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Dr. Alan Beaulieu
President
A Good Year Ahead!
A3 Business Forum AIA, MCMA, RIA
First in Forecasts Since 1948
ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce
risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
Duration Accuracy
US GDP 15 99.5%
US Ind. Prod. 10 99.8%
Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2%
Canada Ind Prod 15 98.5%
China Ind Prod 18 99.5%
Retail Sales 18 97.8%
Housing 15 96.6%
Employment 14 99.6%
Preliminary 2016 Forecast Results 2
First in Forecasts Since 1948
24.5%
15.0%
5.6% 4.6% 3.9%
3.3%
2.9%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%
0.9% 0.9%
19.6%
United States
China
Rest of World
Japan
Australia
Percent of 2015 World GDP by Country
*Total 2015 World GDP:
$73.171 Trillion, US$
Source: IMF, *67% are IMF Estimated Figures
First in Forecasts Since 1948
State Population Growth Rates
Source: Census Bureau
Percent Change from Population Estimates 2010 to 2015
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product
Sources: FRB, BEA
Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12)
-6.8%
-2.9% -5.3%
-15.5%
-0.3
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
GDP US IP
GDP
US IP
Mining 17%
Electricity Generation 10%
Manufacturing 73%
Manufacturing: highest 12MMA in 8 yrs
Mining: normal seasonal rise
Industrial Production had a stn increase
in Dec, the best since 2011
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Manufacturing Production Index NSA
Source: FRB
2007 = 100
0.2% 0.3%
103.9
60
85
110
135
160
-45
-30
-15
0
15
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMA ROC
12/12 3/12
3MMA 12MMA
6
Data Revision in 2016
Dec 2016 12MMA 99.1% 12 mos
2017 2.1%
Tentative Sep and Oct lows
12MMA at an 8 yr high
Q4 3MMA decline is avg
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Total Manufacturing Production Index
Sources: RIA, FRB
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Mfg Production
Mfg Production
RIA Shipments
7
First in Forecasts Since 1948
12-Month Moving Average 12/12 Rate-of-Change Year-over-Year Growth Rate
• Annual Trend:
• Phase:
• Year-over-Year:
Industry
Outlook
2017:
2018:
2019:
US Industrial Production Index
US Industrial Production Index
104.2
A
-1.0%
2.7%
1.1%
Source: FRB
84
89
94
99
104
109
114
84
89
94
99
104
109
114
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
First in Forecasts Since 1948
12-Month Moving Total 12/12 Rate-of-Change Year-over-Year Growth Rate
• Annual Trend:
• Phase:
• Year-over-Year:
Industry
Outlook
2016:
2017:
2018:
Gross Domestic Product
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
US Gross Domestic Product
$16.6 trillion
C
1.6%
1.9%
3.5%
Source: BEA
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Real Gross Domestic Product to US Gross Domestic Product for Services
Source: BEA
3/12 Rates-of-Change
1.9% 1.7%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
GDP GDP Services
GDP Services
GDP
As seen in the
Services: 10-YR average 1.3%
20-YR average 2.1%
30-YR average 2.4%
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Raw
Feb-15 1.4
Mar-15 1.5
Apr-15 1.5
May-15 1.4
Jun-15 1.5
Jul-15 1.3
Aug-15 1.3
Sep-15 1.6
Oct-15 1.6
Nov-15 1.5
Dec-15 1.7
Jan-16 1.6
Feb-16 1.7
Mar-16 1.7
Apr-16 1.7
May-16 1.6
Jun-16 1.7
Jul-16 1.5
Aug-16 1.5
Sep-16 1.9
Oct-16 1.7
Nov-16 1.7
Dec-16 1.9
Jan-17 1.7
3/12 Rate-of-Change
= 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 2017 3𝑀𝑀𝑇
𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 2016 3𝑀𝑀𝑇× 100 − 100
=5.3
4.8× 100 − 100 = 10.4%
3MMT
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
12MMT
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.4
19.7
19.8
20.0
20.2
20.3
12/12
26.7%
25.5%
25.2%
22.4%
20.0%
18.3%
15.4%
12.7%
12/12 Rate-of-Change
= 𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 2017 12𝑀𝑀𝑇
𝐽𝑎𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑦 2016 12𝑀𝑀𝑇× 100 − 100
=20.3
18.0× 100 − 100 = 12.7%
3/12
15.9%
13.6%
13.6%
14.3%
14.6%
16.7%
13.3%
12.8%
10.4%
10.4%
Data Preparation
DATACAST !
