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A report on skills mismatches in
Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire LEP
June 2017
2
About the research
The research provides detailed mapping of the supply and demand for technical and skills in a local economy. The project employed a new approach to classifying technical courses, apprenticeships and jobs into 5 primary and 59 secondary occupational groups to enable meaningful analysis of supply and demand. The design of this new approach involved analysing more than 400 college-based courses, almost 200 apprenticeships frameworks and pathways, and 228 technical occupations. Sources for the development of the approach included the ONS’ SOC Code Manual, careers guidance published by the Skills Funding Agency and other organisations, and the websites of qualification bodies. The mapping is used to analyse the supply of technical skills using data from the Skills Funding Agency’s Data Cube on completions of college-based courses and apprenticeships. For the demand for technical skills, job vacancy data from Burning Glass is used along with data from the Labour Force Survey on qualification levels. For 2015/16, this report analyses more than 19,000 college-based course completions, nearly 13,000 apprenticeships and around 200,000 job vacancies across the D2N2 area. The report also gives a broad overview of employer demand within the local economy and includes analysis of raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey. UKCES surveyed 3,127 employer establishments in D2N2 on a range of questions on recruitment, skills and training. Latter sections of this report focuses on the proportion of vacancies that were ‘skills shortage vacancies’, defined as those vacancies which were proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience.
The Centre for Progressive Capitalism
The Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s mission is to develop policies and influence policymakers to
instigate a more progressive and democratic capitalism. Our work is led by a cross-party advisory
board and a steering group of technical and policy experts. We undertake original research and
promote debate through publications, expert seminars and public engagement.
3
Contents
Executive summary ................................................................................................................................ 5
Vacancy analysis at the primary and secondary group level ................................................................ 6
The supply and demand for skills in technical occupations in D2N2 ................................................. 12
Technical groupings .......................................................................................................................... 13
Core technical ................................................................................................................................... 16
Semi-technical .................................................................................................................................. 23
Public sector technical ..................................................................................................................... 29
Privately funded training ................................................................................................................. 31
Reprioritising technical skills provision ............................................................................................... 32
Core technical ................................................................................................................................... 32
Semi-technical .................................................................................................................................. 36
Technical – advanced ....................................................................................................................... 39
SFA Funding ...................................................................................................................................... 42
Sectors – Technical ............................................................................................................................... 55
Business services .......................................................................................................................... 56
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ................................................................. 57
Health and social work ................................................................................................................. 58
Manufacturing .............................................................................................................................. 59
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities ..................................................... 60
Construction ................................................................................................................................. 61
Sectors – Professional .......................................................................................................................... 62
Health and social work ................................................................................................................. 63
Education ...................................................................................................................................... 64
Business services .......................................................................................................................... 64
Manufacturing .............................................................................................................................. 65
Information and communications ............................................................................................... 66
Public administration ................................................................................................................... 67
Construction ................................................................................................................................. 68
Appendix – Methodology of the mismatch analysis ........................................................................... 69
4
Definitions and Groupings
This report’s primary focus is on technical occupations. It defines a technical occupation as any that
on average is done by less than 30% graduates (as indicated by the highest level of education identified
in the labour force survey) and can be linked to relevant FE courses or apprenticeships.
Our technical definition is broken down into 5 primary groups to allow for more detailed analysis.
The groups are defined as follows:
Core technical: these are technical occupations that are typically held by people with level 3
qualifications or above.
Semi-technical: these are occupations that are typically held by people with level 2
qualifications or below. While further education can lead to these occupations, it is also
possible that some people will enter them without having done an FE course or
apprenticeship, given the relatively low level of skill required.
Public sector technical: technical occupations that are predominantly in the public sector.
Examples include care workers and teaching and educational support assistants
Privately funded training: these are occupations which are not typically done by graduates,
but nor are they unskilled. They are occupations that are technical in nature but for which
publicly funded training is not commonly provided. An example is skilled drivers.
Technical – advanced: these are occupations towards which FE can often provide a first step
or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common. They
also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in the core
technical group. Examples include artists and designers and engineering professionals.
Alongside these 5 technical primary groups, sections of the analysis consider four additional primary
groups:
Professional: occupations from the standard professional and associate professional SOC
major groups that on average are done by more than 30% graduates
Managers: same as the standard SOC major group
Elementary: same as the standard SOC major group
Other: those occupations that are not in the professional, associate professional, managers or
elementary SOC major groups but cannot be considered technical or professional for a variety
of reasons. These make up less than 3% of total vacancies.
Each of these primary groups consists of a number of secondary occupation groups and each of these
comprises of similar 4 digit SOC code occupations. For example, there are five electrician related
occupations at the 4 digit SOC code level. These are grouped into the ‘Electricians and electronic
trades/technicians/engineers’ secondary occupation group. Because this group is made up of
occupations that predominantly require level 3 qualifications, it has been put in the core technical
primary group.
5
Executive summary
This report on the skills mismatches in the Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire
(D2N2) Local Enterprise Partnership provides a number of insights into the composition and dynamics
of the area’s labour markets.
The report indicates that core technical and semi-technical occupations dominate the composition of
employer demand in D2N2, accounting for half of all vacancies. More detailed analysis of job vacancy
data suggests slightly stronger than average employer demand for core technical skills – and technical
skills more widely – in the area. 19% of job vacancies in D2N2 in 2016 were for core technical roles,
compared to an average of 18% across the UK. Similarly, all technical roles made up 62% of total
vacancies in D2N2, higher than the 60% seen nationally.
Combining the relative prevalence of technical vacancies with another of the report’s findings – that
technical roles generally enjoy an average pay premium of £13,840 over the national living wage, rising
to £17,520 for core technical roles specifically – it is clear that there is significant opportunity for
employment and income growth in this area.
However, analysis of UKCES’s Employer Skills Survey suggests that as much as 23% of technical
vacancies can be classed as skill shortage vacancies. As a reflection of the higher skill levels required,
this figure rises to 31% for core technical occupations. The presence of skills shortage vacancies implies
employers are having a hard time sourcing the technical skills they require to expand and grow.
Technical education will therefore play a key role in unlocking D2N2’s future economic success.
The report identifies a number of ways technical education provision in D2N2 could be re-balanced to
better capitalise on these opportunities. While in many ways course provision reflects the needs of
local employers, there is also potential significant under and oversupply of certain courses.
Key findings:
Under the wider definition, technical vacancies make up 62% of vacancies in D2N2, slightly
higher than the 60% recorded nationally. Of this, 31% are semi-technical, 19% are core
technical, 5% are public sector technical and 5% are privately funded training.
The health and social work sector is the largest source of employer demand in the area, with
24% of the total, followed by 17% for manufacturing and 15% for education.
The core technical occupations have an average advertised salary of £30,600 in D2N2,
compared to £25,700 for semi-technical.
According to employers, 31% of core-technical vacancies in D2N2 are difficult to fill due to
skills shortages. This is significantly higher than for semi-technical, with 19%, suggesting
employers are struggling to find the higher skills they need in the current local labour market.
There were an estimated 2,700 more skills shortage vacancies for core technical roles than
relevant FE course completions in 2015/16. Breaking this down reveals a potential
undersupply of 1,520 for IT engineers and technicians, 920 for metals, tools and instruments
manufacturing and 870 for electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers FE course
completions relative to skills shortage vacancies.
6
Vacancy analysis at the primary and secondary group level
Technical vacancies make up 62% of vacancies in D2N2, slightly higher than the 60% recorded
nationally.
Of this, 31% are semi-technical, 19% are core technical, 5% are public sector technical and privately
funded training, and 2% are technical. 25% of vacancies are professional.
Chart 1: Share of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire versus the UK average, 20161
1 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
1%
4%
9%
26%
2%
4%
4%
18%
32%
60%
1%
4%
8%
25%
2%
5%
5%
19%
31%
62%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Other
Elementary
Managers
Professional
Technical - advanced
Privately funded training
Public sector technical
Core technical
Semi-technical
of which:
Technical
D2N2
UK
7
Since 2013 the D2N2 area has enjoyed steady growth in advertised job vacancies. Overall, technical
vacancies have jumped from less than 110,000 to more than 124,000, an increase of 13%.
Breaking this down, semi-technical vacancies increased by 9%, from 55,840 in 2013 to 61,090 in 2016.
