• introduction/basic terms • systems ecology case studies ...courtesy hans-joachim schellnhuber,...

Course Overview

31.Mar.2015Andreas Fischlin, ETH Zurich

• Fundamentals of Systems Theory: Modeling, System Representation, Stability analysis, Simulation

• Ecosystem models from recent research: agroecosystems, climate and forests etc.

• Systems Ecology Case Studies: Motto - 1,2,3 from the simple to the complex

Insertion: Simulation tool «Easy ModelWorks»

• Introduction/Basic Terms

1 2 3( )


Overview 31. March 2015

Fundamentals of System Theory!

!Modeling

Summing Up Case Studies 1,2,3

Completing Case Study 3


Overview World Models (Cont.)Meadows, D.H. et al., 1992. Beyond the limits - confronting global collapse - envisioning a sustainable future

• World Model 3 “Beyond the limits”


«Limits to Growth» Today

…


Dennis Meadows Today


'Limit to Growth' scenarios vs observed global data

“We are following collapse scenarios!”!

Dennis Meadows, Mar 9, 2012

After van Vuuren et al. (eds.), 2012. Roads from Rio+20 Pathways to achieve global sustainability goals by 2050 - Summary and main findings to the full report. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment: The Hague, Netherlands. 50pp.""Based on Turner, 2008. Glob. Environ. Change-Human Policy Dimens., 18(3): 397-411


Overview World Models (Cont.)• World Model 3 “Beyond the limits”

Meadows, D.H. et al., 1992. Beyond the limits - confronting global collapse - envisioning a sustainable future

• IMAGE 2.0 Alcamo, J., 1994. IMAGE 2.0: integrated modeling of global climate change. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 1-321.

Integrated Assessment Modeling


IMAGE 2.2

Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse

EffectAlcamo et al., 1994


IMAGE 2.2 Society-Biosphere-ClimateIntegrated Assess-ment ModelIAM

Alcamo, J. (ed.), 1994. IMAGE 2.0: integrated

modeling of global climate change. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 1-321


IMAGE 2.2 "

Model Structure

Alcamo, J. (ed.), 1994. IMAGE 2.0: integrated

modeling of global climate change. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 1-321


IMAGE 2.2 19 Regions

Alcamo, J. (ed.), 1994. IMAGE 2.0: integrated modeling of global climate change. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 1-321


IMAGE 2.2 Standard Run Land Use Change

2050 vs. 1990

Alcamo, J. (ed.), 1994. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 37-78


IMAGE 2.2 Biofuels Land Use Change ∆ Biofuels vs. BAU

2050Alcamo, J. (ed.), 1994. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 37-78


Overview World Models (Cont.)• World Model 3 “Beyond the limits”

Meadows, D.H. et al., 1992. Beyond the limits - confronting global collapse - envisioning a sustainable future

• IMAGE 2.0 .. 2.2 Alcamo, J., 1994. IMAGE 2.0: integrated modeling of global climate change. Water Air Soil Pollut., 76(1/2): 1-321.

Integrated Assessment Modeling

• GAIM Global Analysis, Integration, and Modelling - IGBP Program http://gaim.unh.edu/


First Answers (Cont.)

Yes#

All models that explicitly consider the environment demonstrate limits to growth#

Model improvements risked to run up to a complexity that bogged down any new insights

We asked: Are there other world models besides «World Model 2»?


Some generally useful

techniques, approaches, or

insights we learned?


Lessons Learned...

• What’s bad in isolation, may be good in combination - Was für sich alleine schlecht, ist im Verbunde manchmal gerade recht! (The sum is more than its parts!)#

• Solutions required to critically explore model behavior (Divide et impera!):#

– Timing and magnitude of population collapse depend on particular model properties (structure, combination of parameter values)


Important Structural Properties

No growth possible


Lessons Learned... (Cont.)– Search for Achilles’ heel (sensitivity analysis) often

helps (“Simulate and solve!” - “Frisch simuliert, ist halb gelöst!”)#

– Population collapse is due to overshooting (“Überschiessen”) <=> “Poor control”#

– To control complex systems well we generally need to look ahead, since not all problems can be solved from a standing position (“aus dem Stand”)!#

• To ignore time delays is usually fatal:#– Climate# 30a#

– Ozone hole 50-100a#

– Human population 30-50a


Lessons Learned... (Cont.)• Negative feedbacks stabilize if they look

ahead and counteract disturbances#

• Positive feedbacks destabilize#

• Negative feedbacks with time delays are inbetween and lead to oscillations #

• Complex systems often respond in an unanticipated manner (complex feeback loops, sensitivities, time delays)#

• Quantification is a must!


General Conclusions?


