a new episode in eu-turkish relations: why so much bitterness?

8202019 A New Episode in EU-Turkish Relations Why so Much Bitterness

httpslidepdfcomreaderfulla-new-episode-in-eu-turkish-relations-why-so-much-bitterness 14

1G|M|F December 2015

Te EU-urkey Summit on November 29 2015 hasbeen described as a revitalization o EU-urkishrelations afer years o inertia Some very prom-ising concrete actions with associated timelines arementioned in the summit conclusions such as regularhigh-level meetings the opening o new chaptersurther dialogue in energy cooperation and theupgrading o the customs union Te most attentionis paid to the possibility o visa-ree travel or urkish

citizens as early as 2016 Tis could be hailed as a newera in EU-urkish relations an end to the divergenceperiod that began in 2004 and a new period o conver-gence that would bring the two parties together

One would expect that such a major breakthroughwould be greeted with enthusiasm in pro-EU circles inurkey But the initial reactions were tepid Tere is anair o suspicion and disappointment among the mostdevoted urkish advocates o urkeyrsquos membership tothe EU

Te promising outcomes o the summit are not areturn to the concrete reorms urkey undertook inrecent years or the improvements in urkeyrsquos recordo striving to meet membership requirements Onthe contrary the European Commission documentedits criticism o urkeyrsquos backsliding on undamentalissues such as human rights reedom o speech

In Brief The recent EU-Turkey

Summit may have revitalized EU-

Turkish relations after years of

inertia but initial reactions in pro-EU

circles have been tepid There is

instead an air of suspicion since

the EU has broken promises before

The debate on the future form of

the EU is heating up Turkey is being

reinvented as the guardian of theWestern borders in exchange for

nancial aid and certain privileges

which is a major concern for all

those who wish to see Turkey as a

full member of a meaningful union

with consistent values

A New Episode in EU-Turkish

Relations Why so Much

Bitterness

by Oumlzgehan Şenyuva and Ccediliğdem Uumlstuumln




| On Turkey |

and transparency in its 2015 progress report Sucha reboot is clearly not intended as an anchor orurkeyrsquos democracy either as it is utilizing condition-ality moderately Nor is it a result o the EU memberstates unified vision on the uture o Europe Certainmembers are reluctant about or even outright hostileto urkeyrsquos membership

urkey has witnessed politics overtaking promisesbeore Tereore there is a sense o doubt regardingboth the opening o new chapters and the visa-reetravel Te opening o new chapters is a token gesture

i they cannot ever be closed because o the Cyprusissue Also there is no sign that member states suchas France which earlier vetoed urkeyrsquos membershiphas changed its mind Visa liberalization a grandgesture or many urkish citizens also has prerequi-sites including urkey lifing its geographical limita-tion to its ratification o the 1951 UN Convention onthe Status o Reugees (ldquoReugee Conventionrdquo) whichgives reugee status to those fleeing ldquoevents occurringin Europerdquo Tis is a clear deal breaker or urkey andis officially linked to the condition o ull member-ship1

Security in Exchange for What

Armed conflicts in some Arican countries Aghani-stan and Iraq have sent migrants flowing into theEuropean Union countries Over the last two yearsthis situation has veered out o control with additionalSyrian reugees trying to make it to Europe Te EUmight find a solution by including and mobilizingurkey

1 An ofcial document from the EU Ministry of Turkey clearly states that the

geographical limitation will be lifted only after full EU membership is achieved

See TC AB Bakanlığı Vize Serbestisi Diyaloğu httpwwwabgovtrlesstib

TR-ABVizeSerbestisipdf

Although neither side has said so the deal would bedefined as the ldquotriumph o the realpolitikrdquo2 It has beenalso argued that 2015 has been the year in which issuessuch as regional security terrorism and the flow oreugees heightened strategic thinking a wake-up callto realism3

