A Low Carbon Society Scenario Study for Ratchaburi Province, Thailand

Savitri GarivaitPenwadee Cheewapongphan and Thanonphat Boonmann

17-18 November 2010Hotel Pullman

Bangkok, Thailand

LCS-RNet Workshop on Transition towards Low Carbon Societies in Thailand and Asia - Dialogue between policy-makers and researchers and

cross-sectoral approach

RatchaburiLocation

latitudes 13º32’15” Nlongitudes 90º49’09” E

Climate SW monsoon with very dry zonesMean Annual Temperature 21-38ºCAverage Annual Precipitation

1,303 mm (131 days)Population 2000 (2009)

791,217 (837,383) = 1.2% nat.Total Land 5,196.5 km2

(about 1% of the country)

Ratchaburi - Administration

Ratchaburi – Attractions

Ratchaburi – Economic Activities

Approach to Develop LCSS for Ratchaburi

• Identification of sources and sinks of GHG in Ratchaburi

• Conduct GHG emission estimation/inventory including all key categories

• Projection of the emissions for BAU and Countermeasure Cases

• Assessment of undertaken countermeasures

Key sources and sinks of GHG in Ratchaburi

1. Energy"sector• Industry

•Transportation• Other (Commercial/ Residential/etc.)

2. Agriculture sector • Fermentation

• Manure management

• Rice Cultivation

• Open burning • Agricultural soil

3. Land use change and Forestry sector

Emission Estimation Methodology

Based on IPCC Guidelines: revised 1996 and 2006, Tier 1

E = AD x EF

where

E = Emission

AD = Activity Data (Ratchaburi data)EF = Emission factor (default value)

Activity Data – Energy SectorManufacturing / Transportation / Others (Agriculture/Residential/etc. )

LPG

Electricity

Natural Gas

Coal

Banzene 91

Diesel

B5

Wood

Husk

Bagasse

bio-residue

Manufacturing

LPG

NGV

Benzene 91

Benzene 95

Diesel

B5

Gasohol 91

Gasohol 95

Transportation

Source of data:Ratchaburi Energy Office

Activity Data – Agriculture Sector

• Production

• Harvested area

• Planted area • Fertilizer

Source of data:Office of Agriculture

Economics

Ratchaburi - LULUCF Source of data:Land Development

Department and Satellite Data

GHG Emission/Removal from each Sector in 2007

20%

26%

54%

Energy sector Agriculture sector Landuse Change and Forestry sector

2.2 Mt CO2eq

2.9 Mt CO2eq- 6.2 Mt CO2eq

Total GHG emission 5.17 Mt CO2eq"

Total GHG removal - 6.18 Mt CO2eq (Forestry)

included Energy sector, Agriculture sector, Land use change

GHG Emission/Removal Key Category Analysis, 2007

2.2 Mt CO2eq

327,402.7

1,719,362.1

190,387.5

269,382.1

517,685.2

467,176.5

565,615.8

1,114,057.6

382.8

-6,176,000.0

-7,0

00,0

00

-6,0

00,0

00

-5,0

00,0

00

-4,0

00,0

00

-3,0

00,0

00

-2,0

00,0

00

-1,0

00,0

00 0

1,00

0,00

0

2,00

0,00

0

GHG emission (tons CO2eq)

Energy-Industry

Energy-Transportation

Energy-Other

Fermentation

Manure management

Rice cultivation

Open burning

Agricultural soil

Landuse Change

Forestry

Act

ivity

Net -1 Mt CO2eq

Emission Projection

Sector Driver

Energy GPP Growth

Agriculture GPP Growth and Production Growth

LULUCF Master Plan / Strategy

Base Year: 2007Projected Year: 2030

Principle: Projection vs. Drivers

Ratchaburi - GPP Trends, 2000-2009

2.2 Mt CO2eq

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

GP

P (m

illio

n ba

ht)

Manufacturing Transportation Agriculture/Commercial/Service GPP

Ave. GPP 44,108 million baht

Ratchaburi - Trends of Agriculture Production vs. GPP in 2000-2009

2.2 Mt CO2eq

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055 0.06 0.065 0.07 0.075 0.08

AGR/GPP

Pla

nted

are

a (r

ai)

major rice minor rice maize

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

0.04 0.045 0.05 0.055 0.06 0.065 0.07 0.075 0.08

AGR/GPP

Pla

nted

are

a (r

ai)

cassava sugarcane pineapple

Example of relationship between GPP and Production

GHG Emission/Removal Key Category Analysis, 2030

2.2 Mt CO2eq

646,392

7,022,551

309,192

788,539

1,767,956

511,210

984,175

1,941,182

-

-6,187,069

-8,0

00,0

00

-6,0

00,0

00

-4,0

00,0

00

-2,0

00,0

00 0

2,00

0,00

0

4,00

0,00

0

6,00

0,00

0

8,00

0,00

0

GHG emission (tons CO2eq)

Energy-Industry

Energy-Transportation

Energy-Other

Fermentation

Manure management

Rice cultivation

Open burning

Agricultural soil

Landuse Change

Forestry

Activ

ity

Total source 13.97 Mt CO2eq

Total sink -6.2 Mt CO2eq

Net 7.8 Mt CO2eq

Ratchaburi’s Vision in the Development Plan 2010-2013

Ratchaburi is•A reservoir of agricultural products exempt of pesticides and

toxics•A leader in producing local know-how products to export to

international market•A pure and natural touristic destination

•The last unique place before crossing the border of Thailand

Countermeasures for Low Carbon Society Following Ratchaburi Development Plan 2010-2013

Energy sectorUsed renewable energy in Industry sector and Transportation sector

Agriculture sectorEnhance "Good Agricultural Practice (GAP) by decreasing the use of chemical fertilizer, and by using pre-fermented organic matter instead of green manure or readily decomposable organic matter

Sample from Klang Municipality

Ratchaburi Towards LCS – Results

-8,000,000

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

Energy sector Agriculture Landuse Change andForestry

Activ ity

GHG

em

issi

on (C

O2e

q) BAU CM14%

4%

Conclusions and Perspectives

• Our approach enables to document key sources and sinks of GHG in Ratchaburi

• Our approach enables to investigate the potential of a “Local” Development Plan in reducing GHG emissions

• Our approach enables to assess the efficiency of a countermeasure, and so potential mitigation options to include in the scenarios to lead Ratchaburi to LCS

22

ขอบคุณคะ K hob K hun K ha

สวสัดคีะSawasdee K ha

Final ly…Live Cool ly with Strategy

( LCS)