But it was for the core technical vacancies where the most substantial job growth was seen over this
period. The area saw growth of 23%, from 31,420 to 38,610, representing a significant strengthening
in employer demand for core technical skills. The core technical group’s share of total vacancies also
increased, from less than 18% to more than 19%, while the share of semi-technical vacancies fell from
32% to 31%.
Chart 2: Number of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham
and Nottinghamshire, 2016 versus 20132
2 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
1,430
9,240
13,240
42,940
3,870
9,670
9,160
31,420
55,840
109,960
1,270
7,440
16,440
50,570
3,660
9,740
10,920
38,610
61,090
124,020
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Other
Elementary
Managers
Professional
Technical - advanced
Privately funded training
Public sector technical
Core technical
Semi-technical
of which:
Technical
2016
2013
8
Core technical occupations have an average advertised salary of £30,630 in D2N2, compared to
£25,710 for semi-technical. This suggests that the upskilling provided by FE can help young people
into significantly better paying jobs, contributing to the creation of inclusive growth in the area.
Chart 3: Mean advertised salary for job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire versus the UK average, 20163
3 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
£13,100
£20,150
£21,330
£45,360
£45,190
£21,390
£27,360
£29,150
£35,270
£38,520
£30,630
£35,920
£13,100
£18,460
£19,570
£39,740
£40,770
£19,300
£24,820
£25,710
£30,620
£35,210
£26,940
£31,180
£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000
UK National Living Wage
Elementary
Other
Professional
Managers
Public sector technical
Privately funded training
Semi-technical
Core technical
Technical - advanced
of which:
Technical
All
D2N2
UK
9
Looking now at the geographical breakdown of job vacancies within the D2N2 area by local authority,
advertised vacancies were heavily concentrated in D2N2’s two main urban centres in 2016. More
than two of every three vacancies advertised were for jobs based in the local authority area of either
Nottingham or Derby.
Chart 4: Share of job vacancies by local authority area in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 20164
4 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
6%
28%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
North East Derbyshire
Bolsover
Gedling
Rushcliffe
Broxtowe
High Peak
Ashfield
Erewash
Derbyshire Dales
South Derbyshire
Newark and Sherwood
Bassetlaw
Amber Valley
Mansfield
Chesterfield
Derby
Nottingham
10
A slightly higher proportion of vacancies were core technical in Derby than in Nottingham, with
20% and 19% respectively. Similarly, 32% of vacancies in Derby were semi-technical, compared to
29% in Nottingham. Nottingham, however, had a higher share of professional vacancies, with 27%
versus 24% for Derby.
Chart 5: Share of job vacancies by primary occupation group in Derby and Nottingham, 20165
Chart 6 below turns the attention from primary to secondary occupation groups. These are groups of
the ONS’s four digit SOC code occupations. The technical four digit SOC codes occupations have been
allocated to 59 groups of similar occupations (secondary occupation groups) to allow for more
meaningful analysis at a slightly higher level. This is necessary because it allows for a more realistic
comparison of occupations and FE courses (see mismatch section below).
It is rare that completion of an FE course can only lead directly into a single occupation at the four
digit SOC code level. In other words, FE course completions can correspond to a number of similar
occupations, hence the need for slightly higher level groups.
Each of these secondary occupation groups corresponds to one of the primary occupation groups in
the above chart. More details of how primary groups, secondary groups and occupations relate to one
another can be found in the appendix.
5 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
1%
3%
8%
24%
2%
5%
4%
20%
32%
64%
1%
3%
8%
27%
2%
5%
5%
19%
29%
60%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Other
Elementary
Managers
Professional
Technical - other
Privately funded training
Public sector technical
Core technical
Semi-technical
of which:
Technical
Nottingham
Derby
11
Chart 6 identifies the five secondary occupation groups with the highest share of total vacancies, for
both the core technical and semi-technical primary groups. For core technical groups, IT engineers and
technicians had the highest share, with 6% of the total number of vacancies. For the semi-technical
groups this was sales and retail, with 9% of the overall total.
Chart 6: Top 5 secondary occupation groups by share of total vacancies for the core technical and
semi-technical primary groups in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 20166
6 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
2%
2%
5%
6%
9%
2%
2%
2%
2%
6%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
Manufacturing operatives
Contact centre and customer service occupations
Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors
General administative occupations
Sales and retail
SEMI-TECHNICAL
Business and related associate professionals
Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers
Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing
Engineering and planning/process/productiontechnicians
IT engineers and technicians
CORE TECHNICAL
12
The supply and demand for skills in technical occupations in
D2N2
According to employers, 31% of core-technical vacancies in D2N2 are difficult to fill due to skills
shortages7. This is significantly higher than for semi-technical, with 19%, indicating employers are
struggling to find the higher skills they need in the current local labour market.
This points to a key role for FE colleges in supporting inclusive economic growth in D2N2. If FE course
providers are able to offer the right kind of technical training in the right sorts of skills then not only
will young people be able to move into higher paid jobs, local businesses will also be able to grow and
prosper. Of course, this will also be an issue of capacity and student demand.
Chart 7: The percentage of vacancies that were skills-shortage vacancies in Derby, Derbyshire,
Nottingham and Nottinghamshire for each primary occupation group, 20158
7 Skills shortage vacancies are those vacancies that were proving difficult to fill due to the establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills, qualifications or experience. 8 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire.
17%
16%
32%
20%
20%
27%
31%
32%
24%
17%
21%
33%
17%
19%
27%
30%
31%
23%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Managers
Elementary
Professional*
Public sector technical
Semi-technical
Privately funded training
Technical - other
Core technical
of which:
Technical*
D2N2
UK
13
Below follows an analysis of the alignment of technical courses to technical occupations. The ESFA
datacube is analysed and courses are mapped to corresponding technical occupations to highlight
potential over or undersupply of various skill sets.
The charts include data on apprenticeships, which also form a key part of how policy can combat skills
shortages. The number of apprenticeships, however, is not taken into account for mismatch
calculations.
Having said this, it is true that an occupation group with a large amount of skills shortage vacancies
and few FE course completions will be in a better position to tackle the skills shortages if there are a
good amount of apprenticeships. According to government data, 77% of apprentices stay with the
same employer after finishing.9
The objective of the mismatch analysis is to identify possible skill areas where LEPs and FE providers
can aim to either increase or decrease provision of technical courses or apprenticeships.
When considering the trend analysis it is important to note that the period 2014/15 to 2015/16 is
defined by steady decline in FE course numbers and strong growth in job vacancies. More
specifically, there was a 17% fall in the total number of FE courses considered in this report, from
22,400 to 18,500. This came during a period of particularly strong job vacancy growth of 46%.
The analysis is not conducted for professional roles, as the link between the provision of graduate
courses and local labour market demand is far weaker and less direct. This is due both to the greater
movement of graduates out of the area after course completion and the large variation in graduate
course subject and eventual career path.
Technical groupings
This section of the analysis looks at supply and demand of skills at the level of the primary technical
groupings (core technical, semi-technical, privately funded training, public sector technical and
technical – advanced). Each of these are made up of secondary groups of technical occupations, which
in turn are comprised of similar four digit SOC code occupations.
There were almost 24,000 more core technical vacancies than there were FE course completions in
D2N2 in 2015/16.
However, people already working in similar jobs will fill a certain portion of the core technical
vacancies. In other words, some of this potential undersupply of FE course completions can be
explained by industry churn. It is thus important to calculate how much of this undersupply is due to
skills shortages, as it is these jobs that FE policy should be targeting.
An estimated 31% of core technical vacancies are due to skills shortages (see appendix for
methodology). Hence, there were an estimated 2,700 more core technical skills shortage vacancies
than relevant FE course completions. It is worth noting that not everyone that takes a course will
necessarily continue into the corresponding occupation. Hence, supply would need to be slightly
above demand in a stable or growing occupation group.
9 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/key-facts-about-apprenticeships/key-facts-about-apprenticeships
14
If each of these 2,700 vacancies were filled by people currently earning the living wage it could
provide a boost of more than £47.3m per year in income, and enable firms to meet the current
demand for their goods and services. This boost in income would also stimulate the local economy
due to higher consumption, which in turn may result in higher investment.
