a score-card approach to investing in sub-saharan africa · sustained political and economic...

Investment Research

www.danskebank.com/CI

Assistant Analyst

Nicolai Pertou RingkøbingFX [email protected]

A Score-Card Approach to Investing in

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chief Analyst

Jakob ChristensenHead of International Macro and Emerging Markets Research+45 45 12 [email protected]

31 August 2017

Investment Research Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 51 of this reportwww.danskebank.com/CI

2www.danskebank.com/CI

A score-card approach to investing in Sub-Saharan Africa

• An increasing number of investors are starting to look to the African continent for investment opportunities…

• …for good reason. Apart from abundant natural resources, the continent is enjoying some of the highest economic growth rates in the world, boosting the purchasing power of 1bn citizens.

• But African countries also have a myriad of cultural, economic and political differences, making it a challenging place to do business.

• To guide companies, we have developed a quantitative scorecard covering all the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), ranking them according to their market potential and riskiness.

• The scorecard relies on a series of macroeconomic, structural, political and socio-economic indicators. We intend to update the score-card twice a year

• From an operational point of view, Danske Bank has decades-long experience in helping customers manage risk and payment flows from trade and investment in the African continent.


Key findings

• Despite recent headwinds, Sub-Saharan Africa is still expected to be one of the fastest growing regions in the World in 2016-18.

• There are troubles among the ‘big-three’: Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, although the two former two are making progress in tackling the oil price shock…

• …while growth in oil-importing SSA countries (excluding South Africa) is holding up surprisingly well.

• Better governance and increasing stability, regional integration (notably in Eastern and Southern Africa), population growth, and demand from China support growth, but large fiscal and current account deficits are a key concern.

• Our risk-reward score-card model favours Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Namibia, and Mauritius. These markets have a total population of 35m and an average expected growth rate of 4.8% over the next four years.

• Other attractive but slightly more risky market are Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Senegal, Seychelles and Uganda, with a total population of 297m, a middle class comprising about 14% of the population and an average expected growth rate of 5.4% over the next four years.


Outline

(1) The SSA market in a global context

(2) A score-card analysis for Africa

(3) Types of Danske Bank client assistance in SSA

(4) Appendix: update on key African economies


The SSA market in a global context


The African market offers significant potential…

Source: GDP and population, IMF WEO 2016; Area, World Bank 2008

SSA has one of the world’s biggest markets when it comes to

population size…

…furthermore, living standards have improved considerably over

the past decade


…but still catching up to do compared to the rest of the world

• The advanced economies’ share of world GDP has declined sharply over past two decades.

• Asian countries (led by China) have rapidly been gaining shares, especially since the early 2000s.

• African countries have gained a marginally higher share (increasing from 2.4% in 2000 to 3.15% in 2015), but are still the smallest region economically.

• Note that other EM regions, such as Eastern Europe and South America, have lost shares.

Source: IMF WEO, October 2015


Oil-importing SSA countries are expected to be among the

fastest growing in the world in 2017-18

• Despite headwinds from falling commodity prices, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be among of the fastest growing regions in the world in 2016-18.

• Troubles among the ‘big-three’ (Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa) are dragging down the continent’s average.

• Growth in oil-importing SSA countries (excluding South Africa) is holding up surprisingly well, it being the second fastest growing region in the world. Source: IMF WEO April 2017


Eastern and selected Western African countries are expected to

see the fastest growth

Source: IMF WEO April 2017

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IMF GDP forecast* (2016-2018 avg)% y/y

*Based on IMF WEO update from April 2017


What is driving growth in oil-importing SSA countries?

• Better governance and increasing political and economic stability

• Regional integration (notably in Eastern and Southern Africa)

• Continuing demand from China

• Population growth

Risk factors

• Large fiscal and current account deficits, notably in commodity producing countries hit by recent terms of trade shock

• Possible slowdown in China in years ahead

• Religiously motivated terror in some countries


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East Asia & Pacifc

Middle East & North Africa

Eastern Europe & Central Asia

* IAM assessment

● Multi-party

– Competitive 72%

– Flawed 21%

Sustained political and economic reforms

Source: Doing Business database, May 2009

Growth of democracy: % of African countriesCountries that made at least one positive reform in 2008/9 (%)

Source: African Elections Database, Freedom House, The World

Fact book, Polity IV Country Reports 2006, Investec Asset

Management analysis, May 2008

● The spread of democracy in Africa is

improving sovereign governance.

