a multi-asset approach to income investing · investment features schroder isf global multi-asset...
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January 2014. Above awards were won by the London office. *Schroder International Selection Fund is referred to as Schroder ISF Presentation for professional investors or advisors only
A Multi-Asset
Approach to
Income Investing
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Population aged over 60 from 1950 – 2050 US real interest rates
The demand for income A response to demographic and structural pressures
2
Sources: LHS: Bloomberg, Schroders 1971 – 2013; RHS: “World Population Ageing 1950-2050”, Population Division, DESA, United Nations.
Millions %
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013
US Inflation (yoy%) US Interest Rates (%)
An income solution Maximising the benefits of diversification and flexibility
Sources: Schroders, DataStream, 31 December 2013, volatility annualised standard deviation of 5 year monthly returns, DataStream Generic US 10 year, Bank of America Merrill
Lynch Global Credit (USD), Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Constrained (USD), JP Morgan GBI–EM Global Diversified Composite (USD), JPM EMBI Global
Composite, MSCI World High Dividend Yield (USD). Global Multi-Asset Income portfolio is calculated using five years of monthly data based on the realised annualise volatility
since inception and simulated volatility prior to inception. See disclaimer for detail of the simulation methodology.
EMD (Local FX)
MSCI World High Dividend Yield $
US 10 Year Dec 2013 Global Investment Grade Bond Index
Global High Yield Bond Index EMD $
US 10 Year June 2007 Global Multi-Asset Income Portfolio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Representative central bank target inflation rate
3
Current yield and volatility of asset classes
Current yield (%)
Volatility (%)
Approach for
Income Investing
Investment Features
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income Focus on sustainable income
5%* distribution in monthly or quarterly payments
Estimated 7%** total return p.a. with a target realised volatility of 5–7% p.a. (maximum 10% p.a.)
Directly invested in diversified, global sources of income
Launched in April 2012
$4bn in AUM from across Europe, Asia, Middle East and Latin America
5
*The fund intends to make regular fixed distributions to investors and, if its income is insufficient to cover these payments, these payments may reduce the fund’s capital
The target 5% distribution is formally reviewed on an annual basis. **This is a target only and is not guaranteed
How we ensure sustainability Guiding principals
Sustainable income Core to our philosophy
6
Up to 20 asset classes
Universe of 25,000+ potential
securities
Diversification
Strong balance sheets and stable
cash flows
Maximum 5% exposure to CCC
Quality
Direct investments in liquid, listed
securities
No loans or private equity
Liquidity
Global
Unconstrained Flexible
Schroder
ISF Global
Multi-Asset
Income
Global opportunity set Taking advantage of opportunities wherever they exist
7
Average
yield (%)
Europe
5.7
North America
5.7
South America
7.3
Asia Pacific
4.9
Africa
5.6
Philip Morris
Czech yield 8.2%
P/E 12
International US
dividend yield of
4.3% P/E 17
Vikings River
Cruises
8.9% yield
Net revenue up
67% y/y
Vale SA
P/E 16.6
Est EPS 5.1
5y div growth:
11.5%
Thai Tap Water
4.8% dividend yield
Inflation linked
returns
Revenue growth
8% p.a.
Woolworths
Holdings
Yield 3.15%, ROE
50.3
P/E 22.2
Global
Source: Schroders, as at 31 December 2013. Securities mentioned are for illustration purposes only and should be considered investment advice.
Unconstrained approach Allows unwanted risk to be minimised
Source: Schroders, iShares, as at September 2013 *SPDR as at 30 August 2013
Hidden exposures Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset
Income
DJ Select Dividend 28% US utilities 0.8% US utilities
S&P International Dividend 27% Australian equities, 18% telecoms 2.1% Australian equities, 6.0% telecoms
S&P EM Dividend 22% Brazilian equities, 19% utilities* 0.4% Brazilian equities, 6.1% utilities
iBoxx Global DM High Yield 12.4% CCC or unrated 4.0% CCC or unrated
iBoxx USD Liquid Investment
Grade 33% financials, 8 years of duration 4.2% banks, 3.5 years of duration
JPM EMBI Global Core 6.7% Russian bonds, 4.9% Venezuelan
bonds
0.6% Russian bonds, 0.3% Venezuelan
bonds
Uncon- strained
8
Security selection A better risk-adjusted yield than traditional indices
9
Sources: Schroders, BarraOne, Bloomberg, Datastream, 29 November 2013. Please note Schroder ISF Global Multi Asset Income is referred to as GMAI above. Volatility is using
5 year monthly standard deviation (p.a.%) for indices and BarraOne for sub-portfolio risk.