There were approximately 27,000 more semi-technical vacancies than there were FE course
completions in D2N2 in 2015/16. Reflecting the lower skill level, only an estimated 19% of semi-
technical vacancies were skills shortage vacancies. As such, the entire potential undersupply at the
aggregate level disappears and FE course completions appear to be well aligned with the number of
semi-technical skills shortage vacancies.
Chart 8: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by primary technical group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1610
10 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code.
10,220
3,170 3,430 2,420
18,030
3,420 3,740 3,190 3,980 680 1,140 1,430
15,810
4,910 3,090 1,700
12,680
2,400 2,450 960
3,870
660 2,200 1,120
4,780
1,480
330
70
3,100
590 310 50
1,150
200 170 50
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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Job
Vac
anci
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SSV
s
FE C
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Job
Vac
anci
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SSV
s
FE C
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Core technical Semi-technical Public sector
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
15
Chart 9 suggests that the number of skills shortage vacancies for core-technical roles was less than the
number of relevant FE courses in 2014/15, but that the situation has significantly deteriorated since
then.
In all three of the primary groups in chart 8, the difference between the number of job vacancies
and the number of FE course completions has increased. In each case this is due both to the number
of vacancies increasing and to the number of FE course completions falling.
Between 2014/15 and 2015/16 the number of core technical vacancies grew by 48%, but the number
of FE course completions fell by 20%. Similarly, semi-technical vacancies were also up by 48%, with FE
course completions down by 19%. Public sector technical vacancies grew by 40% and FE course
completions fell 12%, explaining the more modest change in its mismatch.
Chart 9: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) for each primary technical group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014-15 – 2015-1611
It may seem contradictory that there are 19% skills shortage vacancies for semi-technical occupations
when there is a slight surplus of courses. However, these are aggregate figures and may hide what is
going on at the secondary group level.
11 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-12,200
2120
-25,980
1420
-2,420
2,920
-23,960
-2710
-27,310
90
-5,490
1,980
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
-
5,000
All SSV All SSV All SSV
Core technical Semi-technical Public sector
2014/15 2015/16
16
For example, if there are 1,000 more FE course completions than SSVs for sports and fitness instructors
and assistants but 1,000 fewer FE course completions than SSVs for accountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisors then at the aggregate level the system is in balance – the 1,000 surplus
for sports and fitness instructors and assistants balances out the 1,000 deficit for finance
technicians/analysts/advisors. However, it is unlikely that in reality the 1,000 extra people who have
sports instructor skills will be able to fill the skills shortages from the deficit of accountancy skills. As
such, skills shortages can persist even when the aggregate is in balance because the alignment of
courses to specific needs is important.
Similarly, the fact that there were 2,710 more skills shortage vacancies for core technical roles than
there were course completions in 2015/16 hides important variations at the secondary occupation
group level. The analysis now breaks down the primary technical groups to highlight these differences.
Core technical
Chart 10 shows the supply and demand for secondary occupation groups within the core technical
group that have the greatest undersupply of course completions relative to vacancies.
For IT engineers and technicians there were 7,240 more vacancies than relevant course completions
in 2015/16. This figure is 1,520 when only skills shortage vacancies are considered, which still suggests
that if course provision for IT engineers and technicians is boosted in conjunction with increased
demand from students then the region could benefit significantly.
There is also a potential undersupply of nearly 900 courses for electricians compared to skills shortage
vacancies in D2N2 in 2015/16.
Other core technical groups that could potentially benefit from greater course provision include
metals, tools and instruments manufacturing and engineering planning/process/production
technicians.
17
Chart 10: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1612
12 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
2,910
820 60 50
850 270 240 20
1,270 410
20 10
1,020 330 350 240
3,490
980
630 100
2,530
810 120 210
1,750
560 50 110
1,920
610 290 110
1,550
430
20 10
660
210 80
260
80 60
710
220 30
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Tota
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anci
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SSV
s
FE C
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Job
Vac
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Job
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Job
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IT engineers and technicians Electricians and electronictrades/technicians/engineers
Metals, tools and instrumentsmanufacturing
Engineering andplanning/process/production
technicians
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
18
Chart 11: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1613
13 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
84%
35%
51%
1%
22%
7%
73%
20%
14%
52% 24%
84%
54% 86%
15%
38%
2%13%
26%15%
24%
7% 11%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FE C
ou
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Ap
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FE C
ou
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Ap
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FE C
ou
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Ap
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FE C
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Ap
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IT engineers and technicians Electricians and electronictrades/technicians/engineers
Metals, tools andinstruments manufacturing
Engineering andplanning/process/production
technicians
16-18 19-24 25+
19
For each of the four groups identified above the position has deteriorated since 2014/15. This is an
indication that course completions have failed to keep up with growth in employer demand for these
skills.
In fact, IT engineers and technicians saw a 49% increase in vacancies, compared to a 1% fall in FE
course completions. There was a small increase in electrician course completions of 5%, but this was
well behind the 66% increase in vacancies.
Chart 12: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1614
14 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-4,620
-780
-2,010
-360
-2,290
-570
-1,710
-
-7,240
-1,520
-3,600
-870
-3,140
-920
-2,980
-500
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
IT engineers and techniciansElectricians and electronic
trades/technicians/engineersMetals, tools and
instruments manufacturing
Engineering andplanning/process/production
technicians
2014/15 2015/16
20
Chart 13 below outlines four further core technical secondary occupation groups for which there were
more job vacancies in 2015/16 than relevant course completions.
Chart 13: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1615
15 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
920
270 70
1,000 830
160 300
530
110 360 440 340
80 -
1,190
350
440 970
180 80
90
1,120
220
130 220 410
100 20
360
110
30
530
100 -
80
20
70 -
220
50 40
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Business and relatedassociate professionals
Medical, dental and healthtechnicians
Mechanical technicians andmaintenance
Vocational and industrialtrainers and instructors
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
21
Chart 14: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1616
Once again, the situation is deteriorating for each of the secondary groups in the above chart. In each
case vacancies went up and course completions went down.
16 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
15%29%
2%12%
76%
30%
0%
22%
52%
20%
68%
15%
57%
5%
62%
19%
79%
20%9% 13%
95%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%FE
Co
urs
es
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Business and relatedassociate professionals
Medical, dental and healthtechnicians
Mechanical technicians andmaintenance
Vocational and industrialtrainers and instructors
16-18 19-24 25+
22
Chart 15: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1617
17 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-1,520
-350
-980
250
-450
430
-470
-60
-2,410
-660
-1,960
-60
-1,170
210
-910
-180
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Business and relatedassociate professionals
Medical, dental and healthtechnicians
Mechanical technicians andmaintenance
Vocational and industrialtrainers and instructors
2014/15 2015/16
23
Semi-technical
Turning now to the semi-technical primary group, it is important to consider that while these
occupations can be done by people with relevant courses, this is not necessarily always the case. The
lower skill profile of these positions means it is more likely than for core technical occupations that
they will be done by people without specific qualifications.
For example, the secondary group with the highest deficit of courses to skills shortage vacancies is
sales and retail at 4,070. FE courses that correspond to sales and retail occupations do exist, but there
were no completions in D2N2 in 2015/16.
However, the fact that one of the 15 new technical pathways is sales, marketing and procurement
suggests that FE will have a role to play in this area in the future, if only predominantly through
apprenticeships. Furthermore, the estimated presence of more than 4,000 skills shortage vacancies in
the sales and retails secondary group suggests that employers are in fact finding it hard to fill these
positions.
In the case of accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors, the potential 1,750 undersupply
of courses relative to skills shortages vacancies deserves policy attention. Filling these jobs seems
more likely to require specific skills that FE courses can provide.
Chart 16: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1618
18 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
8,050
2,080 400
5,260
1,300 60
3,970
1,050 180 120 2,340
600 1,260 610
6,240
1,620
110
3,180
790 50
3,070
810 130 100
1,520
390 10 230
1,430
370
880
220
1,060
280 90 40
250
60 -
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
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cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
nti
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Sales and retail General administativeoccupations
Accountancy and financetechnicians/analysts/advisors
Contact centre and customerservice occupations
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
24
Chart 17: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1619
19 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
35%
14%
35%
13%
28%
1%
14%
18%
49%
18%
29%
64%
18%
44%
47%37%
47%58%
8%
81%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%FE
Co
urs
es
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Sales and retail General administativeoccupations
Accountancy and financetechnicians/analysts/advisors
Contact centre and customerservice occupations
16-18 19-24 25+
25
Judging from Chart 18, it once again seems likely that course provision is not keeping pace with job
growth in these areas, with the difference between course completions and vacancies increasing.
