a quantum leap in investment technology...big losers of 2011 symbol company date at high high price...
TRANSCRIPT
A Quantum Leap in Investment Technology
Rule No. 1: Never lose money.
Rule No. 2: Don’t forget rule No. 1.
--Warren Buffett
$15,036,567
$17,427,603
$10,000,000
$11,000,000
$12,000,000
$13,000,000
$14,000,000
$15,000,000
$16,000,000
$17,000,000
$18,000,000
Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2020 Dec 2021 Dec 2022 Dec 2023
Portfolio A Portfolio B
In Portfolio A, the manager invests in 100 stocks per year:
70 increase by 25%; 30 decline by -30%
Average rate of return: 8.5%
In Portfolio B, the manager invests in 100 stocks per year:
70 increase by 25%; 25 decline by -24%; 5 increase by 5%
Average rate of return: 11.75%
5-year net difference, per $10 million: $2,391,036
Big Losers of 2011
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
AIG American Int'l 2/8/2011 $42.37 87 57 $20.07 0.8 -53%
APA Apache 4/29/2011 $133.37 39 34 $25.40 7.7 -81%
CRR Carbo Ceramics 7/25/2011 $180.25 100 6 $61.00 1.3 -66%
CAT Caterpillar 4/29/2011 $115.41 67 23 $57.91 4.7 -50%
GLW Corning 2/4/2011 $23.37 27 9 $10.88 1.8 -53%
DE Deere & Co 4/4/2011 $99.24 92 35 $61.72 0.5 -38%
FCX Freeport-McMoRan 1/12/2011 $60.92 80 55 $3.74 5.0 -94%
JNPR Juniper Networks 3/8/2011 $44.46 84 61 $17.79 1.4 -60%
LM Legg Mason 4/27/2011 $37.53 90 67 $22.38 1.1 -40%
NTAP NetApp 2/11/2011 $60.60 67 27 $21.22 5.0 -65%
NEM Newmont Mining 11/7/2011 $72.13 21 25 $15.56 3.8 -78%
OXY Occidental Petro. 5/2/2011 $111.02 60 64 $65.78 0.4 -41%
SHLDQ Sears Holdings 2/16/2011 $62.23 67 49 $0.16 7.9 -100%
MOS Mosaic 2/14/2011 $89.06 41 12 $19.39 6.6 -78%
Big Losers of 2012
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
CTL CenturyLink 9/6/2012 $42.95 100 78 $11.56 6.5 -73%
DLR Digital Realty Trust 7/30/2012 $78.83 100 54 $45.48 1.4 -42%
EXC Exelon 1/3/2012 $42.07 42 45 $25.46 3.9 -39%
FAST Fastenal 4/2/2012 $54.65 98 20 $38.37 0.2 -30%
GRPN Groupon 2/8/2012 $24.58 100 21 $2.63 0.8 -89%
JCP JC Penney 2/9/2012 $43.13 77 58 $0.97 6.9 -98%
NUAN Nuance Comms. 2/9/2012 $30.45 100 77 $13.10 1.8 -57%
TPR Tapestry 3/26/2012 $79.03 89 46 $27.44 3.5 -65%
TDC Teradata 9/6/2012 $80.62 99 67 $22.60 3.4 -72%
ZNGA Zynga 3/2/2012 $14.69 100 12 $2.10 0.7 -86%
Big Losers of 2013
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
CIT CIT Group 12/31/2013 $52.13 93 43 $25.65 2.1 -51%
DKS Dick's Sporting 12/31/2013 $58.10 77 33 $24.39 3.8 -58%
EMR Emerson Electric 12/30/2013 $70.26 90 29 $42.29 2.1 -40%
FOSL Fossil Group 8/6/2013 $126.55 86 30 $5.67 4.3 -96%
IBM Int'l Bus. Machines 3/15/2013 $214.92 100 75 $117.19 5.7 -46%
MDGL Madrigal Pharma. 1/28/2013 $14,345 96 70 $6.89 3.5 -100%
MAT Mattel 12/30/2013 $47.82 90 43 $9.26 5 -81%
PCOA Pendrell 7/12/2013 $675,000 93 43 $115,250 2.5 -83%
RL Ralph Lauren 5/21/2013 $189.56 90 7 $83.18 2.7 -56%
S Sprint 12/27/2013 $10.79 100 91 $2.45 2.1 -77%