In urkeyrsquos relations with the West the United Stateshas been seen as the strategic partner while the EU hasbeen more sensitive to human rights issues as well asdemocratization4 However the latest deal between theEU and urkey highlights the importance o strategic

geopolitics urkeyrsquos geopolitical significance hasbeen the determining actor o urkish oreign policyexcept or the EU membership talks in which respector human rights reedom o speech and minorityrights have been the exigent items on the agendaHowever the ollowing events have undermined theEUrsquos role in urkeyrsquos democratization process anddisappointed EU supporters in the country the post-ponement o the critical 2015 Progress Report untilafer urkish parliamentary elections German Chan-cellor Angela Merkelrsquos visit to Ankara beore the elec-tions to talk about a deal on reugees and the obvious

tit-or-tat strategy regarding the reugee crisis

Te statements o some EU officials have madematters worse ake or example ldquoTis is what comeso political panic We went to him on our knees andnow he is playing usrdquo5 In his speech at the EuropeanParliament European Commission President JeanClaude Junker highlighted the importance o strategicthinking by telling parliamentarians that the EU canharp on human rights and democratization issues in

2 Jean de Ruyt ldquoThe EU ndash Turkey Summit of 29 November 2015 A lsquoRe-Energisedrsquo

Relationshiprdquo httpwwwglobalpolicywatchcom201512the-eu-turkey-sum-mit-of-29-november-2015-a-re-energised-relationship

3 Samuel Doveri Vesterbye ldquoEU-Turkey A Timely Starting Pointrdquo httpwww

euractivcomsectionsglobal-europeeu-turkey-timely-starting-point-319604

4 Michael Pizzi ldquoTurkey Compromise Signals EU lsquoDesperationrsquo Over Refugeesrdquo

httpamericaaljazeeracomarticles20151130turkey-compromise-signals-

eu-desperation-over-refugeeshtml

5 Marc Pierini former EU ambassador to Turkey as quoted in Alex Barker ldquoBrus-

sels Bows Deeply to Erdogan to Relieve Migrant Crisisrdquo httpwwwftcomintl

cmss00410ec50-9113-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7afhtmlaxzz3sIHwMK1m

Turkey has witnessed politics

overtaking promises before




| On Turkey |

urkey ldquobut we need to involve urkey in our initia-tives We want to ensure that no more reugees comerom urkey into the European Unionrdquo6

As urkey is struggling in its relations with itssouthern neighbors and Russia (in which it put a loto effort to increase trade economic and social ties aswell as political relations in the last 15 years) the EUis once again a viable partner However under pres-sure rom the economic and financial crisis togetherwith the migration flow to Europe the EU wantsurkey to act as the buffer zone to at least stop the

migrants entering the EU borders President Recepayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and DevelopmentParty government are clearly willing to instrumen-talize the migration card (and succeeding to a degree)as a leverage to improve the relations with the EU7 However while such initiatives put the EU back onthe urkish political agenda they appear to be ratherineffective at consolidating and supporting democrati-zation efforts in the country

Debate on the Future of Europe and Turkey

urkeyrsquos role in the reugee crisis today may becompared to its role as a buffer zone within NAOduring the Cold War Te summit conclusions indicatethat urkey is an important periphery country sincethe reugee inflow has caught the EU at a bad timeOn one hand the British are demanding EU reormson the other urther economic integration needs areputting the EU in a very difficult position regardingthe uture o the ldquoever closer unionrdquo EU members alsodiffer on how to deal with Russia regarding Ukraineand sharing the burden o reugees

In this political and economic setting the debateon the uture orm o the EU is heating up urkey

6 Raziye Akkoc ldquoEU Should Not lsquoHarp Onrsquo at Turkey about Human Rights Says

Jean-Claude Junckerrdquo httpwwwtelegraphcouknewsworldnewseurope

turkey11957432EU-should-not-harp-on-at-Turkey-about-human-rights-says-Jean-

Claude-Junckerhtml

7 Aykan Erdemir ldquoErdoğan Gags Turkeyrdquo httpwwwpoliticoeuarticleerdogan-

gags-turkey-weapons-nationalist

is being reinvented as the guardian o the Westernborders in exchange or financial aid and certain privi-leges which is a major concern or all those who wishto see urkey as a ull member o a meaningul unionwith consistent values

