a presentation to the connecticut business and industry association michael goodman, ph.d. director...
TRANSCRIPT
A Presentation to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association
Michael Goodman, Ph.D.
Director of Economic and Public Policy Research
UMass Donahue Institute
Managing Editor, Massachusetts Benchmarks
May 14, 2004
Economic Outlook for Massachusetts in 2004
The State Economy is Finally Growing Again
Source: Massachusetts Benchmarks, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth in Real Product, Massachusetts Current Economic Index vs. U.S. GDP
4.74.3
3.2
1.9
-0.4
-2.0
-2.8 -2.9
-1.6
-0.4 -0.6 -0.4
-1.5
-0.6
1.0
1.8
1.0
6.4
-0.5
2.1
-0.2-0.6
-1.3
2.0
4.7
1.9
3.4
1.3
2.0
3.1
8.2
4.1
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
00Q1 00Q2 00Q3 00Q4 01Q1 01Q2 01Q3 01Q4 02Q1 02Q2 02Q3 02Q4 03Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q4
Qu
arte
rly
Gro
wth
at
An
nu
al R
ates
MA US
Business Investment is Back
Demand for the equipment developed by the Commonwealth’s leading industries
is growing robustly
Exports are up significantly
Global demand for Massachusetts’ electronics, medical devices, and pharmaceutical products is rising
Long Term Unemployment Remains a Significant Concern
Statewide Employment Outlook: Job growth will be modest and not likely in the same sectors that
experienced job losses (many of these job loses will be permanent)
Employment (in 000s)
2003 2004 2005 Net Change from 2003
Share of Net Increase
Total 3214.7 3,248.0 3,305.1 98.0 100%
Construction 133.1 135.2 134.4 -0.6 -0.6%
Manufacturing 333.7 333.0 334.1 0.4 0.4%
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
579.3 578.4 588.1 16.0 16.3%
Information 95.0 98.0 100.0 3.6 3.7%
Financial Activities
229.5 230.4 234.3 5.7 5.8%
Prof. & Bus. Services
438.7 449.9 468.7 30.7 31.3%
Education. & Health Services
574.2 585.5 600.6 28.2 28.7%
Leisure & Hospitality
286.9 292.3 298.7 11.7 11.9%
Other Services 118.0 119.5 121.0 2.6 2.6%
Government 424.8 424.0 423.7 -0.2 -0.2%
Source: New England Economic Project
The Commonwealth is losing the national competition for skilled workers
• Since 1990, we have lost over 213,000 more residents than we have gained from the other U.S. states.
• Net losses were experienced even during the economic boom years of the 1990s.
Migrants are younger, better educated, and less likely to have been born in Massachusetts
• Bay State’s central competitive advantage: high quality workforce
• An aging population and very slow-growing labor force (4th lowest rate in the nation during the 1990s)
• Availability of highly educated workers essential to fueling our economic recovery and the state’s future prosperity
• Younger, highly-educated workers and their families choosing to leave the state erodes competitiveness
What does this mean for Massachusetts?
For More Information
For timely and
comprehensive analysis of
the Massachusetts economy, please visit
Massachusetts Benchmarks at:
www.massbenchmarks.org