a report on the safety of mexico 2014 pp4s

MEXICO SAFETY REPORT May 1, 2014

Safety in Mexico A Statistical Report on Tourist and Ex-Pat Safety in Mexico


A Report on the Safety of Mexico

The purpose of this report is simply to bring some clarity to the issue of safety

while traveling or living in Mexico, and separate fact from fiction by using

verifiable statistics. Using hard numbers to tell the whole story, how safe (or

unsafe) it is to travel in Mexico can be determined objectively. Americans and

Canadians can then compare the dangers of traveling to Mexico – with a focus

on the Riviera Maya, Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum – to traveling and

living within the United States.

This Report on the Safety of Mexico© was written by Steve Didier. Steve is the

Chief Marketing Officer for American Realty in Playa del Carmen and has lived

in the Riviera Maya for over a year at the time of this writing. He has been

involved in the real estate industry for 14 years and having traveled

throughout Mexico and currently residing in the Riviera Maya, has an intimate

knowledge of the subject matter.

All of the research and information has been compiled to get a clear picture of

what is really happening in Mexico. There are a myriad of mixed reports from

journalists and no shortage of sensational headlines regarding the issue of

safety in Mexico and very little objectivity. By looking at Mexico as a whole

and then digging deeper into the numbers in the tourist areas specifically, the

report will give a complete overview of the issue of safety in Mexico.

http://www.playapropertiesforsale.com/


MEXICO 2014

Much has been made of Mexico’s drug wars in the media. There is a war of sorts happening in

Mexico, not only between the Government and the Cartels, but also between rival Cartel

factions as well. Since this war began in 2006, there has been a dramatic rise in the number of

violent deaths in Mexico.

The US State Department has issued travel advisories for several regions throughout Mexico in

response to this, particularly along the US – Mexico border. Many cities along the border are

hot spots for drug related violence as rival Cartels vie for control of the trafficking routes into

the United States, and the various law enforcement agencies attempt to stop the flow of illegal

drugs.


Summary

Statistically speaking, you are far more likely to be a victim of homicide while residing in the

United States than you are while vacationing in Mexico.

The results stated throughout this report have been calculated by examining the number of

American tourists to visit Mexico within the given time period, as well as the numbers of

homicides involving US citizens.

The numbers* – Mexico compared to the United States

Since 2006, approximately 109 innocent Americans have been victims of homicide in Mexico.

The estimated number of American citizens that have traveled to Mexico in that time span is

approximately 80 million. Here is a brief breakdown of the danger associated with a trip to

Mexico:

You are 25 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Orlando than in Mexico;

418 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya and surrounding areas specifically.

You are 48 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Chicago than in Mexico;


You are 54 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Miami than in Mexico;


You are 107 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in New Orleans than in

Mexico; 1179 times more likely than in the Riviera Maya & surrounding areas

specifically.

You are 129 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in Detroit than in Mexico;


*Numbers calculated from 2012 FBI Crime Statistics


Perspective

The first thing to note about these numbers is that nearly all of the murders involving

Americans occurred in known Cartel hot spots, namely on the US-Mexico border and along

known drug trafficking routes. These locations are NOT popular tourist areas and are for the

most part, are located far away from the areas that most Americans visit.

As of this writing, the US State Department has issued a travel warning for certain provinces in

Mexico, but states in the travel warning that the advisory is region specific. It also notes that

Americans are not specifically targeted.

“Millions of U.S. citizens safely visit Mexico each year for study, tourism, and

business, including more than 150,000 who cross the border every day. The

Mexican government dedicates substantial resources to protect visitors to major

tourist destinations, and there is no evidence that Transnational Criminal

Organizations (TCOs) have targeted U.S. visitors or residents based on their

nationality.” (www. travel.state.gov)

According to the data, you are more far likely to die of a bee sting, being struck by lightning or

drowning in your own bathtub than of becoming a homicide victim in Mexico as a tourist. (See

page 10 )

Statistics also show very clearly that nearly every single murder committed in the United States

happens between American Citizens only, and very similarly, homicides in Mexico occur

primarily between Mexican Citizens only. (GRAPH 1)

Homicides in Mexico 2006-2012

Total Homicides - 120,747

Homicides involving US Citizens - 514

http://travel.state.gov/content/passports/english/alertswarnings/mexico-travel-warning.html


Between 2006 and 2012, a total of 514 US citizens have been killed in all of Mexico. Some of

these deaths were not even remotely caused – either directly or indirectly – by the drug war or

cartels. For the sake of worst-case scenario calculations and for simplicity, we will assume that

all of them were, in some way, shape or form.

Over 99% of all the drug war murders occurred only between Mexican citizens. Of the less than

1% of homicides that did involve a US citizen, many of those were dual citizenship holders, i.e.

holding both Mexican and American citizenship.

A Closer Look

Of those 514 American murder victims, approximately 109 of them are assumed to be

innocent*, with the remainder all having been involved with Mexican drug cartels in some

aspect – drug trafficking/production, etc.

The raw data shows that an American citizen is over 16 times more likely to be murdered while

residing in the United States than while on vacation in Mexico – even when you include the

violent border towns.

