a new opportunity for ssr in arab-muslim countries? by saul mauricio rodriguez

8/6/2019 A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries? by Saul Mauricio Rodriguez

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ontent of this edition

New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-

slim Countries?

Sal Rodrguez

p i c s o f A n A l y s i s

rocco in the Face of the Tunisian

volution

Abdallah Saaf

e Future of Security in the Arab

gion

Azmi Shuaibi

v e l o p i n g p r o j e c T s

SN: Championing Local Ownership

d SSR Dialogue in Africa

Philip Emase

ws

b l i c A T i o n s

ordination: Rodrigo lvarez

[email protected]

ting and layout: Ney Fernandes

@securitytransformation.org

w . s e c u r i t y t r a n s f o r m a t i o n . o r g

A New Opportunity for SSR in Arab-Muslim Countries?

by Sal Rodrguez*1

The New Year began with demonstrations and riots in several countries in the MiddleEast and North Africa. For decades the region has experienced stable politicalconditions, ranging from governments supported by Washington in order to maintainregional stability, like Egypt, to Libya, lead by Muammar el-Qadda, a singular actor in Africafor over 40 years.

Most of these are anti-democratic regimes where civil society has been absent from politicalinstitutions and power, after the struggle to eliminate the colonial past and reject a Western

political framework. Currently, local economic conditions, employment crises and limitedpolitical participation for many people have led thousands to demand change in severalaspects of society.

These popular movements have created a new chance for a transitional period from anauthoritarian model to a democratic one, and in other cases have caused local powers toconsider a new democratic awareness.

This situation could generate a new environment for security sector reform, but Any changeof security institutions should be part of a coherent program supervised by the internationalcommunity, but rmly developed in a local context and focused on the needs of the population,rather than trying to copy Western models.

In this line, a democratic opening in the Middle East and North Africa should imply a solid

human security perspective to solve structural and social problems such as poverty, unequalsocio-economic conditions, freedom from want and so on, in order to consolidate a realdemocracy supported by the populace.

On the other hand, transformation of the security apparatus should include a totalprofessionalization of these institutions to maintain democracy and security, and police andmilitary institutions subordinated to the will of the people.

For this purpose, it should encourage the creation of civil-control institutions (as NGOsinterested to security issues), a well-dened role for civilians and the military in securitymatters, security institutions properly trained in human rights and democratic issues underspecialized international institutions, and strengthen parliamentary watchdogs in securityissues.

Therefore, the next several years will be an opportunity, and a challenge, to these countriesto create a real democratic environment. However, this mission is not easy and theimpending decisions could make things better or worse depending on social pressure and if

old fashioned leaders are interested in transferring their power to the masses.

* Research coordinator for Corporacin Oxgeno Social, Ponticia Universidad Javeriana

April 2011Bulletin no. 10

TransformingBulletine

http://www.miliwoman.com: George Fernandes Photo: FlickrFotografa: archivo personal

Photo: Celme Mathias
http://www.securitytransformation.org/http://www.securitytransformation.org/


2/9

2Bulletin no. 10

Morocco in the Face of the Tunisian Revolution

y Abdallah Saaf*

Top ic of AnAlys i s

Photo: Isabelle Fortin

The relative silence of Moroccanpoliticians with respect to the

change in Tunisia is surprising. The

nations political elite has been incapable

of reacting to the events of late 2010 and

anuary of this year. There is a tendency to

ee in this timid reaction further proof of the

weakness of the Moroccan political actors

and their withdrawal from public debate.

The Tunisian model has become a

heavy ideological and political burden

accused of delaying the Moroccan

process of democratization in two ways:

First, Moroccan political life has been

dominated by the view that the countrys

economic development takes precedence

over political evolution; and secondly,

t was believed that any opening would

olely favor the Islamists. Both theories

were becoming quite popular in Morocco.

Hence, the recent events in Tunisia directly

question the Moroccans: What changes

temming from the Tunisian Revolution

allow us to decipher what is happening in

Morocco? What are the opportunities to

emulate these events? What are the future

prospects for democracy in the region?

Following the resignation of Zine al-Abidine

Ben Ali, many observers thought that the

army was preparing to take power. One

of the natural reflexes of the autocratic

officials is being carried away by the ease

of power whenever the circumstances allow

t, and crush the opposition along the way.

Therefore, it proceeds to the

decertification of the policies around theeader and produces depoliticalization.

Authoritarianism breeds deterioration. A

better policy would have been to monitor

the health of the government, the strengthof its components, the vitality of its

interactions and avoid anything that could

weaken it.

