a study of human resource supply labour market demand

7/21/2019 A Study of Human Resource Supply Labour Market Demand

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Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs,Martyrs and Disabled

Conducted by: The Labour Market Information and Analysis Unit.

Supported by: The National Skills Development Programme.

July 2007

A Studyof

Human Resource Supply and Labour

Market Demand

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It would be nice if the poor

were to get even half of the moneythat is spent in studying them.

William Vaughan

Manpower planning makes a fool of itselfwhen over-ambitious; but labour market informationis still an indispensable basis for plans of many kinds.

UK Overseas Development Agency



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Table of Contents

PageAbbreviations and Acronyms 5

Executive summary 6

1.0 Introduction 10

1.1 Background to the review 101.2 Rationale 101.3 Employment & Training Policy formulation 11

1.4 Bottom up approach 111.5 Skills development 12

1.6 Labour market information(LMI) 13

1.7 Human Resource Development (HRD) 131.8 Interim Afghanistan National Development Strategy (I-ANDS) 141.9 Definitions 141.10 Capacity building 15

1.11 Labour market information and analysis unit (LMIAU) 16

1.12 Existing capacity 171.13 Bench marks 17

1.14 Project Phases 17

2.0 Review methodology 19

2.1 Preparatory research 192.2 Desk study 192.3 Reports reviewed 22

3.0 Secondary Supply Sources 32

3.1 General population Data 32

3.2 General education picture 32

3.3 Higher education 37

3.4 Access to University 39

3.5 Non Formal/Informal 393.6 Non Government 40

3.7 Private sector 404.0 Secondary demand data 41

4.1 Government employment potential 41

4.2 Employer's demand information and data 42

4.3 NSDP demand information and data 43

4.4 Other sources of demand information 495.0 Gaps in data reviewed 51

5.1 Informal sector 515.2 Instructor training 515.3 Skill level 52

5.4 Skill standards/testing 525.5 Standard Occupational Classification 526.0 LMIA The way forward 53

6.1 Policy issues 536.2 Employment and training issues. 546.3 Labour Market Policy body (LMPB) 55

6.4 Restructure of the DME 556.5 Strengthen the Employment and Training function. 566.6 Intended beneficiaries 57



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6.7 Institutional Framework 57

6.8 LMIA network 57

6.9 Employment Service Centres 60

7.0 Recommendations 617.1 Labour market policy board 617.2 Labour market information and analysis unit 61

7.3 Labour market surveys 617.4 Staffing policy 61

7.5 Staff development 62

7.6 Staff career planning 627.7 Accession planning system 627.8 Capacity building across the MOLSA 62

8.0 Action Plan: 638.1 Setting the agenda 638.2 Alternatives 63

9.0 Draft proposal to strengthen the LMIA Unit 659.1 Establish a Labour market Policy Board 659.2 Strengthen Department of manpower & Employment 669.3 Establish and staff a Research and development cell 68

10. Bibliography & Related documents reviewed 7011. Figure One: MoLSA Organogram 7312. Figure Two: Suggested LMIA Unit Structure 7413. Annex list 75

Annex A: Selected modern (formal)-sector enterprise listings

Annex B: Demand data from NSDP partners and other agencies

Annex C: International Standard Classification of Occupations listing



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Abbreviations and Acronyms

ACBAR Agency Coordination Body for Afghan ReliefACEG Afghan Carpet Exporters GuildADB Asian Development Bank

AGEF Association of Expert in the Fields of Migration & Development CooperationAICC Afghanistan International Chamber of CommerceALTAI Altai ConsultingAREU Afghanistan Research and Evaluation UnitARDS Afghanistan Reconstruction and Development ServicesASMED Afghanistan Small & Medium Enterprise DevelopmentAWBF Afghanistan Womens Business FederationCIPE Centre of International Private EnterpriseCSIS Centre for Strategic & International StudiesCSO Central Statistics OfficeESC Employment Service CentreGTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische ZusammenarbeitILO International Labour Organization

