a growth oriented budget with realistic assumptions!...distinction between different foreign...

28th February 2015

A growth oriented budget with realistic assumptions!

2

Budget Highlights

Budget fittingly tackles balancing of conflicting objectives - higher share of government revenues going to the states, maintaining a tight fiscal balance,

allocating higher public investments to spur growth as private investments are still lagging. In the process it deliberately compromised on the deficit

target which is projected at a tad higher at 3.9% vs 3.6% for the year with the 3% target being pushed back by a year to 2018 from 2017. But

importantly the additional spending – Rs. 70000cr additional Gross Budgetary Support - targeted on infrastructure will be released immediately to kick

start growth (including 40000cr of GBS to Railways). Shovel ready projects will support immediate kick off of infra capex to push prime the economic

growth creating multiplier effect.

Phased cut in the corporate income tax starting FY17 from 30 to 25% is significantly positive along with simplification of the tax structure

(Rationalisation and removal of various tax exemptions). Support for “Make in India” was demonstrated through a 15% cut in royalty and fees for

technical services; lower corporate tax and commitment to implement GST by April 2016. Deferment of GAAR by 2 (prospective basis ONLY) years will

add to the confidence of foreign investors. Bringing NBFCs having asset size in excess of Rs. 5 bn under SARFAESI Act, Comprehensive Bankruptcy

Code, an independent debt management unit and a monetary policy committee for the RBI to deal with a formally mandated inflation target were some

of the major structural reforms announced which will lead to ease in doing business and propel the GDP growth to 8%+.

On its revenue front, the gross tax collections have been budgeted to grow at 15.8% to Rs.14.49 lakh crores. On spending side, slump in crude price is

a god sent opportunity supporting subsidy reduction in Oil. Budget targets to check subsidy leakages with further expansion of Direct Transfer of

Benefit. The FM has also spelt out provisions relating to the proposed bill (To be introduced in the current session) to curb both domestic and foreign

black money. In keeping with this theme, there is increasing thrust on financial inclusion and social security including Housing for all, employment

generation and poverty reduction. FM has budgeted for higher divestment proceeds (~70k crore). Pick up in taxes will be gradual and linked to revival of

the economy and therefore targeted disinvestments will be the key to boosting government‟s non-tax revenue kitty.

In conclusion, Budget gives clarity of long term vision and stability of fiscal policies in a potentially high growth environment. It carries forward the

government‟s thrust on taking our economy towards global standards of governance by making it more investment-friendly, fairer and transparent. It will

help create a business friendly tax environment and infrastructure spending boost while slightly relaxing the deficit reduction plan. FM has clearly set up

an ambitious reform agenda. Now he needs to ensure that the key initiatives are implemented flawlessly and we see tangible difference. Given the

deferment of GAAR by two years, the budget would be received favorably in most quarters of the global investor community. Budget is not very

expansionary which will assuage the concerns of the RBI, leading to a likely reducation in the interest rates. Rating upgrade for India in sometime in

future and paucity of investment opportunities in other EM spaces will keep the $ inflow robust.

Top Picks : Yes Bank, Axis Bank, L&T, Tata Motor DVR and Maruti

3

Hits and Misses from the Budget

Hits from the Budget

GAAR deferred by 2 years; to apply to investments made on or after 1st April 2017. It will not be implemented RETROSPECTIVELY – Will remove

uncertainty for FIIs and will give further boost to inflow

Corporate tax rate to decline from current 30% to 25% over next 4 yrs, starting from next fiscal – Earnings will get upgraded marginally; Will give

boost capex cycle

Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for technical services reduced from 25% to 10% to facilitate technology inflow – Will encourage MNC‟s to

bring technology in India from abroad and boost MAKE IN INDIA initiative

Black Money Curb - Aim to move to cashless economy by encouraging shift to card based transaction; Benami Transactions (Prohibition) Bill to

curb domestic black money to be introduced in the current session of Parliament; PAN being made mandatory for any purchase or sale exceeding

Rs 1 lakh.

