a leading sub-suppliers view on wind energy globalisation
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A leading sub-suppliers view on wind energy globalisation. Presented in Warsaw at EWEC 2010 By Stefan Karlsson, Global Segment Manager, SKF Renewable Energy 2010-04-21. 1. Globalisation of the dynamic wind energy market. The dynamic development of wind energy market. One turbine type - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A leading sub-suppliers view on wind energy globalisation
Presented in Warsaw at EWEC 2010
By Stefan Karlsson, Global Segment Manager, SKF Renewable Energy
2010-04-21
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 2
Globalisation of the dynamic wind energy market
1
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 2000 2005 2007 2009
MW
in
sta
lla
tio
ns
eac
h y
ear
The dynamic development of wind energy market
World total
Market leader Vestas
One turbine typeGE-Wind 1.5 MW
State of Texas
India / World #4
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 4
The real growth of wind energy market
Annual Wind Power Development
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990 1995 2000 2009 2014
MW
Europe USA Asia Rest of World ExistingSource: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Actual 1990-2009 & Forecast 2010-2014
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 5
Regional development of wind installations
EuropéAmericasAsiaOECD-PacificOthers
2002;
55.9%
23.4%
16.1%
4.2%0.4%2005;
32.6%
33.8%
29.1%
3.7%0.8%2008;
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 6
Global wind energy manufacturing overview 2010
Major turbine & gearbox OEM market
Major turbine OEM market
Major gearbox OEM market
Smaller/emerging turbine OEM market
Emerging/potential turbine OEM market
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 7
Gradual development towards a truly global market
Global Wind Power StatusCumulative MW by end of 2002, 2005 & 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Europe USA Asia Rest of World
2002 (32,037 MW) 2005 (59,399 MW) 2008 (122,158 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2009
Up until now, a European dominated industry
Next phase; a balanced growth between Europe, Asia and USA
Longer term;Asia and North America to dominate growth.
Global Wind Power Forecast
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Europe USA Asia Rest of World
2009 (160,084 MW) 2014 (447,689 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Cumulative MW by end of 2009 & Forecast 2014
Global Wind Power Projections
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Europe North America Asia Rest of World
2014 (447,689 MW) 2019 (966,332 MW)Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2010
Cumulative MW - Forecast 2014 & Prediction 2019
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 8
2SKF in wind energy
– a snapshot
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 9
Pitch bearings
Yaw bearing
Mainshaft housingsand locknuts
Condition Monitoring WindCon/WebCon
Couplings
Automatic distributedlubrication system
Monitoring and diagnosticsservices
Mechanical repairs &refurbishment
Sealing solutions
Bolt tensioning tools
Tower alignment services
EngineeringConsultancyServices
Plain bearings
Maintenance tools and grease
SKF contribution to wind turbine technology
Gearbox bearingsTRB/CRB/SRB/CARB/DRTRB
Generator bearingsDGBB/InsoCoated/Hybrid
Mainshaft bearing(s)SRB/CARB/TRB/CRB//Nautilus
Wind energy represents some 5 %of SKF Group sales, globally
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 10
SKF supplies to all major wind energy manufacturers
Wind turbine manufacturers (global ranking)
Rank Manufacturer Homebase
Supplied MW 2009
1 Vestas Denmark 4,7662 GE-Wind USA 4,7413 Sinovel China 3,5104 Enercon Germany 3,2215 Goldwind China 2,7276 Gamesa Spain 2,5467 Dong Fang China 2,4758 Suzlon India 2,4219 Siemens Wind Denmark 2,265
10 REpower Germany 1,29711 Nordex Germany 1,06012 United Power China 76813 Clipper Wind USA 59514 Mitshubishi Heavy Japan 58315 Mingyang China 573
Source: BTM Consult ApS, march 2010
Wind-gearbox manufacturers (global ranking)Rank Manufacturer Homebase
1 Winergy Germany2 Hansen Transm. Belgium3 China High Speed GB China4 Bosch-Rexroth Germany5 Dalian Heavy China6 Moventas Finland
Ranking by size: SKF estimate
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 11
3Globalisation case: SKF-Vestas
supply structure development
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 12
Logistic structure SKF-Vestas 2002
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 13
Logistic structure SKF-Vestas 2007
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 14
Logistic structure SKF-Vestas 2012
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 15
Learnings from the value chain development
• Long term firm relations between manufacturer and supplier supports development of logistic structure and reduces costs in system.
• Expansion of manufacturing capacity will take time, in particular the establishment of a new manufacturing unit in emerging markets might take years from decision to full implementation.
• Close communication between parties and long term shared forecast planning is vital for securing supply in an international structure.
• The present absence of supply bottlenecks in wind energy value chain might change rapidly with the return of ”normal” industry growth rate.
• Security stock levels at windturbine and gearbox-manufacturers has been reduced to a minimum during the period of financial crisis.
• With demand recovery in the wind energy market, there is a severe threat of ”catch-up effect” on requirements for volume supplies.
• Plan ahead and plan long term in close cooperation with supply chain
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 16
4Case: SKF Nautilus™
global roll-out of a new design
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 17
Turbine producers have different philosophies
They may appear similar,but they have totallydifferent design criteria
Different design criterias on wind turbine mainshaft requires different bearing arrangements
One needs stiff rotor bearings
And the other needs flexible rotor bearings
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 18
Basic drive train concepts: integration degree
Degree of integration
2-point suspension3-point
suspension1-point suspension
(no shaft)
2 separate housings
1 joint housing
1 bearing in gearbox
separateIntegrated in gearbox
1-point susp. (no shaft)
Full integration
2-point suspension
1-point suspension
Common hub
No axis
Turbines with gearbox Hybrid Turbine
Direct Drive
Flexiblebearing design
Flexiblebearing design
Flexiblebearing design
Fixed bearingdesign
Fixed bearingdesign
Fixed bearingdesign
Fixed bearingdesign
Semi-fixedbearingarrangement
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 19
SKF Nautilus™ -A new way of thinking in mainshaft design
Nautilus ™ key features;• Designed for heavy, complex loads.• Only pure torque load is being transmitted to the drivetrain.• Segmented cage for improved performance also under misalignment.• Extremely low friction coefficient.• Available for cold-climate locations
Nautilus™ equipped Sinovel 3 MWoffshore turbine installed in China
Initially developed to fulfill the tough requirements for Vestas V-90.
”Born to be stiff, and still manage to cope with deflections…”
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 20
Global roll-out; turbine manufacturing markets where Nautilus™ design has been selected (2009)
SKF Nautilus, officially market launched in 2005has now been selected by customers in 9 different countries,as mainshaft arrangement on different turbine models ranging from 1,5 MW up to 5 MW.
Manufacturing also established in Asia, to support the demand from the Asian markets.
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 21
5Summary and conclusions
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 22
Issues worth considering in wind globalisation
• New emerging countries as base for manufacturing are developing at exceptionally high speed within wind energy business.
• The quick expansion of wind energy, as well as the rapid development of the wind business into new emerging markets is creating new challenges for actors in the value chain.
• Establishment of new manufacturing units is a longer process for manufacturers of gearboxes and bearings than the time to set-up a new assembly unit for a turbine manufacturer.
• A close communication between manufacturers and their suppliers is needed for reduction of value chain costs and risks.
• Long term development, with manufacturing transplants to new markets should be well planned and coordinated, also with suppliers.
October 30, 2007 © SKF Group Slide 23