A Secret History of the Orange Order, 1963-2005

The Loyal Orange Institution

• Founded 1795, rural Armagh• Officially: Religious, ethical organisation• Reality is an Ethnic association with 5

functions in order of importance:

1. Cultural2. Convivial3. Political4. Religious5. Economic/Benevolent

Major Theses

• Untheorised category of 'traditional' Unionism which best captures Orangeism

• Modernisation shifts Orange/Unionist outlook from traditionalism to rebellion

• Modernisation in NI equates to ethnonationalism not liberal-cosmopolitanism pace Fukuyama

• The Order and Unionism is becoming more 'paramilitary' in its attitude toward violence as:– Protestants lose attachment to Crown institutions – Young Protestants more militant, less traditional– Strategy seen to work for Nationalists

Ulster-British Ulster-Loyalist

Rebel Unionism

Traditionalist (Loyal)

Unionism

Evangelical Wing Secular Wing

Rebels 'Loyal' Traditionalists

Denomination Presbyterian, Methodist Church of Ireland

Plantation Origin Scots-Irish Anglo-Irish

Mass base Industrial Labour, Small freeholders Rural tenants

North American Exemplars ‘Scotch-Irish’ Patriots in USA, c. 1776 Orange Loyalists in Canada, c. 1837

Interpretation of Orangeism Uphold militant Protestantism Uphold traditional British-Protestant values

View of Grand Lodge and Unionist leaders

Skeptical Respectful

Preferred Political Expression Direct Public Protest Informal elite channels

Preferred Orange Principle Ulster-Protestant ethnic interest and reformed faith - as embodied in abstract principle and the sentiments of the mass membership

Orange tradition - as embodied in Orange laws, ordinances, customs and history

Leadership Evangelical clergy, petit-bourgeoisie Aristocracy, Large local businessmen

Political Philosophy Lockean radical change, Populism Burkean evolution, Deference to elite consensus

Attitudes to alcohol, band discipline and traditional social mores

Secularists more permissive, evangelicals more conservative than even traditionalists

Conservative

Stance toward paramilitaries and political violence

More permissive, especially secular rebels Antagonistic

Attitude toward British crown Conditionality Loyalty

Interpretation of Protestantism Protestantism as dissent Protestantism as tradition

National identity Ulstermen British

Favoured N.I. party DUP UUP

Regional base Antrim, N. Down, Belfast South and West

Sources

• Central Committee Minutes 1951-83, 1995-2003• Grand Lodge Correspondence, 1963-74, 1995-2004• Grand Lodge Reports of Proceedings, 1951-2005• County Grand Lodge Minutes• Grand Lodge and County Membership Returns, 1951-

2005• Belfast Initiation Forms, 1961-1987• Grand Lodge Expulsion, Suspension and Resignation

Records, 1966-2003• Interviews • Lodge plots from county Orangemen

Cultural Characteristics

• Strength in 'Border' Unionist areas with large Catholic and Church of Ireland populations

• Under siege but not defeated

• Traditionalist rather than rebel in outlook

• Orangeism is communal not militant

Orange Lodges (1991) and County Orange Density (1971),

Northern Ireland

Part I: From Insider to Outsider, 1963-95 2 Cracks in The Establishment: Orange Opposition to O'Neill,

1963-1969 28 3 Orangeism Under Fire: Negotiating the Troubles, 1969-72 74 4 Unity in the Face of Treachery, 1972-1977 126 5 Stable Rejectionism: The Smyth-Molyneaux Axis, 1978-95 171 Part II: Orangeism at the Dawn of the Third Millennium, 1995-2005 6 The Battle of Drumcree 230 7 From Victory to Defeat: Drumcree, 1996-1998 272 8 Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations after the

Good Friday Agreement 315 9 The War Against the Parades Commission 369 10 Segmenting the Orange: The Future of Orangeism in the

Twenty-First Century 421 11 Conclusion 481

Cracks in The Establishment: Orange

Opposition to O'Neill, 1963-1969

• Orange Establishment: Andrews, Clark

• Dungiven Crises

• British reform

• Orangeism resists reform logic

• Clark cannot hold the centre

• Order issues resolution of no-confidence in O'Neill, heads the anti-O'Neillite forces

Orangeism Under Fire: Negotiating the

Troubles, 1969-72 • No Fear: Constitutional Position, Not Security,

the top priority• Restoration of Stormont: NI Act and parity with

rest of UK• Call for hardline stance on security: internment,

no-go areas, border. Would dissipate IRA threat like 1956-62

• Firm 'no' to parade bans (1970, 1971)• Numerous deputations• Resistance to local government reform• Engineer Chichester-Clark's fall through UUC

