A Look at Super Typhoon Nuri (2014) Clark Evans, 14 November 2014 Friday Weather Discussion Super Typhoon Nuri (2014) Image credit: Unisys Weather Synoptic Charts 31 Oct-present: Priming the pump? Cyclones on the Waveguide: TC-jet interaction Future: Stubborn to disrupt the pattern? (Same links from Kyle Griffin as above, except move further out in time.) Warm Seclusion-Favoring Patterns Hart et al. (2006, Mon. Wea. Rev.) Cold-Core Warm-Seclusion 500 hPa height (contour), anomaly from mon. mean (shaded) 320 K isentropic PV (shaded) Poleward Heat Transport GFS 0-h Analyses and 0600 or 1200 UTC 14 November Forecast Anomalies computed from long-term running mean. LocationMax 850 hPa TNovember Max 850 hPa T Ranking Barrow, AK+0.4C+8.5C99 th % Fairbanks, AK+9.8C+8.0CRECORD Anchorage, AK+4.0C+8.0C>99 th % McGrath, AK+6.6C+9.5C>99 th % Nome, AK+0.4C+6.0C90-95 th % Cold Bay, AK+2.8C+11.5C85-90 th % Poleward Heat Transport Climatological data obtained fromNote: Event-maximum for November; Overall maximum for all of November. What Goes UpMust Come Down? GFS 0-h Analyses and 0600 UTC 14 November Forecast Anomalies computed from long-term running mean. What Goes UpMust Come Down? Anomalies are departures from period mean. November 2014 Temperature Outlook CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlooks Valid 6-10 NovValid 7-11 Nov Valid 8-12 Nov Valid 9-13 NovValid NovValid Nov ECMWF Forecast Verification Data courtesy Tim Hewson, ECMWF UTC 2 Nov 0000 UTC 31 Oct 0000 UTC 31 October Forecasts Charts valid 0000 UTC 8 November 2014 (t+8 days) Contoured: listed field, every 60 m or 4 hPa Shaded: forecast minus verifying analysis Cold colors = forecast too low, warm colors = forecast too high 500 hPa Height (m) Mean Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 0000 UTC 1 November Forecasts Charts valid 0000 UTC 8 November 2014 (t+7 days) Contoured: listed field, every 60 m or 4 hPa Shaded: forecast minus verifying analysis Cold colors = forecast too low, warm colors = forecast too high 500 hPa Height (m) Mean Sea Level Pressure (hPa) 0000 UTC 2 November Forecasts Charts valid 0000 UTC 8 November 2014 (t+6 days) Contoured: listed field, every 60 m or 4 hPa Shaded: forecast minus verifying analysis Cold colors = forecast too low, warm colors = forecast too high 500 hPa Height (m) Mean Sea Level Pressure (hPa)