A Rapid Assessment of Climate A Rapid Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability for Change Vulnerability for

Conservation & Conservation & Management in New MexicoManagement in New Mexico

Carolyn EnquistCarolyn EnquistGeorge Wright Society ConferenceGeorge Wright Society Conference

March 14, 2011March 14, 2011

Carolyn EnquistCarolyn EnquistGeorge Wright Society ConferenceGeorge Wright Society Conference

March 14, 2011March 14, 2011

I. Background

II. The Approach

III. Closing remarks & future research

Source: C. AllenOctober 2002 May 2004

Photos: C.D. Allen, USGSPhotos: C.D. Allen, USGS

(PNAS 2005)

Map Source: Hoerling & Eischeid 2007, “Dust Bowl” forecast by Seager et al. 2007, Science.

Future climate projections for the SouthwestFuture climate projections for the Southwest

Graphic: J. Kastner

What does this mean for my

system?

How do I deal with the

uncertainty ANDcomplexity?

Will I be able to meet my goals?

WHERE DO I BEGIN???

Slide: Molly Cross, WCS

The Challenge of Climate ChangeThe Challenge of Climate Change

Graphic: J. Kastner

What are implications for conservation

priorities in NM & Southwest?

How do we reduce

vulnerability & increase

resilience?

How do we prioritize action?

How do we identify

adaptation strategies?

Slide: Molly Cross, WCS

Indentified Framing QuestionsIndentified Framing Questions

Questions: TNC & University of Arizona Workshop for Resource Managers (McCarthy, Enquist & Garfin, Eos 2008)

How do we work together & exchange knowledge?

Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework

Approach: An Integrated Assessment Framework

1. Rapid regional assessment of climate exposure (Girvetz et al. PLoS One)

Identify observed physical & ecological impacts Analyze recent & future climate exposure

2. Determine implications for conservation priorities (Enquist et al. in review)

Evaluate exposure relative to ‘surrogates of sensitivity’

Develop ‘hypotheses of vulnerability’ Prioritize action at regional level

3. Landscape-scale conservation adaptation planning (Cross et al. in review)

Identifying adaptation options in high priority landscapes

Identify observed physical impactsIdentify observed physical impacts

1. Identify climate-linked physical changes in the West:

• Increased aridity• More rain than snow• Declines in snowpack• Changes in the timing

of peak stream flows

2. Look for evidence of this across the state:

Declines in snowpack (green dots)

(NRCS SNOTEL) Earlier peak streamflows

(blue)(Stewart et al. 2004)

Lines: USGS HUC-8

Population changesMortality & recruitmentShifts in distributions

# Cases: 40

Changes in phenology# Cases: 2

Invasive speciesNon-native & native

# Cases: 5

Altered disturbance regimes Fire, erosion, etc.

# Cases: 2

Identify observed ecological impactsIdentify observed ecological impacts

1991-2005

Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994)

2000-2005

Evaluate recent climate exposureEvaluate recent climate exposure

Composite of T & PPT departures (relative to 1961-1990)

1991-2005

Source: Enquist & Gori 2008, TNC report, www.nmconservation.org

2000-2005

Evaluate exposure + sensitivityEvaluate exposure + sensitivity

Sensitivity Proxies:

• Conservation areas (from ecoregional assessments)

• Drought-sensitive species (across taxa)

Potential vulnerability to climate change

1991-2005

Base data source: PRISM (Daly et al. 1994)

Enquist, Girvetz & Gori, TNC report, ms in prep.

winter spring

summer fallannual

Evaluate recent climate exposureEvaluate recent climate exposure

Trend in moisture stress (1970-2006)

Evaluate future climate exposureEvaluate future climate exposure

Base data source: IPCC-AR4, downscaled to 12km by Maurer et al. (2007, Green Data Oasis), http://www.engr.scu.edu/~emaurer/data.shtml

2020-2039 2080-2099

Implications for watersheds & species of concern

Implications for watersheds & species of concern

annual

Less exposure

More exposure

Source: SWreGAP

Select Landscape for Adaptation Planning Select Landscape for Adaptation PlanningGoat Peak pika

Catastrophic Fire (2000)

Post-fire Erosion

Jemez Mountains salamander

Forest dieback

The Jemez Mountains: Bandelier National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest,

Valles Caldera National Preserve, Los Alamos National Lab

Select conservation targetand

Define management objective

Select conservation targetand

Define management objective

Identify intervention pointsand management actions

Identify intervention pointsand management actions

Evaluate actionsEvaluate actionsDevelop

action plan

Implementaction plan

Monitor and evaluate action

plan efficacy

Repeat for:• more targets• more

objectives• more

information

ID info. needs

ID info. needs

Build conceptual

model

Build conceptual

model

Identify future

climate scenarios

Identify future

climate scenarios

Assessclimate change impacts

Assessclimate change impacts

Adap

tatio

n pl

anni

ng p

hase

Implem

entation & evaluation phase

Cross et al, Cross et al, in reviewin review

Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) FrameworkAdaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework

• Identification of adaptation strategies: – local managers & scientists worked

together to break down uncertainty paralysis.

• Transparent process:– Assumptions and logic documented,

justifying specific actions.

• Identified future information/research needs.

• Provided impetus for landscape management:– collaboration and continued dialogue via

formation of informal CC learning network.

Workshop outcomesWorkshop outcomes

Four Corners assessment & workshopsFour Corners assessment & workshops

2. Gunnison Basin

3. Four Forest Restoration Initiative (“4-FRI”)

4. Bear River Basin

1. Jemez Mountains

Robles & Enquist 2011

Glick et al. 2011

Closing remarks & current researchClosing remarks & current research

How do we track the fingerprints of climate change impacts? V= (E + S – AC)

Vulnerability assessment needs to be a dynamic process

“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007)

Closing remarks & current researchClosing remarks & current research

ScienceAdaptationMitigationCommunication

Acknowledgments Acknowledgments

Dr. Dave Gori (TNC-NM)

Dr. Evan Girvetz (TNC, UW)

Dr. Molly Cross (WCS)

Dr. Gregg Garfin (U Arizona)

Anne Bradley (TNC-NM)

Patrick McCarthy (TNC-NM)

carolyn@usanpn.org

www.usanpn.org