a second ecosystem for ai development

Tsinghua University

EMERTECH 2019

A Second Ecosystem for AI Development

Ke Rong

PhD(Cantab.), Deputy Director, Institute of Economics,

School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, China

[email protected]

5 Dec. 2019Copyright @Ke Rong, Tsinghua

1

Institute of Economics

mailto:[email protected]

Tsinghua University

OUTLINE


⚫AI Global Landscape

⚫AI Competition: One world, Two Systems

⚫The Necessity of a Second Ecosystem for AI

⚫The Future Scenario for AI

2

Tsinghua University

GLOBAL AI INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE


⚫ Global AI Landscape (Startup Companies, 2017)

3

⚫ USA is the world

market leader for AI

⚫ China ranks No.2 in

the world for AI

AI Trend

Three-key-players

Europe, China, USA

Source: https://medium.com/@bootstrappingme/global-artificial-intelligence-landscape-including-database-with-3-465-ai-companies-3bf01a175c5dDownload the database of 3,465 AI companies for free: https://asgard.us12.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e29acdd806ceff9d98646e294&id=d1ebcadf46

https://medium.com/@bootstrappingme/global-artificial-intelligence-landscape-including-database-with-3-465-ai-companies-3bf01a175c5d

https://asgard.us12.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=e29acdd806ceff9d98646e294&id=d1ebcadf46

Tsinghua University



⚫ Global AI Landscape (AI IPs, 2018)

4

CHN68467USA

30200

KOR6983

CAN1095 UK

797

Source: https://www.cbndata.com/report/1561/detail?isReading=report&page=1

https://www.cbndata.com/report/1561/detail?isReading=report&page=1

Tsinghua University



⚫ Global AI Landscape (AI Papers published for some countries, 2018)

5

CHN30303USA

18144

UK8188

Source: https://www.cbndata.com/report/1561/detail?isReading=report&page=1

GER6000

ESP6168

JPN5916

IND7416

https://www.cbndata.com/report/1561/detail?isReading=report&page=1

Tsinghua University

AI TECHNOLOGY STAGES

5 Dec. 2019Copyright @Ke

Rong, Tsinghua6

⚫ Three stages of AI Technology

Source: https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1184857

First Stage of AI: 1956 - 1974 Second Stage of AI: 1975 - 2010 Third Stage of AI: 2011 - Now

The Dartmouth Summer ResearchProject on Artificial Intelligence in1956

Bellman Equation: the rudimentsof the AlphaGo algorithm

The 5th generation computerdeveloped by the U.S., also calledas the artificial intelligencecomputer at that time

AI algorithm: Multi-layered NeuralNetworks Algorithm, BP reversepropagated error algorithm

New tools, new ideas and newalgorithms emerge since 2011

Hadoop Mechanism, IBM WatsonPopularization of big data,optimization of algorithm, andimprovement of computing

The Growing Technology Maturity: Big Data+ Computing capability + Better Algorithms

https://cloud.tencent.com/developer/article/1184857

Tsinghua University

GLOBAL AI POLICY


⚫ AI Policy launched by different countries in the past few years

7

National Robotics Initiative,

BRAIN Initiative

France Robots Initiatives

Human Brain Project

2013

AI Strategy: SPARC

RAS2020

2015

Japan's Robot Strategy

Automated and Connected

Automotive Strategy

Made in China 2025,

Internet Plus

National AI Research and

Development Strategic Plan

Robot and AI

Intelligent Information

Society

AI and Big Data

Robot Industry

Development Plan,

Internet Plus AI

2017 2019

AI Industry Roadmap

AI Strategy

Pan-Canadian AI Strategy

AI.SG Strategy

AI and

National Security

AI Strategy

New Generation Artificial

Intelligence Development Plan,

3-year Internet Plus Artificial

intelligence Action plan

Cooperation on AI, AI for Europe,

Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI

Industrial Strategy: AI Sector Deal

Federal Government Strategy on AI

Committee on AI, National Security

Commission AI Act of 2018

AI Policy Document

National Strategy for AI

Executive Order on Maintaining American

Leadership in AI, National AI Research and

Development Strategic Plan: 2019 Update

Danish National Strategy for AI

Spanish RDI Strategy in AI

Russia’s National AI Strategy

Source: Collected from the Internet

The U.S. leads AI policy making

China formulated most AI policies

The EU focuses more on the ethical level of AI

More countries launched AI policies since 2017

More countries set AI Development as the National Level

Strategy since 2017

Tsinghua University

COOPERATE TO NURTURE A SECOND AI ECOSYSTEM


⚫ What China has already done?

8

2015.05 Made in China 2025

2015.07 Internet Plus

2016.03 the 13th Five-year Plan

2016.04 Development Plan of Robot Industry

2016.05 Internet Plus AI

2016.07 Innovation Strategy of the 13th Five-year Plan

2016.09Special action for innovation and development of intelligent

hardware industry

2016.11 Strategic emerging industry development plan

2017.07 Development plan of new generation artificial intelligence

2017.12 3-year plan of new generation artificial intelligence

2018.04 Action plan of artificial intelligence innovation in Colleges

2019.03Guidance on promoting the deep integration of artificial

intelligence and real economy

2019.06 Governance principles of New generation AI

⚫ The Chinese government has already

launched series of AI development strategies

⚫ China will further develop rapidly at the three

(Basic, Tech, Application) levels of AI.