● Over 75% of African countries are now

functioning democracies, up from c.12% in

the late 1980s. Nigeria is the most recent

example of peaceful democratic transition

and Kenya also completed elections.

● Governments are improving infrastructure

and creating an enabling business

environment.

Sub-Saharan Africa: regimes by type, 1946-2011

Source: Monty G. Marshall, Benjamin R. Cole. 2009. ‘Global Report 2009, Conflict,

Governance, and State Fragility.’ Center for Systemic Peace, Severn, Maryland


What caused the change in African fortunes? Peace!

1970s 1980s 1990s 2011

Armed Conflict

Peace

Source: African Analyst, Investec Asset Management, September 2011


Deepening economic integration bodes well for sustained

African growth, notably for land-locked countries

Cross-border financial intermediation

increasing sharply

Trade with China has increased but so

has intra-Africa trade (USDbn)

Source: UN comtrade

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

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China

Brazil, India, Korea, Russia and Turkey

United States

Intra-Africa


Business environment is increasingly important after the

collapse of commodity prices

Source: World Bank’s regional Doing Business Survey for Sub-Saharan Africa 2016

Eastern and Southern African countries are most conducive to doing business.

Central and many Western African countries fare worse


Demography suggests labour-force growth ahead

Source: UN


Risk factors to watch


Several countries vulnerable to twin deficits

• Fiscal and current account imbalances rather large in some significant SSA countries (Kenya, Zambia, Namibia, Angola and Cameroon), possibly requiring macro-economic adjustments.

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Current Account 2016 Fiscal deficit 2016

% of GDP

Source: Macrobond financials


The Chinese connection is strong for several SSA countries

Note: FDI is total FDI inflows from China to a particular SSA country in % of the total FDI inflows into the that country, while

trade is the exports to China of the individual SSA country relative to the total export of that country

Source: WTO, UNCTAD, Danske Bank estimates

•China holding up well until now, but in our view, the financial risks in the Chinese economy are growing.•Although it is not our base case, an outright financial crisis could happen over the next few years which would sent shock waves through the global economy, including the SSA countries.

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FDI, 2013

Trade, 2014

% of country total


Religiously motivated terror is a serious risk in several SSA

countries

Source: Institute for Economics and Peace and Danske Bank

• A high terror risk weighs on foreign investor sentiment and the tourist sector.

• Nigeria and Kenya among the most risky countries.

• Southern African countries are largely free of terror risks.


A score-card analysis for Africa


Our risk-reward analysis: basic principles

• Approach. We link the attractiveness of markets in terms of potential demand growth with possible risk factors facing investors.

• Demand growth is not only a function of expected GDP growth but also the size of the economies, the size of the middle class and broader welfare indicators.

• Risks facing investors are a mixture of economic, political, security and business risks.

• The challenge is to find appropriate data and define the benchmark for defining high or low risk and demand growth.


Ranking attractiveness of SSA markets: a risk-reward approach

Reward(Demand)

Size

Potential

Quality

Growth Risks

Economic

Political

security

Business

Market attractiveness

Source: Danske Bank


• Size of middle class (%)

• UN human development index

• Size of GDP (US$)

• Expected economic growth 2016-18

Growth Size

PotentialQuality

•Terrorism index

•Corruption•Doing business

quality

•Democratic institutions

•Civil wars

•Macro risks (inflation, debt, deficits)

•Growth volatility

•Commodity dependence

Economic Political

SecurityBusiness

Potential demand Potential risks

Measuring risks and market potential across countries

Source: Danske Bank


Benchmarks for each demand and risk criterion

Category Subcategory Variable Measure

Reward Good Medium Bad

Growth Expected GDP growth 2016-2020 Percent >5% 2.5-5% <2.5%Size Nominal GDP 2015 billion USD >50bn$ 10-50bn$ <10bn$Quality UN Human development index 0-1. 0 worst, 1 best >0.6 0.4-0.6 <0.4Potential Size of middle class Percent of total population >15% 7.5-15% <7.5%

Risk

Economic Inflation Percent <5% 5-10% >10%Public debt Percent of GDP <20% 20-50% >50%Budget deficit Percent of GDP >0% -3-0% <-3%Current account deficit Percent of GDP >0% -3-0% <-3%Volatility Std dev of GDP growth 2000-2016 <2 2-5 >5Commodity dependence Commodity exports in percent of GDP <0% 0-15% >15%

