a process to develop operational bottom-up evaluation
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A process to develop operational bottom-up evaluationmethods – from reference guidebooks to a practical
culture of evaluationJean-Sébastien Broc, Bernard Bourges, Jérôme Adnot
To cite this version:Jean-Sébastien Broc, Bernard Bourges, Jérôme Adnot. A process to develop operational bottom-upevaluation methods – from reference guidebooks to a practical culture of evaluation. Saving energy –just do it!, Jun 2007, La Colle sur Loup, France. pp. 659-670. �hal-00505786�
ECEEE 2007 SUMMER STUDY • SAVING ENERGY – JUST DO IT! 659
4,105 Aprocesstodevelopoperationalbottom-upevaluationmethods–fromreferenceguidebookstoapracticalcultureofevaluation4,105Brocetal
A process to develop operational bottom-up evaluation methods – from reference guidebooks to a practical culture of evaluationJean-Sébastien BROCEcole des Mines de Nantes (DSEE)[email protected]
Bernard BOURGESEcole des Mines de Nantes (DSEE)[email protected]
Jérôme ADNOTEcole des Mines de Paris (Centre of Energy and Processes)[email protected]
Keywordsevaluationmethodology,bottom-upmethod,impactevalua-tion,theory-basedevaluation,EnergyServicesDirective,ex-periencecapitalisation,evaluationcapacitybuilding
AbstractNeedsforevaluatingenergyefficiency(EE)activitiesare in-creasing,fortheaccountingofresultsandforunderstandingtheirsuccess/failures.Indeedevaluationresultsshouldbeusedforbothreportingpastactivitiesandimprovingfutureopera-tions.Lackofeasytousemethodsispointedoutbylocalstake-holdersasamajorbarriertoevaluation.Anotherissueisthefrequentnegativeperceptionofevaluation,experiencedasacontroland/orawasteoftime.
Thispaperpresentsasystematicprocesstodevelopbottom-upevaluationmethodsdesignedtofittostakeholdersneeds:directlyoperational,easytoappropriate,providingusefulcon-clusionstoimproveoperationsandtocommunicateabouttheirresults.
Ourapproachreliesontheprincipleofexperiencecapitali-sationandonanorganisationwithtwolevels,centralandon-field.Itaimstocreateconditionsforcontinuousimprovement.Moreover it should insure involvedstakeholdersdoactuallytakepartinandtakeadvantageoftheevaluationprocess.
Thismethodologyhandlesbothimpactandprocessevalu-ation.Fortheimpacts,focusisoncalculationstransparency,dataqualityandreliabilityoftheresults.Regardingoperationprocess,main issuesareanalysingcausalitybetweenactionsandresults,anddetectingthesuccessandfailurefactors.
Thisworkwasfirstdevelopedfortheevaluationoflocalop-erationsinFrance1.Theresultingmethodologywastestedontwocase studies from theEcoEnergyPlan, a localEEpro-grammeimplementedinSouth-EastofFrance.
IntroductionTheusefulnessofevaluationmaybeexpressedthroughitstwodimensions,summative(whataretheresults)andformative(howtoimproveand/orinsuresuccessandcost-effectivenessofoperations)[EuropeanCommission1999].Intheparticularfieldofenergyefficiency(EE)activities,referenceguidebooksastheEuropean[SRCI2001pp.8-10]ortheIEA[Vreuls2005pp.4,8-10]oneshighlightneedsandreasonsforevaluatingEEprogrammes:quantifyingandreportingresultsinaregulatoryframework,improvingcost-effectiveness,insuringbestuseofpublicfunds,etc.Theyalsoemphasisenumerousframeworkswhichincreasetheneedforevaluation,astheKyotoProtocolortheEUDirectiveonEnergyEnd-useandEnergyServices[ESD2006].
Suchevaluationneedsalsoappearatamorelocalscale.In-deed,localEEactivitiesaregrowing,asnationalgovernmentsrequirelocalauthoritiestoinvolvethemselvesinlocalEEpoli-ciesandaslocalauthoritiesdevelopaswelltheirowninitia-tives.ThiswasconfirmedbyaninventoryoflocalEEactivitiesinFrance,whichstressedalackofevaluationpracticefortheseactivities[Broc2005].Contactswithstakeholdersduringthisinventorybroughtoutthatoneofthemainreasonsevaluations
1. within a partnership between ARMINES, the Wuppertal Institute for Climate Environment and Energy, and EDF R&D (Electricité de France)
Broc,Jean-SébastienBourges,Bernard
Adnot,Jérôme
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werenotperformedwasthattheydidnotdisposeofopera-tionalevaluationmethodstheycouldeasilyapply.
Thispaperpresentsamethodologysetuptodevelopsuchmethodsforex-postevaluations.First,specificationswerede-ducedfromanalysingneedsandexpectationsofthestakehold-erstowardevaluation.Methodologyprinciplesandstructureswere then drawn to tackle these issues. Besides, a literaturereviewandcasestudieswereperformedtoproviderequiredmethodologicalmaterials.Waystoaddresskeyissuesaresub-sequentlydetailedaboutthequantificationofimpactsandtheanalysisofprogrammetheory.Theresultingsystematicprocesstodevelopoperationalevaluationmethodsisdescribed,andways to involve stakeholders in evaluation process are dis-cussed.Finally,examplesofapplicationonconcretecasesarebrieflyintroduced,aswellasperspectivesofadaptationofthismethodologytoevaluationrequirementsfortheimplementa-tionofESD.