Stronger bankruptcy code enforcing better borrower discipline

Higher tax share for states, as per the 14th Finance Commission report, give leeway to spend as per need, rather than “one size & style fits all”

approach.

Misses from the Budget

Clarity on PSU banks reforms and lower allocation towards PSU Bank recpaitalisation (~8000crore)

Clarity on Retrospective taxation

Plan expenditure lower than expected

Corporate surcharge increased by 2% to 12%

4

Agenda

Sector specific measures and impact

Budget at a glance

5

Budget at a glance

6

Budget at a glance

FY14 FY15 FY15 FY16

Particulars (In ` crore) Actuals Budget Estimates Revised Estimates Budget Estimates

1. Revenue Receipts (2+3) 1,014,724 1,189,763 1,126,294 1,141,575

2. Tax Revenue (net to Centre) 815,854 977,258 908,463 919,842

3. Non-tax Revenue 198,870 212,505 217,831 221,733

4. Capital Receipts (5+6+7) 544,723 605,129 554,864 635,902

5. Recoveries of Loans 12,497 10,527 10,886 10,753

6. Other Receipts 29,368 63,425 31,350 69,500

7. Borrowings and other Liabilities* 502,858 531,177 512,628 555,649

8. Total Receipts (1+4) 1,559,447 1,794,892 1,681,158 1,777,477

9. Non-plan Expenditure 1,106,120 1,219,892 1,213,224 1,312,200

10. On Revenue Account of which, 1,019,040 1,114,609 1,121,897 1,206,027

11. Interest Payments 374,254 427,011 411,354 456,145

12. On Capital Account 87,080 105,283 91,327 106,173

13. Plan Expenditure 453,327 575,000 467,934 465,277

14. On Revenue Account 352,732 453,503 366,883 330,020

15. On Capital Account 100,595 121,497 101,051 135,257

16. Total Expenditure (9+13) 1,559,447 1,794,892 1,681,158 1,777,477

17. Revenue Expenditure (10+14) 1,371,772 1,568,111 1,488,780 1,536,047

18. Of which, grants for creation of capital assets 129,418 168,104 131,898 110,551

19. Capital Expenditure (12+15) 187,675 226,781 192,378 241,430

20. Revenue Deficit (17-1) 357,048 378,348 362,486 394,472

% of GDP (3.1) (2.9) (2.9) (2.8)

21. Effective Revenue deficit (20-18) 227,630 210,244 230,588 283,921

% of GDP (2.0) (1.6) (1.8) (2.0)

22. Fiscal Deficit {16-(1+5+6)} 502,858 531,177 512,628 555,649

% of GDP (4.4) (4.1) (4.1) (3.9)

23. Primary Deficit (20-11) 128,604 104,166 101,274 99,504

% of GDP (1.1) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7)

Source: Indiabudget.nic.in, ABML Research

7

Budget at a glance (Cont‟d)


Revenue Receipts

64.2%

Capital Receipts

35.8%

Receipts Break-up FY16 BE

Rs 10563 bn

Rs 6090 bn

Non-Plan Expenditure

72.2%

Plan Expenditure

27.8%

Expenditure Break-up FY15 RE

Rs 10016 bn

Rs 4292 bn

Non-Plan Expenditure

73.8%

Plan Expenditure

26.2%

Expenditure Break-up FY16 BE

Rs 11100 bn

Rs 5553 bn

Revenue Receipts67.0%

Capital Receipts33.0%

Receipts Break-up FY15 RE

Rs 5590 bnRs 8718 bn

8

Budget at a glance (Cont‟d)


Corporation Tax34.0%

Taxes on Income

22.3%

Union Excise Duties

14.8%

Customs15.1%

Service Tax13.4%

Taxes on U.T.0.3%

Wealth Tax0.1%

Tax Revenue Break-up FY15 RE

Corporation Tax32.5%

Taxes on Income

22.6%

Union Excise Duties

15.9%

Customs14.4%

Service Tax14.5%

Taxes on U.T.0.2%

Wealth Tax0.0%

Tax Revenue Break-up FY16 BE

Interest Payments etc.