Targeting improved yield and reduced volatility through unconstrained quality investments
As at 29 November 2013 Yield % Volatility % Risk Adjusted Yield
World High Yield Equity (MSCI AC) 3.9 18.4 0.21
GMAI QEP Equity 4.5 15.5 0.30
Global High Yield Bond Index (ML) 6.0 9.7 0.62
GMAI US High Yield Debt 5.5 7.4 0.74
GMAI European High Yield Debt 5.6 13.6 0.40
EM USD Debt Index (JPM) 6.3 8.7 0.72
EM Local Debt Index 6.8 13.6 0.50
GMAI EM Local 8.4 9.2 0.91
GMAI EM USD Corporates 6.8 9.4 0.71
GMAI Fund 5.1 7.6 0.67
Uncon- strained
Flexible across and within asset classes Generating income
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Equity HighYield Debt
InvestmentGrade
EMUSD
EMLocal
Alternatives Cash
Potential Range Current Weight Actual Range Since Inception
Source: Schroders, as at 31 December 2013. the ranges shown are for physical exposures while tactical overlays may increase or decrease the overall exposure. Alternatives
exposure consists of Municipal bonds, infrastructure and property. Investment grade potential range is shown excluding municipal bonds.
Flexible
Flexibility in managing risk Managing duration through 2013
Source: Schroders, 31 December 2013
Global
Unconstrained Flexible
Effective duration
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0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
End June End
August
November
Years
Flexible
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income Performance Total return since inception
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income US 10 Year 70/30***
12 Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income | January 2014
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, 31 December 2013, A Acc share class, net of fees. *Cumulative performance since inception date of 18 April 2012. Volatility is calculated using
daily returns since inception. **Yield is the next 12 months dividend yield using Schroders’ forecasts for the equities and using the current effective yield to maturity for the fixed
income; it is gross of withholding tax. ***70/30 benchmark is 70% JP Morgan GABI & 30% MSCI World AC
USD 2013
%
Since Inception*
%
Yield**
%
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income A Acc 5.8 13.6 5.1
Annualised Volatility
Global Multi-Asset Income 4.3%
2014 Outlook
The economic recovery is gaining momentum But there are diverging cycles across regions
14
Source: Schroders, December 2013. For illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as a recommendation to buy or sell The views and opinions contained herein are those of the Fund Manager
BUBBLE (Growth momentum fading,
strong credit growth for an
extended time)
CRUNCH (Slowing growth, rising
defaults, wide credit spreads)
STABILISATION (Low growth, deleveraging,
defaults off the peak)
RELEVERAGING (Positive growth,
M&A up, low defaults,
lending picking up)
Historical context for US treasuries 2013: 4th worst year since 1900
15
Source: Thomson Datastream, Global Financial Data, Schroders. 20 December 2013
2012
2004
2001 Positive years : 97 (85%)
1983 Negative years : 17 (15%)
1974
1973
2006 1964
2005 1954
2003 1949
1996 1948
1980 1939
1979 1938
1977 1935
1972 1930 2010
1968 1929 2007
1965 1923 1992
1963 1920 1990
1961 1918 1988
1953 1917 1981
1952 1916 1975
1987 1946 1915 1966
1978 1944 1914 1957
1967 1943 1913 1945
1959 1942 1912 1940 2002
1958 1941 1911 1936 2000
1956 1937 1910 1934 1998
1955 1933 1908 1932 1997
2013 YTD 1951 1928 1906 1927 1993 2011
2009 1950 1909 1905 1926 1984 1991
1999 1947 1907 1903 1925 1971 1989 2008
1994 1931 1904 1901 1924 1960 1976 1995
1969 1919 1902 1900 1922 1921 1970 1986 1985 1982
-10 to -5 -5 to 0 0 to 2.5 2.5 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 15 to 20 20 to 25 25 to 30 30 to 35
Nominal total returns, %
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
US yield curve steepness offers protection Further 10 year US Treasury yield rise may require interest rate increase
Source: Bloomberg, Schroders. Spread between the 10 year and 2 year nominal bond yield from June 1976 to December 2013.
16
%
10 year – 2 year US Treasury spread at record high
Equities: 5 years of positive returns What does that mean for 2014?