IRC International Rescue CommitteeISAF International Security Assistance ForceISCO International Standard Classification of OccupationsJICA Japanese International Cooperation AgencyKOICA Korean International Cooperation AgencyLMIAU Labour Market Information and Analysis UnitMOC Ministry of CommerceMOEd Ministry of EducationMOEc Ministry of EconomicsMOHE Ministry of Higher EducationMOLSAMD Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Martyrs & DisabledMOPW Ministry of Public WorksMRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation

MOWA Ministry of Womens AffairsNRVA National Risk & Vulnerability AssessmentNSDP National Skills Development & Market Linkages ProjectNSS National Surveillance SystemPDT Peace Dividend TrustPRT Provincial Reconstruction TeamRI Relief InternationalRFP Request for proposalSAB Solidarite Afghanistan BelgiqueSDO Sanayee Development OrganizationUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUSAID United States Agency for International DevelopmentWB World Bank

WFP World Food Programme



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Executive SummaryThis study is submitted in response to the requirement to support the Afghanistan NationalDevelopment Strategy (ANDS) and to meet the benchmark:

A human resource study will be completed by Jaddi 1385 (end-2006)

Although the benchmark statement does not include a clause which defines the scope of sucha human resource study, discussions with representatives of the ANDS and the Ministry ofFinance led to an acknowledgment that it would take the form of a labour market supply anddemand study.

It was also agreed that given the huge effort and expense required to undertake such studies,and the fact that there was no Government agency technically and financially equipped to dothis, therefore the Ministry of labour and Social Affairs, Martyrs and Disabled (MoLSAMD),through the National Skills Development Program (NSDP), would commission the studywhilst simultaneously developing some foundation capacity at the MoLSAMD in order toundertake such investigations and reporting on a sustainable basis in the future.

Overall, the intention is to contribute to a better understanding of the labour (humanresource) supply and demand situation in Afghanistan. However, it has to be appreciated thateven in developed countries, which have almost a 100% formal-sector economy; it is difficultto provide an absolute degree of precision in predicting the required numbers of workers at anational level particularly in the non-public sector. In other words, no national reportrelating to a mixed and free economy is likely be able to predict, with certainty, how manyconstruction workers, accountants, horticulturalists etc., are needed in a particular city ordistrict.

In practice, national data is compiled from a wide range of sources and is used to informgeneral trends related to the economy with those analysing the data having specialistknowledge of certain sectors and presenting that to key decision makers.

At the local level, and particularly in connection with training, it is largely the responsibilityof local training institutions themselves to become tuned to the needs of their localeconomies, and to respond to those needs - with national authorities providing key statisticsand information relating to general trends and complementing the local institutions efforts.

In other words it is the combined efforts of many local and national institutions whichprovides us with the complete labour market picture and with a 90% informal andunregistered free economy, such as that now existing in Afghanistan, a combined butcoordinated approach is likely to work best.

The study was carried out in a series of stages commencing with a desk review of issues at thepolicy level with regard to, mainly, employment and training. It then presents a summary ofthe most recent data on labour supply and demand much detail being provided in the

annexes. It concludes with recommendations regarding what provision of labour marketinformation collection and analysis might work best for Afghanistan at present, and in thenear future.

In Section One,the position taken is that the development of present capacities of the publicservice, and MOLSAMD in particular for labour market enquiry and reporting, should betempered by the reality that there are serious deficiencies in baseline human capacity thatcan only be overcome by a phased and longer-term, organic approach to agencydevelopment.



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The report suggests that, among others, policies are required that promote a bottom up

approach to enable the majority of the population, the semi-skilled and rural people, to be

mobilized through locally initiated schemes and provided with support for vocational training,

micro and small enterprise development, business development services, value chain analysis

and credit. Labour based technologies must be used to generate income.

The formulation of such policies requires those involved to conceptualize and carefullyconsider the economic and social realities of the country at this stage of its development, and

in more detail than is probably being considered at present.