Tsinghua University 5 Dec. 2019Copyright @Ke Rong, Tsinghua

9

AI Competition: One World, Two Systems

V.S.

Tsinghua University

USA BLOCKS HUAWEI

⚫The following organizations stopped the cooperation with Huawei

⚫ Google

⚫ Microsoft

⚫ ARM？

⚫ Qualcomm

⚫ IEEE?

⚫ WiFi

⚫ SD

⚫ JEDEC

⚫……


?

?

Tsinghua University

AI COMPETITION: ONE WORLD TWO SYSTEMS


⚫ Turing Point of global AI development: the US-China trade war

⚫ the U.S. now maintains the leadership against China in AI field

11

V.S.

USA, 1078,

43%

CHN, 592,

23%

OTHERS,

872, 34%

AI Startup Companies in 2017

USA CHN OTHERS

9261

14635

51125

3114

36

252241

190144

9191

413324

Natural Language Processing

Computer Vision and Graphics

Smart Drone

Autonomous Driving

Speech Recognition

AI Companies in Different Areas

CHN USA

78700

39200

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

USA CHN

Number of AI Talents

15 17 25 40 50 59 70 94 124 180 266383

527

1350

1650

2000

0 0 0 2 2 3 4 11 16 30 105255

493

745880

1000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019

Cumulative Financing of AI Industry, 2004-2019

USA CHN 2周期移动平均 (USA) 2周期移动平均 (CHN)

Source: https://www.tisi.org/Public/Uploads/file/20170802/20170802172414_51007.pdf

https://www.tisi.org/Public/Uploads/file/20170802/20170802172414_51007.pdf

Tsinghua University



⚫ The All-around Development of U.S. AI Industry: Basic, Technology, Application level

⚫ China’s AI Industry: strong competitiveness in application level

⚫ In the trade war, the U.S. is seeking technology leadership in many ways

⚫ Exp.: the Trump administration’s ban on selling to the Chinese tech giant Huawei

⚫ A new AI ecosystem work together by other countries is highly needed！

12

V.S.

Source: collected form the internet

USA CHNGoogle Amazon Facebook Microsoft Apple Intel IBM Huawei Tencent Baidu Alibaba

Application Level

Consumer Products

Google Home, Google

Automated Vehicle

Echo, Alexa, Amazon Go,

PrimeAir Drone

Chatting Bot, Jarvis, Moments

Skype, Cortana, Tay, A-eye

Siri /HiAssistant,

IoTWechatAI,

Dreamwriter

Baidu Automated

VehicleTmall Elf

Industry Solutions

Voice Itelligence API, Google Cloud

Amazon Lex, Amazon Polly,

Amazon Rekognition

Face Recognition Technology, DeepFace, DeepMask, SharpMask,

MultiPathNet

/ / /Watson, Bluemix,

ROSSModelArts Cloud Search

Apollo, DuerOS

/

Technology Level

Tech-Platform/Framework

TensorFlow, Cloud Machine

Learning Engine

AWSPytorch, Torchnet,

FBLearner Flow

DMTK, Bot Framework,

Github/ /

SystemML

MindSpore, Gauss, Euler, Harmony OS

Tencent Cloud, Angel,

NCNN

Paddle-Paddle

PAI 2.0

Basic Level

ChipsTPU, Cloud

TPU, Quantum Computer

Annapurna ASIC Big Sur FPGA ChipApple Neural Engine

X86 chips

Brain-Like

Chips

Ascend, HiSilicon

/ DuerOS Ali-NPU

Tsinghua University



⚫ AI competition in the basic level: AI chip architecture

⚫ AI competition in the technology level: AI framework

⚫ A three key players of AI framework (Google, Facebook, Huawei)

⚫ Based on the AI chip architecture and AI framework, the world is generating two AI ecosystems.

⚫ A Second AI ecosystem with more Openness and Neutrality is different from the U.S. AI

ecosystem

13

V.S.

Source: collected form the internet

ARM Architecture ARM + Da Vinci Architecture

V.S.Google TensorFlow Facebook Pytorch Huawei Mindspore


14

The Necessity of A Second Ecosystem for AI

Tsinghua University

COOPERATE TO NURTURE A SECOND AI ECOSYSTEM


⚫ The rest countries should together nurture a second AI ecosystem with neutrality.

⚫ The lack of ecosystem trust is the one of the key reasons for the trade war

⚫ Build the ecosystem trust and nurture a second AI ecosystem

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2. The Importance of Ecosystem Trust

1.Vision: Cope with Grand Challenge and Conduct Existential Innovation

3. Complementarity to each other

Technology Level (Mindspore)

Application Level

Math, AI Algorithms

Basic Level (ARM Architecture)


16

The Future Scenario of AI Ecosystems

Tsinghua University

THE FUTURE SCENARIO


17

One ecosystem

but, with Diversified solution

One world

The Necessity to Nurture a Second Ecosystem for AI

Or

The Alternative is

Tsinghua University

EMERTECH 2019

Thank You!Ke Rong

Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University

[email protected]


18

Institute of Economics

mailto:[email protected]

a second ecosystem for ai development

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