In the case of Tunisia, the Islamist

alternative did not contribute a response

to either the political or social questions.

The discussions focus on theological-

political questions such as the State andIslamic societies, religion, the Constitution,

elections, etc. The Islamist economic or

social program seemed quite unconvincing,

while the charitable channels being

exploited gave the impression of having

been worn out. Within the Tunisian context,

there are few probabilities of creating a

connection between religion and politics,

with the more likely outcome

being the participation of

the Islamists in an eventual

coalition.

Emulate the Tunisian

process?

The conditions for

reproducing the Tunisian

process in Algeria, Libya

or Morocco vary by county.

Each has its own problems;

each State is guided by its

own biases, inclinations

and perspectives, and

there is not necessarily an

automatic transmission.

However, the events in

Tunisia could provoke

emulation throughout theregion and unleash the

spread of popular forces

and political, economic and

social demands.

Among the similarities worth noting is

that security forces have become vital

actors. Their relation with society today

is much more complex. The possibility

of change through new coalitions also

seems plausible. Other similarities

include the rejection of the old forms of

authoritarianism, a comparable economicpolicy amongst regimes, the importance of

social issues and the growing importance

that the issue of dignity has taken on.

There also are influences that cannot be

ignored. Indeed, the fall of the Tunisian

regime involves the collapse of the famous

Tunisian Model relied on by numerous

Photo: Celme Mathias
http://www.securitytransformation.org/


3/9

Moroccan politicians, among others,

eeking to postpone the processes of

emocratization in the region.

he presence of authoritarian regimes in

he region was supposedly a check to the

rocess of change in countries like Morocco.

egional authoritarianism seemed to

eproach Morocco for progressing too

much. In fact, during Barcelona II, the

Moroccan government showed signs of

alting the process at the refusal of Arab

ountries to further liberalize their regimes.

On the other hand, in US diplomatic cables

evealed by WikiLeaks, didnt toppled

resident Ben Ali express his concern that

slamists could take power in Morocco?

emocratization in Maghreb

o date, there are several possible

utcomes:

The transition to full democracy, although

he current situation rules out this possibility

s the pseudo-reforms are not enough,

ven when accompanied by overblown

media campaigns.

The most plausible outcome are

hort- term reforms whose progressive

ccumulation could cause real change.

Is it possible to turn back and maintain

he status quo? It is difficult to imagine

hat these societies, with the degree of

evelopment achieved by their States and

olitical classes, will allow that to happen.

hese considerations do not entirely rule

ut the possibility of an undemocratic way.

While the regimes will find it difficult to

ontinue without a change of perspective,

he use of repression and control of the

pposition are not likely to completelyisappear.

Given these possibilities, some routes

could be envisaged:

The government could begin to address

the basic needs of the population by, for

example, delaying the removal of subsidiesfor basic necessities and providing various

additiona l subsidies. To this could be added

a general strengthening of the policies of

financial support and even the creation of

jobs for young people.

The government could seek to prevent

social conflicts from escalating into political

conflicts. Controlled democratization

may serve to allay the social demands by

including more people in the political sphere

to share control and alleviate the burdens of

the State. It is equally plausible to adopt a

path that involves concessions and political

alliances. Indeed, these openings may be

necessary to retain power.

In these initial interpretations of the

Tunisian revolution, what conclusions can

be drawn from the late reactions of the

countrys Western allies? Ignoring the plightof these people or, as Nicolas Sarkozy

recently stated, of not having the necessary

sensitivity, reflect Western societies lack of

interest in the reality of their southern allies.

This relates to the manner in which Northern

countries perceive the new issue of the

East, its representations of Islam, and itsmanner of dealing with immigration issues

and national identity. It could be argued

that there is a Western distrust towards the

Arab-Islamic peoples.

However, the Western allies must urgently

review their position. Given the serious

problems of unemployment among young

people and the risks of instability that

this can lead to, they will have to ease

the pressure they have exerted on these

economies to adapt them to the liberal

model and global economy. Therefore, the

probability is that we see the emergence

of policies less focused on economic

conditions and more concerned about the

political sphere.

* Director of Centre des tudes etRecherches en Sciences Sociales

(CERSS), Universit Mohamed V

3Bulletin no. 10


Photo: readingmorocco.blogspot.com


4/9

4Bulletin no. 10

Egypt

Although it is too soon to predict the final results of the

Youth Revolution (25th of January), one can safely make a

reliminary balance:

. There is a need for reconstruction of all security

apparatuses in terms of size, tasks entrusted to it,

and its place within the regime. Hence, the importance

of defining and stabilizing the role of the army in the

future civil State, a) as a protector of the State, its laws

and institutions, and b) free of taking part of rulingthe country a lesson learned based on the fact that

since the 1952 revolution, three presidents were from

the security institution.