Unity in the Face of Treachery, 1972-1977

• Call for Restoration of Stormont• Resistance to power-sharing and N-S bodies• Nucleus of anti-Faulknerite forces, support for

Craig• Traditionalism: Friction with Craig and Paisley

over paramilitaries• Strongly back LAW and UWC strike, 1974• UUUC: Orangeism the hub of 'No' Unionism• Clashes with Paisley, no support for UUAC,

1976-77

Stable Rejectionism: The Smyth-Molyneaux Axis, 1978-95

• Smyth & Molyneaux major figures in CC by late 1960s. Hardliners.

• Smyth elected Grand Master, 1973• Molyneaux – Westminster leader and elected UUP leader

1978• Smyth backs Molyneaux. Molyneaux and Order agree on

'no' stance toward all power-sharing and N-S bodies• Uninspired, but electorally safe. Paisley kept at bay and

UUP-Orange link solid• Flagging anti-AIA protest movement and Framework Docs

end Molyneaux's term• Drumcree '95 seals Smyth's fate• Social Change: flattened class hierarchies, membership

decline

The Battle of Drumcree 1995

• Rise of Residents' Groups• Parades follow power• Rise in loyalist parading since 1980s• Portadown: politicised Orangemen, Protestant majority• 1972 UDA challenge, 1985 & 87 reroutes – only one of

20 annual major 12th parades to ever be rerouted• Mass mobilisation of extra-Orange elements convinces

RUC to allow token march in 1995• Violence splits Order: SOD vs Education

Committee/Leadership• SOD rally, November 1995

From Victory to Defeat: Drumcree, 1996-1998

• Parades go through in 1996, 1997 due to force of extra-Orange elements: Wright, Adair. Inspires SOD militants.

• Bad PR• SOD bully tactics – achieve some policy

changes, scare leadership to the right• Leadership does not go after SOD leaders,

influence lingers unlike 1954• Drumcree strategy fails in 1998, leads to new

focus on PR and human rights discourse

Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations

after the Good Friday Agreement • Smyth and Molyneaux galvanise opposition to

GFA at Grand Lodge• Declining Support for GFA after 04/98 among

Unionist electorate. Grand Lodge votes 76-10 against

• Most counties opposed, except for Tyrone, and to a lesser degree Fermanagh

• Smyth challenges Trimble, 2000• Orange UUC delegates 75% anti-GFA in 2003,

when almost 60% of UUC is pro

Breaking the Link: Orange-UUP Relations after the Good Friday Agreement

• Orange leaders and about 60% of lodge officers back the link, but 2/3 of members opposed by 1995-7

• UUP seeks to modernise under Trimble post-1995• Order uses its UUC clout to frustrate UUP modernisation• Rapprochement with Free Presbyterians (1998-9), DUP

(1999) and IOO (2003)• Orange vote matches population with slight lean to

Paisley by 2001• Orangeism advantages UUP in rural border areas, and

DUP elsewhere• 2004 no-confidence in Trimble, 2005 breaking of link to

UUP

UUP Support as a Proportion of the Unionist Vote in Local Elections, 1993

The War Against the Parades Commission

• Order increasingly focused on parading since GFA is stalled

• Battle with Parades Commission since 1998• Human Rights Logic and Legal Case is New• Split between those who wish to negotiate and those

who do not. Roughly 55-30 back Grand Lodge 'No' Policy

• Grand Lodge openly defied • Pro-Negotiation: need to negotiate to make European

court case against PC; success of Apprentice Boys and Black

• Anti-Negotiation: PC inherently anti-loyalist• 2 Portadown officers join PC, 2005

Pro-Negotiation Sentiment

• I feel that the virtual loss of the Ormeau Road due to the fact that Grand Lodge has tied the hands of my good friend the District Master Noel Liggett, as to who we talk to and who we don't has caused untold damage...it is the Order who [need to] move themselves into the here and now, not to be hindered by unworkable principles that cost us influence, friends, roads and membership, including my own

Segmenting the Orange: The Future of Orangeism in the Twenty-First Century

• Membership Decline

• Violence, Paramilitarism, Estrangement from Police

Newer Trends

• Orangeism used to be as strong in cities as in rural areas before 1969

• Orange strength has fallen to about 1/3 of its membership in Derry and Belfast since 1969