34.1%

Subsidies22.1%

Defence Services (RE+CE)

18.4%

Grants to State & UT

6.7%

Pensions6.8%

Police4.0%

Economic Services

2.2%Others5.6%

Non-Planned Expenditure FY15 RE

Interest Payments etc.

34.7%

Subsidies18.5%

Defence Services (RE+CE)

18.7%

Grants to State & UT

8.2%

Pensions6.7%

Police3.9%

Economic Services

2.2%

Others7.0%

Non-Planned Expenditure FY16 BE

9

Changes in FY16BE over FY15RE

Particulars (` Cr.) FY15 RE FY16 BE

∆ FY16BE /

FY15RE

REVENUE RECEIPTS

1. Tax Revenue

Corporation Tax 426,079 470,628 10%

Taxes on Income 278,599 327,367 18%

Customs 188,713 208,336 10%

Union Excise Duties 185,480 229,809 24%

Service Tax 168,132 209,774 25%

2. Non-Tax Revenue 217,831 198,133 -9%

Interest receipts 22,166 23,599 6%

Dividend and Profits 88,781 100,651 13%

Other Non Tax Revenue 103,555 94,413 -9%

3. Capital Receipts

Miscellaneous Capital Receipts (on a/c of Disinvestment) 31,350 69,500 122%

10

Agenda


Budget at a glance

11


12

Agriculture

Budgetary Measures Impact Stocks to Watch

Incremental agriculture credit target of Rs 500 bn in FY16 to Rs 8500 bn.

These measures are expected to lead to increased demand for fertilisers, agro chemicals, hybrid seeds, farm equipment, irrigation projects. Beneficial in medium to long term for agri-equipment sectors, seeds, agrochemicals, tractor segment etc.

BASF, Monsanto, Kaveri Seeds, PI Industries, Insecticides, Advanta, Coromandel, M&M, VST Tillers (+ve)

Rs 53 bn allocated to support micro-irrigation, watershed development and the „Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana‟.

State govt can allocate further funds

These measures are expected to give further push for various irrigation projects and is positive for overall supply chain of irrigation industry.

Jain Irrigation, EPC Industries (+ve)

Top Picks: M&M, PI Industries

13

Automobiles & Aviation/Tourism


Excise duty on chassis for ambulance is

being reduced from 24% to 12.5% Auto companies are likely to pass-on the

benefits to end consumers Force Motors (+ve)

Validity period of concessional excise duty

of 6% granted to specified goods used in

the manufacture of electrically operated

vehicles and hybrid vehicles is being

extended by one more year up to 31st

March, 2016.

Will enable electric/hybrid vehicles to remain

competitive in the market. M&M, Electrotherm (+ve)

Custom duty on import of commercial

vehicles has been increased from 10% to

40%.

10% custom duty has been applied on

imports of CKD kits of CV.

CV imported in any other forms has been

levied with import duty of 20%.

This measures has been taken to protect

domestic industry and give push to “Make in

India” project.

Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors

(+ve)

Visa on arrival to be to be increased to 150

countries from 43 currently in phased

manner. Will give boost to domestic tourism

Indian Hotel, Cox & Kings, Thomas Cook,

Mahindra Holidays (+ve)

Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for

technical services reduced from 25% to

10% to facilitate technology inflow.

Will be beneficial for MNC automobile

companies Maruti (+ve)


Top Picks: Maruti, Tata Motors, Cox & Kings

14

Banking & Financials


FPI, FDI shareholding to be merged and to

be considered as composite cap.

Distinction between different foreign

investment to be abolished

Currently, the foreign shareholding in private

banks is capped at 74% of equity capital with

FII limit capped at 49%. With composite cap,

the banks in which FII limit is near trigger point

of 49% will be able to increase FII limit upto

74%. This will increase the headroom for FII

to buy the shares. With more FII headroom,

the weight in indices of these banks is also

likely to increase.