When you start looking at data from the popular tourist destinations, then the odds go down

considerably. They go down even further if your destination choice is the Yucatan Peninsula,

including Merida, Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Cozumel and Tulum. These are some of Mexico’s

(and the world’s) top tourist destinations and your chance of being murdered in the United

States becomes a staggering 275 times more likely than in these tourist hot spots. (GRAPH 2)

0

0.001

0.002

0.003

0.004

0.005

.00496% at home

.00031% in Mexico

Ch

ance

of

Dyi

ng

US vs. on vacation in Mexico

Chance of Dying in the US vs. Dying in Mexico


By taking the number of homicides that occurred in the US in 2009 against the population of the US in 2009, we can calculate the percentage chance of a US citizen being murdered in his/her own country. We can then divide the approximate number of innocent victims by the years of the drug-war to give an estimate of innocent deaths in 2009. This number is then divided by the number of tourists that visited Mexico throughout 2009. Any homicide victims in Quintana Roo are assumed innocent (for the sake of this report). Data also shows the chance of a US citizen being murdered in the US varies incredibly depending on the location. This fact may seem obvious but is often forgotten. It is very important to remember this in regards to Mexico or any other location in the world for that matter.

Deaths by Location

The location of which US citizens were murdered is very important when interpreting news headlines concerning the drug-war in Mexico. Most of these deaths occur in either border-towns that have large amounts of illegal drug-related activity or in locales noted for the greatest amounts of narcotic production. (GRAPH 3)

Deaths of Americans by Region/State (data from 2006 – 2010)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Other (Total of other 24 States)

Total in Guerrero State

Total in Sinoloa State

Total in Sonora State

Total in Jalisco State

Total in Tamaulipas State

Nuevo Laredo

Total Baja California State

Tijuana (Baja California)

Total in Chihuahua State

Cuidad Juarez

American Deaths by State

American Deaths by State


It is also noteworthy that the areas where most cartel related deaths concerning Mexicans take place are in fact the same locations in which most of the homicides involving Americans occur - namely the Border States of Chihuahua (primarily Cuidad Juarez), Tamaulipas (primarily Nuevo Laredo), Baja California (primarily Tijuana), Sinaloa and Sonora. Approximately 70% of the 120,747 total recorded drug-related homicides in Mexico committed since 2006 have taken place in only 85 of the 2,438 municipalities (about 3%*) in Mexico. Studies suggest at least 89% of the fatalities are suspected gang members killed in turf wars between the different organizations that compete for control of trafficking routes into the US. Since the locations with the highest mortality rates are not very popular tourist destinations it can be safely assumed the US citizens in these locations are far more likely to be involved in drug-related activities as can be seen by graph 3, since only approximately 109 of all American homicide victims were considered innocent to begin with. This data shows it is incorrect for media sources to report American deaths in Mexico under the pretence that they are automatically innocent law-abiding citizens. If the locations that the murders take place match, there is a much higher chance of them being active cartel members.

Digging Deeper

The data establishes that the location of any given US citizen in Mexico is a determining factor to their survivability concerning homicide. The data can be further broken down to show even further reduction of the likelihood of becoming a murder victim in the state of Quintana Roo, and more specifically; Cancun, Playa del Carmen and the entire Riviera Maya, over the course of the entire drug-war from 2006-2010. (GRAPH 4)

Innocent American Deaths in Mexico 2006 - 2013

Total Deaths

Deaths in Cancun


Popular Vacation Destinations

Homicide rates per 100,000 for the year 2010-2011

HOMICIDES PER 100,000 IN POPULAR VACATION DESTINATIONS 2012 (* www.unodc.org) (GRAPH 5)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

St. Kitts & Nevis

Belize

Jamaica

Bahamas

Brazil

St. Lucia

Mexico

Per 100,000

Per 100,000

http://www.unodc.org/


Fast Facts

OVER 150,000 AMERICANS CROSS THE BORDER INTO MEXICO EVERY SINGLE DAY.

MEXICO CITY IS ROUGHLY THE SIZE OF LONDON AND PARIS PUT TOGETHER.

SWEDEN AND SWITZERLAND HAVE A HIGHER HOMICIDE RATE THAN MEXICO (2010)

THE ASSAULT RATE IS 5 TIMES HIGHER IN THE UNITED STATES THAN IN MEXICO.

More Likely Ways to Die*

Let’s draw some comparisons to other relatively unlikely ways that you could perish.

Accidental Poisoning – 1 in 16,000¹

Drowning – 1 in 65,000²

Falling out of Bed – 1 in 660,000²

Drowning in Bathtub – 1 in 800,000³

Flesh-Eating Bacteria – 1 in 2.5 million⁴

Struck by Lightning – 1 in 4.2 million³

Bee Sting – 1 in 6 million³

Earthquake – 1 in 11 million³

Terrorist Attack – 1 in 20 million⁵

Chance of becoming a homicide victim while vacationing in Mexico’s most popular tourist State,

Quintana Roo (which includes Playa del Carmen and Cancun)... approximately 1 in 11.4 million

*See pages 14-15 for references


Editorial

I have vacationed on and off in Mexico since around 1998 and I’ve lived in Mexico for some

time now, having visited many different major cities including Tijuana, Rosarito, Monterrey,

Nuevo Laredo, Veracruz, Tampico, Villahermosa, Chetumal, Chiapas, Cancun and Playa del

Carmen (my current residence). Most, except for Tijuana and Rosarito, have been since the

“drug war” started. I also remember clearly everything I read online while planning my move

down from the US. If I were to have believed everything I read, the streets should be awash in

blood, with severed heads on every street corner and the country itself burning from coast to

coast.