Definingspecificationsforevaluationmethodsatlocallevel
WhAtDoloCAlstAKeholDersexpeCt/neeDAboutevAluAtIon?Apreviouspaper[Broc2005]presentedtheresultsfromanin-ventoryoflocalEEactivitiesinFrance.Duringthisinventory,manylocalstakeholderswerecontactedandaskedabouttheir
evaluationpracticeandneeds.Mainexpectationswere thendeducedfromtheiranswers[Broc2006app.122-123]2,3,4.
ADvAntAgesAnDDrAWbACKsoftheloCAlDImensIonImplementinganoperationatalocalscalecangivebothad-vantagesordrawbacksspecifictothelocaldimension.Thesearepresentedinthetablebelow.
AdvantagesofimplementingoperationsatalocalscaleSpecificadvantagesoflocaldimensionmaybegroupedinthreemainlines:
nearness:
localstakeholdersareclosertothetargetedpublics,andparticularlyefficienttoreachscatteredtargets
localstakeholdersformnetworkswithsignificantabilityofmobilisation
localstakeholdershaveabetterknowledgeoflocalspe-cificities(e.g.priorityneeds,specialbarriers)
2. These conclusions are also confirmed by other studies about involvement of local stakeholders in local energy policies in France [AGORA 2002, Godinot 2004, Bouvier 2005, Trouslot 1995].
3. justifying usefulness and cost-effectiveness of implemented operations: either for contractual requirements, as the CPER (Contrat de Plan Etat-Région), a six-year agreement framework between French State and Regional Councils, or to-wards ratepayers
4. dissemination of the results: presenting evaluation work and results in a peda-gogic way, in order to contribute to train local stakeholders to new issues they have to address
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summative dimension of evaluation formative dimension of evaluationm
ain
eva
lua
tio
no
bje
ctiv
es
- quantifying final results (energy savings, avoided emissions
or load reduction)
- feeding clear, synthetic and well-documented indicators
(for decision making, for communication and for
benchmarking)
- justifying usefulness and cost-effectiveness of implemented
operations, and pointing out local initiatives and/or
contributions to national bodies
- detecting success factors, to improve and support
easier reproduction of operations
- providing experience feedback documented enough for
experience sharing and capitalisation
- providing elements for critical analysis of results,
especially to better understand and interpret indicators
- dissemination of the results
- developing local skills to rebalance tests of strength
between national and local bodies, and enabling a better
transparency for debates
resu
lta
nt
exp
ect
ati
on
s
- quality of data used, as it is the first factor affecting reliability
and therefore usefulness of evaluation results
- transparency of the evaluation methods used: good
understanding and interpretation of reported results, results
discussion and checking, and comparisons with other
operations
- credibility of reported results, in order to insure recognition
of local initiatives by national bodies
- to show and explain to decision-makers (and also to the
final public targeted) successful experiences, in order to
convince and to familiarise them to these new
approaches
- to involve stakeholders in evaluation process: for
decision making, and for both a stronger involvement of
local stakeholders in EE activities (from passive to
active strategies), and a change of scale (from pilot
operations to widespread diffusion of best practices)
table1.evaluationobjectivesandexpectations
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flexibility:
localinitiativescanadapttolocalcontextsandtakead-vantageofgoodawarenessoffieldconditions
localframesletmorefreedomtoimplementactions,andthereforefavournewideasandwaystoact
locallevelismoreoperational:operationscanbestartedfaster(e.g.decisionmakingprocess isshorter,smallerbudgetsareeasiertoallocate)
anchoring and integratingdifferentpoliciesonagiventer-ritory:
whenthetargetterritoryiswelldefined,itmakeseasiercross-sectoralandglobal5approaches
targeting a given territory may enable economies ofscope
Moreover, interactions between stakeholders at local level6maybeprescriptivebothinapositiveornegativeway,result-ingeitherinsynergiesorinadditionalbarriers.
DrawbacksofimplementingoperationsatalocalscaleMaindrawbacksoflocaldimensionare:
unbalancedpositionsfornegotiationsbetweenlocalandna-tional(orinternational)bodies(e.g.negotiationsbetweenalocalauthorityandsupermarketdistribution)
smalleropportunitiesforeconomiesofscaleincomparisontonationaloperations
smallerfinancialmeansavailable(incomparisontonationaloperations)
5. global means here integrating different public policies: e.g. activities for a given neighbourhood considering both housing and transportation issues
6. for France, these interactions concerning local energy policies have been well analysed by Bouvier [2005]
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speCIfICItIesofevAluAtIonAtloCAllevelEvaluatinglocalEEactivitieshastotakeaccountoftheirlo-caldimensionasexpressedabove.But italso includesotherspecificities
methodologystructureandprinciplesSpecificationsdescribedintheabovesectionenabletodrawthestructureandprinciplesforourevaluationmethodology.