. The role of the internal state security service (political

police), which formed the dominant body over the ruling

elites and the centers of power and influence in the

Egyptian society, may collapse. This body (100,000) is

granted power and authority outside the framework of

the law to engage in all kinds of acts of domination andcoercion, and also influence decisions related to the

management of public affairs. Furthermore, it defines

relationships with political parties from the opposition

and civil society organizations, and identifies people

and candidates of the ruling party itself. And despite

recent calls for the cancellation of this body, it is more

likely that its name and role might be reconsidered.

Its role will most likely be limited to management of

collecting general information and presenting it to

the decision-making centers of the State. It may also

include management of a department for the analysis of

options and expected results of policies and government

decisions in a professional and transparent manner,

hence cancelling its role of monitoring citizens lives.

This also applies to Tunisia.

. It is certain that the role of the police, as an essential

tool for law enforcement, would have to be reinforced

in addition to the redefining of the concept and slogan

the police is at the service of the people.

. As it appears, it is difficult to find direct and quick

solutions that aim at reducing the cost of wages to the

large number of employees in the security apparatus.

This needs to be evaluated and documented since the

salaries of police operators are relatively low, which in

turn has contributed to the spread of corruption in their

midst.5. It is important that the security apparatus be subject to

the political authority and be held accountable for its

deeds, especially after electing a true representative

parliamentary body that is fair and transparent; in one

way or another, this applies to Tunisia.

Libya

The security apparatus is known as the competitive

apparatus or militia groups, and it is run by paramilitary

squads loyal to the president; there is no real army

institution. Therefore, given the nature of the struggle, a

national army and a professional police will emerge far

from giving loyalty to the leader or the tribe. This prediction

is conditional upon ending the Qaddafi regime, since his

remaining in power, and fighting the revolutionary, could

lead to the emergence of local militias.

Yemen

The situation is going in the direction of the emergence of acivil State in the South where they will rebuild the security

apparatuses on professional and vocational bases. The

North, however, is a good candidate to entrench the

The Future of Security in the Arab Regiony Azmi Shuaibi*


Photo: US Department of Defense


5/9

5Bulletin no. 10

henomenon of tribal militias. Based on that, it is expected

hat reform of the security apparatus will take place in the

South. Later one, however, if the situation becomes more

uitable, it might be possible to put the issue of SSR on the

genda of the protesters.

Bahrain

t is likely that the security institutions will be strengthened

with some modifications that aim at creating new jobs for

he youth and increase the professional orientation of the

rmy and the police.

The wave of uprising and expression is likely to extend

o include Algeria, Sudan, Morocco, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi

Arabia, Jordan and Iraq, taking into considerat ion that the Gulf

States, Jordan and Morocco will go through constitutional

eforms. It is more likely that they would strengthen the role

f the military and the police professionally at the expensef the political security apparatus.

Saudi Arabia

t is difficult to predict trends there, especially since reform

s achieved through bribing the largest number possible

f protesters with special privileges and other financial

ains. This could include salary raises for employees of the

ecurity institutions along with strengthening the role of the

nternal security apparatus, which will monitor and report

n the lives of the citizens. It may a lso work superficially on

eform within some constitutional institutions such as the

Representative Shura Council.

Syria

It is like a pressure cooker; it can either remain closed for

the time required or explode if given the opportunity. In any

case, the foreseen security leadership will play a role.

Role of the Civil Society

The role of the civil society is a major engine in this

movement in the Arab World. This is especially true for the

media, human rights institutions, good governance and rule

of law institutions, representatives of trade unions and other

professional unions, and youth groups and institutions. New

means of communication further enhanced and facilitated

civil societys role by transforming individual initiatives into

collective action.

Maintaining this movement is of great importance

considering that it is a peaceful popular movement with

collective demands that aim at:

Ensuring a representative political system that

respects human rights and citizens dignity as well as

fundamental freedoms such as the right of assembly

and association, expression etc.

Rejecting any political regime based on the rule of oneindividual, even if it is fair.

Combating corruption and holding all corrupt individuals

accountable.

Ensuring equity and social justice for members of

society.