That simply isn’t the case.

That begs the question – since it isn’t true, why would the new outlets paint such a bleak

picture of unmitigated violence and danger? There are several factors involved. First and

foremost, we have to remember that there are two major motivations for publishing a news

story… ratings and income generation. They are businesses and sensationalism drives ratings

and ratings make money.

The American public has been inundated with headlines for years now featuring nothing but

death and destruction south of the border. An unfortunate side effect of these headlines that

is the audiences of these news outlets develop a skewed sense of reality that they now accept

as truth.

Don’t simply take my experience at face value – look at the numbers and really look at the

analysis in the preceding pages. When you take the time to look at the hard reality, all of the

fear mongering regarding the safety issues in Mexico are completely and utterly baseless.

When you look at Graph 5 and see the wide disparity in terms of homicides between Mexico

and those places that are media darlings and promoted as safe tropical paradises – such as St.

Lucia, the Bahamas and St. Kitts/Nevis – it becomes apparent that there is manipulation going

on. You are nearly 4 times more likely to be the victim of a homicide in St. Kitts than in Mexico!

There is another, somewhat more disturbing factor in the media sensationalism of Mexico. A

cursory look into the subject shows that there are both strong political motivations and strong

financial motivations to portray Mexico as a violent, dangerous place. Politicians use it as a tool

when promoting their agenda on immigration reform and there are strong political lobbyists in

the corner of the United States vacation industry. Wherever there is money to be made or an


agenda to further, you can be certain that there will be manipulation of the facts, if not outright

lies.

Stating that all of Mexico is unsafe is as accurate as saying that you should never go to rural

Iowa because there were a record number of shootings in Detroit. It makes no sense to paint

an entire country with one brushstroke and feel that it’s accurate.

If you are considering a vacation or a move to Mexico, simply don’t get involved in the drug

trafficking or manufacturing business, stay out of the known danger zones and use common

sense. The likelihood of you becoming a murder victim is so small, it’s negligible.

Statistically speaking, you should be far more worried about dying from a flesh eating bacteria

since the chances are 450% more likely than being a homicide case. And 1400% higher chance

of you drowning in your bathtub at home as opposed to being killed in the drug war on

vacation.

You aren’t scared of your bathtub, right?


Conclusion

The numbers show that Mexico is, in fact, a very safe place to vacation, visit and live.

If you take anything away from this report, it should be that Mexico is much safer than the

media would lead you to believe. There can be danger anywhere you travel and I’m not saying

that you could never have a problem – what I am saying is that if you are not doing things you

should not be doing and not involved with people that you shouldn’t be involved with, you can

be 100% safe while having an amazing time with your family.

You can enjoy weather and beaches that are among the best in the world, meet amazing

people and explore ruins of ancient past civilizations. You can indulge in amazing cuisines from

the area, experience extraordinary nightlife and pamper yourself in some of the most luxurious

all-inclusive resorts that the world has to offer. Not to mention the wildlife, adventure tours,

unparalleled diving and snorkeling and unique attractions such as the cenotes – all within a few

hour plane flight from anywhere in the continental United States.

Over a million Americans have pulled up stakes and moved to Mexico on a full or part time

basis. It is an incredible place to work and live or vacation, with a rich culture and some of the

friendliest people you will ever meet.

Take the US travel advisories seriously, use common sense, avoid the areas known for drug

cartel activity and enjoy your experience in this beautiful country!!

Steve Didier

CMO, American Realty




References

References and all un-cited calculations within this document have been made using data from

the following sources:

Graph 1

http://www2.fbi.gov

http://www.blog.chron.com

http://www.travel.state.gov

Graph 2

http://www2.fbi.gov


http://www.unodc.org

http://city-data.com/

Graph 3

http://www.unwto.org

http://www2.fbi.gov

http://www.blog.chron.com


Graph 4

http://www2.fbi.gov


Graph 5

http://howsafeismexico.com/

www.unodc.org

http://www2.fbi.gov/

http://www.blog.chron.com/

http://www.travel.state.gov/




http://city-data.com/

http://www.unwto.org/


http://www.blog.chron.com/




http://howsafeismexico.com/



References (cont)

1. http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com

2. http://www.nationmaster.com

3. http://www.bnet.com

4. http://www.healthlinkbc.ca

5. http://www.associatedcontent.com

Steve can be contacted through American Realty in Playa del Carmen for any questions.


http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/

http://www.nationmaster.com/

http://www.bnet.com/

http://www.healthlinkbc.ca/

http://www.associatedcontent.com/



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