a national climate service: functions, composition, and location edward miles, amy snover, lara...

A National Climate Service: Functions, Composition, and Location

A National Climate Service: Functions, Composition, and Location

Edward Miles, Amy Snover, Lara Whitely Binder, E.S. Sarachik, Philip

Mote, and Nathan Mantua

Edward Miles, Amy Snover, Lara Whitely Binder, E.S. Sarachik, Philip

Mote, and Nathan Mantua

OutlineOutline

Why a National Climate Service (NCS)?

What is a NCS?

What functions should it perform?

What services should it provide?

What performance metrics are to be employed?

How should it be designed?

Moving toward implementation (2007-2009)

Why a National Climate Service (NCS)?

What is a NCS?

What functions should it perform?

What services should it provide?

What performance metrics are to be employed?

How should it be designed?

Moving toward implementation (2007-2009)

All questions answered from perspective of a RISA program of the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) with 15 years experience.

Why a National Climate Service?

Why a National Climate Service?Why a climate service?

Growing awareness within research and resource management communities that climate variability and climate change are affecting natural and socioeconomic systems. These impacts vary from region to region given variations in climate patterns and natural/socioeconomic systems

Recognized need (and demand) for spatially-relevant research on climate and climate impacts. Demand for this information evidenced by (and due in part to) RISA work across the U.S.

Need for reliable and responsive technical support for the resource management community (if we are going to get broader use of forecasts)

Why a climate service?

Growing awareness within research and resource management communities that climate variability and climate change are affecting natural and socioeconomic systems. These impacts vary from region to region given variations in climate patterns and natural/socioeconomic systems

Recognized need (and demand) for spatially-relevant research on climate and climate impacts. Demand for this information evidenced by (and due in part to) RISA work across the U.S.

Need for reliable and responsive technical support for the resource management community (if we are going to get broader use of forecasts)



Why a climate service at the national scale?

Climate information is a public good (very important information for public natural resource management)

Need for a global observations network

Need to connect: nationally/internationally organized climate variability and change research communities to place-based translation and delivery of climate information basic and applied research on climate and climate impacts to operational entities

Why a climate service at the national scale?

Climate information is a public good (very important information for public natural resource management)

Need for a global observations network

Need to connect: nationally/internationally organized climate variability and change research communities to place-based translation and delivery of climate information basic and applied research on climate and climate impacts to operational entities

What is a National Climate Service?

What is a National Climate Service? A national climate service (NCS) integrates

climate observations, research on climate dynamics and impacts, outreach/decision support

At global, national, and regional scales to produce and deliver information on climate variability and change that is useful to decision-makers.

Stakeholders thought of as a continuously involved constituency.

Research should represent a balance between what stakeholders need for managing resources and what experts see as necessary for developing deeper understanding of the coupled climate/resource system.

A national climate service (NCS) integrates

climate observations, research on climate dynamics and impacts, outreach/decision support

At global, national, and regional scales to produce and deliver information on climate variability and change that is useful to decision-makers.

Stakeholders thought of as a continuously involved constituency.

Research should represent a balance between what stakeholders need for managing resources and what experts see as necessary for developing deeper understanding of the coupled climate/resource system.

NCS Functions for the System as a Whole

1. Link and integrate global, national, and regional observations infrastructure to produce information and assessments of use to stakeholders and researchers.

2. Basic and applied research on climate dynamics and impacts relevant to user interests.

3. Transition new climate applications products to NCS member agencies.

4. Create and maintain operational delivery systems.

5. Develop and maintain a continuing dialog between research teams, member agencies, and stakeholders for the developing information relevant for planning and decision-making.

6. Identify climate-related vulnerabilities and build national capacity to increase resilience.

7. Represent regional and national climate needs and concerns in regional and national policy arenas. Facilitate regional-national communications on NCS needs and performance.

8. Outreach

NCS Services at the National and Regional Level

1. Serve as a clearinghouse and technical access point to users for regionally and nationally relevant information on climate, climate impacts, and adaptation. This includes developing systematic databases of information relevant to specific regional and national user needs.

2. Provide education on climate impacts and vulnerabilities and use of climate information in decision-making to users.

3. Design decision-support tools for users that facilitate use of climate information in near-term operations and long-term planning.

4. Provide user access to climate and climate impacts experts for technical assistance in use of climate information and to inform the climate forecast community of their information needs.

5. Provide researcher access to users to help guide direction of research activities.

6. Propose and evaluate adaptation strategies for climate variability and change.

Functional Elements and Relationships of a National Climate Service

Global Modeling

Global Research

Global Observations

Regional Observ.

Regional Research

Regional Modeling

National Level

Global Level

Regional LevelUSER

What Performance Metrics are to be Applied?