17
Source: Global Financial Data, Thomson Datastream, Schroders, 30 September 2013
1931
2008
1937
2002
1974
1930
1917
1907
2001
1973
1966
1957
1941
1940
1920
1903
1893
1890
1884
1876
2000
1990
1981
1977
1969
1962
1953
1946
1939
1934
1932
1929
1914
1913
1910
1887
1883
1877
1873
2011
2007
2005
1994
1992
1987
1984
1978
1970
1960
1956
1948
1947
1923
1916
1912
1911
1906
1902
1899
1896
1895
1894
1892
1889
1888
1882
1881
1875
1874
2010
2006
2004
1993
1988
1986
1979
1972
1971
1968
1965
1964
1959
1952
1949
1944
1926
1921
1909
1905
1901
1900
1897
1886
1878
1872
1871
2009
2003
1999
1998
1996
1983
1982
1976
1967
1963
1961
1951
1943
1942
1925
1924
1922
1919
1918
1898
1891
1885
1880
1997
1995
1991
1989
1985
1980
1975
1955
1950
1945
1938
1936
1927
1915
1904
1958
1935
1928
1908
1879
1954
1933
2001
2000
1974
1975
2003
1931
1930
2012
2013
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Nominal % total return
2002
Post 2008 crisis
Post 2001 crisis
2008 crisis
Pre 2001 crisis
Merrill Lynch Fund Managers Survey Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio
Equity positioning and valuation Potential for increased volatility in 2014
Source: LHS: Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey; RHS: Schroders, 28 November 2013
18
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Net % overweight equities
Global equities vs. benchmark return
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900 1914 1928 1942 1956 1970 1984 1998 2012
Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (Shiller PE) Average
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Expensive
Cheap
Fixed income valuations High yield and investment grade spreads compressing
Less value in investment grade
Value appearing in emerging market debt, but caution required
Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor (October 2013), Schroders. 28 November 2013
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0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
JPM EMBI + Spread US HY Spread US IG Spread
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Equity
US
Hig
h Y
ield
EU
R Inv G
rade
Local E
MD
EU
R H
igh Y
ield
US
Inv
Gra
de
US
D E
MD
So
v
US
D E
MD
Corp
Asia
Inv
Gra
de
Pro
pert
y
Mun
icip
al B
onds
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Cash
& Incom
e
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income Positioning and yield by asset class
20
Source: Schroders, 31 December 2013. The equity allocation represents the QEP portfolio and the equity indexing. It does not include put options with a delta-adjusted exposure
of -0.7%. The investment grade allocation does not include futures held with an exposure of -19.7%. * Yield is the next 12 months dividend yield using Schroders’ forecasts for the
equities and using the current effective yield to maturity for the fixed income; it is gross of withholding tax.
Asset Class Yield
Local EMD 8.4%
Property 7.3%
EMD USD Sovereign 7.0%
EMD USD Corp 6.8%
EUR High Yield 5.6%
Municipal Bonds 5.5%
US High Yield 5.5%
Infrastructure 4.9%
Asia Investment Grade 4.7%
EUR Investment Grade 4.6%
Equity 4.5%
US Investment Grade 4.5%
Fund Yield* 5.1%
Equity
37% Fixed Income
56%
Alternatives
5%
Cash
3%
Physical Exposure (%)
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income
Application of guiding principals critical for 2014 Navigating volatility through QE tapering and stretched valuations
Source: Schroders, December 2013
21
Breadth of universe important when economic recovery faces diverging cycles
across regions
EM facing structural reforms – requires careful country selection and hedging
of EM FX
Flexibility required to manage duration, while investment grade valuations less
favourable
Opportunities seen in municipal bonds, lower duration EMD USD sovereign
Equities: focus on earnings growth to avoid potential bubbles (cyclicals
becoming more attractive)
US high yield: limited exposure to CCCs and favouring B rated securities
Global
Uncon- strained
Flexible
Offers a complete solution to the income problem - to provide extra income:
retirement
planning for university
wherever a consistent income is a key requirement.
Allowing client to ‘re-risk’ portfolio’s away from bond heavy allocations into a
Multi-Asset solution
Lower risk strategy for Portfolio Bonds and Pension transfers
“Lifestyling” within a pension portfolio
Cash plus strategy in a low interest rate environment
f
22
Which type of client might this be suitable for?
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income
ISIN Codes Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income & Schroder ISF Diversified Growth
23
Class Name Class Dis or Acc Currency ISIN
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income
A
Acc
USD
LU0757359368
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income
A
Dis
USD
LU0757359954
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income GBP Hedged
A
Acc
GBP
LU0903425840
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income GBP Hedged
A
Dis
GBP
LU0910996080
Schroder ISF Global Diversified Growth USD Hedged
A
Acc
USD
LU0776412461
Schroder ISF Global Diversified Growth GBP Hedged
A
Dis
GBP
LU0776411810
Joined Schroders in May 2011 as a fund manager in the multi-asset team and as a member of the Global Asset
Allocation Committee. His focus is on complex segregated mandates and on further enhancing our approach to tactical
asset allocation
Prior to joining Schroders Aymeric was Global Head of Global Investment Solutions at BBVA in Madrid
being responsible for multi asset products such as individual and corporate pension funds, balanced and dynamic asset
allocation solutions and life cycle funds
From 2002 to 2009 he worked in London at ABN AMRO Asset Management, Fortis Investments (merger in 2008) and
then BNP Paribas Investment Partners (merger in 2009). Within the TAA and Balanced team, he was Senior Portfolio
Manager and Head of Tactical Asset Allocation Research until 2008 and then Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Quantitative Strategies dedicated to absolute return strategies
From 1999 to 2002 Aymeric was Institutional Portfolio Manager at Dexia Asset Management in Paris and Luxembourg.