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to Shipments - Units
Source: RIA
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Shipments - Units
RIA Shipments
12.5%
21.0%
12
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Real Gross Domestic Product
Sources: RIA, BEA
Rates-of-Change
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments - 12/12
GDP - 3/12
GDP
RIA Shipments
13
First in Forecasts Since 1948
United States Overview Weekly Oil Price & Rig Count
Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes
Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016 May 2016 Sep 2016 Jan 2017 May 2017
USD/bbl Rig Count
Oil Rigs
WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Worldwide Rotary Rig Count to North America Rotary Rig Count
Source: Baker Hughes
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-31.8%
-45.2%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
North America Worldwide
Worldwide
North America
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Renewable Energy Consumption
Source: EIA
Quadrillion Btu
10.0
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Source: EIA.gov
Million Metric Tons
5129.0
4700
4900
5100
5300
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
4700
4900
5100
5300
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Mar 1993:
5116.0 MMT
Jul 2016
5115.1 MMT
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Ongoing Concerns
China
Exports…
Brexit
South America
US Debt
Election Jitters
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Trade in Goods with World: Exports to Trade Weighted Exchange Rate Index
Sources: Census Bureau, FRED
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-4.7%
0.7%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Exchange Rate Exports
Exports
Exchange Rate
3/12 0.3% B
3MMT up 10.3% since Feb
‘16 low
Slightly milder than median
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Trade in Goods with World: Exports
Sources: RIA, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Exports
Exports RIA Shipments
20
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Leading Indicator
Source: The Conference Board
2010 = 100
0.7%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
1/12
As seen in
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Expenditure on Health as a Percent of GDP (1995-2013)
Source: World Bank
Percent
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
USA
FRA
SWI
GER
CAN
NLD
NZL
DEN
SWE
UK
NOR
AUS
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total U.S. Public Debt
Source: USgovernmentspending.com
(% of GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
122.2%
The Long View…
First in Forecasts Since 1948
CBO Projection Statistics
Data Source: CBO, 2015
Billions of Dollars
A B C D E
B+C+D/E Net Interest Healthcare Social
Security
Total
Spending
2015 56% 234 936 882 3,690
2030 69% 1,176 2,251 2,049 7,896
2035 71% 1,602 3,041 2,589 10,110
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US/Global Recovery – Good Days Ahead
Consumers are in great shape
Interest Rates remain favorable
Employment rising, as are wages
Banks are lending
Retail Sales at a record high level
Non-residential construction is improving
Commodity Prices are experiencing some upside pressure
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Global Leading Indicators
Source: Markit Economics
1/12 Rates-of-Change
3.9%
3.2%
-0.7%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
EZ Comp PMI
EU Manufacturing PMI
JP Morgan Global MFG PMI
OECD plus 6 major NME up
5 Major Asia up
Brazil up
Canada up
China up
India up
Japan up
First in Forecasts Since 1948
China Industrial Production Index
Source: The Economist
2000 = 100
6.1%
6.0%
630.9
75
275
475
675
875
1075
1275
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMA R-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMA
12MMA
2017 6.9%
Retail Sales 10.4% (lowest in 14 yrs)
Nonres -11.3% Record low, but strong rise in Oct/Nov
monthly figures
MV 11.6% Record high 12MMT/3MMT
Rail Freight -1.9% 12MMT rise since Sep ‘16
Electricity 4.8% B
Population growth: 0.43% 164 of 235
Fertility Rate: 1.6
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-1.3%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Canada IP US IP
US
Canada
US Industrial Production Index to Canadian Industrial Production
Sources: FRB, Statistics Canada
12/12 Rates-of-Change
Total Retail Sales 3.2% B
Auto Retail Sales 7.7% C
Metal Mining 5.3% C
Manufacturing 0.2% B
2017
IP 3.1%
GDP 2.4%
CPI 1.3%
Wages increase 1.6% to 2.4%
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Mexico Industrial Production Index
Source: Mexico National Institute of Statistics and Geography
2008 = 100
-0.4%
0.0%
107.7
60
110
160
210
-30
-15
0
15
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMA R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMA 12MMA
Retail Sales 7.7% B Highest in 11.5 yrs
Residential Const 10.8% B
Mining O&G - 5.2% D
Exports to the US - 3.0% A
Manufacturing 1.4% B
Construction 7.0% B
Mining ex O&G -1.3% A
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US to Europe Industrial Production
Annual Average Data Trends
60
80
100
120
140
40
60
80
100
120
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Europe US
US
Europe
30
30
Retail Sales (ex vehicles) 1.9% B
Manufacturing 1.6% C
Export Volume -1.8% A
CPI – Dec 1.1% B
Residential Permits 19.7% B
Nonresidential 5.9% B
Central Heating/Boilers
-1.1% D -3.0% A 12MMA decline STN 3MMA rise off Aug ‘16 Low