Section Twocontains a short review of international sources, with one key document alertingreaders to the fact that often, in countries like Afghanistan, the approaches needed to informemployment and training interventions, and especially labour market enquiries, need to bepragmatic, demanddriven and adequately resourced. Potential sources of Labour MarketInformation (LMI) are then described, and followed by reviews of eleven significantdocuments. In each case conclusions were reached that focus on the implications for anyfuture labour market information and analysis activity, the level of experience of thedesigners, the problems of data consistency and, in most instances, the lack of any statisticalframe. However, the value of the reports is acknowledged, as is the fact that the reasons for

their commissioning were not necessarily as a means of generating generic LMI. The reportwhich, to date, is most informative in terms of providing data linked to indicators of themarket was the International Rescue Committees (IRCs) report of September 2003.

Lessons learned, strategies used, methodologies followed and the structure of the documentswere noted for future reference for the capacity-building of the Labour Market Informationand Analysis Unit proposed.

Section Threelooks at the available data on the supply side from available sources withinGovernment, selected Non Government agencies and key modern (formal) sector employerorganizations.

The total numbers of students currently being prepared for technical careers in relation to the

actual demand for such students is in urgent need of review by policy makers. The ratio oftechnician and skilled worker-level graduates, when compared to the tertiary/higher educationoutput, appears to be out of proportion to the needs of the country. The private proprietarytraining sector was not assessed as no documentation has been found.

Section Fourconsiders secondary demand data by looking first at the employment figures ofthe Government, private sector business community and reports containing some demanddata. Although there is a lack of information on the informal sector, in-roads are being madeby the National Skills Development Program (NSDP). This requires that ImplementingPartner (IP) Training providers (TPs) provide substantial employment demand data as acondition of entering into contract negotiations. The NSDP also requires that contracted TPscollect local demand data, based on the International Standard Codes for Occupations, fromthe localities in which they work. (This being good practice for any training provideranywhere.) Data from previous NSDP contracts, where they were substantial, are alsosummarized.

The efforts of the Employment Service Centres (ESCs) of the MOLSAMD to balance supplywith demand, is also recorded. However it is felt that the large numbers of semi-skilled andrural people in need of income earning opportunities are somewhat overlooked by the existingnetwork. Alternatives to the ESCs that recognize the informal coping mechanisms that havetraditionally found employment should be investigated as a means of gathering real timelabour market data. Privatization of some segments of the employment service should also be



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assessed, especially for foreign worker placement, and as a means of tracing expatriateworker numbers internally.

Section Five addresses the gaps in data, the paucity of comparable data and the difficulty ofdrawing correlated conclusions and obtaining reliable information. Where availableinformation did refer to the links between the education and training being provided, but therewas virtually no mention made of size or the complexity of determining the demand for skillsin the informal sector. The report concludes that the typical approaches to determiningemployment status, and assessing demand based on statistical frames, is inappropriate atgiven the present stage of the countrys development.

Section Sixlooks at policy issues as they relate to employment and training and suggestsways of moving forward from a single and narrowly based model to something straightforward, standardized and more likely to be sustainable. The strategy proposed at the centrallevel would involve a range of potential stakeholders and beneficiaries in a series ofdiscussions that would lead to the establishment of a multi-agency/ministry body to beresponsible for labour market policies. These policies would in turn be the framework withinwhich future regulations, strategies and implementation mechanisms would be developed.

This section also suggests that the implementation be driven by a Labour Market Informationand Analysis Unit (LMIAU) within MOLSAMD. The intention is to identify a network ofkey sources of information in each province, the sources providing intelligence at provincial,district and local level. The development of the provincial network by the LMIAU isadvocated as a means of empowering those who are best placed to provide feedback based onactual supply and demand needs. The mandate of the LMIAU must be based on theexpectations of the labour market policy body who should determine the scope of such anetworks activities.

To ensure that the LMIAU can provide the level and quality of services expected, requiresposts for database development and data entry, plus professional staff with economics andstatistical qualifications as shown in a proposed organizational structure. Detailed dataanalysis and reporting capacity is a very specialised and crucial element and provision within

the structure requires very careful consideration.