generAlstruCturebAseDonmAInevAluAtIonobjeCtIvesAnDfIelDsAnalysing the inventory of French local EE activities [Broc2005]highlightedconcreteneedsintermsofex-postevalua-tion(seeTable 1).Theseneedscanbetranscribedinconcreteevaluation objectives�:
understandingoperationprocesstobringoutsuccessfac-tors
performingacritical analysisoftheoperationanditsre-sults,especiallycomparisonstoglobalobjectivesthisopera-tioncontributestoandtoothersimilaroperations
makingresultsreliable and visible,especiallytowardspart-nersandfinalpublicstargeted
quantifyingfinalresultsintermsofloadreductions,energysavingsandavoidedemissions
definingcost-effectivenessoffinalresults(e.g.intermsofc€/savedkWh)
Ourmethodologyisthendesignedtoanswertotheseobjec-tivesthroughasystematicapproachstructuredinthreemainevaluationfields:
7. Another significant evaluation objective may be to assess the sum of final results of several local operations and to compare it with the evolution of global indica-tors (crossing bottom-up and top-down approaches). This is out of the scope of this paper.
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4,105 BROC ET Al
methodological
specificities
- evaluation may be a “counterpart to decentralisation and devolution of jurisdiction” [Trouslot 1995 p.535]
- local operations are very diverse, and evaluation methods have to be adjustable to these differences
- local operations often involve partnerships between various stakeholders: this complicates their monitoring
and requires evaluation methods to enable to take account of each point of view, and to fit to different
needs and skills
- evaluation has often to be managed on two levels:
- on-field level: providing synthetic results and feedback to operation managers and partners
- central level: reporting activities to supervision bodies and centralising experiences
- evaluation has to be integrated in the operation process itself:
- to strengthen mobilisation of targeted final publics (e.g. communication about gained results is a good
mean for raising awareness)
- to strengthen involvement of partners and other local stakeholders
technical
specificities
- lack of practical culture and skills of evaluation
- lack of reference data specific to a given territory (most of reference data are only available at national
level) and difficulties to assess consistency between local and national data
- financial and human means available for evaluation are often limited
table2.specificitiesofevaluationatlocallevel
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mAInprInCIplesofourmethoDologyTofittostakeholdersneeds,ourmethodologyisalsobasedonthreemainprinciples.
Sofar,experiencefeedbackhasbeenusedtoformbest prac-tices guidebooks or databases8. However, the inventory ofFrenchlocalEEactivitiesbroughtoutthatsuchguidebooksordatabasescoveredonlyaverylittleportionofwhatisactuallydone[Broc2005].Indeed,thisformofexperiencecapitalisa-tionisinformal,mainlybasedonaface-to-face transmissionamonginsiderscircles.Descriptionsmadeofbestpracticesdonotgointodetails,astheyaremadetoraisereader’sinteresttocontactpersonswhomanagedtheexperiencespresented.
Thiswayofdisseminatingbestpracticesislimited,especiallybecausecorrespondentcontactshaveoftenalimited availa-bility,whichlimitsdisseminationofbestpractices.Likewise,thesecontactshavealsoskills in a particular fieldbutnotinallissues,whichdonotfavourcross-cuttingapproaches.Moreo-
8. Such best practices guidebooks and database are for instance built by Energie-Cités, most often with support of ADEME (French Agency for Energy Management and Environment) and European Commission. Energie-Cités’ database is available at: www.energie-cites.eu (section “Resources” then “Best Practices”).
ver,thememoryofexperiencefeedbackandknow-howmaybelostwhencorrespondentcontactsleave.
Rakoto[Rakoto2002,Rakoto2004]alsonoticedtheseis-suesstudyinghowexperience feedbackwasused incompa-nies.Hesuggestedrationalisingthisprocessusingknowledgemanagementsystems.Ourmethodologyaimstobeawaytoinitiatesuchasystematicprocess,appliedtothefieldoflocalEEactivities.
Figure 1describeshowitproposes to initiateaprocessofexperiencecapitalisation.
4,105 BROC ET Al
1) operation theory analysis:
- analysis of operation design and progress
- confrontation final results / initial objectives
- assessment of intermediate outputs and outcomes
- involvement of partners
- review of communication plan and its impacts
- evaluation of market transformation (when required)
- analysis of point of view differences among partners
- comparison with other similar operations
2) evaluation of final results:
- energy savings
- load reductions
- avoided GHG emissions
3) economic assessment:
- assessment of cost-effectiveness
indicators (e.g. c€/ saved kWh)
- costs/benefits analysis (according
to stakeholders points of view)
table3.threemainevaluationfieldsforasystematicapproach
table4.mainprinciplesofourmethodology
Principles Explanations
1) evaluation methods have
to be operational and easy
to appropriate for all
stakeholders involved, and
to enable a progressive
training to evaluation
- a unique methodology is designed to develop several methods: general evaluation
objectives are common to all local EE activities and evaluations should be consistent with each
other and easy to reproduce ; but differences between operations require to adjust methods
according to certain criteria such as targeted end-uses or policy instruments
- evaluation methods have to be based on techniques for data collection and analysis which are
already experienced
- evaluation methods are designed similarly to software:
- an interface gathers in a constant structured way all required information related to the
operation and its results
- two modules (one for analysing operation theory, the other for calculating results and cost-
effectiveness indicators) provide calculation models and/or frameworks to perform evaluation
and obtain conclusions and results from input data in order to feed the interface
- tutorials provide additional advice to use evaluation modules and interface, from basic use
(requiring as few input data and analysis as possible) to expert use (requiring additional input
data and analysis)
2) evaluation methods have
to insure data quality and
results transparency:
- a systematic monitoring of evaluation provides the required information for quality indicators
about data and evaluation techniques used (this is based on the Quality Assurance Guidelines
approach developed by Vine [Vine 1999a pp.50-52])
- advice are provided to perform uncertainties assessment, from qualitative (order of magnitude)
to quantitative (statistical confidence intervals)
3) evaluation methods have to support a progressive process of experience capitalisation (see details below)
Starting point
Proposin g improvements :
• for designing and managing
operations
• for evaluation methods
Evaluating
operations
Implementing
operations
Analysis of available existing
experience feedback
Figure 1. Progressive process for experience capitalisation.