TWTR Twitter 12/26/2013 $73.31 100 15 $14.01 2.4 -81%
Big Losers of 2014
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
CRR Carbo Ceramics 7/3/2014 $149.81 80 16 $2.95 4.5 -98%
CTRL Control4 1/17/2014 $27.79 100 14 $6.83 2 -75%
DISH DISH Network 11/28/2014 $79.41 100 73 $23.98 4.1 -70%
KODK Eastman Kodak 1/8/2014 $37.20 100 100 $2.30 4.8 -94%
XOM Exxon Mobil 6/23/2014 $104.38 62 60 $65.51 4.5 -37%
FOSL Fossil Group 11/12/2014 $112.48 79 50 $5.67 3 -95%
GPS Gap 9/4/2014 $46.59 83 44 $17.09 1.7 -63%
HOG Harley-Davidson 4/30/2014 $73.94 58 29 $31.91 4.7 -57%
HTZ Hertz Global 2/27/2014 $115.01 100 71 $8.70 3.3 -92%
MRO Marathon Oil 8/29/2014 $41.69 52 50 $6.73 1.5 -84%
MAXR Maxar Tech 12/31/2014 $81.74 100 90 $4.92 4.1 -94%
ORCL Oracle 12/23/2014 $46.01 91 69 $33.94 1.1 -26%
RAD Rite Aid 6/4/2014 $8.50 100 66 $0.71 4.8 -92%
SLB Schlumberger 6/27/2014 $117.80 63 16 $35.19 4.5 -70%
VIA Viacom 3/10/2014 $88.94 100 82 $27.67 4.8 -69%
VMW Vmware 4/1/2014 $111.80 93 63 $43.84 1.9 -61%
WYNN Wynn Resorts 3/4/2014 $247.95 98 75 $51.71 1.6 -79%
Big Losers of 2015
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
AGN Allergan PLC 7/28/2015 $339.50 100 82 $129.82 3.4 -62%
BHC Bausch Health 8/4/2015 $259.98 100 80 $8.51 1.7 -97%
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond 4/8/2015 $77.68 87 51 $10.62 3.7 -86%
CVS CVS Health 7/29/2015 $113.45 98 66 $52.36 3.6 -54%
DBD Diebold Nixdorf 11/6/2015 $37.60 95 69 $2.49 3.2 -93%
FIT FitBit 8/5/2015 $51.64 100 9 $4.33 3.2 -92%
HAIN Hain Celestial 8/3/2015 $67.68 97 63 $15.49 3.4 -77%
LB L Brands 11/4/2015 $100.22 100 69 $24.59 3.1 -76%
SHLDQ Sears Holdings 5/28/2015 $44.31 100 87 $0.16 3.6 -100%
TEVA Teva Pharma. 7/27/2015 $72.00 100 92 $11.78 2.3 -84%
Big Losers of 2016
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond 3/7/2016 $52.09 74 64 $10.62 2.8 -80%
GME GameStop Corp 4/27/2016 $33.38 80 80 $10.97 2.9 -67%
GE General Electric 7/19/2016 $32.93 97 70 $6.71 2.4 -80%
HTZ Hertz Global 7/26/2016 $52.61 100 76 $8.70 0.9 -84%
LB L Brands 1/1/2016 $95.82 100 73 $24.59 3.0 -74%
LCI Lannett 1/1/2016 $40.12 100 84 $3.43 2.8 -91%
LC LendingClub 1/1/2016 $11.05 92 46 $2.54 3.0 -77%
MAT Mattel 4/1/2016 $34.26 98 66 $9.26 2.7 -73%
PRGO Perrigo 1/26/2016 $148.94 100 84 $36.50 2.9 -75%
PBI Pitney Bowes 4/18/2016 $21.70 100 72 $5.66 2.7 -74%
RRC Range Resources 6/21/2016 $46.45 93 65 $10.23 2.7 -78%
TEVA Teva Pharma. 1/1/2016 $65.64 94 42 $11.23 1.8 -83%
Big Losers of 2017
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
MO Altria Group 6/20/2017 $77.33 100 94 $43.33 1.6 -44%
CBS.A CBS 4/6/2017 $70.31 100 78 $43.16 1.7 -39%
CELG Celgene 10/4/2017 $146.52 100 68 $59.21 1.2 -60%
DISH DISH Network 7/14/2017 $66.00 100 94 $23.98 1.4 -64%
GME GameStop 1/1/2017 $25.26 100 94 $10.97 2.2 -57%
GE General Electric 1/1/2017 $31.60 99 85 $6.71 1.9 -79%
KHC Kraft Heinz 2/17/2017 $96.65 100 92 $32.09 2 -67%
NWL Newell Brands 6/16/2017 $54.85 100 76 $15.40 1.4 -72%