Axis Bank, Yes Bank, Indusind Bank (+ve)

Market borrowing of the Government is

pegged at Rs 5556.5 bn for FY16E (3.9%

of GDP) which is higher than the street

expectation of 3.6%

Negative for banks as higher borrowing target

will translate into higher bond yields and

consequently higher MTM losses

Mainly PSU banks including PNB, Union Bank,

OBC (-ve)

Government allocated Rs 79.4 bn for PSU

bank re-capitalisation which is lower than

estimate of Rs 150-180bn

PSU banks are struggling for capital as they

bore the brunt of asset quality pain. With lower

capital allocated by government, the banks

with low tier 1 ratio will not have healthy

business, NII and profit growth going ahead

PSU banks including Union Bank, IDBI Bank,

IOB, OBC (-ve)


Top Picks: Yes Bank, Indusind Bank, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance

15

Banking & Financials (Cont‟d)


Agriculture credit target for banking

industry increased from Rs 8000 bn in

FY15 to Rs 8500 bn in FY16E

Agricultural loans are usually provided to

financially weaker section of the society and

are highly prone to NPA risk. Largely negative

for PSU banks as they mainly extend credit to

direct agriculture and are starved of capital to

further bear NPA risk

Mainly PSU banks including Union Bank, OBC,

IDBI, IOB (-ve)

Strong bankruptcy code to enforce better

borrower discipline

Strong bankruptcy code will lower slippages

and improve the recovery of dues which shall

lower the stressed assets of PSU banks.

However, the positive results to be showcased

in medium to long term

SBI, BOI, BOB, Canara Bank (+ve)

FM stated that several measures may

soon be introduced to incentivise credit or

debit card transaction in order to curb the

flow of black money by discouraging cash

transaction

As more business is done through card usage,

the deposit growth of banks shall improve.

With Jan dhan scheme, over 11 crore Rupay

cards have already been issued which shall be

supportive.

SBI, BOI, BOB, Canara Bank (+ve)

Government to soon clarify the tax

structure for REITs Clarity in tax structure will make it attractive for

the real estate players to raise funds instead of

taking loans from financial institutions

HDFC, Indiabulls Housing Finance (-ve)



16

Banking & Financials (Cont‟d)


NBFCs with assets more than Rs 5 bn will

be allowed to use SARFESI

This will benefit NBFCs to recover the NPAs

faster. SARFESI will allow NBFC to auction

properties when borrowers fail to repay their

loans. NBFCs having property as collateral will

be major beneficiaries

Bajaj Finance, Capital First, HDFC (+ve)

Tax exemption limit for health insurance

increased from Rs 15000 to Rs 25000. For

the senior citizens the limit is hiked to Rs

30000

Increase in tax exemption limit will encourage

people to take health insurance in which Max

India is a major player

Max India (+ve)

FMC and SEBI to be merged Forward Market Commission (FMC) is the

watchdog for commodity futures market in

India while SEBI is the regulator for capital

markets. The merger of these two regulators

will strengthen the regulation of commodity

markets

MCX (+ve)

Reduce corporate tax from 30% to 25%

over next 4 years Majority of the banks and financial institutions

pay tax of ~30% and would be steadily

benefitting by lower tax rate over next 4 years

which would add to their bottom-line

HDFC Bank, Indusind Bank, Yes Bank, Axis

Bank, ICICI Bank, etc (+ve)



17

Cement


Clean energy cess increased from Rs 100

to Rs 200 per tonne of coal, etc. to finance

clean environment initiatives.

Focus on reviving investment cycle.

Marginal increase in coal cost for all cement

players.

Revival in investment cycle will drive cement

demand in medium to long term.

We believe the budget is mixed bag for cement

industry and hence the impact is marginally

positive indirectly from short to medium term

perspective.

Additional investment allowance (@ 15%)

and additional depreciation (@35%) to new

manufacturing units set up during the

period 01-04-2015 to 31-03-2020 in

notified backward areas of Andhra Pradesh

and Telangana.

Will create cement demand from housing and

industries in the region of Andhra and

Telangana.

