a. m. kaynia f. nadim earthquake-induced landslides workshop un-isdr pavia, 5-6 april 2011
TRANSCRIPT
A. M. KayniaF. Nadim
Earthquake-induced landslides
Workshop UN-ISDR Pavia, 5-6 April 2011
Methodology (HFA2)
• Dilley et al. (2005): Natural Disaster Hotspots – A Global Risk Analysis. Report, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University.
• UN/ISDR (2009): Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland
• NGI (2009): Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and Conflict Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific. NGI Report 20071600-1
9 5 1 Material
Vulnerability
9
6.6
7.0
1.8
5.0
4.2
9
5 1 Barrier
9 5
1 Height
Use
6 4 3
Methodology
GIS implementation
Application and Advancement
• Global landslide and avalanche hotspots.
• Nepal Hazard and Risk Assessment for the WB
• GAR 2011 Indonesia
• Use of PGA for 475-year event based on most recent seismic hazard study for Indonesia (Irsyam et al., 2010).
• Reclassification of lithological data based on knowledge of local experts: Five versus two in the global analyses for the Global Assessment Report (UN/ISDR, 2009).
• Use of landslide databases for calibration of hazard, exposure and risk (DesInventar, NASA, WestJava Database)
Advancements in GAR 2009
Example: Hazard maps for EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia
Map of exposure to EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia
Future improvements (present gaps)
• Further calibration of models against observed landslides
• Development of vulnerability models in order to compute risk
• More refined seismic hazard data (for example, GEM)
• Prediction tools based on mechanical models (for example, model developed in EU project SAFER)
Mechanical model (SAFER)Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ 1980
Mechanical model (SAFER)Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ
Map of earthquake-induced displacements
Other gap: Time perspective
Socio-economic/societal vulnerability: Time perspective