9 -0.32.1

-2.3Services Energy used (PJ) 6 024.7

7 339.4 1 314.7 0.9

Value added (USD bn) Intensity (MJ/USD)

3 428.4 1.8

6 670.2 1.1

3.2-2.2

Transport Energy used (PJ) Value added (USD bn)

22 367.0 258 5

34 703.7

475 312 336.7 2.1

2 9Value added (USD bn)Intensity (MJ/USD)

258.5 86.5

475.3 73.0

2.9-0.8

Residential Energy used (PJ) Value added (USD bn)

13 828.9 806.8

16 261.4

1973.1 2 432.5 0.8

4.4( )Intensity (MJ/USD) 17.1 8.2 -3.4Total Energy used (PJ) Value added (USD bn) Intensity (MJ/USD)

70 831.6 6 585.4

10 8

84 996.6 12 327.6

6 9

14 165.0 0.93.02 1

Centre for Strategic Economic StudiesSource: CSES (2006) Climate Change, Industrial Structure and the Knowledge Economy, Victoria University.

Notes: The countries included in this table are USA, Japan, UK, France and Australia. The goods industries consist of manufacturing; agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and construction. Energy use is measured in petajoules (PJ), GDP is measured in USD billion in 1990 purchasing power parity prices.

Intensity (MJ/USD) 10.8 6.9 -2.1

The Knowledge Economy: The Knowledge Economy: Energy use and intensity in historical perspective

Index of final energy intensity and energy intensity by sector EU 25Index of final energy intensity and energy intensity by sector, EU-25

Households

TransportTransport

Centre for Strategic Economic StudiesSource: Eurostat and the European Commission’s Ameco database.

Estimated global CO2 emissions: Estimated global CO2 emissions: ICTs – excluding radio and television (Circa 2006)

LAN and office telecoms7%

Printers6%

(1 Gigatonne of CO2 equivalent)

PCs and monitors (excl. embodied energy)

Mobile telecoms9%

40%

Fixed-line telecoms15%

Servers (incl. cooling)23%


Kumar, R. & Mieritz, L. (2007) Conceptualizing Green IT and data center power and cooling issues, Gartner Research Paper.

The New Scientist: The New Scientist: “Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?”

Centre for Strategic Economic Studieshttp://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/mg19726372.700-can-we-stop-the-internet-destroying-our-planet.html

Electricity use for servers, 2000-05:Electricity use for servers, 2000 05:Incl. associated cooling and auxiliary equipment


Koomey, J. (2007) Estimating total power consumption by servers in the U.S. and the world, Analytics Press, Oakland.

Industry and firm initiatives:Industry and firm initiatives:“Turning Green into Gold”


Guide to Greener Electronics:Guide to Greener Electronics:The “Greener-meter”


Source: http://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/toxics/electronics/how-the-companies-line-up/embed-the-guide-to-greener-ele

The Rebound EffectThe Rebound EffectElasticities, income effects, prices and taxes are key

In his 1865 book The Coal Question, Jevons observed that England's consumption of coal

d f J Wsoared after James Watt introduced his coal-fired steam engine, which greatly improved th ffi i f Ththe efficiency of Thomas Newcomen's earlier design. Watt's innovations made coal a more cost effective power sourcecost effective power source, leading to the increased use of the steam engine in a wide range of industries This in turnof industries. This in turn increased total coal consumption, even as the amount of coal required for any particular


required for any particular application fell. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

The Rebound EffectThe Rebound EffectThe evidence to date

h ff f ' d l ffThe effects of Jevon's paradox in relation to energy efficiency in the United States is not generally apparent.

h l l h l l l d h d b dWhile total vehicle miles traveled have increased 16% between 1991 and 2001, there is no evidence that owners of hybrid vehicles drove twice as much just because their cars were twice as efficient.

...we have not seen evidence that radically more efficient commercial buildings cause people to leave the lights on all night and set their office thermostats five degrees lower In fact energy savings in everything fromthermostats five degrees lower. In fact, energy savings in everything from office towers to schools have often been higher than projected. People do not seem to change their behaviors simply because they have a more ffi i t b ildiefficient building.

So far, the evidence from the field of more efficient technologies suggests that these technologies do decrease energy use


suggests that these technologies do decrease energy use. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Policy initiatives with immediate effect are necessary“ l h d ff h f b ll“Policies with immediate effect, in the sense of substantially reducing global emissions relative to the reference path prior to 2020 are urgently needed if large scale damage is to be avoided2020, are urgently needed if large scale damage is to be avoided. In several senses climate change is now an immediate and not a long run issue. Rapid growth in emissions, such as to greatly g p g , g yincrease the risks of large scale climate damage, is occurring now, and on present policies emissions will almost double their 2000 level by 2020. This emissions path will in turn lead to rapid global warming over the next two decades. Thus, while the full impacts of increasing greenhouse gases will emerge overimpacts of increasing greenhouse gases will emerge over centuries and indeed millennia, both the central causes and the immediate effects are immediate realities.”

Source: CSES (2006) Climate Change, Industrial Structure and the Knowledge Economy, Victoria University, Melbourne, p30.


A framework for analysisA framework for analysisEnergy efficiency and alternative energy systems

We need to get a clearer picture of the range and nature of ICT’s direct, indirect and systemic impacts on the

i t i f i h t i k b tenvironment – a review focusing on what is known about impacts (e.g. where they occur, how big they are, where they are positive and where negative)they are positive and where negative).Such a review would help to identify priority areas for focus(e g where there are simple and immediate initiatives that(e.g. where there are simple and immediate initiatives that could make a difference).W l d t i t k ICT bWe also need to examine ways to make ICTs zero-carbon, not just energy efficient, and to find ways for ICTs to support and enable the transition to alternative energysupport and enable the transition to alternative energy systems.


A framework for analysisA framework for analysisThere are also basic research questions

We need to understand why and where Rebound Effects might be significant, and what might be done to mitigate them. We need to better understand inter-relationships and model interactions through key value chains/networks, to better foresee flow on impacts and understand the complementaryforesee flow-on impacts and understand the complementary investments needed for alternative energy systems.We need to establish base-line statistics and metrics that mightWe need to establish base line statistics and metrics that might be monitored over time (e.g. extend work on ICT energy consumption projections across a range of equipment types).We need to extend and update sectoral models, to explore the relationship between changing industrial structures and energy consumption.


The challengeThe challenge“Can we stop the Internet destroying our planet?”

Can we save our planet from the Internet?from the Internet?asked The New Scientist

Well we probably can’t save it without So the challenge is towithout. So the challenge is to show, not only how to save the planet from ICT but how to saveplanet from ICT, but how to save it with ICT.


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