A Populist Zeitgeist in Western Europe?

Matthijs RooduijnUniversity of Amsterdam

A Populist Zeitgeist

Main expectations

Conceptualizing populism

People’s Party (US)

Conceptualizing populism

Ross Perot (US)

Conceptualizing populism

Juan Perón (Argentina)

Conceptualizing populism

Hugo Chávez (Venezuela)

Conceptualizing populism

Front National (France)

Conceptualizing populism

Silvio Berlusconi (Italy)

Conceptualizing populism• Lowest common denominator:– People-centrism– Homogeneity of the people– Anti-elitism– Proclamation of a crisis

• Mudde’s (2004) definition:– “ideology that considers society to be ultimately

separated into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups, ‘the pure people’ versus ‘the corrupt elite’”

Conceptualizing populism

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Research design Part 1

• Case selection: FR, GE, IT, NL, UK• Mainstream parties and populist parties• Time frame: 1988-2008• Populisme as a scale• Content analysis of election manifestos – 2 methods: classical & computerized

• Validity and reliability

Measuring populism

• Quantitative content analysis– Advantages• Systematic• Transparent• Longitudinal research relatively easy

– Disadvantages• Coders always interpret• Latent content (e.g. cynicism)• Inflexible

Measuring populism

• Classical content analysis manifestos• Paragraphs• People-centrism– Do the authors of the manifesto refer to the people?

• Anti-elitism– Do the authors of the manifesto criticize elites?

• People-centrism + anti-elitism = populism• Populism score = % populist paragraphs

Measuring populism

People-centrismThe authors can refer to ‘the people’ directly by means of terms such as ‘the people’, ‘the citizens’, ‘the British’, ‘Britain’, ‘the community’, ‘the society’, etc. They can also refer to ‘the people’ more indirectly. This is the case if they use terms such as ‘our nation’, ‘public opinion’, ‘the electorate’, ‘our culture’, ‘we’, etc. They also refer to the people if they propose to introduce a measure that implies that emphasize the importance of the people. Examples are the proposition to introduce more participatory democracy or a strong emphasis on integration.

Measuring populism

Anti-elitismElites are not individual persons. Criticisms regarding for example a prime minister or a businessman are usually not anti-elitist. Only if these individuals are portrayed as representatives of a certain elite these criticisms should be seen as anti-elitist. Criticisms regarding a specific government, political party, company, medium or organization is usually not anti-elitist. It is only anti-elitist if it concerns an elite in general, or if a specific government, political party, company, medium or organization is clearly portrayed as a representative of an elite in general.

Measuring populism

• Coders• Codebook • Training sessions• Take-home excercises• Reliability test 1 • New codebook, new training sessions, new

exercises, new reliability test • Reliability test 2

Measuring populism

Example 1The biggest political problem is that politicians try to escape the real social problems we face. Moreover, the established political order governs our country in a nontransparent way. The same is true for politicians in Brussels: the problems and interests of Dutch citizens are systematically ignored. The corruption in the European Union has increased dramatically.

Measuring populism

Example 2We support the immediate introduction of referenda on the national level. We think that the powers of central political officials, such as the mayor, should be extended. The will of Dutch citizens should be the point of departure for political decision-making again!

Measuring populism

Example 3We are the only party that really wants to do something about the most pressing political problems. In order to cope with these problems, the political system and the attitudes of politicians must change dramatically!

Measuring populism

• Computerized content analysis– Dictionary, no coders– Words– Only anti-elitism– Words like:• Elit*, consensus*, undemocratic*, corrupt*,

propagand*, politici*, *deceit*, *deceiv*, *betray*, shame*, scandal*, truth*, dishonest*, establishm*, ruling*

Content validity

• Classical content analysis:– People-centrism + Anti-elitism

• Computerized content analysis– Anti-elitism

Face validity

Face validity

Concurrent validity

Impact on parties

• H1: the programs of mainstream parties in Western Europe have become more populist since the late 1980s

Impact on parties

Impact on parties

• H1: the programs of mainstream parties in Western Europe have become more populist since the late 1980s

• H2: the greater the electoral losses of a mainstream party, the more populist the programs of this party become

• H3: the more successful allegedly populist parties, the more populist the programs of mainstream parties become

Impact on parties

Research design Part 2

• Case selection: FR, GE, IT, NL, UK• Time frame: 1988-2008• Populisme as a scale• Content analysis of opinion articles – 2 elite newspapers, 1 tabloid per country– 4 weeks before general election– Opinion of author of article– Different kinds of article

Impact on media

• H1: Public debates in the media have become more populist in the last two decades

Impact on media

Impact on media

• H1: Public debates in the media have become more populist in the last two decades

• H2: The electoral success of allegedly populist parties positively affects the degree of populism in public debates in the media

Impact on media

Impact on media

• H1: Public debates in the media have become more populist in the last two decades

• H2: The electoral success of allegedly populist parties positively affects the degree of populism in public debates in the media

• H3: The public debates in tabloid media are more populist than in elite media

Impact on media

Impact on media

• H1: Public debates in the media have become more populist in the last two decades

• H2: The electoral success of allegedly populist parties positively affects the degree of populism in public debates in the media

• H3: The public debates in tabloid media are more populist than in elite media

• H4: Letters are more populist than other opinion articles

Impact on media

Research design Part 3

• Case selection: NL• Time frame: 2008-2013• Populisme as a scale• Content analysis of election manifestos • LISS: political discontent & vote choice

Impact on public opinion

• Expressing discontent logic– Political dissatisfaction vote choice

• Fuelling discontent logic– Vote choice political dissatisfaction

Impact on public opinion

Impact on public opinion

Impact on public opinion

Populism: a large impact

• Electoral success populists• Established parties employ populism• Political discontent among the public• Media have become more populist

Populism: not omnipresent

• Established parties not more populist• After electoral success populist parties less

populist• Political discontent among the public did not

increase • Populism in media with ups and downs

Populism and democracy• Liberal democracy– Democratic pillar– Liberal pillar

• Political representation• Checks and balances• Minority rights

• Populism & democratic pillar:• Populism & liberal pillar:• No populist Zeitgeist• Strong liberal institutions

The near future

• Populism is here to stay– European integration– Bankers and bonuses– Cartel formation

• Thank you!