a peek around the corner #heavychef
DESCRIPTION
a high level look at the future of bandwidth and connectivity in south africa, cursory looks at some technology trends shaping the world and a brief glance at some macro economic trendsTRANSCRIPT
Why me?Why me?
• Likely because I am not skinny – “don’t trust a skinny chef”
• I work at Internet Solutions, so perhaps I have insight into bandwidth pricing
• I have done a degree in economics and used to work for an investment bank, so perhaps I know stuff about the economy
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
DisclaimerDisclaimer
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
• Well, it already has: Afrihost @ R22 per GB standard, R14 if you are a customer and top up
• Already almost a 70% fall since launch of Seacom
So when the f*!k is bandwidth So when the f*!k is bandwidth prices going to come down?prices going to come down?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
• Yes, by international standards, SA is still over priced
• Problem now: national “backhaul” (fat pipes that can distribute all the connectivity)
• Mobile Operators, Neotel and DFA are laying down lots of fibre
Okay, but it is still high, right?Okay, but it is still high, right?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
14 C
able
s. C
rikey
. 14
Cab
les.
Crik
ey.
Crazy Times
FOURTEEN cables landing on the African continent
New: WACS, ACE, Main One, Glo1, LION and EIG, SEACOM, TEAMS, EASSy, and the
Existing: SAT-3/WASC/SAFE and FLAG
Crazy TimesCrazy Times
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
$6bn in spending (circa R42bn)
Increase capacity from 250Gbps to 1.5Tbps (thanks Seacom) to 10Tbps
Over capacity?
Capital Spigots are FlowingCapital Spigots are Flowing
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Okay Fatty, so what is your prediction?
By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by By mid 2011 prices will have fallen by at least half again.at least half again.
In rand terms, circa R10 per GB per In rand terms, circa R10 per GB per monthmonth
Disclaimer: this is prediction is in my own personal capacity and does not represent IS’s view
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Greater transparencyGreater TransparencyGreater Transparency
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
The pirate party
The demand on networks is nothing short of phenomenalAT&T’s network is broken because of it
VideoVideo
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Mobile ticketing
Why use paper ticketing?
Mobile will increasingly replace the need for printed tickets
Mobile TicketingMobile Ticketing
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Augmented RealityAugmented RealityAugmented Reality
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Media farms
Taking your applications into The Cloud
The Cloud = Internet
Social Media is the paragon example of cloud computing
Cloud ComputingCloud Computing
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
No chance. Still the best system by far.
So what happened?1.Bad frameworks – “rational investor”2.Bad regulation – regulators didn’t take time
to understand “credit derivatives”
No – not bad investment bankers.
The fall of capitalism?The fall of capitalism?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
The rise of behavioural financeThe rise of behavioural finance
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Cold war with Angola?
According to Stratfor, a global think tank, South Africa is at high risk of a cold war with Angola
Logic is that Angola’s oil wealth is now tapped and it is significant
Also, Angola increasingly appears a Chinese proxy
Cold War with Angola?Cold War with Angola?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Reinventing Fire
We know how to save half of our oil and gas and three-quarters of our electricity at a cost that is a fraction of what we are paying now.
Amory LovinsRocky Mountain Institute co-founder, chairman and chief scientist
Reinventing FireReinventing Fire
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
The World Cup
“Grounds for optimism, citing conservative estimates of benefits at about R56bn, that could reach R80bn”
Financial Times
The World CupThe World Cup
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Media farms
Mass production of contentReporting done by botsEditorials will be the only paid for content
Media FarmsMedia Farms
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Scarcity
Overcapacity and abundance has fallen
“With cost of distribution relentlessly driving towards zero, Chris Anderson, has once again identified the next big thing” Schmidt, on Anderson’s book “Free”
ScarcityScarcity
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Food
Cheap food is based on three things: cheap oil, plentiful water and a constant weather pattern.
Even if you don't believe in global warming, the one point that you can't really argue is that the price of oil is going to go up, and the big food chain was built on $30 a barrel of oil not $130
FoodFood
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
“people are increasingly neglecting their voicemails,” explains Streicher
Study by Sprint: people under the age of 30 are 4 times more likely to respond to an SMS within minutes than a voicemail
Over 30, twice as likely
Consumers opting for voice-to-text messages.
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Voicemail is brokenVoicemail is broken
Call Centres vs. Contact CentresCall Centre vs. Contact CentreCall Centre vs. Contact Centre
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
geotagging
“check-in” – earn points – become the “mayor”
geotagginggeotagging
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Better measures than GDP?
France’s “Joie de Vivre” Index
Intended to provide a better Measure of well-being than GDP
More countries looking at other measures of prosperity, such as the Triple Bottom Line (people, profits &planet)
Better measure than GDP?Better measure than GDP?
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
The pirate party
Challenging “groupthink” on copyright laws
Believe copyright impinges on culture
Parties in 28 countries around the world
The Pirate PartyThe Pirate Party
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Emerging Economies
“Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging economies will account for 70 - 75% of the growth in global output ‘for the foreseeable future”
New York Times
Emerging EconomiesEmerging Economies
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Emerging Economies
“China’s growth as an economic superpower is increasingly correlated with that of Africa, on which it now relies for 25% of its oil imports, reports the”
Financial Mail
Emerging EconomiesEmerging Economies
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Communications tools don't get socially interesting until they get technologically boring
Clay Shirky, “Here Comes Everybody”
justin spratt – heavy chef – 2nd of February
Questions
Thanks@justinspratt