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settIngupAnevAluAtIonsystemontWolevelsOneofthekeyfactorsforexperiencecapitalisationisopera-tionmanagersbeingtheheartoftheprocess.However,fortheparticularfieldoflocalEEactivities,theseoperationmanagersmaybenumerousandscattered.Thereisthereforeaneedtocentraliseinformation.That’swhyourmethodologyistosetupanevaluationsystemontwolevels(seeFigure 2).
On-field evaluationisperformedby(orundersupervisionof)operationmanagers.Theyarenotevaluationexpertsandmoreovergetoftenonlylittletimetodevotetothis.Theireval-uationtoolsshallthereforebeeasytoappropriateandtoapply.Butthesetoolsshallalsoproposefurtherguidelinestoenablegoingdeeperintoevaluationwhenoperationmanagerswishso,especiallyinanapproachofcontinuousimprovement.
Theobjectivesofcentralising evaluationsare:
togatherinformationinordertomakethemavailableforboth,decision-makersandoperationmanagers
toreviewinformationinordertoinsureevaluationsarereli-ableandcanbecomparedwitheachother
toupdateevaluationmethods,referencedataandbestprac-ticesguidebooks(forimplementingoperations)
Thiscentralisationmaybeperformedeitherwithinanationalbody(e.g.nationalagency,energysuppliers),orforagiventer-ritory(e.g.atregionalscale,byaregionalenergyobservatory/agency).Guidelinesforcentralisationaremeantforevaluationexperts,andare toregister information inasystematicway,inordertoprovidestructuredanddetailedexperiencefeed-back.Theseguidelinesarealsotobeusedtocompleteon-fieldevaluations,whenthecentralevaluationservicedecidesitisrelevant.
In parallel, a standard form was designed to collect insystematicwayinformationaboutlocaloperationsandtheir
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evaluations.Thisformprovidesaframetosummarizethisin-formation.Eachdataholdingkeyinformationismarkedwithagivencode(e.g.A-1).Thesemarksarecommonforalltoolsofanevaluationmethod(e.g.thestandardform,calculationguidelines,etc.),sothateachinformationcanbeeasilylocatedinanytool.Itcouldalsobeusedafterwardstobuildaninfor-mationsystem.
settingupanevaluationmethodologyThissectionpresentsthemaincomponentsofourmethodol-ogy,firstitsmethodologicalbackground,andthenthekeyis-suesaddressedbothforimpactsquantificationandfortheory-basedevaluation.
methoDologICAlmAterIAlsuseDSelectionofmainbibliographicreferenceswasbasedonthreecriteria:
recognition and/or usebyinternationalornationalinsti-tutionsand/orbyenergyefficiencyprofessionals(utilities,ESCo,regulatoryorotherpublicbodies)
up-to-date contents(basedoncurrentstate-of-artand/orrecentexperiences)
wide methodological scope(coveringmostofmainevalu-ationissues)
Otherbibliographicinputshavebeenused,especiallyforspe-cificevaluationissues(e.g.[Vine1992]forpersistenceofsav-ings).Butthefollowingreferencesprovidedthebasicmaterialforourmethodology.9
9. the IEA DSM Programme: International Energy Agency Demand-Side Manage-ment Programme, see http://dsm.iea.org
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EV
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PU
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EV
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Common
evaluation
methodology
Concrete
methods
Programmes-specific
required data
Databases of reference
values
Other available data
on-field level
central level
Best practices
experience
feedback
evaluation
reports
defines and keeps
up-to-date
defines and keeps
up-to-date
centralises and
reviews
centralises and
diffuses
completes
and reports
provides
and uses
applies collects and
provides
uses as
inputs
Figure 2. Evaluation system on two levels
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Reference Contents
International
Performance
Measurement and
Verification Protocol
[IPMVP 2002]
Prepared for the US Department of Energy (DoE), IPMVP stands as an international reference for M&V
(Measurement and Verification) of energy savings. A summary of IPMVP can be found in [Appendix B of
SRCI 2001 pp.B50-B53]. Main inputs from IPVMP are:
- 4 M&V options to quantify gross energy savings
- description of measurement techniques and issues
Guidelines for the
Monitoring,
Evaluation, Reporting,
Verification, and
Certification of
energy-efficiency
projects for climate
change mitigation
[Vine 1999a]
Prepared for the US Environmental Protection Agency and US DoE, the MERVC guidelines were
developed to evaluate CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) and JI (Joint Implementation) projects
within Kyoto protocol framework. A summary can be found in [Vine 1999b]. Main inputs from MERVC
guidelines are:
- global approach from ex-ante registration to ex-post verification
- methodological approach to evaluate net energy savings (estimating gross results, then a baseline, and
finally net results)
- guidelines to estimate ex-ante an initial baseline (through performance benchmarks), and then to re-
estimate it ex-post (through surveys, discrete choice or regression models), in order to better capture
