a little game theory1 a little game theory mike bailey msim 852
TRANSCRIPT
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A Little Game Theory 1
A LITTLE GAME THEORY
Mike Bailey
MSIM 852
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A Little Game Theory 2
BASICS
• Two or more competitors• Each chooses a strategy• Pay-off determined when all strategies known
• John Von Newmann and Oskar Morganstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944) seen by many as the first publication of Operations
Research Linear Programming is introduced in a chapter
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A Little Game Theory 3
TWO-PERSON ZERO-SUM GAME
• Most common form
• Two competitors, each will be rewarded
• Fixed reward total What one wins, the other loses
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A Little Game Theory 4
PAY-OFF MATRIX
• Presented as reward for player A
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
B’s strategy
A’s strategy
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A Little Game Theory 5
MAXIMIN (MINIMAX)
• A chooses the strategy where he gets the best payoff if B acts optimally Maximizes the minimum
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
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A Little Game Theory 6
MAXIMIN (MINIMAX)
• A chooses the strategy where he gets the best payoff if B acts optimally Maximizes the minimum
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
Does not alwaysoccur
“Saddlepoint”
Value of the Game
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A Little Game Theory 7
DOMINANCE
• y dominates x for player B
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
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A Little Game Theory 8
DOMINANCE
• y dominates x for player B• ...then 1 dominates 2 for player A
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
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A Little Game Theory 9
DOMINANCE
• y dominates x for player B• ...then 1 dominates 2 for player A• ......then y dominates z for player B
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
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A Little Game Theory 10
DOMINANCE
• y dominates x for player B• ...then 1 dominates 2 for player A• ......then y dominates z for player B• .........done
x y z
1 80 40 75
2 70 35 30
Doesn’t always happen
Useful for bigtables
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A Little Game Theory 11
MIXED STRATEGIES
w x y z
1 75 105 65 45
2 70 60 55 40
3 80 90 35 50
4 95 100 50 55
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A Little Game Theory 12
MIXED STRATEGIES
w x y z
1 75 105 65 45
2 70 60 55 40
3 80 90 35 50
4 95 100 50 55
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A Little Game Theory 13
MIXED STRATEGIES
w x y z
1 75 105 65 45
2 70 60 55 40
3 80 90 35 50
4 95 100 50 55
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A Little Game Theory 14
MIXED STRATEGY
• A will choose strategy 1 with probability p V(y) = 65p + 50(1-p) V(z) = 45p + 55(1-p)
• What value of p makes A indifferent to B’s choice?
y z
1 65 45
4 50 55
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A Little Game Theory 15
MIXED STRATEGY
• A will choose strategy 1 with probability p 65p + 50(1-p) = 45p + 55(1-p)
• p = 0.8• V = 53
• B will choose y with probability q 65q + 45(1-q) = 50q + 55(1-q)
• q = 0.6• V = 53
y z
1 65 45
4 50 55
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A Little Game Theory 16
PRISONER’S DILEMMA
• Payoffs are jail sentences (for A, for B) in years
silent betray
silent 1/2, 1/2 10, free
betray free, 10 2,2
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A Little Game Theory 17
PRISONER’S DILEMMA• Pareto Optimum
No move can make a player better off without harming another• Nash Equilibrium
No player can improve payoff unilaterally
silent betray
silent 1/2, 1/2 10, free
betray free, 10 2,2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner's_dilemma
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A Little Game Theory 18
APPLICATIONS
• ASW (Hide and Seek)
• Arms Control
• Advertising Strategy
• Smuggling
• Making the All-Star Team
• Multiethnic Insurgency and Revolt
• Drug Testing (Wired, August 2006)
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A Little Game Theory 19
ITERATED PD
• Set a strategy involving a sequence of choices and memory of the (choice, outcome)
• Random termination of the game• Noise in the game• Specified payoff matrix
The Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma Competition:Celebrating the 20th Anniversary
http://www.prisoners-dilemma.com/