Chart 18: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1620
20 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-9,810
-2,390
-6,280
-1,420
-4,780
-840 -1,700
370
-15,730
-4,070
-9,210
-2,200
-7,700
-1,750
-2,840
220
-18,000
-16,000
-14,000
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
-
2,000
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Sales and retailGeneral administative
occupationsAccountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisorsContact centre and customer
service occupations
2014/15 2015/16
26
Chart 19 identifies four further semi-technical occupation groups with more job vacancies than FE
course completions. For each there remains a potential deficit when considering only vacancies due
to skills shortages.
Chart 19: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1621
21 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
1,540
480 210
370
1,430
520 200
510 740
190 10
450 130 - 10
930
290
50
1,000
360
80
110
600
150 20
370
100 40
10
150
50
-
130
50
-
-
190
50
80
20
- -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Manufacturing operatives Chefs Marketing associateprofessionals
Legal associate professionalsand secretaries
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
27
Chart 20: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1622
22 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
0% 4%
65%
18%
41%
100%
20%20%
30%
15%
36%
59%
0%
80%80%
66%
21%
46%
0% 0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%FE
Co
urs
es
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Manufacturing operatives Chefs Marketing associateprofessionals
Legal associateprofessionals and
secretaries
16-18 19-24 25+
28
As shown in chart 21, once more FE courses failed to keep up with job vacancy growth leading to a
deterioration across the mismatch between 2014/15 and 2015/16.
Chart 21: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1623
23 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-1,800
-510
-1,510
-330
-940
-230
-700
-200
-2,420
-620
-2,280
-650
-1,530
-390
-860
-220
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Manufacturing operatives ChefsMarketing associate
professionalsLegal associate professionals
and secretaries
2014/15 2015/16
29
Public sector technical
Chart 22 details the supply and demand for skills for secondary technical occupation groups primarily
in the public sector.
Interestingly, while there were around 3,070 more job vacancies for care workers than relevant
course completions in D2N2 in 2015/16, this deficit is eliminated when only considering skills
shortages. In fact, there were 430 more relevant course completions than skills shortage vacancies
for care workers. This seems to suggest that while there is considerable need for more care workers
in D2N2, that this is not an issue of lack of skills, more a lack of people wanting to go into the
occupation in the first place, or in fact stay there when they do.
Similarly, in terms of dealing with the overall undersupply of care workers, with average salaries of
only £18,400 in 2016 it is difficult to argue that greater course provision would be sufficient to fill all
of these vacancies. It is likely that government policy is a more important factor, especially given the
ongoing debate about the underfunding of adult social care in the UK.
Chart 22: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1624
24 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
2,260
430 390
1,150
480 100
320 230 680
150 300 40
490 110 100
1,680
320 850
640
960
200 140 410
720
160
500
50
430
100
630 20
380
70
10
50
210
40 -
-
300
60
10 230
50
140
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Care workers Child, youth and communityworkers
Teaching and educationalsupport assistants
Public services and NGOassociate professionals
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
30
Chart 23: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1625
25 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
66%
3%
45%
33%
11%18%
91%
0%
9%
27%
9%45%
10%
48%
8%
25%
25%
70%
45%
22%
79%
34%
0%
75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%FE
Co
urs
es
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Care workers Child, youth and communityworkers
Teaching and educationalsupport assistants
Public services and NGOassociate professionals
16-18 19-24 25+
31
Chart 24: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1626
Privately funded training
Calculating a mismatch for technical occupations for which training is predominantly privately funded
makes little sense considering the dataset only includes data on publically funded courses.
However, there are two secondary occupation groups in this category for which there are a significant
estimated number of skills shortage vacancies. There were 2,110 skills shortage vacancies for skilled
drivers and 830 for human resources and careers advisors. This suggests that the current model of
privately funded training is not proving sufficient.
The situation for human resources and careers advisors is likely to be complicated. While privately
funded training does exist – CIPD approved courses, for example – it is also possible that graduates of
business degrees will enter into the human resources industry via graduate schemes.
26 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-1,100
1,250
-550 -330
-790
330
-60
600
-3,070
430
-1,200
-650
-900
440
-270
620
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Care workers ChefsTeaching and educational
support assistantsPublic services and NGOassociate professionals
2014/15 2015/16
32
Reprioritising technical skills provision
In order to meet the skills shortages for technical occupations outlined above, re-prioritisation may
be necessary.
It is likely that self-employment levels in some of the occupation groups discussed below will be
relatively high. For example, ONS Labour Force Survey data suggest that there were 16,000 employees
and 43,000 self-employed in the UK for fitness instructor roles in the second quarter of 2016.
Furthermore, encouraging entrepreneurship is clearly key for developing a strong local economy.
However, there is still a strong case for some reprioritisation in further education provision given that
skills shortages exist side by side with course surpluses in D2N2. There is also significant evidence to
suggest that self-employed earnings are considerably below that of full employees. A report for the
Department for Business Innovation & Skills found that the estimated median annual earnings for all
self-employed was £10,800 in 2013/14, compared to £20,000 for all employees.27
Note, as alluded to above, the presence of skills shortage vacancies is not necessarily inconsistent with
well balanced FE courses or even a surplus of FE courses, either at the primary or secondary
occupation group level. At the primary level, a surplus of one secondary group can cancel out a deficit
of another secondary group, even though the skills are not interchangable.
There are a number of reasons why a surplus of courses at the secondary group level doesn’t
necessarily imply there should be no skills shortage vacancies:
Any reduction in skills shortages from 2015/16 course completions will only be captured in
future data
It would be wrong to assume that everyone completing an FE course will go on to closely
related employment
It is possible that the courses are not producing all of the required skills
This is still to some extent an aggregate level, hiding some variation at the four digit SOC code
level
Core technical
The analysis highlights three core technical occupations for which there were significantly more FE
course completions than vacancies. The potential deficits are of course larger when only considering
skills shortage vacancies.
For example, there were around 1,000 more FE course completions for media production officers,
operators and producer roles than skills shortage vacancies. The analysis suggests these students may
have had better job prospects had they chosen to do, for example, IT or electrician courses. The same
point, albeit to a slightly lesser extent, could also be made for beauticians and hairdressers and
barbers.
27 (BIS, 2016) ‘The income of the self-employed’
33
Chart 25: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1628
28 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
20 10 60 -
80 20
440
20 90
20
480
280
30 10
1,020
20
120 30
380
20
140
30
170
180
10
20
-
20
10
10
10
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200To
tal V
acan
cies
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
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SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Media production officers,operators and producers
Beauticians and related occupations Hairdressers and barbers
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
34
Chart 26: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1629
29 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
87%
24%
51%41%
49% 45%
11%
76%16%
41%17%
39%
2% 0%
34%
17%
34%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships
Media production officers, operatorsand producers
Beauticians and related occupations Hairdressers and barbers
16-18 19-24 25+
35
Encouragingly, the surplus has decreased for each of the three groups between 2014/15 and
2015/16. In each case this is due to the number of vacancies growing and the number of course
completions falling.
Chart 27: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1630
30 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
1,120 1,150
930
1,030
560
700
1,050 1,090
600
770
400
600
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
All SSV All SSV All SSV
Media production officers, operatorsand producers
Beauticians and related occupations Hairdressers and barbers
2014/15 2015/16
36
Semi-technical
Chart 28 below shows semi-technical occupation groups for which there were more course
completions than relevant vacancies in 2015/16 in D2N2, particulalry when considering only skills
shortage vacancies.
For sports and fitness instructors and assistants there were around 1,220 more course completions
than skills shortage vacancies in 2015/16. While some of this potential oversupply can be accounted
for by self-employment, this is an important area of potential realignment of course provision.