In conclusion, it is expected that the model of Captured

State will be undermined in the Arab region. The

abovementioned countries certainly have their owncondition that dictates and guides the vision and mission

of its people, reflected by this youth movements. However,

there are many basic needs and aims that these countries

share. They also share peaceful methods to move the

populace. Nevertheless, great caution needs to be taken

in order not to abort this movement through giving it a

tint of specific color as in Bahrain, or geographic as in

Yemen, or place of origin as in Jordan, or ethnic as in Iraq,

or religious as in Sudan.

* Commissioner for Combating Corruption, AMAN

Coalition

hoto: Celme Mathias



6/9

6Bulletin no. 10

In one of the biggest milestones since the onset of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa, the African Union (AU)

Assembly in February 2008 mandated the AU Commission to develop a comprehensive Policy Framework on African

SSR.

This decision was favourably received by the continents SSR community because it promised a break from years of

iecemeal SSR efforts that often yielded mixed results amid concerns over local ownership of the reform agenda.

For its technical partner in the resulting AU SSR Project, the AU Commission has chosen to work with the African Security

Sector Network (ASSN), an indigenous organisation that has emerged as Africas largest and technically best equipped

SSR network.

The two parties signed a Memorandum of Understanding formalizing this partnership in October 2010. As part of this

ollaboration, the ASSN provides office space and equipment for the AU SSR project in Addis Ababa. The network has also

econded one of its foremost experts, Professor Medhane Tadesse, as a Senior Advisor to the African Union, alongside a

Gender and SSR advisor.

The ongoing AU SSR Project provides an opportunity for the ASSN to make its biggest contribution yet to African SSR.

Established in 2003, the ASSN was created to harmonise the then disparate activities of the various African organisations

working in the area of SSR. It has since grown to attain a continental stature, with a membership base of individuals,

xperts and organisations from across Africa. Its collaborative partners today include the African Union, the Economic

Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the UN SSR Unit, Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF),

he Global Consortium for Security Transformation (GCST) and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed

orces (DCAF) among others.

The ASSN is also involved in the African Union mission to South Sudan, which voted earlier this year to become Africas

ewest independent nation and requires substantial assistance in the construction of its security sector. The ASSN Chair,

Professor Eboe Hutchful, is a member of the African Union delegation to South Sudan.

Aside from its work with the African Union, the ASSN is concurrently collaborating with the West African Network on Security

nd Democratic Governance (WANSED) in the development of the Security Sector Governance (SSG) Component of the

ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework.

The network has also embarked on the establishment of its own indigenous roster of African SSR/SSG Experts. Admission

o this roster is stringently benchmarked against UN standards, and the final inductees will be placed at the disposal of

egional organizations, national authorities and security institutions, external partners, and other entities involved in or

ontemplating SSR.

Another significant development is the establishment of an independent secretariat based in Accra, Ghana, entirely staffed

y a team of African professionals. The new secretariat administers the networks activities on a fulltime basis and maintains

lose tandem with the networks Regional Hubs in Addis Ababa, Johannesburg and Nairobi. In terms of organisation, each

ASSN: Championing Local Ownership and SSR Dialogue in Africay Philip Emase*

Developing projecTs


7/9

7Bulletin no. 10

Regional Hub is hosted by the networks main affiliate in the region, currently the Centre for Policy Research and Dialogue

CPRD) in the Horn of Africa, African Security Dialogue and Research (ASDR) in West Africa, Security Research and

nformation Centre (SRIC) in East Africa and the Great Lakes Region, and the Southern African Defence and Security

Management Network (SADSEM) in Southern Africa.

Despite its successes, the network has faced quite a few challenges over the past year. In July 2010, its regional coordinator

or East Africa and the Great Lakes Region, Col Jan Kamenju, lost his life to unknown gunmen in Nairobi, while in the Horn

f Africa, a new NGO law passed by the Ethiopian parliament forced the dissolution of the ASSNs main affiliate in the Horn

f Africa Region, CPRD.

These challenges have nevertheless been taken in stride. The late Kamenjus former deputy, Col Jerry Kitiku, has ably

ucceeded him at the helm of the ASSNs regional operations in East Africa, while CPRD has relocated to Juba, South

Sudan.

Meanwhile, the ASSN has continued working with national legislatures to strengthen their critical role as an important

venue for civilian oversight of the security sector. The network has built a strong record in this area though parliamentary

workshops, executive courses and roundtables that give premium attention to parliamentary select committees for defence,

nterior and security.

Beyond its capacity building focus, the ASSN has also found success in networking beyond its original Anglophone sphere,

most prominently through a series of parliamentary workshops conducted jointly with the OIF in a number of French-

peaking countries. This increased activity in the Francophone and Lusophone parts of Africa has seen a growing number

f high-profile new recruits into the ASSNs membership base, as well as the gradual evolution of an SSR expert network

n an area previously dominated by Anglophones.