free-rider effect
- quality assurance guidelines, to insure quality of performed evaluations and thus reliability of results
- reporting forms
A European ex-post
evaluation guidebook
for DSM and EE
service programmes
[SRCI 2001]
Prepared for the European Commission within a SAVE project, the European guidebook stands as an
international reference for evaluation preparation and planning. A summary of its approach can be found
in [Birr-Pedersen 2001]. Main inputs from the European guidebook are:
- guidelines for evaluation planning
- synthetic description of the basic concepts related to the evaluation of EE programmes (especially net-
to-gross adjustment factors)
- description of the main techniques for data collection and energy savings calculation
California Energy
Efficiency Protocols
and Evaluation
Framework
[TecMarket Works
2004, TecMarket Works
2006]
Prepared for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), both manuals provide detailed guidelines
for energy efficiency programmes evaluation to the evaluation experts and programme managers in
charge of it. The Californian Evaluation Framework covers all evaluation issues, forming a very complete
state of the art of evaluation practices in United States. The protocols present official requirements and
recommended process for evaluation of EE programmes under CPUC regulation. Main inputs from
Californian manuals:
- systematic approach of evaluation work, divided in main issues: M&V and impact evaluation, process
evaluation, market transformation evaluation, uncertainty, sampling, cost-effectiveness
- detailed review of all evaluation key issues (with a significant bibliography)
- detailed requirements and organisation of an evaluation scheme in a given regulatory framework
Evaluation guidebook
for evaluating energy
efficiency policy
measures & DSM
programmes [Vreuls
2005]
Prepared within task I of IEA DSM Programme, the objective of the IEA guidebook is “to provide practical
assistance to administrators, researchers, and policy makers who need to plan assessments and to
evaluators who carry out evaluations of energy efficiency programmes”, especially programmes related to
Kyoto greenhouse gas targets. Main inputs from IEA guidebook:
- a methodological approach based on seven key elements: statement of policy measure theory,
specification of indicators, development of baselines for indicators, assessment of output and outcome,
assessment of energy savings, calculations of cost-effectiveness, and choice of level with regard to the
evaluation effort
- application of this framework to four main types of EE programmes (regulation, information, economic
incentives, voluntary agreements) and to combinations of these types
- detailed and standardised description of main evaluation experiences of eight countries (Belgium,
Canada, Denmark, France, Italy, Republic of Korea, The Netherlands, Sweden)
Evaluation and
comparison of utility's
and governmental
DSM-programmes for
the promotion of
condensing boilers
[Haug 1998]
Contrary to previous references, this SAVE project is not general but specific to a particular energy
efficient solution (condensing boilers). It was selected because it presents a well-detailed evaluation
approach and because it represents an example of specific material to be used developing a specific
method. Main inputs from this particular evaluation are:
- a concrete and detailed evaluation framework, especially to study factors influencing the success of a
programme
- significant material about market transformation issues, which can be used for other cases of promotion
of efficient appliances
- significant technical material useful for developing method for other energy efficiency programmes
related to heating
table5.mainreferencesusedtobuildourmethodology.
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KeyIssuesforImpACtsquAntIfICAtIon
makingitclearwhataregrossandnetresultsGross resultsaretheresultsgainedfromthepoint of view of final end-users.Theseresultscorrespondtothechangesbe-tweenthesituationsbeforeandaftertakingpartinanEEpro-gramme.Situationbeforemaybeeithertheenergyconsump-tionintheperiodprecedingtheprogramme,orthechangeswhichwouldhaveoccurredinabsenceoftheprogramme(e.g.buyingapresentstandardequipmentinsteadofapresentef-ficientone).Definingsuchabeforesituationmeanschoosing a baseline.Besides,beforeandaftersituationshavetobecom-paredinsimilarconditions(e.g.similarweatherconditions).Thisrequirestheapplicationofcorrection(ornormalisation)factors(e.g.heatingdegreedays).
Net results are the results gained thanks to an EE pro-gramme, fromthepoint of view of society.Thismeansnetresultsonlyaccountfortheportionoftheresultswhichwouldnothavebeengainedwithouttheprogramme.Thedifferencebetweengrossandnetresultscanbetakenintoaccount,eitherinadjusting the baseline(e.g.usingcontrolgroupsormarketmodelling), either in applying adjustment factors (such asfree-riderandspill-overeffects).