Section Sevencontains a set of recommendations that would inform any future employmentand training policies in a manner that would promote efficient, effective, relevant andpractical solutions suited to the prevailing situation in the country. The key recommendationsare:

The formation of a National Labour Market Policy Board made up of keystakeholders, with provincial ad-hoc advisory committees formed to provide localintelligence.

That the scope and limitations of the LMIAU should be determined by the aboveBoard so as to inform any decisions on staffing levels and qualifications, procedures,standards and quality criteria.

That the responsibility for labour market enquiries commissioned by the Governmentbe vested in this Unit.

Outsourcing of selected surveys would also be encouraged, as would working closelywith the Central Statistics Office for particular types of enquiries and sample frames with privatization of some activities as and when appropriate.

Policies, strategies and practices concerning staffing the LMIA Unit posts need to bedeveloped and reviewed, and acceptable, minimum qualifications set. Transparentselection is essential, and career planning that includes inter-ministry transfers toprovide promotion and cross fertilization of experience and ideas, ought to be



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adopted. An accession plan must be in place to ensure that institutional capacity issteadily built and institutional memory is retained as staff develop, move, arepromoted and separate.

An incremental approach to the strengthening of MoLSAMD, that matches theexisting capacity, be implemented based on an agreed strategy over a five yearperiod. (Any expectation that wholesale and overnight restructuring of the

Ministry is possible at this stage is probably unrealistic. The natural and deeprooted resistance to change can only be overcome with a sensitive andcarefully managed programme operating over the longer term and that hasserious cost implications for the TA support required.)

Section Eightproposes an action plan that would provide an opportunity for those other thanthe MoLSAMD staff to enter into a dialogue. The intention is to allow as wide a spectrum aspossible of those who have specific labour market data needs to express them clearly. Theobjectives of the existing LMIA project are considered and modifications to the existingproject strategy are explored. The proposition that the project would undertake to conduct atruly national labour market survey within its relatively short project life and, at the same timestaff, train and establish a sustainable Labour Market Information and Analysis Unit isquestioned. Alternatives are proposed and include a systematic and realistically timed staff

development process.

The proposal is that there is a clear separation of the one-off ANDS benchmark requirementof a Human Resource Study (which has never been defined), from the capacity buildingresponsibility. If this is adopted, and a more realistic timeline agreed, it should be possible tohave the LMIAU retain responsibility for surveys. This would be undertaken, incollaboration with the Central Statistics Office (CSO), to set the frame, design theinstruments, set the focus and, depending on capacity, decide to outsource activities such asdata collection and quantitative analysis. The agency contracted to undertake this work wouldbe required to mentor LMIA staff in the outsourced activities as a contribution to capacitybuilding.

Section Nineprovides a draft proposal and structure for further development of the LMIAU.This proposal assumes that the Unit is to be further strengthened, located in MoLSAMDsDepartment of Manpower and Employment and is sufficiently resourced. This draws togetherconclusions from the reviews, observations and comments from the key informants met -some having extensive international experience in the field of employment and training.

Annexeshave been compiled and include the data collected from different sources:

Annex A: Selected modern (formal) sector enterprise listings are included but limited tobusinesses. Ministries assuming responsibility for registration of these businesses varieswidely. The CSO advised that statistical frames were difficult to draw up for both the modernand informal economy and agreed that data gathered at this time by non-statistical methodswas probably an acceptable solution.Annex B: Demand data from various sources, including the NSDP Implementing Partners, is

provided and is in a variety of formats. Here there is some data actual numbers of jobsavailable and some tracer information on employed trainees. (The LMIAU will develop aseries of guidelines as a basis to build reliable labour market information as the NSDP andother networks becomes more sophisticated and expand.)Annex C: The International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) listing isprovided as there needs to be a clear and unambiguous understanding of job tiles whengathering labour market data. The LMIAU project will need to liaise with the CentralStatistics Office to ensure data compatibility.