PCG PG&E 9/11/2017 $71.56 96 76 $6.36 1.4 -91%
SLB Schlumberger Ltd 1/1/2017 $83.95 98 81 $35.19 2.0 -58%
SPB Spectrum 4/27/2017 $124.43 100 88 $41.68 1.7 -67%
KR The Kroger Co 1/18/2017 $34.91 91 70 $19.94 0.7 -43%
Big Losers of 2018
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
ABBV AbbVie 1/26/2018 $123.21 100 75 $77.14 1 -37%
AIG American Int‘l 1/25/2018 $64.80 97 70 $36.59 0.9 -44%
AAPL Apple 10/3/2018 $232.07 100 63 $142.19 0.3 -39%
KHC Kraft Heinz 1/23/2018 $80.27 100 88 $32.06 1.1 -60%
NCS NCI Building Sys 6/8/2018 $23.00 97 65 $6.21 0.8 -73%
NVDA NVIDIA 10/1/2018 $289.36 100 2 $127.08 0.2 -56%
BID Sothebys 6/8/2018 $59.67 86 57 $40.93 0.8 -31%
VHI Valhi 4/26/2018 $8.79 92 35 $1.67 0.6 -81%
WTW Weight Watchers 6/20/2018 $103.09 100 82 $20.36 0.7 -80%
ZFGN Zafgen 9/25/2018 $12.01 100 82 $3.00 0.5 -75%
Big Losers of 2019
Symbol CompanyDate at
HighHigh Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskLow Price
Years
LaterLoss
CTL CenturyLink 1/8/2019 $16.72 100 84 $12.30 0.2 -19%
CVS CVS Health 2/19/2019 $69.88 100 92 $54.47 0.2 -17%
HSIC Henry Schein 1/15/2019 $81.14 99 68 $60.22 0.2 -26%
IMGN Immunogen Inc 2/25/2019 $5.91 100 88 $2.51 0.0 -58%
KHC Kraft Heinz 2/20/2019 $48.26 100 74 $32.06 0.1 -34%
M Macy's 1/9/2019 $31.72 80 41 $23.72 0.2 -20%
MAXR Maxar Tech 1/2/2019 $12.50 100 96 $5.32 0.2 -56%
NLS Nautilus 1/17/2019 $11.79 77 31 $6.12 0.1 -48%
NTGR Netgear 1/1/2019 $52.03 82 58 $35.79 0.2 -31%
NWL Newell Brands 2/4/2019 $21.75 100 61 $15.58 0.2 -16%
TSLA Tesla Inc 1/17/2019 $347.31 88 56 $276.24 0.1 -20%
WTW Weight Watchers 1/2/2019 $39.89 100 64 $20.36 0.2 -47%
ZFGN Zafgen 1/4/2019 $5.30 88 77 $3.00 0.2 -39%
Symbol CompanyDate at
LowLow Price
Price
Risk
Fin.
RiskSell Price
Years
LaterGain
AMZN Amazon 1/27/2009 $48.44 41 7 $1,944.30 9.7 3,914%
AAPL Apple 4/17/2003 $0.94 5 13 $232.07 15.5 24,664%
AAPL Apple 6/28/2013 $56.65 15 2 $232.07 5.3 310%
ADSK Autodesk 10/27/1999 $4.28 7 14 $159.94 19.3 3,636%
SAM Boston Beer 9/17/1999 $7.50 17 11 $294.95 19.0 3,833%
STZ Constellation Brands 4/8/1992 $1.61 7 17 $234.22 26.1 14,406%
DDS Dillard's 11/21/2008 $2.78 0 43 $97.51 9.6 3,408%
IDXX Idexx Laboratories 4/23/1997 $2.50 3 2 $253.48 21.4 10,039%
ISRG Intuitive Surgical 3/2/2009 $28.44 15 8 $561.18 9.6 1,873%
JBSS John B Sanfilippo 12/19/2011 $7.23 0 21 $79.01 6.6 993%
LULU Lululemon Athletica 3/9/2009 $2.25 0 9 $162.49 9.6 7,138%
MSFT Microsoft 7/11/1989 $0.37 28 12 $113.57 29.2 30,468%
MSFT Microsoft 3/23/2004 $24.15 30 4 $113.57 14.5 370%
NVDA Nvidia Corp 10/9/2002 $1.64 0 7 $289.36 16.0 17,568%
RHT Red Hat 9/19/2001 $3.11 18 12 $180.02 17.4 5,688%
REGN Regeneron Pharma 3/11/2009 $12.05 21 14 $592.40 6.4 4,816%
SIG Signet Jewelers 2/3/2009 $6.24 0 42 $150.94 7.2 2,319%
SBUX Starbucks Corp 9/17/1998 $1.82 12 3 $70.84 20.4 3,783%
TSCO Tractor Supply 12/31/2000 $0.13 0 8 $97.13 17.9 73,033%
Many companies which have risen significantly were once low-risk.
