a framework for modelling ict and environmental challenges
TRANSCRIPT
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A Framework for Modelling ICT and gEnvironmental Challenges Using
Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios
Don MacLeanAssociate International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentAssociate, International Institute for Sustainable Development
OECD Workshop on ICTs and Environmental ChallengesOECD Workshop on ICTs and Environmental ChallengesCopenhagen, 22-23 May 2008
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PurposePurpose • To present a framework being developed• To present a framework being developed
by IISD in conjunction with Industry C d d th tCanada and other partners– for modelling the relationship between ICT
and environmental challenges– in the context of sustainable developmentin the context of sustainable development
goals and objectives– by using scenario-building and future– by using scenario-building and future
forecasting techniques
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Background• IISD founded in 1990 in
response to the B dtl d C i iBrundtland Commission report “Our Common Future”
• Work on SD includes– climate change energyclimate change, energy,
resources– economics, trade,
investment– market sustainability,
security– measurement and
assessment– leadership, networks,
partnerships, governance
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Background• IISD founded in 1990 in
response to the B dtl d C i i
• IISD has worked on relationship between ICT d t i blBrundtland Commission
report “Our Common Future”
ICTs and sustainable development since 2003– WSIS-1 and -2
• Work on SD includes– climate change energy
– Internet Governance Forum
– WSIS Action Linesclimate change, energy, resources
– economics, trade, investment
• Believes SD and ICT policy-makers have
– market sustainability, security
– measurement and
p yunderestimated– potential impact of ICTs on
SDassessment
– leadership, networks, partnerships, governance
– potential impact of SD on ICTs
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Framework Building BlocksFramework Building Blocks
Goal Concept of Sustainable Development
Context Concept of Information Economy and Society
Challenges Research on ICTs and Environment
Issues OECD and WSIS Policy Agendas
Options Future Forecasting Scenarios
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Concept of Sustainable Developmentp p• Our Common Future, Report of
the Brundtland Commissionthe Brundtland Commission (1987)
• UN Summit on Environment and Development (Rio 1992)and Development (Rio,1992)– Agenda 21
• Millennium Summit (New York, 2000)2000)– Millennium Development
GoalsWorld Summit on Sustainable• World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, 2002)I t ti l C f• International Conference on Financing for Development (Monterrey, 2002)
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Concept of Sustainable Developmentp p• Our Common Future, Report of
the Brundtland Commission“Sustainable development is development that meets thethe Brundtland Commission
(1987)• UN Summit on Environment
and Development (Rio 1992)
development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet and Development (Rio,1992)
– Agenda 21• Millennium Summit (New York,
2000)
gtheir own needs. It contains within it two key concepts:– the concept of needs, in 2000)
– Millennium Development Goals
World Summit on Sustainable
p ,particular the essential needs of the world’s poor, to which overriding priority should be given: and• World Summit on Sustainable
Development (Johannesburg, 2002)I t ti l C f
given: and– the idea of limitations imposed
by the state of technology and social organization on the• International Conference on
Financing for Development (Monterrey, 2002)
social organization on the environment’s ability to meet present and future needs”
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
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Where are we today?y• Current governance
t h tarrangements have not achieved balance between– economic growth– social development
i t l– environmental sustainability
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9Source: Global Footprint Network
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Where are we today?y• Current governance
t h tarrangements have not achieved balance between– economic growth– social development
i t l– environmental sustainability
• Climate change has gemerged as– a key cross-cutting
environmental issueenvironmental issue– a driver of economic and
social change
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10Source: Global Footprint Network
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
Global Governance
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Building Block 2g• Concept of sustainable development• Concept of the information economy and society
– World Summit on the Information Society (Geneva y (2003, Tunis 2005)
– OECD Ministerial Conference on the Future of the Internet Economy (Seoul, 2008)
“The Internet is increasingly critical to our economies and societies with implications across all policy domains. Only p p y ynow is there broad appreciation for the Internet’s potential as a powerful driver of innovation, sustainable economic growth, and social well-being”
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT Sector
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13Global Governance
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
Intelligent Business/CommercialI t t f Thi Consumer/Social Research/EducationGovernment/PublicIntelligentInfrastructure
Business/Commercial NetworksInternet of Things Consumer/Social
NetworksResearch/Education
NetworksGovernment/PublicService Networks
ICT Sector
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Key Research QuestionsKey Research Questions
• What changes to current economic and social structures and behaviours are needed to achieve long-term environmental sustainability?
• How can ICTs help enable these changes gthrough innovations in networking technologies, products, services, applications, and use?
• What governance reforms and policy options are most likely to maximize the long-term benefits ofmost likely to maximize the long term benefits of networking ICTs and minimize harm?