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1.0 Introduction

1.1 Background to the reviewThis review report is submitted in response to the requirement in the MOLSAMD's strategydocument written in support of the Afghanistan National Development Strategy. The Ministry

of Labour and Social Affairs, Martyrs and Disabled (MOLSAMD) is committed to provide,

among other things, " a sustainable system for on-going collection, analysis and dissemination

of labour market information" and to "Building the capacity of the MOLSAMD staff in

collecting and analyzing labour market information". 1 To achieve these components key

strategic directions were formulated that refer to the development of the linkages between the

labour force and labour requirements. 2

Within the overall Ministry strategy priority results expect to be enhanced by:

Implementing a review of existing data as a basis for a comprehensive labour market

study. The review, the focus of this report is scheduled for completion by July 31 st, 2007

(5/1386)

Completing a comprehensive study of human resources by August 31 st, 2008

(6/1387)

Building the capacity of national staff to sustain the LMIA Unit's on-goingcollection, analysis and dissemination of LMI.3

As a first step in providing more focused data a Labour Market Information and Analysis

(LMIA) Unit is being established within MOLSAMD. The Unit has the responsibility to

provide a service that will continuously deliver useful and accurate data on supply and demand

of workers in Afghanistan to a wide range of stakeholders throughout the country.

This Unit is staffed by Afghans and headed by a national manager. As part of the initial

activities the LMIA Unit will conduct a review of known data and texts to contribute to a

better understanding of the labour supply and demand situation through out the country. To

accomplish this aspect of the Unit's work a team of national staff is being assembled. Within

the team a number of data entry and field enumerators will be recruited on short term

contracts to provide support for an initial assessment of the supply and demand requirements

throughout the country.

1.2 RationaleThe decision to embark on any labour market information and analysis exercise in Afghanistanmust be tempered by the realities found in terms of existing capacity within MOLSAMD.Knowledge of the tools to be used, the priorities to be focused on and the scope of any labourmarket survey exercise must be made based on staff and resources capacity that does notcurrently exist.

1 Ministry strategy for Afghanistan National Development Strategy, (with focus on

prioritization), MOLSAMD, Kabul, March 2007.2 Op.cit., p163 Op. cit., p3



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The situation with respect to the quality of infrastructure, the security aspects in some

provinces and the lack of baseline information in Afghanistan at this time is poor by

international standards for such an ambitious exercise. This has resulted in some instances of

less than rigorous approaches being used in the immediate past for data collection and

subsequent analysis.

1.3 Employment & Training (E&T) Policy formulationIt is generally agreed that a national E&T policy is a crucial element within any nationaleconomic and social development plan. E&T policy must be formulated in a manner thatcomplements those of other national objectives. To make such decisions in isolation withoutsome form of consensus is to court disaster. National policies must be clear to all concernedparties and defined in such a way that there is little opportunity for ambiguity on the part of thedecision-makers, stakeholders and intended beneficiaries in the labour market.

Government planners charged with the responsibility to respond with supporting legislation,regulations and strategies for implementation, must all have a common understanding of thereasons for and the political economic and social implications of these policies. This is a

national responsibility and each ministry must be involved.

From the perspective of this review, the linkages between population growth, the distribution

of the population in terms of location, sex and age and, in the case of Afghanistan, the unique

characteristics of a labour force emerging from protracted war, need to be understood when

seeking solutions to labour market imbalances.

The Government enters a period of post conflict peace having never had to conduct any type of

labour market survey activity. As a result of this vacuum traditional coping mechanisms have

evolved and a large proportion of unskilled and semi-skilled labour is sourced through

traditional linkages with family, through word of mouth and by other forms of informal

contact. Many people have multiple ways to cope and earn a livelihood in such an

environment. Employment Service Centers (ESCs) as a means of finding work or sourcinglabour is, as yet, relatively new as a concept in Afghanistan. It is not incumbent upon private

employers to register vacancies nor is mandatory for the unemployed to register and with

such a large proportion (perhaps more than 90%) of the economy being informal in nature, it is

questionable as to whether an ESC approach is cost effective, equitable and relevant at this

stage. This aspect of MOLSAMDs work focuses on a very small sector of the population and

has limited value at this stage of the country's development.