Sagar Cement, Orient Cement, NCL industries,

Deccan Cement, Kesoram, Ramco etc

Rate of Income-tax on royalty and fees for

technical services reduced from 25% to

10% to facilitate technology inflow. Will be beneficial for MNC cement companies ACC, Ambuja, Heidelberg (+ve)

Top Picks: Orient Cement and OCL India


18

Consumption (FMCG/Retail/Jewellery)


Marginal decrease in tax burden for all

taxpayers due to incremental benefits

under various heads of tax exemptions.

Roadmap for reduction in corporate tax

from current 30% to 25% in next 4 yrs.

Increased focus rural areas, lower personal tax

outgo to increase disposable income of

consumers. Majority of the FMCG companies

are full tax paying companies and they will

benefit marginally in form of lower tax outgo.

HUL, Dabur, Marico, Godrej Consumer

Products Limited. Emami, Pidilite, Asian Paints

etc. (+ve)

Increase in excise duty in the range of 15-

30% for various size of cigarettes.

Increase in excise duty has been more than

street expectation of 8-10%. Subdued industry

cigarette volumes are likely to come under

further pressure, as cigarette companies will

pass-on the increased tax burden to

consumers.

For ITC, majority volume contribution is from

65mm+ category and the company has to take

~15-16% price hike to maintain current

profitability. (-ve)

Godfrey Phillips & VST Industries (-ve)

Roadmap for implementation of GST

mentioned.

Increased effective service tax burden

from 12.36% to 14%.

GST is likely to get implemented from 1st April

2016. Beneficial for all retail store network

owners.

Increased burden on service tax on rent and

other services will hit profitability marginally

Shoppers Stop, Trent, Titan etc (-ve in FY16E,

+ve from FY17E onwards, net net neutral)

Excise Duty on leather footwear of Retail

Sale Price exceeding Rs.1000 per pair has

been reduced from 12% to 6%. (abatement

as a percentage of Retail Sale Price is

being reduced from 35% to 25% for all

footwear)

Footwear companies are likely to pass-on the

benefits of effective lower taxes to consumers

so as to boost volume.

Bata India (+ve)

Top Picks: HUL, Dabur, Emami, Pidilite, Marico, Bata India


19

Construction/Infrastructure/Engineering


Rs.12bn allocated for DMIC and , as the

pace of expenditure picks up additional

funds will be provided

Ahmedabad-Dhaulera Investment Region in

Gujarat, and the Shendra–Bidkin Industrial

Park, in Maharashtra, are now in a position to

start work on basic infrastructure. Additional

allocation will further boost the DMIC project.

L&T, Simplex Infrastructure, (+ve)

National Investment and Infrastructure

Fund (NIIF), to be established with an

annual flow of `200bn to it. Positive –The investment will be in the form of

equity and will create room for huge leverage All Infrastructure companies (+ve)

Tax free infrastructure bonds can be

issued for the projects in the rail, road and

irrigation sectors

Positive - The move is likely to boost the rural

infrastructure and help the smaller regional

players in the infra space.

Players operating in Railways, Roads, Ports,

and irrigation segment. (+ve)

Ports in public sector will be encouraged,

to corporatize, and become companies

under the Companies Act

Negative for private ports - Public sector ports

will be able to attract investment and leverage

the huge land resources

GPPL, Adani ports, Essar ports (-ve)

2lakh kms of road to be built.(This includes

one lakh km already under construction

and sanctioning another one lakh km of

roads)

A very ambitious target has been set and the

ministry is working on various means to

achieve the same.

IRB, ITNL,Sadbhav, Ashoka, MBL

Infrastructure (+ve)

Top Picks: L&T, IDFC


20

Construction/Infrastructure/Engineering (Cont‟d)


Gross Budgetary Support (GBS) for the

Railways has been pegged at Rs. 400bn.

GBS for current year is higher by Rs. 100bn

over the last fiscal year and 41.6% of the total

plan outlay ~Rs. 1000bn in 2015-16 financial

year.