Political Freedom house score Free, Partly free, or Not free Free Partly free Not freeCivil war register Number of incidents <100 100-1,000 >1,000

Business Transparency international corruption 0-100. 0 worst, 100 best >50 25-50 <25Ease of doing business indicator Ranking. 189 worst, 1 best <100 100-150 >150

Security Global terrorism index 0-10. 10 worst, 0 best <2 2-6 >6

Benchmark

Source: Danske Bank


Overview of individual markets’ potential and risk factors

CountryTotal

market potential

Growth (2016-20)

Size(GDP US$bn)

Quality(UN HDI)

Potential(Midle class %)

Total risk

Economic(Indicator)

Political(Indicator)

Business(Indicator)

Security

Angola 0 1.2 95.8 0.53 13 -2 -5 -2 -2 0.2Benin 0 5.7 8.6 0.48 11 2 0 2 -1 0.0Botswana 2 4.0 15.0 0.70 29 4 3 2 2 0.0Burkina Faso -1 6.2 11.9 0.40 3 1 2 1 0 0.3Burundi -3 0.0 3.1 0.41 3 -2 -2 -2 -2 3.3Cameroon 1 4.5 29.3 0.51 16 -1 0 0 -1 6.5Central African Republic -2 5.0 1.8 0.35 8 -2 0 -1 -2 6.7Chad -2 0.6 10.1 0.39 8 -1 -1 -1 -2 2.1Comoros -1 3.5 0.6 0.50 9 0 0 1 -1 4.0Congo -2 2.2 8.0 0.59 9 -1 -3 -1 -2 0.8Congo (Democratic Republic) -1 3.3 41.6 0.43 5 -3 -2 -2 -2 6.5Equatorial Guinea -1 -5.5 11.6 0.58 10 1 -2 0 -1 0.0Ethiopia 2 7.6 72.5 0.44 8 -1 -2 -2 -1 3.5Gabon 2 2.9 14.3 0.69 38 1 -2 0 -1 0.0Gambia 0 3.2 1.0 0.45 16 1 -2 0 0 0.0Ghana 2 6.0 43.3 0.58 20 1 -3 2 0 1.4Guinea -2 5.0 6.5 0.41 4 1 0 1 -1 1.2Guinea-Bissau 0 5.0 1.2 0.42 8 0 2 1 -2 0.2Ivory Coast 2 7.2 35.5 0.47 19 0 2 0 0 3.1Kenya 3 5.9 68.9 0.55 17 -1 -2 0 1 6.7Lesotho -1 2.9 2.3 0.50 11 1 0 1 0 0.0Madagascar -2 4.7 9.7 0.51 3 0 0 1 -1 2.4Malawi -2 4.6 5.5 0.47 5 1 -2 1 0 0.0Mali 0 4.9 14.0 0.44 8 0 0 0 0 5.9Mauritius 1 4.0 12.0 0.78 10 3 1 2 2 0.0Mozambique 0 5.2 11.3 0.41 3 -1 -3 0 0 4.4Namibia 1 3.3 10.6 0.64 9 2 -2 2 1 0.0Niger -2 5.7 7.5 0.35 5 0 -1 1 0 3.5Nigeria 0 1.0 406.0 0.53 10 -1 -1 -1 -1 9.2Rwanda -1 6.7 8.4 0.49 3 1 -1 -1 2 3.3Senegal 1 6.9 14.8 0.49 12 0 1 1 0 3.5Seychelles 0 3.7 1.4 0.78 10 1 0 1 2 4.0Sierra Leone -1 6.1 4.0 0.43 7 0 -5 -1 0 0.0South Africa 2 1.4 294.1 0.67 20 0 -1 0 1 4.2Swaziland -2 0.3 3.8 0.54 9 1 0 0 -1 0.0Tanzania 0 6.7 47.2 0.52 3 0 1 1 0 4.0Togo 0 5.3 4.4 0.48 9 1 -1 0 -1 0.0Uganda 1 5.6 26.2 0.49 8 -1 0 -2 0 4.9Zambia -1 3.8 21.3 0.58 6 0 -4 1 1 0.0Zimbabwe -1 0.4 14.2 0.51 10 0 -2 1 -2 1.7

Potential demand Potential risks

Source: Danske Bank


Overview

Kenya

Botswana

Ethiopia

Gabon Ghana

Ivory Coast South Africa

Cameroon

Mauritius

Namibia

Senegal

Uganda

Angola

Benin

Gambia

Guinea-Bissau Mali

MozambiqueNigeria

Seychelles

Tanzania

TogoBurkina Faso

Comoros

Congo (Democratic Republic)