General Conclusions

On Population


IIASA Projections (Demography Only)

Lutz et al., 2007. IIASA’s 2007 Probabilistic World Population Projections. www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/proj07/index.html?sb=5


UN Projections (Demography Only - post 2012 Revision)

~2100: 10.9 Billion (+1 Billion more than previous estimates)

Present: 7.2 Billion

Gerland et al., 2014. World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 346(6206): 234-7


UN Projections (Demography Only - post 2012 Revision)

Africa being key

Gerland et al., 2014. World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science, 346(6206): 234-7


Age structures matter

Africa Europe

Ewing et al., 2010. The ecological footprint atlas 2010. www.footprintnetwork.org


Fundamental Equation of Population Dynamics

–––– = [ br(t) - dr(t) + ir(t) - er(t) ] · xδxδt

Mortality

Natality

Immigration EmigrationPopulation

Natality

Mortality

Immigration Emigration

br(t) rel. birth rate Natality

dr(t) rel. death rateMortality

ir(t) rel. immigration rateImmigration

er(t) rel. emigration rateEmigration


Leslie Matrix modelCohort Component Projection Method:

Every cohort ~ population

Complex age structure due to World War II

1987Europe

where nt " cohort state vector" mt " net migration

cohort


TFR Phases and Population Growth

TFR stabilizies between 1.5 .. 2

Tota

l Fer

tility

Rat

e TF

R

[chi

ldre

n pe

r

Start Phase II Start Phase III

}

where r(fc,t⎮𝝳c)" 5 a step change" ∇ic "" " country specific parameters

Bayesian Fertility Projection:

Raftery et al., 2014. Bayesian population projections for the United Nations. Stat. Sci., 29(1): 58--68.


General Conclusions

On Needs of

that Population

United Nations Human Development Index

Ecological Footprint [ha/capita]


Ecological Footprint vs. Human Development Index

1980

Ewing et al., 2010. The ecological footprint atlas 2010. http://www.footprintnetwork.org





1990






2000






2007



Ecological Footprint vs. Human Development Indexwith country/region attribution

2003

Cuba

After WWF, 2006. Living Planet Report 2006. Figure 22, p.19. http://wwf.panda.org


Ecological Footprint vs. TimeEurope



Global Ecological Balance Sheet(in global hectares/person, 2003 data)

Ecological Footprint


Current Land Use


Agricultural Land - <7 Billion, 2005 Diet

Müller et al., 2006, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, 20: 1-13


Agricultural Land - 12 Billion, 1995 Diet

Müller et al., 2006, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, 20: 1-13


Land Uses

Courtesy Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, 2009


General Conclusions

On Oil

(example of a non-renewable resource)


Ex. of a resource: Oil in the US

Ultimate United States crude-oil production based on assumed initial reserves of 150 and 200 bilIion barrels (Hubbert, 1956).


Peak Oil as Predicted by Hubbert

M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)

For the US?

~1970


US Peak Oil as “observed”“Prediction”: ~1970 1971

EnergyWatchGroup, 2008. Crude oil – the supply outlook, Halo Energy, 101

Ultimate world crude-oiI production based upon initial reserves of 1250 biIIion barrels (Hubbert, 1956).


Peak Oil as Predicted by Hubbert

M. King Hubbert (1903-1989)

For the World ~2000


World Peak Oil “observed”?“Prediction”: ~2000

EnergyWatchGroup, 2008. Crude oil – the supply outlook, Halo Energy, 101

According to EWG:

~2005


World Peak Oil “observed”

Miller & Sorrell, 2014. The future of oil supply. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci, 372(2006): 20130179. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2013.0179 Mi198


Peak Oil - Discoveries vs. production

World discoveries peak 1965

Aleklett, K., 2005. IEA accepts Peak Oil An analysis of Chapter 3 of the World Energy Outlook 2004. Uppsala University: Sweden


World discoveries peak 1965 Production exceeds

discoveries since 1984




Production exceeds discoveries since

1984





EROI

Guilford et al., 2011. Sustainability, 3(10): 1866–1887

U.S. Oil and Gas Industry (blue curve blow out of same data)


and Please do not forget…

≈x

years manual labor?



≈11

years manual labor?



≈220years

manual labor!

1 year CO2 emissions in CH

Assuming: "1 barrel crude oil ~ 317 kg CO2 (min.)"Swiss emissions 6000 kg CO2eq/cap/a ""≈ roughly 20 barrels/cap/a


General Conclusions

Towards

Solutions


Towards Ambitious Mitigation of CCThe problem can be solved!

Emphasis on CCS


Towards Mitigating Climate Change?


… or OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion)

Vaccuum chamber

Evaporator

Warm water

Cold water

Desalinated water

Turbine generator

Pipe

condenser


Towards Ambitious Mitigation of CCThe problem can be solved!

Emphasis on Solar


Carrying Capacity of Humankind In a Changing Climate

adapted from "Cohen, J. E., 1995. How

many people can the Earth support? Norton: New York, a.o., X, 532 pp. "

Cohen, 1995. Science, 269: 341-346

Upper estimates by date at which the estimate was made

Schellnhuber, 2009. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference


• We need to look ahead far into the future to deal properly with complex systems containing delays #

• World problematics is not (yet) resolved#

• Man is causing the world problematics now andwill suffer the consequen-ces a bit later

General Conclusions (The End):


Overview 31. March 2015

Fundamentals of System Theory!

!Modeling

Summing Up Case Studies 1,2,3

Completing Case Study 3( )

• introduction/basic terms • systems ecology case studies ...courtesy hans-joachim schellnhuber,...

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