a human development view on value change trends (1981-2006) christian welzel professor of political...
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A Human Development View on Value Change Trends (1981-2006)
Christian Welzel
Professor of Political ScienceInternational University Bremen (IUB)
?
Istanbul, November 03, 2006
Two Dimensions of Cross-Cultural Variation
Variation in people‘s prevailing value orientations is enormous, yet in many aspects it can be boiled down to just two dimensions of cross-cultural variation:
(1)Weak vs. strong SECULAR-RATIONAL Values: with secular-rational values getting weaker one approaches the mythical ideal of a sacred community, with these values getting stronger one approaches the rational ideal of a secular community. This polarity is about ideals of the COMMUNITY.
(2) Weak vs. strong SELF-EXPRESSION Values: with self-expression values getting weaker one approaches the conformist ideal of a restrained individual, with these values getting stronger one approaches the ideal of an expressive individual. This polarity is about ideals of the INDIVIDUAL.
High Importance of Religion
(+) Emphasize RELIGIOSITY
(-) Low Importance of Religion
Strong Pride on Own Nationality
(+) Emphasize PATRIOTISM
(-) No Strong Pride on Own Nationality
More Respect for Authority Needed
(+) Respect AUTHORITY
(-) More Respect Not Needed
Obedience, not Independ. Taught
(+) Teach OBEDIENCE
(-) Independ., not Obedience Taught
WEAK
SECULAR-
RATIONAL
VALUES
Refusal of Divorce as Unjustified
(+) Emphasize traditional FAMLISM
(-) Acceptance of Divorce
STRONG
SECULAR-
RATIONAL
VALUES
.39 .39
.57 .57
.67 .67
.49 .49
.56 .56
Weak vs. Strong Secular-Rational Values
Weak Liberty Aspirations
(-) Emphasize civil and political FREEDOM
(+) Strong Liberty Aspirations
Abstinence from Signing Petitions
(-) Support and practice public EXPRESSION
(+) Participation in Petition Signing
Rejection of Homosexuality
(-) Tolerate NONCONFORMITY
(+) Acceptance of Homosexuality
Weak Sense of Self-Direction
(-) Feel SELF-DIRECTION
(+) Strong Sense of Self-Direction
WEAK
SELF-
EXPRESSION
VALUES
Refusal of Trust in Other People
(-) Sense HUMAN TRUST
(+) Expression of Trust in Other People
STRONG
SELF-
EXPRESSION
VALUES
.57 .57
.58 .58
.60 .60
.37 .37
.57 .57
Weak vs. Strong Self-Expression Values
The two value dimensions are partially distinct as they have different reference points, the community and the individual.
Yet, the two dimensions also partially overlap:
The weak poles of the two dimensions overlap on a common emphasis on human CONSTRAINT, the two strong poles overlap on a common emphasis on human CHOICE.
In combination, weak secular-rational values and weak self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are restrained by chaining them to survival communities. The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human constraints.
In combination, strong secular-rational values and strong self-expression values pursue an ideal in which individuals are free to express themselves by unchaining them from survival communities.The commonality of this ideal is to emphasize human choice.
An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity
(+) Emphasize RELIGIOSITY
(-)
(+) Emphasize PATRIOTISM
(-)
(+) Respect AUTHORITY
(-)
(+) Teach OBEDIENCE
(-)
WEAKLY
SECULAR-
RATIONAL
COMMUNITY
(+) Support traditional FAMILISM
(-)
STRONGLY
SECULAR-
RATIONAL
COMMUNITY
(-) Emphasize civil and political FREEDOM
(+)
(-) Support and use public EXPRESSION
(+)
(-) Tolerate NONCONFORMITY
(+)
(-) Feel SELF-DIRECTION
(+)
Emphasis on
HUMAN
CONSTRAINT
WEAKLY
SELF-
EXPRESSIVE
INDIVIDUAL
(-) Sense HUMAN TRUST
(+)
STRONGLY
SELF-
EXPRESSIVE
INDIVIDUAL
Emphasis on
HUMAN
CHOICE
An Underlying Constraint vs. Choice Polarity
The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Theory
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0.55
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0.65
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0.80
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0.90
0.95
1.00
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00
Se
cu
lar-
Ra
tio
na
l Va
lue
s
+
_
Self-Expression Values +_
CONSTRAINT
CHOICE
+
_
The Two-Dimensional Value Space in Reality
HNK
ZMB
MON
SER
VTN
VEN
URU
USA
GB
UKR
UGA
TUR
TNZ
SWI
SWE
ESP
SAF
SLO
SLV
SIN
SAU
RUS
ROM
POR
POLPHI
PER
PAK
NOR
NIG
NWZ
NTH
MOR
MOL
MEX
MAL
MAC
LXMLTH
LTV
KYR
SKR
JRD
JPN
ITL
ISR
IRE
INDO
IND
ICE
HUN
GUA
GRC
GER (W.)
GEO
GER (E.)
FIN
EST
ELSEGP
DOM
DENCZE
CYP
CRO
COL
CHN
CHICAN
BUL
BRZ
BOSBEL
BLR
BAN
AZR
AUT
AUSARM ARG
ALG
ALB
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70
Self-Expression Values
Se
cu
lar-
Ra
tio
na
l Va
lue
s
r = .50***
FRA
+_
+
_
1 SD
Value Change Progressing from Constraint to Choice
Value change progressing from constraint to choice is a central aspect of Human Development because this value change makes people mentally free, motivating them to develop, unfold, and actualize their inner human potentials.