Equatorial GuineaLesothoRwanda

Sierra Leone ZambiaZimbabwe

Central African Republic

Chad

Congo

Guinea

Madagascar

Malawi

Niger

Swaziland

Burundi

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Risk

Reward

Unattractive=high risk, low reward

Attractive=low risk, high rewardIn between=low risk, low reward

In between=high risk, high reward

Source: Danske Bank


Conclusion: most attractive markets relative to risks

• Most attractive and least risky markets: Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Namibia and Mauritius

− These markets have a total population of 35m (19% of whom on average are from the middle class) and have an expected average GDP growth rate of 4.8% per annum for the next four years

• Other attractive but slightly more risky markets: Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa and Uganda

− These markets have a total population of 297m (14% of whom on average are from the middle class) and have an expected average GDP growth rate of 5.4% per annum for the next four years.


Types of Danske Bank client assistance in SSA


Types of Danske Bank support

Export finance

solutions

Trade finance

solutions

Introduction to a local

bank

Danske Bank can back clients’ business efforts in different ways:

Support with guarantees,

bid bonds etc.

General advice on selective countries

Advice on which banks to work with

Source: Danske Bank

30www.danskebank.com/CI 3030

Banking structure in Sub-Saharan Africa

The SSA banking

structure

comprise banks

with

International banksRegional focus

State ownership

or locally-

owned bank

Regional banks are

concentrating on

growing their

networks

International banks are

changing their focus

towards a limited client

base in certain markets

Source: Danske Bank


• At Danske Bank we aim to have relationships with all categories of banks. However, we focus on large banks

in each country.

• It is important to notice that SSA banks have limited balance sheets and therefore larger clients tend to

work with several banks.

• Banks are in many cases in better shape than their host country.

Danske Bank strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Danske strategy

Awareness of specific countries where it is difficult to bank, e.g. Sudan and Mozambique.

Increasing allocation of senior resources to SSA.

Strengthening of trade finance and export finance capabilities in SSA.


Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

High regard in the region for Nordic

countries and companies.

We believe SSA is an untapped

opportunity for Nordic corporates

in the long term.

Danske Bank remains optimistic about SSA growth

and prospects.


Appendix: update on key

African economies


Individual country analysis

• Ghana – fiscal skeletons cloud macro-outlook

• Kenya – solid growth, but growing fiscal gaps

• Nigeria – dealing with the oil shock; macro-challenges manageable

• Ivory Coast – the current star of the SSA pack

• Senegal – solid macroeconomic performance

• Tanzania – fast growth but externally vulnerable

• Uganda – muddling along

• Ethiopia – public investment driving high growth

• Rwanda – externally vulnerable, domestically strong

35www.danskebank.com/CISource (all charts): Macrobond Financial

Ghana – fiscal skeletons cloud macro-outlook• New government found unrecorded government spending, which has increased fiscal deficits and

raised the public debt trajectory, raising the need for fiscal adjustment, which could weigh on growth


Ghana – exchange rate undervalued at current levels

Source: Macrobond Financial


Kenya – solid growth, but growing fiscal gaps

Source (all charts): Macrobond Financial


Kenya



Nigeria – dealing with the oil shock; macro-challenges manageable



• The Nigerian authorities have adjusted the official exchange rate in steps. Meanwhile, the USD black market rate has appreciated considerably and is now very close to the official rate.

• The balance of payment is improving due to the recovery in the oil price, with the current account turning into a surplus in Q1 17. Foreign reserves have increased to safer levels.

Nigerian Naira – FX adjustment amid stronger external

balance



Ivory Coast – the current star of the SSA pack



Senegal – solid macroeconomic performance, but large current

account deficits



Tanzania – fast growth but externally vulnerable



Tanzania



Uganda – muddling along



Uganda



Ethiopia – public investment driving high growth



Ethiopia



Rwanda – externally vulnerable, domestically strong



Rwanda



Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The authors of this research report are Jakob Christensen, Chief Analyst, and Nicolai Pertou Ringkøbing, Assistant Analyst.

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Report completed: 30 August at 09:48 GMT

Report disseminated: 31 August 2017 at 06:00 GMT

a score-card approach to investing in sub-saharan africa · sustained political and economic...

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