Emphasizing strategic threats and relations withregional countries has ound its place in the EUrsquos newsecurity strategy endeavors Te European Commis-sionrsquos DG External Relations office highlights wide-spread conflicts terrorism inrastructural threats andclimate change as the main security threats or Europe

in their report Towards a New European SecurityStrategy Assessing the impact of changes in the globalsecurity environment 8 Te same document also callsor the EU to ully adapt to this volatile strategic envi-ronment and identifiable uture threats Te EUrsquos newsecurity strategy is expected to emphasize cooperationwith NAO more than ever Tese changing securityconcerns together with possible structural changes inthe EU could point to a strategic partnership betweenurkey and the EU instead o ull membership

It is believed that anything less than ull member-ship would not be able to push or the conditionalityclause while strategic partnerships do not necessarilyneed democratization as a precondition urkey as a

8 httpwwweuroparleuropaeuRegDataetudesSTUD2015534989EXPO_

STU(2015)534989_ENpdf

Changing security concerns

together with possible

structural changes in the

EU could point to a strategic

partnership between Turkey

and the EU instead of full

membership




| On Turkey |

Te views expressed in GMF publications and commentary arethe views o the author alone

About the Authors

Oumlzgehan Şenyuva is an associate proessor in the International

Relations Department at Middle East echnical University

Ankara where he works extensively on public opinion urkey-

European relations and the politics o European ootball Assoc

Pro Dr Ccediliğdem Uumlstuumln currently works in the Political Science

and Public Administration Department o Gediz University

İzmir She received her PhD degree rom Limerick University

Ireland

About the On Turkey Series

GMFrsquos On urkey is an ongoing series o analysis bries about

urkeyrsquos current political situation and its uture GMF provides

regular analysis bries by leading urkish European and US

writers and intellectuals with a ocus on dispatches rom on-

the-ground urkish observers o access the latest bries please

visit our web site at wwwgmusorgturkey

About GMF

Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF)

strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional national and

global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall

Plan GMF does this by supporting individuals and institutions

working in the transatlantic sphere by convening leaders and

members o the policy and business communities by contribut-

ing research and analysis on transatlantic topics and by provid-

ing exchange opportunities to oster renewed commitment

to the transatlantic relationship In addition GMF supports

a number o initiatives to strengthen democracies Founded

in 1972 as a non-partisan non-profit organization through a

gif rom Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan

assistance GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o

the Atlantic In addition to its headquarters in Washington DCGMF has offices in Berlin Paris Brussels Belgrade Ankara

Bucharest and Warsaw GMF also has smaller representations

in Bratislava urin and Stockholm

1744 R Street NWWashington DC 20009 1 202 683 2650| F 1 202 265 1662| E inogmusorg

loyal NAO ally with geostrategic importance and thehost o more than 2 million Syrian reugees can easilybe turned into a strategic partner at the peripheryTe concerns about human rights and democracy inurkey could become secondary as long as urkeyperorms well as a partner in security just as was thecase during the Cold War when even military regimeswere tolerated by the United States

One has to understand the skepticism o those whotreat the summit conclusions as a bitter pill coatedwith sugar Losing the EU anchor at a time when it is

so needed is a serious blow




| On Turkey |

and transparency in its 2015 progress report Sucha reboot is clearly not intended as an anchor orurkeyrsquos democracy either as it is utilizing condition-ality moderately Nor is it a result o the EU memberstates unified vision on the uture o Europe Certainmembers are reluctant about or even outright hostileto urkeyrsquos membership

urkey has witnessed politics overtaking promisesbeore Tereore there is a sense o doubt regardingboth the opening o new chapters and the visa-reetravel Te opening o new chapters is a token gesture

i they cannot ever be closed because o the Cyprusissue Also there is no sign that member states suchas France which earlier vetoed urkeyrsquos membershiphas changed its mind Visa liberalization a grandgesture or many urkish citizens also has prerequi-sites including urkey lifing its geographical limita-tion to its ratification o the 1951 UN Convention onthe Status o Reugees (ldquoReugee Conventionrdquo) whichgives reugee status to those fleeing ldquoevents occurringin Europerdquo Tis is a clear deal breaker or urkey andis officially linked to the condition o ull member-ship1