Policies are required to enable the semi-skilled and rural population to be mobilized through

locally initiated schemes such as micro and small enterprise development, business

development services, value chain analysis and credit, and labour based technologies must be

used to generate income.

1.4 Bottom up approachIssues arising out of such policies requires that those promoting them conceptualize andcarefully consider the economic and social realities of the country. This conceptualization cancome from any quarter. In some instances what is known as a green paper is presented. It canbe the result disaffection on the part of pressure groups within the private sector; in others, it isthe result of sector-specific research and conclusions reached having studied a variety of



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government sources. The content of such papers, if sufficiently robust and demonstrates thatthere is adequate support, is usually discussed in the public arena. Such papers are theacknowledged vehicle used to stimulate debate on important issues. Debate and discussionusually extends across as wide a spectrum of the population as is possible and a variety ofmedia are used to stimulate public involvement. The results of such discussion can lead to thereview of existing policies and legislation and the resulting white paper, often providing thegovernments view of the original green paper may then become the basis for the formulationof future policies.

Given the current situation in respect of Afghanistan the processes followed to formulate the

current strategy for MOLSA appear to have by-passed these essential earlier stages of public

debate and policy formulation. Benchmarks could, in some instances, been set without the

benefit of such deliberations. The present situation, with respect to MOLSAMD's draft

strategy, is that it is both vague and inconclusive probably because the vital stage of

careful policy review and re-formulation has not been undertaken.

1.5 Skills developmentThe National Skills Development Program (NSDP), currently led by the MOLSAMD, is one

of a number of new National Priority Programmes (NPPs) announced in 2004.

The NSDP, as one of its skills sector capacity development strands of activity, has introduced

an innovative and transparent process of skills development throughout the country that is

aimed at using a variety of implementing partners, both Government and Non-Government, to

deliver courses linked to known local labour market needs. However, the NSDP has faced

some constraints in terms of the absence of quantitative and qualitative LMI data and poor

coordination among certain stakeholders.

Although more and more information is being collected, and training providers are being

registered, there remains inadequate local-level intelligence relating to employment

opportunities and training potential available.

There is reference in the MOLSAMD strategy to the NSDP being expected to provide trainingfor the range of market forces jobs found in different economic sectors but in fact the NSDPsmain role, as clearly described in its strategy document, is to build the overarchingmanagement system for skills development. The strand which facilitates training throughpartner agencies will diminish as the agencies themselves adopt good practice, becomeaccredited through the NSDP-developed accreditation system and achieve high levels ofemployment placement and thus win fees and other grant funding for themselves, based ongood performance.

One of the strategies the NSDP is using at the moment is to ensure that training providers arerequired to have identified employment opportunities, before contracts awarded, but given that

there has been little data upon which to make decisions NSDSP has elected to use rapidassessments of employment demand based on local and focused needs.

Priorities for NSDP include the responsibility to develop policy strategies and skilled personnel

for national and international labour markets. 4 Such policies need to be conceived, developed,debated, legislated and provided with appropriate enabling regulations as soon as possible andit is hoped that the forthcoming World Bank Project, which is addressing TVET policy and

4 op. cit., p3



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qualification level and framework issues, will assist in moving forward on this as soon aspossible. Clear policies will impact the way the LMI is collected, determine its application andinform those undertaking the surveys.

1.6 Labour market informationThe initial LMI review study being implemented in collaboration with the NSDP faces similarconundrums. What level of LM review is useful and to whom is it to be directed? Who needs

this review and what value has it other than recording the past attempts to provide specific data

for particular purposes? Is the review a preliminary activity that is intended to provide a base-

line for a more comprehensive labour market survey? In fact the review can only record what

has happened in the past in an anecdotal form as the reports and related documentation

included in this document have been prepared for somewhat different purposes.