Bhel, Siemens (+ve)

Excise duty reduced from 12% to 6% for

Inputs used in the manufacture of LED

drivers and MCPCB for LED lights, fixtures

and LED lamps.

The move will lead to higher use of LED‟s

which are more efficient then CFL‟s.

Havells, Crompton Greaves, Bajaj Electricals

(+ve)

Top Picks: L&T, IDFC


21

Metals & Mining


Customs duty hiked from 10% to 15% on

iron & steel and articles of iron or steel,

falling under Chapters 72 and 73 of the

Customs.

Positive Tata Steel, JSW Steel (+ve)

Customs duty hiked from 2.5% to 5% on

metallurgical coke Marginally Negative Tata Steel, JSW Steel (-ve)

Higher thrust on railway and infrastructure

capex . Higher investments in railways and capex will

create additional demand for steel. Tata Steel, JSW Steel (+ve)

Top Picks: Tata Steel


22

Power


5 new Ultra Mega Power Projects, each of

4000 MW, in the Plug-and-Play mode In the plug and play mode government will put

in all the clearances in place and will also

partner in the project.

Power sector players (+ve)

Nil excise duty on goods for setting up of

UMPP This will encourage domestic production and

promote power players to purchase locally. Bhel (+ve)

Clean energy cess increased from `100 to

`200 per metric tonne of coal, etc. to

finance clean environment initiatives Mildly Negative Adani Power, Tata Power, JSW Energy (-ve)

Target of renewable energy capacity

revised to 175000 MW till 2022(100000

MW Solar, 60000 MW Wind, 10000 MW

Biomass and 5000 MW Small Hydro)

Government is focusing on promoting clean

energy especially solar power

NTPC, Tata Power ,Suzlon and other power

players (+ve)

Zero excise duty on round copper wire and

tin alloys for use in the manufacture of

Solar PV ribbon for manufacture of solar

PV cells

Positive Bhel, Indosolar, Moser Baer (+ve)

Top Picks: BHEL,Tata Power


23

Retail/Gems and Jewellery


Marginal increase in consumer spending

power due to adjustment in tax slab

Marginally positive for the organised retail

space as it would lead to more money in the

hands of consumers

Shoppers Stop & TITAN

GST network likely to be rolled-out by

August 2012.

Excise duty on branded garments

decreased from ~4.5% to ~3.6%.

Increase in service tax on rentals from

10% to 12%.

Will lead to marginal decrease in prices of

branded garments, which we believe will be

passed by the retailers to consumers and

thereby boost the volumes marginally. Overall

positive

Shoppers Stop

Levy of excise duty of 1% on branded

precious metal jewellery to be extended to

include unbranded jewellery.

Custom duty on gold ores and

concentrates for use in manufacture of

gold from 1% to 2%.

Will lead to increased cost for the unbranded

jewellery makers and thereby eliminate the

price difference between branded and

unbranded players. We believe this is

marginally positive for branded jewellery

makers.

The increase in custom duty on gold ores and

concentrates will increase the cost for gold

refiner and hence for jewellery makers. It will

have negligible adverse impact on jewellery

volume.

Titan and Gitanjali Gems

Top Picks: Titan


24

Real Estate


Rationalization of capital gains regime for

the sponsors exiting at the time of listing of

the units of REITs and InvITs.

The rental income of REITs from their own

assets will have pass through facility

Positive - The move is likely to bring in higher

investments in these sectors.

L&T, DLF, Oberoi Realty and other

infrastructure and real estate players (+ve)

~Rs.224bn for housing and urban

development Positive Ashiana Housing, Sobha Developers (+ve)

Top Picks: Sobha, Oberoi Realty


25

ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR

Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral

Head of Research Head – Derivatives Desk

022-61802820 022-61802870

[email protected] [email protected]

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Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 [email protected]

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Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance 022-61802833 [email protected]

Naveen Baid Oil & Gas/IT 022-61325226 [email protected]

Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 [email protected]

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26

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a growth oriented budget with realistic assumptions!...distinction between different foreign...

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