2017 west: 2.0% east: 2.4%
First in Forecasts Since 1948
C Consumer
Prices
0 0
Soft Landing
A
B
D
Housing
Trends 10
Production
Medical
New Orders
Financial
Retail
Wholesale Trade
Foreign
Nonresidential
Construction
Hard Landing
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Foreign Direct Investment
Source: BEA
Billions of Dollars
$348.2
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
12MMT
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Manufacturing Production Index
Source: FRB
2012 = 100, Raw Data
102.2
30
50
70
90
110
130
30
50
70
90
110
130
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Manufacturing
1. Near –Sourcing
2. Technology
3. Capital vs. Labor
4. Energy
5. Consumer base
12MMA 3.8% below
the Feb ‘08 record high
First in Forecasts Since 1948
2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index
Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd and US Council on Competitiveness
Index Score: 100 = High, 10 = Low
Rank Country Index Score
1 China 100.0
2 United States 99.5
3 Germany 93.9
4 Japan 80.4
5 South Korea 76.7
6 United Kingdom 75.8
7 Taiwan 72.9
8 Mexico 69.5
9 Canada 68.7
10 Singapore 68.4
2016 (Current)
Rank Country Index Score
1 United States 100.0
2 China 93.5
3 Germany 90.8
4 Japan 78.0
5 India 77.5
6 South Korea 77.0
7 Mexico 75.9
8 United Kingdom 73.8
9 Taiwan 72.1
10 Canada 68.1
2020 (Projected)
• Talent is the most important
driver of a country’s ability to
compete on the global stage
• Cost competitiveness is the
second most influential driver
First in Forecasts Since 1948
18.6
15.0
12.4
11.3
10.2
8.3
6.1
5.9
5.5
5.3
4.3
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.1
2.0
0.7
0.6
0.2
Health care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Accommodation and food services
Manufacturing
Administrative/support and waste management svcs
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Finance and insurance
Wholesale trade
Construction
Other svcs (except public administration)
Transportation and warehousing
Educational Services
Information
Management of companies and enterprises
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Real estate and rental and leasing
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
Utilities
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Manufacturing is the Fourth Largest Employer in the US
Source: Census Bureau 2013 County Business Patterns
Millions of Employees
Manufacturing
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Manufacturing Employment
Job openings are the highest in 8.5 yrs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12MMA, Millions of Workers
10
12
14
16
18
20
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
ROC
12.3
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator™
Sources: FRB, ITR Economics
USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Indicator US IP
Indicator - Monthly
US IP - 12/12
Reported in ITR Trends Report – ITR Advisor
As seen in
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to US Total Industry Capacity Utilization Rate
Source: FRB
Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
US IP
US IP Forecast
Utilization Rate
Utilization Rate US IP
1/12
12/12
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production Index to US Owner Occupied Housing Inventory
Sources: FRB, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
US IP
US IP Forecast
Inventory
Inventory
US IP
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
1/12 Rate-of-Change
14.0%
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
1/12
Leads US Economy by
9-14 months
As seen in
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Above 50 Indicates expansion
55.0
45
50
55
60
65
45
50
55
60
65
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
MMA R-O-C
Raw Data
12MMA
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Source: Chicago Federal Reserve Board
6-Month Moving Average
-0.1
-4.7
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
-4.7
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
6MMA
42
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Stock Prices Index
Source: WSJ
S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10
16.8%
4.2%
2133.0
200
1000
1800
2600
3400
4200
5000
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMA R-O-C
1/12
12/12
Actual
12MMA
43
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft
Data Source: Census Bureau
Billions of Dollars
-3.4%
-4.0%
$758.2
500
750
1000
1250
1500
-60
-40
-20
0
20
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
MTM 3Q 3MMT decline
Dec ‘16 Low
2017 4.6%
July 12/12 low
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excl. Aircraft) to Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Sources: Census Bureau, FRB
Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
Utilization Rate
Utilization Rate
New Orders
1/12 12/12
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Crude Oil Futures Prices to US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft)
Sources: WSJ, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Oil Prices
Oil Prices Forecast
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
New Orders Oil Prices
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-10.2%
-4.0%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Capital Goods Copper
Copper Futures Prices
Capital Goods
US Copper Futures Prices to US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders(excluding aircraft)