The positive response in Francophone and Lusophone Africa has reinvigorated the networks long held aspiration to

xtend its work into North Africa, particularly in light of the recent political revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt and the ongoing

nrest in various other countries in the region. All these unfolding events have implications for SSR/SSG in the region, and

onsequently, the ASSN and its North African partners have begun seeking each other out and matching ideas.

*Information and Communications Officer, African Security S ector Network (ASSN)

Developing projecTs

hoto: Celme Mathias


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8Bulletin no. 10

GCST News

orkshop on Cooperation to Control Non-State Nuclear Proliferation: Extra Territorial Jurisdiction and UN Resolutions 1540 and

373

his workshop, hosted by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and took

ace on April 4-5, explored theoretical options and practical pathways to extend states control over non-state actor nuclear proliferation

rough the use of extra-territorial jurisdiction and international legal cooperation. The workshop brought together a range of experts from the

nited States, Europe, Asia, and Africa to discuss these issues and generate a set of next steps for further research and immediate action by

olicy makers. The GCST was represented by Rodrigo lvarez, who participated in the round-table untitled Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction and

egulation of Non-State Actors. More information at: http://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/

nd of the 3rd Small Grants Initiative

n April 27 the GCST received the research papers from the 24 grantees of the 3rd Small Grants Initiative. These grants were nanced by

e Department for International Development (DFID). During the next months the GCST will revise and publish these papers, which will giventinuity to the New Voices Series. The GCST would like to thank DFID for making this possible and all the grantees for their good work.

vents

egional Workshop on the Montreux Document on Private Military and Security Companies

hilean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, May 12-13, 2011

his workshop, sponsored by the governments of Chile and Switzerland, is being organized by the GCST and the Geneva Centre for the

emocratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) in collaboration with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The event will bring

gether 40 experts from the academic world and ONGs, as well as government ofcials from Latin-American and the Caribbean.

ownload the workshop program from: http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux workshop.pdf

ore information on the Montreux Document on Private Military and Security Companies at: http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/

ontreux background.pdf

raining Courses

hort Course on Strategic Planning for Security and Development

he Centre for Security Sector Management at Craneld University is now accepting applications for the 4-day short course in Strategic

anning for Security and Development which will run in both June 2011 and November. This course addresses a broad range of complex

sues for policymakers and practitioners working in the area of governance, development, national security, stabilisation, security sector

lated issues, and conict analysis. The curriculum provides students with a number of tools, analytical frameworks and methodologies for

ddressing policy development, strategic analysis, options generation, implementation and programming in these areas.

ore information at: http://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdf

news
http://www.securitytransformation.org/rodrigoalvarez.phphttp://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/http://www.securitytransformation.org/recipients3.phphttp://www.securitytransformation.org/gc_publications_2.php?categoria=34http://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20workshop.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eflyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/http://www.ssronline.org/edocs/short_course_eflyer_strategic_planning_jun11.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20background.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/images/Montreux%20workshop.pdfhttp://www.securitytransformation.org/gc_publications_2.php?categoria=34http://www.securitytransformation.org/recipients3.phphttp://nautilus.org/projects/non-state-proliferation/1540-Workshop/http://www.securitytransformation.org/rodrigoalvarez.php


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9Bulletin no. 10

Secretariat:Corporacin Proyectamrica

Director:Lucia Dammert ([email protected])

Executive Manager:

Rodrigo lvarez ([email protected])

Assistants:Ney Fernandes ([email protected])

Cristbal Montt ([email protected])

Goujon, A. & Barakat, B. (2010).

Future Demographic Challenges

In the Arab World. The Emirate

Occasional Papers, (75). Abu Dhabi:

The Emirates Center for Strategic

Studies and Research (ECSSR)

Ottaway M. & Washington, H. (2009).

Getting to Pluralism: Political Actors

in the Arab World. Washington,

DC: Carnegie Endowment for

International Peace

Nimer, M. (2010). American Muslims

and the Obama Administration. Abu

Dhabi: The Emirates Center for Stra-

tegic Studies and Research (ECSSR)

publicATions

The GCST is proud to present its Non-

Proliferation and Disarmament Series.

These publications are the result of a

research grant given to four authors

specialized on nuclear non-proliferation

and disarmament.

Download the papers from our

publications section:


gc_publications_2.php?categoria=35

Los Araucanos 2689,Providencia,Santiago, Chile

[email protected]
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a new opportunity for ssr in arab-muslim countries? by saul mauricio rodriguez

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