ERS’s technology identifies safe companies at safe prices with exceptional growth potential.
$3,371,648
$1,910,829
$5,021,027
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
AMZN AAPL WCG
Examine ERS’s Risk Score of WellCare = 4
Examine WellCare’s Performance = +4,921%
Apple CRI score: 11
Amazon CRI score: 22
WellCare CRI score: 4
$2,891,858
$5,000
$10,000
$20,000
$40,000
$80,000
$160,000
$320,000
$640,000
$1,280,000
$2,560,000
$5,120,000
BKNG S&P 500
Booking Holdings:
S&P 500:
28,819%
257%
10/9/02, Booking Holdings:
Price Risk Indicator: 25
Financial Risk Indicator: 19
$1,837,820
$5,000
$10,000
$20,000
$40,000
$80,000
$160,000
$320,000
$640,000
$1,280,000
$2,560,000
Apple S&P 500
Apple: 18,278%
S&P 500 212%
Price Risk 5
Financial Risk 12
The only way to reduce the number and size of your losses
is to avoid risky investments.
The only way to avoid risky investments is to have a
reliable system to identify & measure investment risks.
identifies & measures investment risks
so you have fewer and smaller losses.
The most profitable times to buy a stock are:1. When the company is financially strong and very liquid,
2. When it has demonstrated a strong, growing need for its products,
3. When management has demonstrated their capacity to prudently and
profitably manage the company, and
4. When the company’s shares can be purchased at a bargain price.
ERS identifies companies which meet these criteria.
Nimble investors have enjoyed exceptional profits by actively
buying and selling such companies, rather than by being long-
term holders. Even the strongest companies fall in price when
valuation metrics indicate great risk.
ERS distinguishes strong companies from weak companies.
ERS’s valuation metrics distinguish bargain prices from risky prices.
The next slide demonstrates ERS’s value proposition.
$0.25
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
$4.00
$8.00
$16.00
$32.00
$64.00
$128.00
Micron Technology
2/9/16: $9.98
Price Risk: 5
12/9/14: $35.66
Price Risk: 62
11/23/12: $5.68
Price Risk: 7
3/9/09: $2.58
Price Risk: 18
11/21/08: $1.87
Price Risk: 25
9/19/06: $17.74
Price Risk: 37
5/3/05: $9.70
Price Risk: 12
2/13/03: $6.76
Price Risk: 39
7/14/00: $96.56
Price Risk: 41
5/25/99: $17.50
Price Risk: 72
7/31/96: $9.44
Price Risk: 7
9/13/95: $46.56
Price Risk: 38
1/17/90: $0.90
Price Risk: 0
2/26/19: $42.96
Price Risk: 28
12/24/18: $29.02
Price Risk: 13
5/30/18: $62.57
Price Risk: 44
8/7/97: $29.25
Price Risk: 35
9/2/84: $3.83
Price Risk: 100
$0.50
$1.00
$2.00
$4.00
$8.00
$16.00
$32.00
$64.00
Urban Outfitters
4/3/19: $31.96
Price Risk: 8
6/19/18: $45.34
Price Risk: 70
6/8/17: $16.35
Price Risk: 5
1/20/16: $20.95
Price Risk: 33
2/25/15: $38.83
Price Risk: 48
12/6/06: $24.26
Price Risk: 78
8/2/06: $14.30
Price Risk: 32
3/18/03: $3.12
Price Risk: 19
1/2/01: $1.02
Price Risk: 1
Low DateLow
Price
Price
RiskHigh Date High Price Gain
1/17/1990 $0.90 0 9/13/1995 $46.56 5,074%
7/31/1996 $9.44 7 8/7/1997 $29.25 210%
5/3/2005 $9.70 12 9/19/2006 $17.74 83%
11/21/2008 $1.87 25 12/9/2014 $35.66 1,807%
3/9/2009 $2.58 18 12/9/2014 $35.66 1,282%
11/23/2012 $5.68 7 12/9/2014 $35.66 528%
2/9/2016 $9.98 5 5/30/2018 $62.57 527%
12/24/2018 $29.02 13 2/26/2019 $42.96 48%
High DateHigh
Price
Price
RiskLow Date Low Price Loss
9/2/1984 $3.13 100 1/17/1990 $0.90 -71%
9/13/1995 $46.56 38 7/31/1996 $9.44 -80%
7/14/2000 $96.56 41 2/13/2003 $6.76 -93%
9/19/2006 $17.74 37 11/21/2008 $1.87 -89%
2/17/2011 $11.80 31 10/26/2012 $5.47 -54%
12/9/2014 $35.66 62 2/9/2016 $9.98 -72%
5/30/2018 $62.57 44 12/24/2018 $29.02 -54%
ERS - Indications of Potential Gains ERS - Indications of Potential Losses
ERS’s technology measures and rates the financial and price risks of individual stocks.