For local operations, an interesting option is to consider what occurs at national level as a control group.Forinstance,for a local operation promoting CFL (Compact FluorescentLightbulb),thebaselinecanbethenationalevolutionofCFLsales10.Anadvantageofthisalternativeisthatitmayenabletotake intoaccount theeffectsofnationalprogrammes.How-ever,ithastobecontrolledwhetherthecomparisonbetweennationaland localevolutions isnotbiased(e.g.due to localspecificities).
DefiningafourstepscalculationprocessTomakethecalculationoftheresultseasier,itispossibletoperformitasastep-by-stepprocess.11,12
Settingupanoperationalevaluationmethodforcalculatingimpactsresultsthenintwomaintasks:specifyingacalcu-lationmethod(forstep1)andanaccountingmethod(forsteps2and3).Persistencestudies(forstep4)areoftento
10. If the local operation cover a significant territory, the national evolution has to be understood as the evolution for the rest of the country (not covered by the operation).
11. unitary results means here either the results per participant or per equip-ment
12. Persistence of results means the efficient solution is still in place and opera-tional (retention), with a certain level of performance compared to the first year of implementation (performance degradation) [Vine 1992, Wolfe 1995].
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bemanagedat thecentral level tobemorecost-effective[Skumatz2005].
ChoosingacalculationmethodA calculation method is composed of three main elements:acalculation model,data collection techniquestofeedthismodel,andreference ex-ante valueswhichcompletethedatacollectedex-post.Choosingacalculationmethodisthenaniterativeprocess.Aparticularcalculationmodelwillrequireagivensetofdata.Lookingforwhatdataarealreadyavailableornot,itcanbededucedwhatdatashouldbecollected.Inparallel,thedifferentpossiblecollectiontechniques13canbeconsidered,takingintoaccounttheirtechnical14andpractical15feasibility,andtheircosts.Afterthat,availableandpossible-to-collectdataarecomparedtothedataneeded.Finally,thechoicesofcalcu-lationmodelanddatacollectiontechniquesareadjusteduntilavailableandpossible-to-collectdatafittodataneeded.
twocalculationapproachesTwomainapproachesmaybeusedtocalculateunitaryen-
ergy savings, whether energy consumption data are directlyavailableornot:
Whenenergyconsumptiondataaredirectly available,atleast fora sampleofparticipants, thegeneral calculationformulacomparesdirectlyenergyconsumptionbeforeandaftertheimplementationoftheevaluatedefficientsolution.
13. A list of these techniques can be found at: http://www.tecmarket.net/data.htm
14. e.g. it may not be possible to install a sub-meters, or to disaggregate data from existing metering
15. e.g. some data may be difficult to access for privacy (e.g. commercial data) or confidentiality (personal data) reasons
1.
4,105 BROC ET Al
step 1calculating the unitary gross annual results: main issues raised for this step are the baseline, the correction factors
and the choice of a calculation method (see the following section)
step 2calculating the total gross annual results: main issue raised for this step is to define a method to account for the
number of participants, especially when this accounting is not direct (e.g. when participants are not directly registered,
their number may be assessed through sales data)
step 3calculating the total net annual results: main issue raised for this step is to adjust the baseline or to apply adjustment
factors
step 4calculating total net results over time: main issue raised for this step is to assess the lifetime of the results, taking
account of their persistence
table6.Afourstepscalculationprocess
Possible-to-collect data
Data neededAvailable data
Data collection
techniques
Existing statistics,
experience feedback, etc. Calculation
model
Looking for the
best compromise
Figure 3. Iterative process for choosing a calculation method.
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Correctionornormalisationfactorsmaybeappliedwhennecessary as explained before. Energy consumption datacanbecollectedeitherfromenergybills,meterreadingsorenergyend-usemeasurements.
Equation1.Directformula
2.Whenenergyconsumptiondataarenotdirectlyavailable,for-mulacanbebrokendowninintermediateparameters(forwhich data are easier to access/assess) to calculate energyconsumption afterwards. For instance, energy consump-tionsmaybebrokendownintwoterms,loadanddurationofuse:
Equation2.Brokendownformula.
Otherdecompositionmaybeused(e.g.averageconsumptionpercycleandnumberofcyclesforwashingmachines).Andasforenergyconsumption,theintermediateparametersmayberelatedtoadditionalparameters(e.g.numberofpersonsperdwellingforthenumberofcycles).
qualitycontrolanduncertaintyanalysis
Qualification of the input dataAssessingqualityofinputdataresultsinlinkingtheirvalueseitherwitharange of variations(betweenaminimumandamaximum),orwithaconfidence interval(anditsconfidencelevel).Inpractice,thelatterisdifficulttoapply.Andsometimes,eventheformeroptionmaynotbepossible.Inthatcase,itmaybeusedaqualitativeappreciation(e.g.approximate,medium,good).
Qualification of the data sourcesDatasourcescanbedistinguishedeither theywereassessedex-anteordefinedex-post.Ex-antedataarereferencevaluesdeducedfromotherexistingexperiences,studiesorstatistics.Ex-postdataaredefinedfromcharacteristics,measurements,monitoringorsurveysspecifictotheoperationevaluated.Usu-ally,anex-postdatawillbemoreaccuratethananex-antedata,as it takes intoaccount theoperationspecificities.However,theoppositeisalsopossible,especiallywhenex-postdataaredefinedfromnon-representativesamples.