Chart 28: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1631
31 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
440
100
380
170 60 10
200 70 80 20 80 10 20 10
250 110
410
90
1,050
130
50 10
390
40 80 20
320
10 10 -
100
20
10
-
40 10
40
-30
10
70
- -
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
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Job
Vac
anci
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SSV
s
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Ap
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ips
Sports and fitnessinstructors and assistants
Veterinary nurses andanimal care
Air, rail and other travelassistants
Rail and road constructionand maintenance
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
37
Chart 129: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1632
32 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
82%
32%
81%
42%
86%
10%0% 1%
8%
39%
13%
44%
11%
85%
21%
63%
10%
29%
3%14%
3% 5%
79%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
rses
Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
nti
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ips
Sports and fitness instructorsand assistants
Veterinary nurses andanimal care
Air, rail and other travelassistants
Rail and road constructionand maintenance
Under 16 16-18 19-24 25+
38
The potential oversupply is easing for each of the occupation groups identified above, with the
exception of air, rail and other travel assistants, which has seen a slight increase since 2014/15. The
increase for air, rail and other travel assistants can be explained by the fact that FE course completions
grew by more than the number of vacancies. In each of the other cases the reverse was true.
Chart 230: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1633
33 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
780
1,270
570 620
230
340
500 510 490
1,220
490
600
290
420
220 250
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Sports and fitnessinstructors and assistants
Veterinary nurses andanimal care
Air, rail and other travelassistants
Rail and road constructionand maintenance
2014/15 2015/16
39
Technical – advanced
The technical – advanced group is made up of occupations towards which FE can often provide a first
step or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common. They
also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in core technical.
Chart 24 below outlines the course completions for artists and designers and performing arts.
In both cases there are significantly more course completions than vacancies. In one respect this is to
be expected as these courses are more of a foundation level before going on to further study, so it is
likely that this number would eventually shrink. Additionally, self-employment will also cut this surplus
down.
Chart 31:: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
2015/1634
34 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
250
70 150
10 120 30
120
280
80
1,040
70 20
420
180
50
80
40 10
10
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
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Ap
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ips
Artists and designers Performing arts
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
40
Chart 32: Percentage of FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for secondary
occupation groups by age group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1635
35 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
83%
38%
87%
10%
63%
11%7%
0% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FE Courses Apprenticeships FE Courses Apprenticeships
Artists and designers Performing arts
16-18 19-24 25+
41
The mismatch in performing arts has remained broadly similar between 2014/15 and 2015/16 because
FE course completions and job vacancies grew by almost the same amount.
Chart 33: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1636
36 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
930
1,250
340
540 550
1,060
320
500
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
All SSV All SSV
Artists and designers Performing arts
2014/15 2015/16
42
SFA Funding
Chart 34 below is a scatter plot of skills shortage vacancies versus SFA funding for FE courses, with
each point representing a secondary occupational group.
The chart shows that there appears to be little correlation between the two sets of data, although
there is a very slight positive association. This is consistent with the finding that the number of FE
courses is not strongly correlated with the number of skills shortage vacancies at the secondary
occupation level.
Chart 34: Skills shortage vacancies vs FE course funding by secondary occupation group, Derby,
Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/16
£0
£100,000
£200,000
£300,000
£400,000
£500,000
£600,000
£700,000
£800,000
£900,000
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Fun
din
g
SSVs
43
The supply and demand for the 15 Pathways
The following section presents mismatch analysis along the lines of the 15 new technical pathways
due to be introduced into the FE sector between 2019 and 2022. The vacancies include only those for
technical occupations.
Chart 27 shows that in terms of vacancies, sales, marketing and procurement was the largest
pathway in 2016, with 22% of the total. Business and administrative and engineering and
manufacturing accounted for 17% and 12% of the total technical vacancies respectively.
Chart 35: Share of technical job vacancies by pathway in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 2015/1637
37 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
0%
0%
0%
1%
3%
4%
4%
4%
6%
7%
9%
9%
12%
17%
22%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Protective services
Agriculture, environmental and animal care
Hair and beauty
Creative & Design
Health & Science
Catering & Hospitality
Childcare & education
Social care
Transport & logistics
Construction
Legal, finance & accounting
Digital
Engineering & Manufacturing
Business & Administrative
Sales, marketing and procurement
44
Chart 36 shows the average advertised salaries for technical vacancies across the 15 pathways. The
digital pathway has the highest average advertised salary at almost £37,000. As outlined below,
there were 1,660 more skills shortage vacancies for digital occupations than FE courses in 2015/16.
Chart 37: Average advertised salaries of technical job vacancies by pathway in Derby, Derbyshire,
Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201638
Charts 38, 40, 42 and 44 show the total number of vacancies, the number of skills shortage vacancies,
FE course completions and apprenticeship completions for each of the 15 pathways in D2N2 in
2015/16.
Charts 39, 41, 43 and 45 show how the mismatch for each pathway has evolved between 2014/15 and
2015/16.
Analysis at the level of the 15 pathways is useful for a number of reasons. Principally, it helps to
account for the fact that there is inevitably some leakage between similar secondary occupation
groups. For example, while most people on completion of a business FE course will go into occupations
within the business and related associate professionals secondary group, some will go into
occupations within the general administrative occupations secondary group. Thus, the business and
administrative pathway outlined below accounts for this.
38 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
£13,190
£18,850
£19,090
£19,710
£20,180
£22,320
£24,000
£24,200
£27,520
£27,620
£28,370
£28,410
£30,650
£35,950
£36,950
£0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000
Hair and beauty
Social care
Catering & Hospitality
Childcare & education
Agriculture, environmental and animal care
Health & Science
Transport & logistics
Business & Administrative
Engineering & Manufacturing
Legal, finance & accounting
Creative & Design*
Sales, marketing and procurement
Construction
Protective services*
Digital
*<200 postings
45
According to the data, the sales, marketing and procurement pathway has the largest deficit of course
completions relative to job vacancies. However, as this pathway is closely alligned to the sales and
retail secondary occupation group, the same points outlined regarding that mismatch apply here,
principally regarding the likelihood that many of these roles can and will be filled by people without
specific FE course qualifications.
Chart 38: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1639
39 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
11,360
2,930 1,260 1,040
8,070
2,070 270 1,000
4,580
1,400 1,000 1,090
4,420
1,180 180 130
8,530
2,210
10 360
6,420
1,680
680 480
6,050
1,780 480 500
3,440
910 170 110
1,910
490
- -
2,040
540
140 30
1,210
380 160
-
1,140
300 90 40
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Sales, marketing andprocurement
Business & Administrative Engineering &Manufacturing
Legal, finance & accounting
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
46
As shown in charts 30 and 32, the difference between course completions and job vacancies has
increased across every pathway for which there were more completions than vacancies. This has been
caused by strong jobs growth across the board, matched by a near universal decline in courses.
Sales, marketing and procurement vacancies grew by 55%, stronger than the vacancy growth of 44%
for business and administrative. Vacancy growth for engineering and manufacturing and legal, finance
& accounting was 40% and 48% rspectively. FE course completions all fell, by between 2% and 24%.
Chart 39: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1640
40 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-12,730
-2,320
-10,220
-1,710
-6,610
-690
-5,480
-1,040
-20,540
-4,360
-15,440
-3,190
-10,220
-1,930
-8,560
-1,970
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
-
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Sales, marketing andprocurement Business & Administrative
Engineering &Manufacturing Legal, finance & accounting
2014/15 2015/16
47
For the digital pathway, there were around 7,700 more courses than vacancies, falling to 1,660 for
skills shortage vacancies.
Chart 40: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1641
41 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
3,750
870 60 60
2,180
700 1,470
510
3,300
1,540
530 360
2,070
720 300
830
1,570
1,060
630 170
4,370
1,390 410
310
1,850
840
360 40
1,380
470
130
190
870
440
20
20
950
300 140
-
240
110
70
10
210
70
10
-
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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cesh
ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
nti
cesh
ips
Digital Construction Transport & logistics Catering & Hospitality
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
48
Chart 41: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015/1642
42 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-4,910
-870 -1,420
1,940
-3,230
-940
-1,800
-30
-7,690
-1,660
-5,500
-370
-4,420
-1,540
-3,240
-830
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
-
2,000
4,000
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Digital Construction Transport & logistics Catering & Hospitality
2014/15 2015/16
49
Chart 42: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1643
43 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
2,310
440 470
1,150 1,500
330 620
270
1,390
290 680
170 70 20 30 10
1,720
330
890
640
2,090
460
660
460
1,490
300
1,130
230 70 20 90
410
80
30
50
730
150
50
-
710
140
10
30 10
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000To
tal V
acan
cies
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Social care Childcare & education Health & Science Protective services
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
50
The only pathway to enjoy an increase in FE course completions was childcare and education, with 3%
growth. This was, however, more than countered by the 39% growth in vacancies over the same
period.
