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UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering Valentina Marincioni | Research Engineer A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for internally insulated solid walls UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

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Page 1: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Valentina Marincioni | Research Engineer

A probabilistic approach to moisture

risk assessment for internally

insulated solid walls

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Page 2: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Why do we insulate?

Page 3: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Page 4: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Why moisture risk assessment?

Page 5: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Why moisture risk assessment?

Page 6: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Why moisture risk assessment?

Page 7: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Water exists…

Page 8: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

VAPOUR DIFFUSION

CAPILLARY FLOW

GRAVITY

LIQUID DIFFUSION

SOLAR - DRIVEN

VAPOUR DIFFUSION

MOIST AIR FLOW

Page 9: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

What are the available tools?

Page 10: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

• Glaser BS EN ISO 13788

• HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026

Limitations:

• 1D (no thermal bridges)

• do not include all moisture mechanisms

• Deterministic

Available software for deterministic HAMT:

WUFI® Pro Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics

WUFI® 2D Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics

DELPHIN TU Dresden

What are the available tools?

Page 11: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Hygrothermal properties

of building materials

Atmospheric

moisture loads

Internal

moisture loads

Moisture response

Probabilistic risk assessment

Page 12: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Probabilistic risk assessment

Monte-Carlo

simulations

Predictive

meta-modelling

Sampling

Propagation - HAMT

Mould growth risk

assessmentFailure criteria

Mould growth models • Building mycology

• Space-filling techniques

• Functions parametrisation

• Semi-parametric vs non-parametric

models

• Trade-off between prediction,

interpretation and flexibility

Key challenges

Page 13: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Future research

TOOLS FOR

• Risk assessment

• Design process

• Construction process

EVIDENCE

• Policy making

• Faulty practices

Page 14: A probabilistic approach to moisture risk assessment for … · 2017. 11. 1. · • Glaser BS EN ISO 13788 • HAMT (WUFI …) BS EN 15026 Limitations: • 1D (no thermal bridges)

UCL Institute for Environmental Design & Engineering

Valentina Marincioni | Research Engineer | [email protected]


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