Quality Assurance Guidelines (for the evaluation)Nocalculationmodelcanbeassumedtobemoreaccuratethantheothers16.Evaluationreliabilitydependsmoreontheinputdataandtheassumptionsdonethanonthemodelitself.That’swhyVine[Vine1999app.50-52]proposedtousequality as-surance guidelinestoassesstheapplicationofanevaluationmethod.Ourmethodologyhasincludedthisapproach,adjust-edtothespecificitiesofevaluationlocaloperations.
Three progressive levels for addressing uncertaintiesAttheend,theaimistopresenttheresultswithinformationabouttheiruncertainties.Sofar,suchinformationhasneverbeenfound,amongallexperiencefeedbackoflocalEEopera-tionswecouldfind.Itwouldthereforebeunrealistictoexpectresultswithconfidenceintervalrightaway.Soourmethodolo-gyproposesaprogressive approach,withthreelevelsofinfor-mation.Firstlevelisatleastanorder of magnitude,basedonqualitativeappreciationsand/orassessmentsofminimumandmaximumvalues.Secondlevelisasensitivity analysis,usingthevariationrangesofeachparametertodefinepessimisticandoptimisticscenarios,leadingtomoreaccurateminimumandmaximumvalues.Thirdleveliseitherastatistical approachleadingtoconfidenceintervals(atgivenconfidencelevels),orMonteCarlosimulations,whichanalysesthedistributionoftheresultsfromrandomsensitivityanalysis.
16. see for instance [Ridge 1994, Schiffman 1993] for a comparison between statistical and engineering models.
4,105 BROC ET Al
unitary gross annual energy savings
= ( [annual energy consumption]0 - [annual energy consumption]1 )+/- normalisation factors
where:
- 0 and 1: situation respectively before and after implementation of an efficient solution
unitary gross annual energy savings = ( [P*ALF*D]0 - [P*ALF*D]1 )
where:
- 0 and 1: situation respectively before and after implementation of an efficient solution
- P: average rated power
- ALF: average load factor
- D: average annual duration of use
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KeyIssuesfortheory-bAseDevAluAtIon
systematicdescriptionoftheoperationFirststepinanalysingtheoperationtheoryistodescribeit.The standard frame designed to report evaluations enablesa systematic description, making this step easier. The frameisparticularlyused tomake the objectivesof theoperation more explicit,andthustodeducethepriorityobjectivesfortheevaluation.Italsobringsoutthemaincontextual factors and assumptionsoftheoperation,especiallythebarrierstheoperationisassumedtoaddress.
expressingoperationtheoryintoconcreteintermediateindicatorsandsuccessfactorsFromthesystematicdescriptionoftheoperation,theoperationtheoryisthenexpressedintoconcreteintermediateindicatorsand/orsuccessfactorspossibletomonitor.Usually,suchanap-proachisusedtorepresenttheoperationtheoryasalinear(orstep-by-step)process(seeforinstance[Joosen2005]).Howeverthisapproachmayeitherrequirealargeamountofdata(tryingtobeexhaustive),ormisssomekeyfactorsofsuccess(tryingtobestraightforward).Ourmethodologysuggestsacompromisebyrepresentingtheoperationtheoryasanon-linear combi-nation of success factors or intermediate steps,selectingthemostrelevantfactors/stepsfromexistingexperiencefeedback.Theaimisalsotobringoutpossibleinteractionsbetweensuc-cessfactorsand/orintermediatesteps.Thefinalresultofthisevaluationworkistherepresentationoftheoperationtheoryasasuccess pathway.
CriticalanalysisofresultsAsevaluationresultsarealwaysrelative,ourmethodologypro-videsguidelinesfortheircriticalanalysis.Thetwomainguide-linesaretotakeintoaccountthepossibledifferences of points of viewamongstakeholders(e.g.betweenapublicagency,autility,theretailersandtheparticipants)andtocomparetheoperationevaluatedwithsimilarones.Thiscomparisonistofocusnotonlyontheresultsbutalso,andinpriority,onthechoicesmadewhiledesigningtheoperation(e.g.whatcom-municationmeansareused,whatpartnershipsweresetup).
CriticalanalysisoflocaldimensionAsourmethodologyistoevaluatelocaloperations,itisessen-tialtoprovideguidelinestoconsiderthelocaldimensionoftheoperationsanalysed.Theseguidelinesaremainlybasedonthespecificitiesofthelocaldimensiondescribedinsection“Ad-vantages and drawbacks of the local dimension”.Theapproachistorevieweachspecificity,whetheritwasaneffectiveadvantageordrawbackfortheparticularoperation.
systematicprocessfordevelopingoperationalmethods
DesCrIptIonoftheproCessThefinalresultofourmethosdologyisaprocessfordevelopingoperationalmethods,whoseaimistoaddressinasystematicwaythekeyevaluationissuesdescribedinabovesections,inordertocompletetheevaluationtoolsforminganevaluationmethod.