What Performance Metrics are to be Applied? Degree of collaboration between:

Regional research teams and NCS member agencies Regional research teams and observations component NCS and regional stakeholders (users) [all NCS functions]

Relevance and quality of regional research efforts.

Relevance and quality of decision support and decision tools.

Evidence of impact on regional planning and decision-making by user communities. Assessed via periodic detailed systematic investigations

Degree of collaboration between: Regional research teams and NCS member agencies Regional research teams and observations component NCS and regional stakeholders (users) [all NCS functions]

Relevance and quality of regional research efforts.

Relevance and quality of decision support and decision tools.

Evidence of impact on regional planning and decision-making by user communities. Assessed via periodic detailed systematic investigations

The NCS Operating

Environment: A Macro View

National Climate Service

Interagency Partnership directed by NOAA Climate Program Office

Dept of Agriculture

Dept. of Defense

Dept. of Homeland Security

Dept. of Interior

Environmental Protection Agency

Dept. of Health and Human Services

Dept. of Housing and Urban Development

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin.

Global observation networks

Congress

Sta

keh

old

ers

(E

nd U

sers

) Stakeh

old

ers (End U

sers)

Regional System Level

Regional offices of NCS partner agencies +

NOAA RISAs

Regional Structure

National Structure

Regional Climate Centers

State Climatologists

Nat’l Integrated Drought Inform.

System

Planning for the Evolution of the NCS

Planning for the Evolution of the NCS

NCS begins in OAR with leadership of CPO, but cannot remain there indefinitely.

Reason is that OAR not an operational organization.

Question then is how do we spin off a fully operational NCS when it matures?

NCS begins in OAR with leadership of CPO, but cannot remain there indefinitely.

Reason is that OAR not an operational organization.

Question then is how do we spin off a fully operational NCS when it matures?

Moving Towards ImplementationMoving Towards Implementation

NIDIS, 2007NIDIS, 2007

Federal, State, Local, Tribal, Regional/Watersheds

WGA (2004), NIDIS Act (2006), USGEO (2006)WGA (2004), NIDIS Act (2006), USGEO (2006)Preceded by: Western States Water Policy Commission Preceded by: Western States Water Policy Commission

(1998), National Drought Policy Commission (2000)(1998), National Drought Policy Commission (2000)

NIDIS VISION and GOALSNIDIS VISION and GOALS

““A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”

Implementation requires:Implementation requires:

• Coordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting systemCoordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting system

• Foster, and support, a research environment that focuses on risk Foster, and support, a research environment that focuses on risk assessment, forecasting and managementassessment, forecasting and management

• Creating a drought early warning systemCreating a drought early warning system

• Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc)

• Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, fora, etc)(education materials, fora, etc)

Droughts span an enormous range of time scales, from short-term “flash droughts” that can have major agricultural impacts to multi-year or even decadal droughts (1930s, 1950s, etc.) Paleoclimate evidence suggests that in the last 1000 years parts of the U.S. have experienced “mega-droughts” that persisted for decades.

Droughts

Other climate modes

Challenge: Challenge: Diverse Temporal and Spatial ScalesDiverse Temporal and Spatial Scales

Slide 9Slide 9

The NIDIS Project Office: Structure, implementation teams and governance (incl.Exec. Council)

National Engaging the preparedness communities Monitoring and forecasting: gaps and capacity Education and Outreach Integrated research for generating drought risk scenarios The Drought Portal

Regional/State DEWS Pilots: Goals, Design, Implementation, Evaluation, Transferability

Partnerships: Federal, State, Tribal, Local, Watersheds

The NIDIS Project Office: Structure, implementation teams and governance (incl.Exec. Council)

National Engaging the preparedness communities Monitoring and forecasting: gaps and capacity Education and Outreach Integrated research for generating drought risk scenarios The Drought Portal

Regional/State DEWS Pilots: Goals, Design, Implementation, Evaluation, Transferability

Partnerships: Federal, State, Tribal, Local, Watersheds

Making NIDIS OperationalMaking NIDIS Operational

Governance Structure for NIDIS ImplementationNIDIS Executive Council

Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee) Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee)

NIDIS Program Office(NPO Director)

•Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAAand Interagency drought-related activities•Develop a national presence for NIDIS

(e.g. formal links to National Governors Ass’n)•Participate in GEOSS / IEOS

Public AwarenessAnd Education

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

U.S.Drought Portal

NIDIS Program Implementation Team (NPIT)

Working-Level Partner RepresentativesCoordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all NIDIS activities including pilot project selection

Chair: NPO Director

National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation

NIDIS Technical Working GroupsFederal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads

Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS ActivitiesDevelop pilot implementation and transferability criteria

Co-Chairs selected by NPIT

NIDIS Data information and assimilation and NIDIS Data information and assimilation and modelmodel: U.S. Drought Portal

NIDIS Data information and assimilation and NIDIS Data information and assimilation and modelmodel: U.S. Drought Portal

U.S. Drought Portal

The USDP will provide county, regional and national drought-related products (analysis, forecasts, and research) to a variety of users, ranging from individuals whose livelihood is impacted by drought to large corporations, water managers and the research community through a dynamic, Internet-based drought portal.

