a green revolution for mozambique, march 5, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development,
Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College
A Green Revolu,on for Mozambique? Maputo, Mozambique March 6th, 2015
The Global Crises
Financial
Food security
Water
Civil Strife
Climate Change
Energy Supply
Ecosystem Functions
‘A Perfect Storm’
The Global Crises
Imperial College, London
Survival line
Months
Pote
ntia
l har
vest
(ton
s/ha
)
1
2
3
2 3 1 4
Weeds Pests
Drought
An Insecure Farm
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Survival line
Months
Poten,
al harvest (ton
s/ha
)
1
2
3
2 3 1 4
Weeds Pests & diseases
Drought Soil Fer)lity
>2 t/ha
Resilient Crops
A Secure Farm
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The Key Ingredients of a Mozambique Green Revolu,on
• And from Value Chains to Local, Na,onal, Regional and Interna,onal Markets
• Linked via Warehouses to Value Chains and Food Processors • BEGIN WITH • Farmers with rights to land and belonging to Farmer Associa,ons
• With easy access to seeds, fer,lisers, credit through Agrodealers
• Provided by local seed and fer,lizer blending companies and local banks
• PLUS • Investments both technological and financial • Poli,cal Leadership and appropriate Enabling Environments
Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers
Farmer Associations Cooperatives Cereal Banks Contract Farms Outgrowers
Farmer Associa,ons
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URBAN LIVELIHOODS
RURAL DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL MARKETS
ASSUMED RISK NUTRITION
WASTE
ADDED VALUE
RURAL LIVELIHOODS
REGIONAL MARKETS
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
FOOD PRODUCTION
VALU
E CH
AINS
LAND TENURE
BUILD RESILIENCE
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¡ There is not much more new arable
land available and water is scarce
¡ We have to intensify ¡ More with Less ¡ Greater productivity but minimised
environmental footprint
We have to Intensify
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But it has to be sustainable
• With efficient and prudent use of inputs • Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers
• Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases • Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2
• While increasing natural capital and environmental services • Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests
• Strengthening Resilience • Reducing environmental impact
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Targeted Fer,lisers Mozambique
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Blended N, P, K Zn, Mo, Bo, S Plus Lime 4-‐6 tons / ha
Mul,ple Approaches
• Ecology
• Gene,cs
• Socio-‐economics
• plus Integrated Imperial College, London
• Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices
• e.g. – Agroforestry – Integrated Pest
Management – Organic farming In
Sustainable Ecological
Intensifica,on
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Intercropping maize and cowpea
Sustainable Genetic Intensification
• Plants more nutritious – carbohydrate and protein – micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
• Plants more resilient to – pests and diseases – climate change
• Plants more efficient at – converting sunlight to food – taking up nitrogen from
the atmosphere – using water
Modern Plant Breeding
Sustainable Gene,c Intensifica,on
Imperial College, London
Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers and markets
Kenya Sussex
Sustainable Socio-‐economic Intensifica,on
Tanzania Imperial College, London
• Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
• Integrated Soil Management (ISM)
Integrated Approaches
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Africa’s Soils are Degrading Rapidly
For SSA land degrada,on hotspots affect 26% of the land area The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affec,ng 180 million people Imperial College,
London
Healthy Soils
A Healthy Soil is strong in Structure With an op,mal mix of large and small par,cle sizes Providing good permeability and water holding capacity. It is highly fer,le with rich humus and sufficient nutrients for high yields It is also rich in soil biota and contains no pollutants.
REPAIR, RESTORE, ENHANCE AND CARE Imperial College, London
Combining Conserva,on Agriculture with Microdosing
Microdosing
Conserva,on Agriculture
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Emissions con,nue to rise over next century, leading to about 40C above preindustrial
IPPC, 2014. Summary for Policy Makers
If Greenhouse Gas Emissions remain High
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More than 5% reduction in length of
growing period
Average Annual Max Temp > 300C
Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
Climate Smart Soil
CLIMATE SMART SOIL HELPS AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS BECOME BETTER ADAPTED AND RESILIENT TO THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, WHILE MINIMISING THE
EMISSIONS OF GHGS AND RESTORING THE LOST CARBON IN THE SOIL
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Adapta,on
• Reducing the impact of high temperatures – Eg by Mulching
• Conserving moisture – Eg Terracing
• Drought Tolerant Varie,es – Eg Maize
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Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fer,le lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less produc,ve otherwise
hOp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adap)v... Eduardo Mondlane
Resilience in Nwadjahane, Mozambique
Imperial College, London
Carbon Sequestra,on
• Key is Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) • SOC lost due to agricultural prac,ces • Can be put back – Conserva,on farming – Agroforestry
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Farmer Innova,on in the Sunderbans India
How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?
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Poli,cal Leadership
Imperial College, London
President John Kufuor, Ghana
President Filipe Nyusi, Mozambique
Rural Economy
Farm Household in a Farmer Association
Seed Co
Agro dealer
Fertiliser Co
Banks for microcredit
Local trader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
Model of Alliance for a Green Revolu,on for Africa (AGRA)
An Enabling Environment
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