The tables below provides clear indications of how ERS’s technology helps advisors avoid
losses and identify safer companies, at safer prices, that can produce very significant gains.
Not all risky stocks fall greatly, but most do.
Not all safer stocks rise greatly, but some do.
By investing primarily in stocks which ERS identifies as much safer than average,
investors will likely experience fewer losses, and their losses will be less severe.
10% 13%
43%
74% 75% 78%
90%100% 100% 100%
90% 87%
57%
26% 25% 22%
10%
0% 0% 0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Highest
Risk
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Lowest
RiskProbability of Gain as % Probability of Loss as %
Based on long-term probability studies, ERS identifies the safest prices to buy any stock. This reduces the probability of
overpaying for a stock and increases the probability of making the highest returns on stocks.
This chart shows the probability of a gain or a loss for a stock based on the risk level indicated by ERS’s proprietary price
risk metrics. This study finds the “safest” prices to pay for a stock, which have the highest probability of producing gains.
The green bars indicate the probability of gain, and the red bars indicate the probability of a loss. As the risk metric
improves, the probability of making a gain can increase very significantly, to 100%, based on the past .
serves fiduciaries:
1. Price Risk Reports & Price Risk Alerts
• Daily, weekly or monthly
2. Financial Risk Reports & Financial Risk Alerts
• Daily, weekly or monthly
3. Custom Research Identify the safest price for stocks that you like
Unique Equity Searches
The “safest” Income Stocks
Index Price Risk Ratings
Sector Financial & Price Risk Ratings
NVP studies and Risk & Price Trajectory Studies
Select any criteria, ERS will find what you’re looking for
Back-testing research models
“Best-Fit” metric studies for individual companies
Mutual Fund Risk Research
Find the “safest” stocks in any sector or market cap category
…and more; ask us, we’re here to help.
ERS technology is unequaled in providing Financial Risk Alerts years before a company fails.
Aeropostale, Inc.
Agway Inc.
Avaya holdings
Bally Fitness
Beechcraft
Bethlehem Steel
Blockbuster
Boston Chicken
Brookstone
Caesars Entert.
Chesapeake Corp.
Chiquita Brands
Circle K
Circuit City
Color Tile
Columbia Gas
Cumulus Media
Days Inns
Delta Air
Dow Corning
Eastman Kodak
Eddie Bauer
Emerson Radio
Enron
eToys
Formica Corp.
Fruit of the Loom
General Motors
Global Crossing
Great Atlantic
Greyhound Lines
Hartmarx
Hechinger Co
High Voltage
House of Fabrics
Imperial Sugar
Interstate Bakeries
ITT Educational Serv.
Kaiser Aluminum
Kinder Care Learning
Kmart
Lear Corp
Lehman Brothers
Levitz Furniture
Loral Space
Marvel Entertain.
Mattress Firm
Mayflower Group
Memorex Telex
Morrison Knudsen
National Gypsum
National Steel
Nortel Networks
Northwest Airlines
NTL Comm.
Orion Pictures
Outboard Marine
Owens Corning
Pan Am
Payless Cashways
Peabody Energy
PG&E
Pilgrim’s Pride
Polaroid Corp
R.H. Donnelley
RadioShack
Refco Finance
Reliance Group
Rockport
Safelite Glass
Safety Kleen
Sbarro
Sea Containers
Sears Holdgs.
Service Merch.
Sharper Image
Singer
Six Flags
Sports Authority
Sunbeam
Syms
Texaco
Toys “R” Us
Trans World Air
Tribune
Tweeter Home
U.S. Home
UAL
United Artists
US Airways
USG Corp
Vlasic Foods
W.R. Grace
Wang Labs
Wet Seal
Winn-Dixie
Wireless One
Worldcom
Zale Corp.
Zenith
Call Today for a Free Demonstration
Thank you.
Raymond M MullaneyFounder & CEO