What is a Portal?

Sites on the World Wide Web that typically provide personalized capabilities for their visitors.

US GEO Context:

NDMC 2006

Tim

e S

cale

Tim

e S

cale

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Product Source

NOAA Service Requirement across scalesNOAA Service Requirement across scales

DiscoverDiscover

Climate

Weather

Proof ofProof ofConceptConcept

Experimental Experimental OperationalOperationalDevelopmentDevelopment

Research Operations

Suite of cooperatively definedUser and Stakeholder

Information Needs

Knowledge

Slide 11Slide 11

The NCSThe NCS

Stepping out on Design, Vail Workshop, Summer 2008

Stepping out on Design, Vail Workshop, Summer 2008

Peculiarities of Bureaucracy in U.S. (Rourke, 1984).

Peculiarities of Bureaucracy in U.S. (Rourke, 1984).

System doesn’t generate enough force at any point in chain to allow a divorce of politics from administration (like in UK, for instance).

Agencies must supplement resources from hierarchy with those they can garner on own as result of mobilizing allies into constituencies.

Agency heads seeking autonomy, security, & prestige (ASP dynamic). This a search for development of consensus necessary to allow survival, program formulation & implementation.

So system = an unruly horse: agency heads & staff mobilize constituencies against both Exec Branch & against Congress, but not simultaneously. Sometimes constituencies capture agencies; sometimes agencies get too powerful (FBI under Hoover)…….

System one of antagonistic cooperation in which lateral alliances common. This enormously time-consuming.

System doesn’t generate enough force at any point in chain to allow a divorce of politics from administration (like in UK, for instance).

Agencies must supplement resources from hierarchy with those they can garner on own as result of mobilizing allies into constituencies.

Agency heads seeking autonomy, security, & prestige (ASP dynamic). This a search for development of consensus necessary to allow survival, program formulation & implementation.

So system = an unruly horse: agency heads & staff mobilize constituencies against both Exec Branch & against Congress, but not simultaneously. Sometimes constituencies capture agencies; sometimes agencies get too powerful (FBI under Hoover)…….

System one of antagonistic cooperation in which lateral alliances common. This enormously time-consuming.

Peculiarities of U.S. Bureaucracy, cont’d.Peculiarities of U.S.

Bureaucracy, cont’d.

Since U.S. system one of antagonistic cooperation, policy decisions & actions are the results of 2 basic contending forces: 1. Needs & aspirations of constituencies; 2. Authority and expertise of bureaucrats re issues.

“Even though they may be created to achieve some major public good, executive agencies often come to regard preserving their own organizational well being as the most important of public goods”.

Expertise a fundamental source of power for bureaucratic orgs as result of: 1. Control of information and official routes to policy advice; 2. Legislated power to implement policy decisions; 3. Discretionary authority re implementation (agency rule-making).

Expertise leads to autonomy, but autonomy raises issues of accountability & effectiveness.

Since U.S. system one of antagonistic cooperation, policy decisions & actions are the results of 2 basic contending forces: 1. Needs & aspirations of constituencies; 2. Authority and expertise of bureaucrats re issues.

“Even though they may be created to achieve some major public good, executive agencies often come to regard preserving their own organizational well being as the most important of public goods”.

Expertise a fundamental source of power for bureaucratic orgs as result of: 1. Control of information and official routes to policy advice; 2. Legislated power to implement policy decisions; 3. Discretionary authority re implementation (agency rule-making).

Expertise leads to autonomy, but autonomy raises issues of accountability & effectiveness.

Peculiarities of U.S. Bureaucracy, cont’d.Peculiarities of U.S.

Bureaucracy, cont’d.

Irreversibility a major hazard of bureaucratic policy-making because course of action arrived at only after elaborate consultation & accommodation among diverse org interests. This consequence is source of great inertia.

Other sources of agency power & influence: 1. Size & capabilities of external constituencies; 2. Priority of task--leads to variation in scope of program & size of budget; 3. Leadership & public relations capabilities.

4. Org domain--leads to impacts & political salience.

Irreversibility a major hazard of bureaucratic policy-making because course of action arrived at only after elaborate consultation & accommodation among diverse org interests. This consequence is source of great inertia.

Other sources of agency power & influence: 1. Size & capabilities of external constituencies; 2. Priority of task--leads to variation in scope of program & size of budget; 3. Leadership & public relations capabilities.

4. Org domain--leads to impacts & political salience.

Institutional Challenges in U.S. Policy Making (Fiorino, 1995)

Institutional Challenges in U.S. Policy Making (Fiorino, 1995)

Institutional fragmentation in U.S. inherent in system--designed as system of checks & balances by framers of U.S. Constitution.