The capacity building aspect of the LMIA Unit needs to be addressed and decisions made

regarding staffing for data collection, entry and analysis, and how this links to the role of the

Central Statistics Office. If there is to be any sustainability this needs careful attention and,

among other, the following questions need to be addressed.

Who will provide focus and direction to MOLSAMD's LMIA Unit as it evolves over

time?

What is the responsibility and scope of the MOLSAMD with respect to LMI in the

broader context?

What is the most appropriate level of intervention for the LMIA Unit at this stage of

the countrys development?

Answers to these questions are expected to emerge during the mid-stages of building the LMIA

Unit. 5

1.7 Human Resource Development (HRD)HRD planning, assuming it is based on a policy/strategy that is understood by those affected orimpacted, requires that Government make HRD policy decisions based on an agreed nationaldevelopment strategy. Subsequent analysis is then required by a wide range of relevantministries prior to determining amount and quantum of resources each requires prior to theformulation of a strategy to implement the policy. The private sector is also a party to anyagreed HRD policies. This, it is assumed, equates to the processes being applied in theimplementation of the I-ANDS.

A national approach to HRD could benefit by using, as a model, the strategy adopted by theNSDP. Training is crosscutting, provides linkages with each level of the education system andallows for vertical and horizontal mobility of workers. Delivery is provided by public andprivate implementing partners. Training is offered to anyone wishing to attend as there arevery few courses that have prerequisites. A gender balance is ought to ensure equitabledistribution of economic opportunity. An accredited certification system that extends acrossthe formal, non formal and informal sectors of the economy is also being developed. AnyHRD plans should consider this approach.

5 ILO Convention 122, Article 1, papa, 2 suggests that The said policy shall take account of the

stage and level of economic development and the mutual relationships between employmentopportunities and other economic and social objectives, and shall be perused by methods thatare appropriate to national conditions and practices.



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1.8 Interim Afghanistan National Development Strategy (I-ANDS)A review of several individual ministry strategy documents for I-ANDS with respect to HRDplans provides a clear example of different approaches each is taking to ensure there issufficient capacity within their individual structures to provide the various public services. 6

The strategic document of the Ministry of Women's Affairs explains that sustainingmechanisms and support systems " will largely draw support from non-state entities, such asthe international community, NGOs and other sectors of civil society" The document quotesthe I-ANDS political vision which states that "the Government of Afghanistan continues to seeNon-government Organizations (NGOs) as essential partners in our development efforts andwill continue to support their work in Afghanistan". This reliance on external support is alsoreferred to in the "The Afghanistan Compact which embodies a commitment from theinternational community to support the Government". 7 Similarly the Ministry of Agricultureand Irrigation's programmes, acknowledging capacity short falls, are heavily reliant uponforeign technical assistance. It is likely that other Ministries are addressing the HRD needs in asimilar manner.

In each case it must be remembered that the withdrawal of international expertise is inevitable.International experience suggests that NGOs should not be expected to assume responsibilityfor, or be considered alternatives to Government. 8 Any HRD programme, whether at nationalor Ministry level must be prepared for such contingencies?

1.9 DefinitionsAs a guide to describing the terms used in this review related to the labour market inAfghanistan this review draws heavily on the definitions provided by the United Kingdom's

Overseas Development Association. 9

Labour market information: The total set of documents that contain labour market signals,indicators and intelligence.

Labour market signals: Discrete pieces of raw evidence in any format.

Labour market indicators: The various signals that when processed and linked withother data can assist in identifying trends or directions in

the labour market.

Labour market intelligence: The types of information that is gleaned from conversations,

meetings, professional seminars, workshops the media and

compared with statistically based data and research.

Labour market analysis: The processes used to review, statistically manipulate and

compare with other sources to determine trends directions

and sector needs.