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Building Block 3Building Block 3• Concept of sustainable developmentCo cep o sus a ab e de e op e• Concept of the information economy and
societsociety• Research on ICTs and the environment
– Impact of the ICT producing SectorImpact of the application and use of ICTs– Impact of the application and use of ICTs
– ICT-enabled changes in consumer behaviour, i i l d t teconomic, social and governance structures
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Different kinds of effectsDifferent kinds of effects
Impact Information available
Direct effects small easy to measure
Indirect effects significant hard to measure
Systemic effects very big mainly theories
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17Source: ETNO & WWF, 2007, “Saving the Climate @ the Speed of Light”
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT-Enabled NetworksICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-Waste
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic Social
•Energy•Transportation•Industry
PillarPillar Pillar•Agriculture
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-Waste
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic Social
•Energy•Transportation•Industry
•Work•Commerce•Public services
PillarPillar Pillar•Agriculture •Leisure
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materialization
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-Waste
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic Social
•Rebound effects
•Unintended PillarPillar Pillar•Unintendedconsequences
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materialization
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-Waste
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic Social
•Rebound effects
•Unintended•Trade-offs
PillarPillar Pillar•Unintendedconsequences
•Re-material-ization
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materialization
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-Waste
ICT Sector
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ICTs and Environmental Challenges:T Ki d f U t i tiTwo Kinds of Uncertainties
• Research on ICTs and the environment has t d d t t t th i ttended to treat the impact of ICTs as a dependent variable, largely , g ypredictable in terms of factors such as
Supply (Moore’s Law +– Supply (Moore s Law + imagination)
– Demand (demographics + it GDP)per capita GDP)
– Governance (“Washington consensus”)
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ICTs and Environmental Challenges:T Ki d f U t i tiTwo Kinds of Uncertainties
• Research on ICTs and the environment has tended to treat the impact
• IISD believes this work has not taken sufficient account oftended to treat the impact
of ICTs as a ‘dependent variable’ largely predictable in terms of
account of– The complexity of issues
currently facing ICT policy-makerspredictable in terms of
factors such as– Supply (Moore’s Law +
imagination)
makers– The potential long-term
positive and negative impacts on sustainability of diff ICT li h iimagination)
– Demand (demographics + per capita GDP)
– Governance (“Washington
different ICT policy choices– ICT’s function as an
independent or intermediate variable in the– Governance ( Washington
consensus”)intermediate variable in the sustainable development equation
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Building Block 4g• Concept of sustainable developmentp p• Concept of the information economy and
societysociety • Research on ICTs and the environment• International work on ICT policy and
governance issuesgovernance issues– OECD– WSIS follow-up
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT-Enabled Networks
Convergence
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT-Enabled Networks
Convergence Creativity
ICT Sector
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT-Enabled Networks
Convergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Confidence
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
•Standards•Resources•Interconnection
ICT-Enabled Networks
•Interconnection•Access
Convergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Confidence
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
•Standards•Resources•Interconnection
•Openness•Diversity•Neutrality
ICT-Enabled Networks
•Interconnection•Access
•Neutrality•IPR/CC
Convergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Confidence
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
•Standards•Resources•Interconnection
•Openness•Diversity•Neutrality
ICT-Enabled Networks
•Interconnection•Access
•Neutrality•IPR/CC
Convergence Creativity•Security
ICT Sector
Security•Stability•Scalability•Universality
Confidence
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
•Standards•Resources•Interconnection
•Openness•Diversity•Neutrality
ICT-Enabled Networks
•Interconnection•Access
•Neutrality•IPR/CC
Convergence Creativity•Security •Privacy
ICT Sector
Security•Stability•Scalability•Universality
Privacy•Identity•Capacity•HR & FF
Confidence
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Building Block 5Building Block 5• Concept of sustainable development• Concept of the information economy and
society y• Research on ICTs and the environment
OECD work on the Internet economy• OECD work on the Internet economy• Scenario-building methodologies
– Shell– Great Transitions Initiative, UNEP,– EC Joint Research Centre
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Shell Global Scenarios to 2025
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materialization
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-WasteConvergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Emissions
Confidence
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35GovernanceScenario A
Governance Scenario B
GovernanceScenario C
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic SocialPillarPillar Pillar
Zero-Carbon
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materializationDataCentres
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-WasteConvergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Emissions
Confidence
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Governance Scenario B
GovernanceScenario C
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SustainableDevelopment
EnvironmentalEconomic Social Bits andB d idthPillarPillar Pillar
Zero-Carbon
BandwidthTrading
ICT-Enabled Networks
Efficiency De-materializationDataCentres
ICT Enabled Networks
GHGEmissions E-WasteConvergence Creativity
ICT Sector
Emissions
Confidence
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Governance Scenario B
GovernanceScenario C
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For Further InformationFor Further Information• Project Contacts • Reading
– Heather CreechIISD Director Knowledge
– Don MacLean and Bill St. Arnaud, “ICTs, Innovation and theKnowledge
Innovation and the Challenge of Climate Change”, IISD, f th i t
– Tony VetterIISD Project Manager
forthcoming at http://www.iisd.org/infosocIISD Project Manager
[email protected]– Bill’s blog http://green-
broadband.blogspot.com
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