• Also declines in the major towns

Orange Density by District Electoral Area, Northern Ireland, 1991

Orange Membership Losses, 1991-2001, by District Electoral Area

Orange Strength Today

• Remains strong in rural areas, especially along the border

• Membership decline linked to mobility and Troubles violence

• Violent events do not have enough lasting effect to offset membership losses due to expanded mobility

Border Orangeism, c. 1991

Orange and Masonic Membership Decline, 1975-90, by County

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Tyrone &Fermanagh

Armagh Down Londonderryand Donegal

Antrim

Masons

Orange

Post-1945 Membership Trends, Orange and Masons

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ratio

to

1945 M

em

bers

hip

Ontario WestNFSCTNIDown MasonsCo. Down

Predictors of Orange Membership Strength among Protestants, 1959-2002 & 1959-1992

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Road Mileage Troubles Deaths Key PoliticalEvents

Marriage Rate

t-st

atis

tic.

Orange Membership Density (Trend) 1959-2002

Orange Membership Density (Trend) 1959-1992

Change in Orange Membership Density (Short-RunEffect) 1959-2002

Orange Membership and Road Expansion in Northern Ireland, 1959-2005

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

12500

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

Orangemen

Miles of Road

Change in Urban Orangeism

– Sharp Membership decline in urban areas and larger towns

– Few (0-5%) young urban Protestant men are in the Order

– Membership losses to alternative forms of Protestant identity (bands, paramilitaries)

– Secularisation, de-traditionalisation, de-industrialisation

– Belfast Order 'adapts' by relaxing moral code and line against paramilitarism in order to retain members

A Decline of Discipline?

• Ryder & Kearney (2001), as well as Drumcree and interface violence would suggest this

• Some suggest that there has been a change in the culture of Orangeism toward greater permissiveness

• Others claim that the middle class has been deserting the Order

Discipline Has Never Been Strong

• Gusty Spence and Robert Williamson, UVF men, sentenced for murder of Catholics, 1966

• Mid-June 1967 debate at Grand Lodge. One lodge moves for non-expulsion, decision deferred for 6 mos. pending outcome of Shankill Rd. petition

• Though suspended in 1967, few similar cases• What has changed is elite's willingness to

suspend for challenging the leadership (ie Spirit of Drumcree vs. Orange & Protestant Committee of 1953-4)

Expulsion Rate, 1964-2002

0.00%

0.01%

0.02%

0.03%

0.04%

0.05%

0.06%

0.07%

Expulsions from the Orange Order, by Category, 1964-2002

Law 4 (marry/cohabit),

33%

Other RC-related, 11%Crime, 25%

Fraud, 12%

Immorality, 6%

Discipline, 10%

Withdrawal of Middle Class?

• Middle-Class Orangeism never strong except Derry

• Already gone by now

• Some clerical resignations, no major middle-class exodus

Profile of Orange Resignations, 1998-2003

Avg 27 Rural NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N

Orangemen 2001 6.082114 35.51% 12.43% 58.66% 3368

Resignations98-03 5.852616 15.78% 18.27% 52.94% 767

Difference 0.229497 19.73% -5.84% 5.71%

Postcode Profile of Suspended Orangemen, 2002

Avg 27 NR Bottom 7 NR Top 12 N. Cases

Grand Lodge 3.07 18% 63% 144

Suspended 3.06 35% 41% 296

District Officers 3.02 17% 61% 803

Masters&Sec 3.07 22% 58% 1429

Violence and Paramilitarism

• Young loyalists increasingly favour DUP, less likely to support traditional institutions (churches, Orangeism)

• Change in urban, loyalist culture forces Orangeism to 'adapt' in order to stanch losses

• Estrangement from new police and Orange Obligation to uphold the law and be loyal to Crown forces

• Intimidation from paramilitaries, accusations of 'Lundy' from local communities

Violence and Paramilitarism

• Changes also affect the Order at the top • Order equivocates over violence 1995-2005:

Drumcree and Whiterock• Though violence on the rise, discipline has never

been strongly enforced in the Order• However, Order did take firm stand against

paramilitarism under Smyth and previous administrations. No longer willing to openly blame paramilitaries and endorse police

• Rifts between country-based 'traditionalists' and militants from the towns and E. Bann counties

Conclusion

• Traditional 'Loyal' Unionism has been the hallmark of Orangeism

• Conservative, but loyal to traditional institutions• Traditionalism in decline, Rebel Unionism in the

ascendant among new generations• Orange Order reflects/adapts by healing rifts

with rebel institutions and becoming alienated from traditional ones

• Unclear whether Order can withstand decline in social capital in NI, but it will remain influential