Chart 43: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 2014-15 – 2015-1644
44 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
-1,090
1,360
-1,810
620
-470
1,450
90 180
-3,060
540
-3,010
370
-1,780
1,080
-50
80
-3,500
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
All SSV All SSV All SSV All SSV
Social care Childcare & education Health & Science Protective services
2014/15 2015/16
51
The largest potential oversupply of FE courses relative to job vacancies is for creative and design,
with 1,920 more courses than job vacancies. However, as stated elsewhere, many of these courses
can be classed as foundation courses, meaning they are a first step towards higher level jobs in the
future. Therefore, it is likely that the number that has completed these courses will fall by the time
they actual come to compete for these types of jobs.
Chart 44:: Total vacancies, skills shortage vacancies, FE course completions and apprenticeship
completions by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 2015/1645
45 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code, UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
140 30 380
180 170 40
920
300 390 110
330 10
120 20
480
60 260
60
550
200 380
110
2,480
20 50
10
40
30
20
-
230
60
110
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Tota
l Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
pre
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ips
Job
Vac
anci
es
SSV
s
FE C
ou
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Ap
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ips
Agriculture, environmental and animalcare
Hair and beauty Creative & Design
Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4 and 5
52
Chart 45: The number of FE course completions at levels 2, 3, 4 and 5 minus the number of total
vacancies / minus skills shortage vacancies (SSV) by pathway, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 2014/15 – 2015-/1646
46 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of: Skills Funding Agency Data Cube; Burning Glass job vacancy data by 4 digit SOC code; Labour Force Survey UK data on highest qualification of workers by 4 digit SOC code; UKCES Employer Skills Survey.
730 860
1,490
1,730
2,390
2,940
610
830 1,000
1,370
1,920
2,650
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
All SSV All SSV All SSV
Agriculture, environmental andanimal care
Hair and beauty Creative & Design
2014/15 2015/16
53
Sectors
Sectors – All
The following section provides an analysis of the sectoral composition of vacancies in the D2N2 area.
Note that the sector refers to the employer and so any given occupation can be in any sector. For
example, while most chef jobs will logically be in the hotels and restaurants sector, it is possible that
there will be at least some in all other sectors.
As shown in chart 46, employers in the health and social work sector provided the greatest share of
vacancies, at 24% of the total. More than half of all health and social work vacancies were for either
nursing and midwifery professionals, care workers or health professionals, with 27%, 14% and 10%
respectively of the sector total. As such, the majority of health and social work sector vacancies are
for professional vacancies, as opposed to technical.
Manufacturing was the second most important sector – and the largest non-public sector – for job
vacancies in D2N2 in 2016, accounting for 17% of the total. The composition of manufacturing
vacancies was more widely spread than for those in the health and social work sector. No secondary
occupation group provided more than 1 in 10 of the sector’s jobs, with engineering professionals, sales
and retail and metals, tools and instruments manufacturing all with 10%.
Unsurprisingly, job vacancies for employers in the education sector were dominated by teaching and
education professionals, which accounted for almost half of all vacancies in the sector.
Chart 46: Share of job vacancies by sector in Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
201647
47 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
0%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
5%
7%
8%
14%
15%
17%
24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
Public administration
Electricity, gas and water
Financial services
Information and communications
Arts, entertaintment, recreation and other service…
Construction
Transport and storage
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Hotels and restaurants
Business services
Education
Manufacturing
Health and social work
54
Breaking this down into local authority areas, while the sectoral structure of vacancies is broadly
similar for Derby and Nottingham, there are some important variations. The data suggests that the
education sector is a significantly more important source of employer demand in Nottingham than in
Derby, likely due to the former’s large universities, which may also explain the greater prevalence of
professional roles in Nottingham shown in chart 5.
Additionally, employers in the manufacturing sector in Derby provided 22% of job vacancies,
compared to just 12% in Nottingham. This reflects the historical importance of car, planes and trains
manufacturing in Derby, a contemporary example of which being the £1 billion bombardier contract
to build Crossrail trains in the city.
In both towns, employers in the health and social work sector provided a significant share of
vacancies. In Nottingham, it claimed the largest share, but it was the second largest in Derby, narrowly
behind manufacturing.
Chart 47: Share of job vacancies by sector in Derby and Nottingham, 201648
48 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
0%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
3%
7%
7%
7%
22%
13%
12%
22%
0%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
7%
7%
12%
14%
19%
24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Agriculture
Mining and quarrying
Public administration
Electricity, gas and water
Financial services
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service…
Information and communications
Construction
Transport and storage
Hotels and restaurants
Wholesale and retail trade
Manufacturing
Business services
Education
Health and social work
Nottingham
Derby
55
Sectors – Technical
Chart 48 shows the distribution of skills shortage vacancies across each sector. The business services
sector accounted for the largest amount of technical skills shortage vacancies in 2015 with 5,410.
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles was second with 3,390 and health and social work
was third with 3,330.
Chart 48 also shows how technical skills shortage vacancies for each sector are shared between the
five primary technical groupings (core technical, semi-technical, privately funded training, public
sector technical and technical – advanced). As can be seen, the technical skills shortage vacancies are
predominantly core technical and semi-technical for every sector, other than health and social work
and arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities, where technical public sector jobs
make up a greater share.
Chart 48: The number of skills shortage vacancies for roles in the five technical primary groups by
sector of the employer, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201549
The below charts outline the nature of vacancies within sectors that are identified in chart 39 above
as having an abundance of technical skills shortages. Note, this uses burning glass data and the
vacancies are not necessarily due to skills shortages.
49 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Note, the figures here have been annualised using annual data from Burning Glass, since the UKCES question asks respondents whether they ‘currently’ have vacancies.
-
190
310
330
1,090
1,200
1,590
1,660
1,970
2,140
2,260
3,080
3,330
3,390
5,410
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Mining and quarrying
Electricity, gas and water supply
Agriculture
Financial services
Education
Information and communications
Hotels and restaurants
Transport and storage
Public administration
Construction
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Other Service…
Manufacturing
Health and social work
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Business services
Core technical
Semi-technical
Public sector
Privately funded training
Technical - other
56
Business services
19% of technical vacancies in the business services sector were for human resources and careers
advisors, 17% were for sales and retail and 10% for contact centre and customer services operations.
It is likely that addressing technical skills shortages in the business services sector would require
tackling the skills shortages for these three secondary occupation groups, which between them
account for around 46% of the sector’s technical vacancies.
The mismatch analaysis can be seen on page 26 for human resources and careers advisors, 21 for sales
and retail and 21 for contact centre and customer services operations. Note that the mismatch is done
for each secondary occupation group for employers in all sectors, because FE courses and
apprenticeships are not sector specific.
Chart 49: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the business services sector by
occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201650
Other51
IT engineers and technicians 4%
Legal associate professionals and secretaries 4%
Marketing associate professionals 3%
Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers 3%
Engineering and planning/process/production technicians 2%
Artists and designers 2%
Estate agents and auctioneers 2%
Business and related associate professionals Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing
Public services and NGO associate professionals
2% 2% 2%
50 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 51 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Human resources and careers advisers
19%
Sales and retail17%
Contact centre and customer service
occupations10%
General administative occupations
8%
Accountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisors
6%
Other*40%
57
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
The second largest sector in terms of number of technical skills shortage vacancies was wholesale and
retail trade; repair of motor vehicles. Chart 41 below breaks down the structure of all technical
vacancies within the sector. Sales and retail, mechanical technicians and maintenance and contact
centre and customer service occupations contain the highest shares of vacancies, with 38%, 19%
and 6% respectively.
The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen for sales and retail on page 21, for mechanical
technicians and maintenance on page19, and for contact centre and customer service occupations on
page 21.