He also held various Junior equity positions from 1996 at KTL Luxembourg and Kempf Bfsc (small capitalisations)
CFA Charterholder, DESS and Master degree in Finance, Nancy 2 (France), Giessen (Germany), Lund (Sweden)
Aymeric Forest – Multi-Asset Fund Manager
Biographies
Responsible for the management of a number of multi-asset mandates that are principally focused on income and
dynamic asset allocation
Specialises in currency and commodity research and is a member of the Strategic Investment Group Multi-Asset
(SIGMA)
Investment career commenced in 2007 upon joining Schroders
Chartered Financial Analyst
Masters in Economics and Finance, Bachelors in Economics, Loughborough University
Iain Cunningham – Multi-Asset Fund Manager
24
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income - Fund Managers
Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income | October 2013
Important Information:
This document does not constitute an offer to anyone, or a solicitation by anyone, to subscribe for shares of Schroder International Selection Fund (the
“Company”). Nothing in this document should be construed as advice and is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell shares.
Subscriptions for shares of the Company can only be made on the basis of its latest Key Investor Information Document and prospectus, together with
the latest audited annual report (and subsequent unaudited semi-annual report, if published), copies of which can be obtained, free of charge, from
Schroder Investment Management (Luxembourg) S.A.
An investment in the Company entails risks, which are fully described in the prospectus.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors
may not get the amount originally invested.
Schroders has expressed its own views and opinions in this document and these may change.
This document is issued by Schroder Investment Management Ltd., 31, Gresham Street, EC2V 7QA, who is authorised and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, all telephone calls are recorded
MSCI
Third party data is owned or licensed by the data provider and may not be reproduced or extracted and used for any other purpose without the data
provider's consent. Third party data is provided without any warranties of any kind. The data provider and issuer of the document shall have no liability in
connection with the third party data. The Prospectus and/or www.schroders.com contains additional disclaimers which apply to the third party data.
For Middle East only: Schroder Investment Management Limited is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) and entered on the
DFSA register under Firm Reference Number: F000513. This document is intended for ‘professional clients only’, as defined by the DFSA Rules which
can be accessed from their website www.dfsa.ae. This document relates to a Fund which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the
DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any document in connection with this Fund. Accordingly, the DFSA have not approved
this document nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document, and has no responsibility for it.
For UAE Only: This document does not constitute a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates. Mutual Funds may be offered to a limited
number of sophisticated investors, as defined by the Securities and Commodities Authority Board Decision no. (13) of 2013.
Important information
25
Simulation:
The simulation was calculated using a fixed weighting of 20% equity, 37.5% corporate bonds, 17.5% high yield bonds, 7.5% EM corporate bonds, 7.5%
EM sovereign bonds and 10% EM USD bonds. Transaction costs are not included. The calculation methodology for the equity and fixed income
components are outlined below:
Fixed income
To calculate the fixed income element of this simulation we have used Barclays POINT to analyse a model portfolio composed of the fixed allocation in
terms of risk factors. This combination of risk factors is then used to estimate the price return series of the portfolio through time. We then added the
average yield over the same period of the standard indices of the fixed income components of the portfolio to obtain the total return series.
Equity
The simulation was calculated using QEP’s quantitative methodology using a global equity universe. The simulation constructs a portfolio of high quality
high dividend payers, using metrics such as interest coverage, free cash flow and price to earnings, whilst also focusing on value and avoiding dividend
cutters. The simulation was constructed to meet a minimum dividend yield of 2% in excess of the MSCI AC World High Dividend Index.
Important information
26
Risk considerations:
The capital is not guaranteed.
The fund intends to make regular fixed distributions to investors and, if its income is insufficient to cover these payments, these payments may reduce
the fund's capital.
All equity forward sales are with a single counterparty. In case of default, the relevant equities will be sold in the market and this may affect
performance.
Non-investment grade securities will generally pay higher yields than more highly rated securities but will be subject to greater market, credit and default
risk.
A security issuer may not be able to meet its obligations to make timely payments of interest and principal. This will affect the credit rating of those
securities.
Investments denominated in a currency other than that of the share-class may not be hedged. The market movements between those currencies will
impact the share-class.
Investment in bonds and other debt instruments including related derivatives is subject to interest rate risk. The value of the fund may go down if interest
rate rise and vice versa.
The Fund may hold indirect short exposure in anticipation of a decline of prices of these exposures or increase of interest rate.
The Fund may be leveraged by trading in a high volume of derivatives to achieve a risk target consistent with its risk profile
Important information
27