Agencies are fractionated collections of interests, roles, & specialists internally, each with own version of agency’s mission & core values. This condition produces multiple advocacy & multiple values in large & complex decisions.

Ultimate result is that system can achieve a certain level of coordination, but no comprehensive integration across policy fields.

Executive (White House) control--Constitution, power of appointments, and control over budget (OMB).

Institutional fragmentation in U.S. inherent in system--designed as system of checks & balances by framers of U.S. Constitution.

Agencies are fractionated collections of interests, roles, & specialists internally, each with own version of agency’s mission & core values. This condition produces multiple advocacy & multiple values in large & complex decisions.

Ultimate result is that system can achieve a certain level of coordination, but no comprehensive integration across policy fields.

Executive (White House) control--Constitution, power of appointments, and control over budget (OMB).

The PlayersThe Players

NASA, DOE, NSF not attending. EPA present &participating actively.

Kerry/Snowe Senate Draft Bill combining package including: 2ND Nat’l. Assessment, NCS as Fed interagency partnership with NOAA leadership (based on Miles et al design), etc.

NOAA, NWS, Interior (USGS, NPS, Bureau of Reclamation, BLM), Agriculture (Forest Service, Fish & Wildlife).

Most agencies & private sector opposed & pushing back. No clear outcome to discussions.

NASA, DOE, NSF not attending. EPA present &participating actively.

Kerry/Snowe Senate Draft Bill combining package including: 2ND Nat’l. Assessment, NCS as Fed interagency partnership with NOAA leadership (based on Miles et al design), etc.

NOAA, NWS, Interior (USGS, NPS, Bureau of Reclamation, BLM), Agriculture (Forest Service, Fish & Wildlife).

Most agencies & private sector opposed & pushing back. No clear outcome to discussions.

Stepping Out, cont’d.Stepping Out, cont’d.

Steering Com proposing creation of four “Tiger Teams” to meet in fall to evaluate pros & cons of four alternative designs: 1. a federation (inclu private sector); 2. a non-profit; 3: an interagency partnership, led by NOAA; & 4. expansion of the NWS into a weather & climate service.

Steering Com getting around conflict by prohibiting recs.

“Tough love” statement to NOAA, that if it wants to lead the NCS, it must get its internal house in order.

Steering Com proposing creation of four “Tiger Teams” to meet in fall to evaluate pros & cons of four alternative designs: 1. a federation (inclu private sector); 2. a non-profit; 3: an interagency partnership, led by NOAA; & 4. expansion of the NWS into a weather & climate service.

Steering Com getting around conflict by prohibiting recs.

“Tough love” statement to NOAA, that if it wants to lead the NCS, it must get its internal house in order.

So Where Do We Go from Here??So Where Do We Go from Here??

Climate Working Group of NOAA, in report to SAB, says internal reorg necessary in NOAA. Need collab discussion among agencies about roles in NCS; hinting that, for system to work, White House has to be involved.

Also suggesting interface with a federated structure for connecting with users & research community, but not clear how this system would work.

Defined large budget.

Climate Working Group of NOAA, in report to SAB, says internal reorg necessary in NOAA. Need collab discussion among agencies about roles in NCS; hinting that, for system to work, White House has to be involved.

Also suggesting interface with a federated structure for connecting with users & research community, but not clear how this system would work.

Defined large budget.

Towards a Solution: Proceeding from Two Ends

Towards a Solution: Proceeding from Two Ends

NOAA working on defining internal org. CPO convincing Interior & USDA to support. NASA, DOE, & NSF formally silent. EPA seems inclined to support. Some in private sector annoyed. Process stuck. Moves to get OSTP to convene discussions in role as facilitator. OSTP appears to be willing.

Legislative options now on fast track: Kerry/Snowe again? Hall of Texas in what seems to be attempted end-run by NWS? Dicks of WA in Bill bearing many hallmarks of Miles et al, HR 2306, now being marked up by Science & Tech Com of House. Is this the inside track? $2b over 5 yrs, beginning in 2011.

Word from D.C. is that odds on creation of NCS this session. We’ll see!

NOAA working on defining internal org. CPO convincing Interior & USDA to support. NASA, DOE, & NSF formally silent. EPA seems inclined to support. Some in private sector annoyed. Process stuck. Moves to get OSTP to convene discussions in role as facilitator. OSTP appears to be willing.

Legislative options now on fast track: Kerry/Snowe again? Hall of Texas in what seems to be attempted end-run by NWS? Dicks of WA in Bill bearing many hallmarks of Miles et al, HR 2306, now being marked up by Science & Tech Com of House. Is this the inside track? $2b over 5 yrs, beginning in 2011.

Word from D.C. is that odds on creation of NCS this session. We’ll see!