A Human Development Model of Value Change
or Maslowian Value Change (next slide)
PROSPERITY
People experiencetheir lives asself-directed
More actionresources available
to people
People experiencetheir lives as safe and secure
People perceive roomto relieve from unchosen community ties
Rising SECULAR-RATIONALview on COMMUNITY ties
People perceive roomto develop theircreative human
potentials
Rising SELF-EXPRESSIVEview on INDIVIDUAL potentials
Growing Emphasis on HUMAN CHOICE
People tend to value the
choices they are capable
to practice.
A Human Recession Model of Value Change Regressing from Choice to Constraint
MISERY
People experiencetheir lives as
less self-directed
Less actionresources available
to people
People experiencetheir lives as lesssafe and secure
People perceive little room to relieve from unchosen community ties
Receding SECULAR-RATIONALview on COMMUNITY ties
People perceive littleroom to develop
their creativehuman potentials
Receding SELF-EXPRESSIVEview on INDIVIDUAL potentials
Growing Emphasis on HUMAN CONSTRAINT
People tend to value the
choices they are capable
to practice.
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0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70
Self-Expression Values +_
Se
cu
lar-
Ra
tio
na
l Va
lue
s
+
_
1981
2006
Net ValueChangeswithinCulturalZones(1981-2006)
On average, the fivecultural zones (for whichdata are available from1981 to 2006) have beenmoving toward strongerself-expression values. Four of these five zonesalso moved towardstronger secular-rationalvalues. But this moveis less pronounced.
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0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70
Africa
before 1921
1921-30
1931-40
1941-50
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
after 1980
before 1921
1931-401941-50
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
after 1980
Self-Expression Values +_
Se
cu
lar-
Ra
tio
na
l Va
lue
s
+
_
before 1921
after 1980
after 1980
after 1980
after 1980
before 1921
before 1921
CohortDifferencesthroughoutCulturalZones
Cohort differencesindicate a long-termincrease of secular-rational and self-expression values inall cultural zonesexcept Africa.
A C T I O N R E S O U R C E S
More
MATERIAL means
Higher INTELLECTUAL
skills
Wider SOCIAL
connectivity
make people goods-wise more
independent.
make people knowledge-wise more
independent.
makes people relation-wise more
independent.
People can act more independently and have greater choice.
People perceive more room to actualize their inner potentials.
Rising Self-Expression Values
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Individual Action Resources +_
Se
lf-E
xp
res
sio
n V
alu
es
+
_
SWE after 1980
SWE 1971-80
SWE 1961-70SWE 1951-60
SWE 1941-50
SWE 1931-40
SWE 1921-30
NZ before 1921NZ 1921-30
NZ 1941-50
CZE after 1980
SLO after 1980
ESP 1961-70
ESP 1951-60SWE before 1921
BRA 1951-60
DEN 1941-50ATR after 1980
USA before 1920
USA 1921-30
USA 1931-40
USA after 1980
BEL after 1980
ISR after 1980
CHIL after 1980
CYP after 1980
SKO after 1980J AP 1951-60
ICE after 1980
J OR after 1980
HUN after 1980
PAK after 1980
PAK 1931-40
HUN before 1920
POL 1921-30
PHIL after 1980
VEN after 1980
FIN 1921-30URU 1941-50
RUS before 1920
National Cohorts‘Value Positionsrelated to theAction ResourcesAvailable in their FormativeYears
More action resourcesin people‘s formativeyears raise their self-expression values. Yet,societies‘ trajectorieson this growth pathdiffer in their height.
Note: Action resourcesmeasured by Vanhanen‘sindex of power resources(0-100 scale).
Postmaterialist Liberty Aspirations (PLA)
Ordinal preference scale measuring priorities on three goals related to civil and political liberties, taken from the materialism/postmaterialism item batteries: “seeing that people have more say about things are done at their jobs and in their communities,” (V120, V121) “giving people more say in important government decisions” and “protecting freedom of speech” (both in V122, V123). For each item, no priority is coded 0, second priority is coded 1 and first priority is coded 2. Priorities for each item are then added to a 0-5 scale. The following table describes this index:
Liberty Aspirations Code Meaning Label
0 Absent No item on 1st or 2nd rank 1 Weak One item on 2nd rank 2 Moderate One item 1st or two items 2nd 3 Moderate-to-strong One item 1st and one 2nd 4 Strong One item 1st and two items 2nd 5 Maximum Two items 1st and one 2nd
Let‘s Focus on a Central Component of Self-Expression Valuesand Its Implications: Postmaterialistic Liberty Aspirations
PLA=0
PLA=1
PLA=2
PLA=3
PLA=4
PLA=5
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
7.60
8.00 8.20 8.40 8.60 8.80 9.00 9.20 9.40 9.60 9.80
Subjective Importance of Democracy
Subjective Importance of Democracy :How important is it for you to live
in a democratic country?
Pe
rce
ive
d P
res
en
ce
of
De
mo
cra
cy
Perceived Presence of Democracy :How democratic do you consideryour own country?
MEAN
ME
AN
Notes:PLA (postmaterialistic liberty aspirations)WVS I-V (FIN,FRA,ITA,NL,ESP,SWE,GB,USA,GER)
TheDemocraticImplicationsof risingPLA
Rising PLA let peopleplace more emphasison democracy but makethem more critical ofits presence, nurturinga democratic reformpotential.
Note:Scale range of onestandard deviationaround the meanshown.
Conclusion
A central component of rising self-expression values, postmaterialistic libertyaspirations, generates a democratic reform potential by driving people to placemore emphasis on democracy while making them more critical of the actualdemocratic performance.