Chart 50: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the wholesale and retail trade;
repair of motor vehicles sector by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 201652
Other53
IT engineers and technicians 3%
Business and related associate professionals 3%
Manufacturing operatives 2%
Beauticians and related occupations 2%
52 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 53 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Sales and retail38%
Mechanical technicians and
maintenance19%
Contact centre and customer service
occupations6%
Accountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisors
5%
General administative occupations
5%
Other27%
58
Health and social work
The third largest sector in terms of number of technical skills shortage vacancies was health and social
work. Within the sector, the care workers secondary group was responsible for the highest share of
total technical vacancies with 32%, followed by medical, dental and health technicians and general
administrative occupations with 20% and 13% respectively.
The mismatch analaysis (for employers across all sectors) can be seen on page 25 for care workers,
19 for medical, dental and health technicians and 21 for general administrative occupations.
Chart 51: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the health and social work sector
by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201654
Other55
Sales and retail 4%
Public services and NGO associate professionals 3%
IT engineers and technicians 3%
Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors 3%
Beauticians and related occupations 2%
Human resources and careers advisers 2%
Contact centre and customer service occupations 2%
54 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 55 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Care workers 32%
Medical, dental and health technicians
20%
General administative occupations
13%
Child, youth and community workers
6%
Other29%
59
Manufacturing
Chart 43 shows the breakdown of technical vacancies within the manufacturing sector. Again sales
and retail top the share of vacancies with 15%, followed by 14% for metals, tools and instruments
manufacturing and 12% for engineering and planning/process/production technicians.
The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen on page 17 for metals, tools and instruments
manufacturing and engineering and planning/process/production technicians.
Chart 52: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the manufacturing sector by
occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201656
Other57
General administrative occupations 5%
IT engineers and technicians 4%
Business and related associate professionals 3%
Contact centre and customer service occupations 2%
Stock control and distribution clerks 2%
Mechanical technicians and maintenance 2%
56 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 57 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Sales and retail15%
Metals, tools and instruments
manufacturing14%
Engineering and planning/process
/production technicians
Accountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisors
8%
Manufacturing operatives
7%
Electricians and electronic
trades/technicians/engineers
7%
Engineering Professionals
6%
Other31%
60
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities
Chart 44 shows the breakdown of technical vacancies within the arts, entertainment, recreation and
other service activities sector. 16% of technical vacancies in this sector were for hairdressers and
barbers, 15% were for sales and retail and 9% were for sports and fitness instructors and assistants.
The mismatch analaysis (across all sectors) can be seen on page 28 for hairdressers and barbers and
30 for sports and fitness instructors and assistants.
Chart 53: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the arts, entertainment,
recreation and other service activities sector by occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham
and Nottinghamshire, 201658
Other59
IT engineers and technicians 5%
Contact centre and customer service occupations 4%
Accountancy and finance technicians/analysts/advisors 4%
Cleaners and caretakers 3%
Marketing associate professionals 3%
Performing arts 2%
Public services and NGO associate professionals 2%
Beauticians and related occupations 2%
Medical, dental and health technicians 2%
Vocational and industrial trainers and instructors 2%
Engineering and planning/process/production technicians 2%
58 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 59 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Hairdressers and barbers
16%
Sales and retail15%
Sports and fitness instructors and
assistants9%
General administative occupations
9%Care workers
6%
IT engineers and technicians
5%
Other40%
61
Construction
In the construction sector, other than sales and retail, skilled drivers had the largest share of
technical vacancies with 12%, followed by engineering and planning/process/production technicians.
Chart 54: Share of technical job vacancies with employers in the construction sector by
occupation, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201660
Other61
Manufacturing operatives 4%
General administrative occupations 4%
Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers 3%
Marketing associate professionals 3%
Metals, tools and instruments manufacturing 3%
Engineering Professionals 2%
Human resources and careers advisers 2%
Business and related associate professionals 2%
60 Centre for Progressive Capitalism’s analysis of Burning Glass job vacancy data; occupation definitions are those developed by the Centre for the mismatch analysis; the industry sector is defined by Burning Glass using SIC codes 61 Tables are included where ‘other’ constitutes a share of 25% or more of the total. Only occupation groups with 2% or more are reported.
Sales and retail25%
Skilled drivers12%
Engineering and planning/process/production technicians
9%
Accountancy and finance
technicians/analysts/advisors
8%
Contact centre and customer service
occupations7%
IT engineers and technicians
5%
Other34%
62
Sectors – Professional
Chart 46 below shows the estimated number of skills shortage vacancies for professional roles for
each sector.
The professional definition includes 84% of the SOC ‘major group 2: professional occupations’ and 4%
of the SOC ‘major group 3: associate professional and technical occupations’.
The health and social work sector has the largest number of skills shortage vacancies for
professional roles with 5,670, followed by education with 2,540 and business services with 2,420.
Chart 55: The number of skills shortage vacancies for roles in the professional primary group
by sector of the employer, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201562
The below charts show the nature of vacancies within sectors that are identified in chart 45 above as
having an abundance of professional skills shortages. This uses burning glass data and the vacancies
are not necessarily due to skills shortages.
As explained on page 13, no attempt is made to link professional roles to graduate courses, as it is
highly likely that the links to the local labour market demands are far weaker and less direct. This is
due both to the greater movement of graduates out of the area after course completion and the large
variation in graduate course subject and eventual career path.
62 Centre for Progressive Capitalism analysis of the raw data from UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey, which surveyed 3,127 employer establishments across Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. Note, the figures here have been annualised using annual data from Burning Glass, since the UKCES question asks respondents whether they ‘currently’ have vacancies.
20
30
100
210
720
1,130
1,390
2,360
2,420
2,540
5,670
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Financial services
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Other Service…
Electricity, gas and water supply
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles
Construction
Public administration
Information and communications
Manufacturing
Business services
Education
Health and social work
63
Health and social work
The sector with the greatest number of professional skills shortage vacancies was health and social
work. Chart 47 details how professional vacancies are distributed across the sector.
By far the largest group was nursing and midwifery professionals, with 58% of the total, followed
by health professionals and therapy professionals with 22% and 9% respectively.
Chart 56: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the health and social work
sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
201663
63 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Nursing and Midwifery
Professionals58%
Health Professionals
22%
Therapy Professionals
9%
Other11%
64
Education
Unsurprisingly, the education sector was dominated by teaching and educational professionals, which
accounted for 86% of professional vacancies. No other occupation achieved more than a 4% share of
the total.
Business services
Professional vacancies in the business services sector were dominated by legal professionals and
authors, writers and translators, which between them accounted for more than half of the total.
Chart 57: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the business services sector by
secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201664
64 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Legal Professionals27%
Authors, writers and translators
24%
Information Technology and
Telecommunications Professionals
10%
Health Professionals8%
Engineering Professionals
7%
Architects, Town Planners and
Surveyors6%
Business, Research and Administrative
Professionals5%
Natural and Social Science Professionals
5%
Other8%
65
Manufacturing
Professional vacancies in the manufacturing sector were led by engineering professionals, with 38%
of the total. Business, research and administrative professionals accounted for 21%, with information
technology and telecommunications professionals on 17%.
Chart 58: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the manufacturing sector by
secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201665
65 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Engineering Professionals
38%
Business, Research and Administrative
Professionals21%
Information Technology and
Telecommunications Professionals
17%
Quality and Regulatory
Professionals8%
Natural and Social Science Professionals
6%
Architects, Town Planners and
Surveyors5%
Other5%
66
Information and communications
Unsurprisingly, the largest source of professional vacancies in the information and communications
sector was information technology and telecommunications professionals, with 54% of the total.
Chart 59: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the information and
communications sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and
Nottinghamshire, 201666
66 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Information Technology and
Telecommunications Professionals
54%
Business, Research and Administrative
Professionals23%
Engineering Professionals
6%
Other17%
67
Public administration
Professional vacancies were spread fairly evenly in the public administration sector, with 6 secondary
occupation groups having between a 9% and 14% share of the total.
Chart 60: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the public administration
sector by secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire,
201667
67 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Welfare Professionals
14%
Legal Professionals13%
Architects, Town Planners and
Surveyors11%
Business, Research and Administrative
Professionals11%
Information Technology and
Telecommunications Professionals
9%
Natural and Social Science
Professionals9%
Media Professionals7%
Teaching and Educational
Professionals6%
Other20%
68
Construction
Professional vacancies in the construction sector were predominantly in one of three secondary
occupation groups: engineering professionals (25%), architects, town planners and surveyors (24%)
and information technology and telecommunications professionals (18%).