Sources: WSJ, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
3/12 12.9%
3MMA jumped a
STN 12.75% in 4Q
More price rise in 2017
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft)
Sources: RIA, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
New Orders
New Orders Page 8 of Core ITR Trends Report RIA Shipments
48
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Private Sector Employment
Source: BLS
Annual Data Trend
85
95
105
115
125
85
95
105
115
125
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Employment Mils of Jobs
Private Sector Employment Growth
Job Openings
Involuntary Part Time Employment
12MMA lowest in aprox 8 yrs
Quit Rate – Rising
6.5% C 1.9% C
-6.7% A
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Private Sector Employment
Sources: RIA, BLS
Annual Data Trends
103
106
109
112
115
118
121
124
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Employment
Employment
RIA Shipments
50
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Private Sector Employment
Sources: RIA, BLS
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Employment
Employment
RIA Shipments
51
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Total Manufacturing Employment
Sources: RIA, BLS
Annual Data Trends
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Employment
Employment
RIA Shipments
52
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Total Manufacturing Employment
Sources: RIA, BLS
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Employment
Employment RIA Shipments
53
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts Average per Person Age 18 to 65
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BLS
12MMA Data Trend
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Overall Wage Growth
Source: FRB Atlanta
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Raw Data
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Median Annual Earnings (deflated)
Source: BLS
Constant (1982-84) Dollars
$343.0
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Median Earnings - Raw Data
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Retail Sales (deflated)
Source: Census Bureau
Trillions of Dollars
2.1% 2.0%
$2.293
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-18
-14
-9
-5
0
5
9
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMT 12MMT
3MMT seasonal rise is
average post GR
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Housing Starts to US New Homes Sold
Source: Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
4.9% 12.4%
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Homes Sold Housing Starts
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Housing Price Index
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Year over Year % Change
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Raw Data
$242.1 $228.3
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Percent Who Think They Will Marry and Have Kids
Source: The Council of Economic Advisers
Percent
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Material Handling Equipment New Orders
Source: Census Bureau
Billions of Dollars
2.9% 9.7%
36.5
10
20
30
40
50
60
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMT 12MMT
61
Forecast for 2016 9.7% Nov 9.7%
12MMT accuracy 98.6% after 18 mos
2017 11.7%
12MMT is essentially flat
Slightly STA 3Q decline
Typical Oct and Nov declines
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to US Material Handling Equipment New Orders
Sources: RIA, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
New Orders
New Orders
RIA Shipments
62
First in Forecasts Since 1948
North America Light Vehicle Production
Source: Wards Auto
Millions of Units
-0.1%
1.7%
17.8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMT R-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMT
12MMT
Forecasted 18.3 mu, actual 17.6 96.0%, 11 mos
2017 7.3% 18.9
63
3MMA seasonal rise was
mild, steep Nov decline)
Auto sales: Dec highest in 11+ yrs
12MMT is rising and just shy of record high
First in Forecasts Since 1948
RIA Shipments to North America Light Vehicle Production
Sources: RIA, Wards Auto
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
RIA Shipments
Auto Production
Auto Production Page 6 of Manufacturing ITR Trends Report RIA Shipments
64
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index
Source: FRB
1/12 Rate-of-Change
2.1%
1.9%
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Consumer Price
Producer Price
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Commodity Prices
Source: WSJ, London Metal Exchange, Metalprices.com, Steel Market Update
3/12 Rates-of-Change
59.6% Zinc
38.4% Tin
27.9% Lead
17.3% Alum
40.8% Steel
12.9% Copper
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
All Others Copper & Steel
First in Forecasts Since 1948
FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections
Source: FRB
Fed Open Market Committee
December 2016 September 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Relating to Your Business
Discuss with your management team:
• What Phase are you in now?
• What Phase are your key customer segments in?
• What can you watch for in your business to help you know if you
are moving into phase X?
• If the next six months moves from X to Y, what is your plan?
• Which of your customers are likely to move into X at the same
time?
• What are your plans if Phase C turns into Phase D, or it turns into
Phase B?
Email [email protected] with the subject line
69
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