a global reach with a local perspective current economic conditions affecting your business
TRANSCRIPT
A Global Reach with a Local Perspective
www.decosimo.com
Current Economic Conditions Affecting Your Business
Favorable US economic trends Substantial cash, increasing M&A activity US banks’ recovery & lending policies Favorable valuations
2014 M&A Outlook
Labor costs, labor unions, manufacturing costs down
US preeminence returns & recovering US Dollar Positive inflows into equity after 5 years No bubble yet, stock market peak likely off, top near Technology gains continue US banks continue recovery and improve lending
Favorable 2014 US Trends
For Financial Investors Slow 2013, prior uncertainties now clearer, substantial
cash For Strategic Acquirers
Increasing international interest in southeastern US Substantial cash, balance sheets, growth planning
For US Economy & Lending Favorable trends and policies
For Liquidity & Diversification Valuations, structure, alternatives and opportunities
M&A Outlook
Investors predict 4 industries having most potential for growth in 2014: Health care, financial services Technology Energy Manufacturing
Changing regulations in healthcare and financial services, increased O&G production, evolving world of technology, and US manufacturing opportunities will increase investment activity
Potential Sectors
M&A Drivers: New technology Geographic growth Product/service growth Customer growth
Challenges: Regulatory uncertainty Valuation disparities Volatile energy prices Inability to forecast future performance
Energy / O&G Sector
All-In Valuations
Note: 2013 H1 volume is annualized Source: GF Data
All-In Valuations
Source: GF Data
TEV 2003-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD
Total N =
10-25 5.4 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.5 6.0 5.4 312
25-50 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.8 6.3 7.7 6.1 266
50-100 6.7 6.5 6.8 7.4 6.6 7.2 6.8 196
100-250 7.7 8.8 6.8 7.5 7.5 6.0 7.6 62
Total 6.1 5.9 6.1 6.1 8.2 7.0 6.1 836
N = 479 29 73 93 131 31 836
Size Premium
Please note that N for 2003-08 encompasses six years of activity. 2013 Data is through 3Q.
Source: GF Data
TEV/EBITDA – By Industry
Industry 2003-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD
Total N =
Manufacturing 5.9 5.7 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 749
Business services 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.5 5.8 6.6 6.1 310
Health care services
6.7 6.3 6.7 7.4 7.3 7.7 6.9 165
Retail 6.5 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.3 5.1 6.3 54
Distribution 6.0 5.6 5.4 6.0 6.3 7.6 6.0 186
Publishing/Media 7.4 7.4 4.2 6.1 11.4 5.9 7.3 33
Technology 5.7 6.6 5.5 8.1 7.4 NA 6.3 38
Other 5.7 6.4 5.7 5.1 6.3 6.7 5.8 205
N = 964 91 191 193 228 73 1740
Please note that N for 2003-08 encompasses six years of activity.2013 Data is through 3Q
Source: GF Data
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
52% 51% 48% 47% 47%
18%14% 15% 16% 14%
30%36% 37% 37% 40%
Senior DebtSub DebtEquity
Transaction Structure Trends
Source: GF Data
Price does not equal value
Three valuation approaches – Asset approach Market approach Income approach
Typical buyers – Strategic buyers Financial buyers
So how does all this effect the value of my business?