Chart 61: Share of professional job vacancies with employers in the construction sector by
secondary occupation group, Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, 201668
68 Centre for Progressive Capitalism, Burning Glass job vacancy data
Engineering Professionals
25%
Architects, Town Planners and
Surveyors24%
Information Technology and
Telecommunications Professionals
18%
Business, Research and Administrative
Professionals12%
Teaching and Educational
Professionals5%
Other16%
69
Appendix – Methodology of the mismatch analysis
Level of data
The mismatch analysis was conducted at the lowest level possible for each aspect at the LEP level. This included analysing apprenticeships by the pathway chosen by each apprentice. For example, an apprenticeship in Engineering Manufacture (Craft and Technician) has 11 diverse pathways including: aerospace; fabrication and welding; and electrical and electronic engineering.
The mismatch analysis was conducted for technical roles only as professional roles are predominantly filled by university graduates.
The data sources used were:
College-based technical courses: Skills Funding Agency’s LEP Data Cube data on the number of completions by individual learning aim (based on all skills providers within the LEP).
Apprenticeships: Skills Funding Agency’s LEP Data Cube data on the number of completions by pathway chosen for each apprenticeship framework (based on all skills providers within the LEP).
Job vacancies: Burning Glass’ LEP level data on vacancies by four-digit SOC code.
Education level: Labour Force Survey’s (LFS) UK data by four-digit SOC code. Data are not available at the LEP level. Note, the LFS was used instead of Burning Glass’ data for advertised minimum education level as this specific part of their data is drawn from a small sample as only a small number of adverts specify this.
Skills shortages: UKCES’ 2015 Employer Skills Survey LEP-level skills shortages by 15 industry sectors, split by the ONS’s 9 broad occupation groups.
Scope of the demand-side analysis of technical vacancies
Vacancies are scraped from job posting websites. While all types of vacancies are considered, the
vast majority (~97%) are full time roles.
A technical occupation is any that on average is done by less than 30% graduates (as indicated by the
highest level of education identified in the labour force survey) and can be linked to relevant FE
courses or apprenticeships.
This is broken down into five primary technical groups:
Core-technical: these are technical occupations that are typically held by people with level 3
qualifications or above.
Semi-technical: these are occupations that are typically held by people with level 2
qualifications or below. While further education can lead to these occupations, it is also
possible that some people will enter them without having done an FE course or
apprenticeship, given the relatively low level of skill required.
Public sector technical: occupations that are predominantly in the public sector. Examples
include care workers and teaching and educational support assistants
Privately funded training: these are occupations which are not typically done by graduates,
but nor are they unskilled. They are occupations that are technical in nature but for which
publicly funded training is not commonly provided. An example is skilled drivers
70
Technical – advanced: these are occupations towards which FE can often provide a first step
or foundation qualification. Entry into these occupations straight from FE is not common.
They also include some occupations that are more advanced versions of those found in core-
technical Examples include artists and designers and engineering professionals.
In terms of the ONS Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) Hierarchy, the following were
included:
Roughly 16% of major group 2: professional occupations
Roughly 96% of major group 3: associate professional and technical occupations
All of major group 4: administrative and secretarial occupations
All of major group 5: skilled trades occupations
All of major group 6: caring, leisure and other service occupations
All of major group 7: sales and customer service occupations
Roughly 90% of major group 8: process, plant and machine operatives
The following major groups were not included:
Major group 1: managers, directors and senior officials
Major group 9: elementary occupations
Scope of the supply-side analysis
For the number of completions of college-based courses, only ‘education and training’, ‘traineeships’ and ‘community learning’ funded courses were included. The small number of courses funded via ‘workplace learning’ (which has largely been phased out in favour of apprenticeships) were excluded since trainees on this route are in employment. Only technical courses with a significant time commitment required for completion were included. This was defined as certificates (130 to 260 hours of learning) and diplomas (370 or more hours of learning). Awards, which can require as little as 10 hours of learning, were not included. AS and A-levels were also excluded given the report’s focus on technical education and training.
Calculating skills shortage vacancies
The UKCES Employer Skills Survey (ESS) raw data provides estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for each SOC major group. The estimates of SSV rates for the primary groups are a weighted average of the number of skills shortage vacancies for each SOC major group in the UKCES data divided by a weighted average of the number of vacancies for each SOC major group in the UKCES data. The UKCES Employer Skills Survey (ESS) raw data provides estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for each sector. It does not, however, provide estimates of skills shortage vacancy rates for individual occupations at the four digit SOC code level. Therefore, gauging the number of skills shortage vacancies for each secondary occupation group requires analysis of its sectoral composition. The skills shortage vacancy rate is thus the weighted average of all of the sectoral rates, based on how many vacancies the group has in each sector. This assumes a normal distribution of sector skills shortages across occupations. For example, 89% of vacancies in the skilled drivers secondary group were in the transport and storage sector. The transport and storage sector has a skills shortage rate of 54%, based on the ESS. Therefore,
71
the skills shortage rate of skilled drivers is heavily weighted towards this figure, with the final estimate being 51%.
Example mapping - Electricians and electronic trades/technicians/engineers
(secondary occupation group)
Jobs
Burning Glass job vacancy data
Labour Force Survey UK-level data on the existing workforce (used to apportion the total number of job vacancies to levels)
SOC code (4 digit)
SOC occupation (4 digit)
Degree or equivalent
(Level 6)
Higher education (Levels 4 and 5)
GCE A level or
equivalent (Level 3)
GCSE grades A*-C or
equivalent (Level 2)
No qualificatio
n
3112 Electrical and electronics technicians
1% 18% 61% 20% 0%
2123 Electrical engineers 16% 23% 46% 10% 5%
5241 Electricians and electrical fitters
2% 11% 64% 20% 3%
5249 Electrical and electronic trades n.e.c.
5% 14% 54% 22% 5%
5250
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades supervisors
2% 14% 59% 21% 5%
As the highest average education level is level 3 (57%), electricians and electronic
trades/technicians/engineers goes in the core technical primary group.
Apprenticeships
Skills Funding Agency LEP data cube
Framework Pathway
Electrotechnical All
Power industry All
Electrical and Electronic Servicing All
Electricity industry All
Engineering Manufacture - Electrical and Electronic Engineering
All
Engineering Technology Electrical/Electronics
Engineering Electrical and electronic engineering
Engineering Manufacture (Craft and Technician) Electrical and electronic engineering
FE courses
Skills Funding Agency LEP data cube
BTEC HNC Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)
72
BTEC HND Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical Installations (Buildings and Structures) (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical/Electronic Engineering (QCF)
Diploma in Electrotechnical Services (Electrical Maintenance) (QCF)
NVQ Diploma in Installing Electrotechnical Systems and Equipment (Buildings, Structures and the Environment)
Diploma in Providing Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical Installation (QCF)
Extended Diploma in Electrical/Electronic Engineering (QCF)
NVQ Diploma in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (QCF)
NVQ Diploma in Installing Electrotechnical Systems and Equipment (Buildings, Structures and the Environment) (QCF)
Certificate in Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technology (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission (Technical Knowledge) (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Wind Turbine Maintenance (Technical Knowledge) (QCF)
Diploma in Electronic, security and emergency systems (QCF)
NVQ Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Wind Turbine Operations and Maintenance (QCF)
Certificate in Installing, Testing and Ensuring Compliance of Electrical Installations in Dwellings (QCF)
Diploma in Installing Engineering Construction Plant and Systems Electrical (QCF)
BTEC HND Diploma in Electronic Engineering (QCF)
Certificate in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission Technical Knowledge (QCF)
Certificate in Knowledge of Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)
Certificate in Providing Electronic Security and Emergency Systems (QCF)
Certificate in Electrical Power Engineering - Distribution and Transmission Technical Knowledge (QCF)
NVQ Certificate in Highway Electrical Systems (QCF)
Diploma in Auto Electrical and Mobile Electrical Principles (QCF)
NVQ Diploma in Bus and Coach Engineering and Maintenance (Electrical) (QCF)
Diploma in Power Engineering (QCF)
Diploma in Electrical Power Engineering - Underground Cables (QCF)
BTEC HND Diploma in Electrical Engineering (QCF)
BTEC HNC Diploma in Electrical Engineering (QCF)