Security in Exchange for What

Armed conflicts in some Arican countries Aghani-stan and Iraq have sent migrants flowing into theEuropean Union countries Over the last two yearsthis situation has veered out o control with additionalSyrian reugees trying to make it to Europe Te EUmight find a solution by including and mobilizingurkey

1 An ofcial document from the EU Ministry of Turkey clearly states that the

geographical limitation will be lifted only after full EU membership is achieved

See TC AB Bakanlığı Vize Serbestisi Diyaloğu httpwwwabgovtrlesstib

TR-ABVizeSerbestisipdf

Although neither side has said so the deal would bedefined as the ldquotriumph o the realpolitikrdquo2 It has beenalso argued that 2015 has been the year in which issuessuch as regional security terrorism and the flow oreugees heightened strategic thinking a wake-up callto realism3

In urkeyrsquos relations with the West the United Stateshas been seen as the strategic partner while the EU hasbeen more sensitive to human rights issues as well asdemocratization4 However the latest deal between theEU and urkey highlights the importance o strategic

geopolitics urkeyrsquos geopolitical significance hasbeen the determining actor o urkish oreign policyexcept or the EU membership talks in which respector human rights reedom o speech and minorityrights have been the exigent items on the agendaHowever the ollowing events have undermined theEUrsquos role in urkeyrsquos democratization process anddisappointed EU supporters in the country the post-ponement o the critical 2015 Progress Report untilafer urkish parliamentary elections German Chan-cellor Angela Merkelrsquos visit to Ankara beore the elec-tions to talk about a deal on reugees and the obvious

tit-or-tat strategy regarding the reugee crisis

Te statements o some EU officials have madematters worse ake or example ldquoTis is what comeso political panic We went to him on our knees andnow he is playing usrdquo5 In his speech at the EuropeanParliament European Commission President JeanClaude Junker highlighted the importance o strategicthinking by telling parliamentarians that the EU canharp on human rights and democratization issues in

2 Jean de Ruyt ldquoThe EU ndash Turkey Summit of 29 November 2015 A lsquoRe-Energisedrsquo

Relationshiprdquo httpwwwglobalpolicywatchcom201512the-eu-turkey-sum-mit-of-29-november-2015-a-re-energised-relationship

3 Samuel Doveri Vesterbye ldquoEU-Turkey A Timely Starting Pointrdquo httpwww

euractivcomsectionsglobal-europeeu-turkey-timely-starting-point-319604

4 Michael Pizzi ldquoTurkey Compromise Signals EU lsquoDesperationrsquo Over Refugeesrdquo

httpamericaaljazeeracomarticles20151130turkey-compromise-signals-

eu-desperation-over-refugeeshtml

5 Marc Pierini former EU ambassador to Turkey as quoted in Alex Barker ldquoBrus-

sels Bows Deeply to Erdogan to Relieve Migrant Crisisrdquo httpwwwftcomintl

cmss00410ec50-9113-11e5-bd82-c1fb87bef7afhtmlaxzz3sIHwMK1m

Turkey has witnessed politics

overtaking promises before




| On Turkey |










Claude-Junckerhtml








STU(2015)534989_ENpdf







membership




| On Turkey |


About the Authors








Ireland








About GMF
























| On Turkey |










Claude-Junckerhtml








STU(2015)534989_ENpdf







membership




| On Turkey |


About the Authors








Ireland








About GMF
























| On Turkey |


About the Authors








Ireland








About GMF





















a new episode in eu-turkish relations: why so much bitterness?

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