Example Company
Net Sales $50,000,000
Net Income $3,500,000Interest Expense 800,000Depreciation 2,250,000EBITDA $6,550,000
Balance Sheet -Current Assets $10,000,000PP&E (net) 25,000,000Other Assets 500,000 Total Assets $35,500,000
Current Liabilites $7,000,000Long-Term Debt 15,000,000Equity 13,500,000
$35,500,000
Valuation based on EBITDA multipleEBITDA 6,550,000
TEV/EBITDA 6 (for Mfg/Similar Size/2013)
Total Enterprise Value 39,300,000
Less Interst Bearing Debt -15,000,000
Value of Equity 24,300,000
Income as % of Revenue 7.0%EBITDA as % of Revenue 13.1%
Inventory Turns 8xDebt to Book Equity 1.1Debt to Value based on Multiple 0.6
Assuming average 2013 transaction structure
Purchase Price $43,000,000
Sources -Senior Debt 40.0% $17,200,000Sub Debt 15.0% 6,450,000Equity 45.0% 19,350,000
$43,000,000
Uses -Acquire company $40,000,000Transaction Expenses 3,000,000
$43,000,000
From the buyer’s perspective
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Grow
EBITDA 5% 6,550,000 6,877,500 7,221,375 7,582,444 7,961,566 8,359,644
Capital Exp -2,000,000 -2,100,000 -2,205,000 -2,315,250 -2,431,013 -2,552,563Principal Payments -2,457,143 -2,457,143 -2,457,143 -2,457,143 -2,457,143Interest on Senior -1,032,000 -860,000 -688,000 -516,000 -344,000Interest on Sub Debt -967,500 -967,500 -967,500 -967,500 -967,500Free Cash Flow 320,857 731,732 1,154,551 1,589,911 2,038,438
Investors wary in 2013 due to uncertainty surrounding politics, monetary policy, global issues, and economic environment
Private equity ended 2013 with a record high $1 trillion of dry powder… 2013 reported best year for PE fundraising since financial crisis
Strategic buyers continue to hold large amounts of cash – another $1 trillion
Investors Looking to Put Capital to Work
Seller activity affected by: Diversification objectives Liquidity goals Continuing profitability trends Succession issues, exit planning
Buyer Activity fueled by: Large cash reserves, low interest rates Improved consumer confidence Opportunities in emerging markets
Middle market most active sector
Increasing Activity in 2014
2013 should have been a banner year for PE deals, but deal volume decreased. Sellers accessed loose debt markets and did more
than $60bn in dividend recapitalizations Capital “under pressure,” or nearing the end of a
fund’s investment period, actually declined Asian markets cooled considerably Strategics spent the post-recession years cleaning up
their balance sheets had the cash to spend on M&A IPOs soared on the back of historically strong equity
markets
Igniting Dry Powder
PE fund-raising surged in 2013 $461bn in new capital worldwide 21% increase over 2012
Debt markets open and eager to finance new deals The excess of unassigned capital will keep asset
valuations high in all industries Strategic partnerships between corporations and
PEs (and hedge funds) will increase the number of “hybrid” deals, and increase demand
Igniting Dry Powder
Generating organic growth continues to be a challenge in the current economic environment Slow economic growth Weak aggregate demand Near-zero inflation
M&A remains the best way for corporations to act on growth opportunities PE funds believe they are best positioned to assist
with growth mandates Expect to see PE-sponsorships for corporate M&A
For strategic buyers
Unallocated capital in PE
Private Equity IRRs
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Value (1000s)
Current PE blended IRR
Value of a business with $1mm in free cash
Confluence of factors: IRRs have a inverse relationship with your company’s
valuation. PE IRRs remain lower, the base of capital has
expanded, debt markets are hungry PE firms still believe they can run your business
better than you 2014 could be the right time to partner with PE to
create liquidity and diversify.
Why This is Good News
M&A By Sector
M&A by Sector
TEV/Total Revenue
Healthcare Industry Metrics: Southeast US
EBIT and EBITDA Multiples
Healthcare Industry Metrics: Southeast US
TEV/EBITDA
Manufacturing: U.S. Middle Market
Number of Transactions
Manufacturing: U.S. Middle Market
PEs and strategic buyers have cash on hand, ready to deploy
After an historic year for equities, shareholders will demand additional share price appreciation, and M&A is the fastest way to achieve those results
In the manufacturing space, watch for firms to build by buying, often in partnership with PEs or possibly hedge funds
Health care companies can expect renewed deal volume as volatility declines with a proliferation of understanding the complexities of Obamacare
A Seller’s Market