4,105 BROC ET Al
1) analysing available experience
feedback and literature
2) specifying guidelines for theory-
based evaluation
- analysing the contextual factors around the efficient solution used
- searching for available experience feedback and other information
- structuring and analysing these information
guidelines for
- describing operation theory
- assessing intermediate indicators
- critical analysis of results and local dimension
- list of data to collect ex-post (and how to)
3) adjusting the standard frame
presenting the operation and evaluation
- analysing the main evaluation objectives
- selecting in details the evaluation fields to be covered
- adjusting the standard representation of the success pathway
(especially specifying the main success factors and indicators)
4) specifying the calculation method
- choosing the calculation model and the data collection techniques
- specifying the baseline, correction and adjustment factors, etc.
- looking for reference ex-ante values
- listing data to collect ex-post (and how to)
5) summarising guidelines in a
synthetic manual of use
synthesis of phases 2 to 4
- presenting the different documents/evaluation tools
- general list of data to collect ex-post (and how to)
6) testing the method on available
experience feedback or pilot operation
applying the method to available feedback (or an pilot operation)
- to detect practical issues (especially for data collection)
- to adjust the method when necessary
7) initiating the process of experience
capitalisation
using the new evaluations:
- to add new elements of comparison and to update ex-ante values
- to update guidelines for the implementation of future operations
- to update guidelines for future evaluations
Figure 4. Systematic process for developing operational methods.
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hoWtoInvolveConCerneDstAKeholDersIntheproCessInvolvingthestakeholderintheprocessfordevelopingevalu-ationmethodsisakeyfactortoinsurethemethodsareopera-tionalandtheywilluseit,andsobeinvolvedintheevaluationprocess.Thiswastriedwhileapplyingourmethodologyontwoconcretecases(localcampaignsforpromotingCFL,andraisingawarenessactionsinofficebuildings).Thepersonalcontactswereverygood,andoperationmanagersaswellascentralbod-ieswereveryinterestedintheevaluationprocess,evenbeforeour first contacts. So these applications were successful andprovidedinterestingfeedbackandlessonslearned.However,theissueofinvolvingstakeholdersshouldbefurtherexamined,especiallyforlessfavourablecases.
ConclusionsandperspectivesAsmentionedabove,ourmethodologywastestedontwocon-cretecasestudiesoflocaloperationsimplementedbyEDFinSouth-EastofFrance.Thefirstonewasa localcampaign topromoteCFL.Acompleteevaluationmethodwassetupandapplied,providingdetailedresults[Broc2006a].Thesecondcasestudywasaboutraisingawarenessactionsinofficebuild-ings.Existingexperiencefeedbackwasnotrichenoughtosetupacompleteevaluationmethod.Thepartontheory-basedevaluationcouldbefulfilled,butnotthepartonimpactevalua-tion.Still,thiscasestudyenabledustoobtaininterestingresults[Broc2006b].Presentingboth,themethodologyandthesecasestudies,wasnotpossibleinasinglepaper.Sotheanalysisofthecasestudieswillbethesubjectoffurtherpublications.
Inparallel,thismethodologyiscurrentlyadjustedtoevalu-atelargerEEactivities,especiallyEEactivitiestobereportedwithin the new European Directive on energy end-use effi-ciency[ESD2006].Changingofscaleandfittingtoparticularregulatoryrequirementsraiseadditionalevaluationissues,forinstance:
specifyingharmonisedaccountingrulesforMember-Stateswithdifferentexperiencesaboutevaluation
•
doublecountingofresultsbetweenEEactivitieswithsimi-lartargets
Oneofthemainevolutionsofourmethodologyistoconsiderthreelevelsofevaluationefforts1�.
Thesenewdevelopmentsofourmethodologyarecurrentlystudied and discussed within the Intelligent Energy EuropeprojectentitledEMEEES(EvaluationandMonitoringfortheEUDirectiveonEnergyend-useEfficiencyandEnergyServ-ices),coordinatedbytheWuppertalInstituteforClimateEnvi-ronmentandEnergy18.
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•
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Figure 5. Level of evaluation efforts related to data collection techniques.
levels of evaluation effortsmain data used
data collection techniques
already available data
well-known data collection
techniques
specific data collection
techniques
European reference values
Member States-specific
values
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level 1: minimum evaluation
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AcknowledgementsTheworkpresentedinthispaperwasdoneduringaPhDthe-sisjointlysupervisedinEcoledesMinesdeNantesandEcoledesMinesdeParis.ApartofthisPhDconsistedinaresearchcontract,entitledEVADEM,forEDFR&Dperformedinpart-nershipwiththeWuppertalInstituteforClimateEnvironmentandEnergy.CurrentworkstogofurtheraremainlyledwithintheIntelligentEnergyEuropeprojectentitledEMEEES(Evalu-ationandMonitoringfortheEUDirectiveonEnergyend-useEfficiencyandEnergyServices),coordinatedbytheWuppertalInstituteforClimateEnvironmentandEnergy.
TheauthorswouldliketothankPaulBaudryandSandrineHartmann (EDF R&D), Marie-Isabelle Fernandez and Ber-trand Combes (Regional Delegation of EDF PACA), StefanThomasandWolfgangIrrek(WuppertalInstitute)forthesuc-cessfulcollaborationwithinEVADEM.WewouldalsoliketothankStefanThomas(again),HarryVreuls(SenterNovem)andallEMEEESpartnersfortheircommentswithinEMEEES.
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