Human resource planning: Activities that utilize the findings of LM analysis plus other

sources to influence future decisions concerning policies and

6 See Agency Coordinating Body for Afghan Relief (ACBAR), www.acbar.org/display7 See Strategy for the Ministry of Womens Affairs for the Afghan National Development

Strategy, (Draft), March 2007, p10.8 This conclusion, whilst considered to be an unfair criticism of NGOs is in fact the fault of

governments who surrender responsibility to NGOs without insisting on a timeline for capacitybuilding national staff for activities that should always be managed by Government. This isespecially relevant to the development of the LMIA unit where capacity is being developed,albeit slowly.

9 Gray et. al., (1996), p6.



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practices.

Labour market

information system: Information relating to all levels of human resources

regardless of formal qualifications skill level or economic

sector.

Skills assessment survey: The collection of available skills within the labour force

Training& employmentneeds assessment: The collection of data on the availability of trained labour to

match employer's skill requirements.

Data: A representation of facts, concepts, or instructions in aformalized manner suitable for communication,

interpretation, or processing by humans or by automatedmeans. 10

The lack of a common set of terminology when identifying and describing economic sectorsand occupations has been noted in some reports and information reviewed and as such will be amajor constraint when quantitative analysis is required. The descriptive narrative and level ofdisaggregating of some data in reports varies as does the description of economic sectors

throughout the various sources referred to in this review. Not only does the terminology usedlack precision, there are varying professional differences of opinion as to what commonly usedterms are appropriate. Advice and guidelines on the nomenclature that is preferred should bedeveloped and assistance provided to direct those responsible for future studies, ifcommissioned by the Government, so that a common set of terms can be used. The definitionof data is also biased toward the search for quantitative data rather than the more qualitativeinformation n needed to make sensible judgements.

1.10 Capacity buildingThis report, a labour market supply and demand study based on selected secondary sources,was also intended as a contribution to the capacity building of a viable and sustainable LabourMarket Information and Analysis (LMIA) Unit within the MOLSAMD. The report is also arequirement under the I-ANDS as noted in Section four (education) of Pillar three withinVolume 1. This document indicates that the education programme will have four strands, oneof which is to develop an effective skills development system that is responsive to labourmarket needs''. 11 This is to be supported in part from information to be provided by the LMIAUnit. Reference to the need for such information is noted when mention was made to the keycharacteristics of the Afghan economy highlighting that there" ... continues to be seriousdeficiencies in the data availability and coverage, in particular with regard. labour marketstatistics and employment in particular. 12

What appears to be a serious deficiency is the lack of capacity, not just within MOLSA but in

most government ministries. LMI data from several agencies were simply not available and

the Central Statistics Office, whilst most willing to share their work, have yet to complete the

national census so that subsequent surveys can be conducted based on suitable statisticalframes. Without such frames the basis for any sampling that would sufficiently rigorous to be

statistically analyzed, is absent. Therefore the basis for gathering data on the labour market

demand and supply will continue for the foreseeable future, to be a pragmatic and limited to

10 See sam.d gs.ca.gov/ TOC/4800/4 819.2. htm

11 See I-ANDS, Executive summary, p9, para. 2

12 See I-ANDS, Vol. I, p 43, para3.



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location or sector based activity focused on selected economic activities. MOLSAMDs

capacity will take several years to establish and additional time to mature.

Such data gathering approaches, whilst adequate for the purposes of supporting the work of the

NSDP and other stakeholders, will be limited to short term objectives and be project and/or

sub-economic sector based. The sectors within NSDP currently being focused on cover (i)

agriculture, (ii) services, (iii) construction (iv) business & commerce and (v) industry. Therange of courses being delivered by NSDP and the expectation that there will be additional

demand based courses suggests that there will be additional sectors of the economy included in

the near future. 13

1.11 Labour market information and analysis unit (LMIAU)

The current organization of the Ministry does not include an LMIA Unit. As a

recommendation this Unit is seen best located in Department of Manpower and

Employment. The structure of the LMIA Unit at present consists of a manager, an assistant

manager and three staff. None have any background in labour market information and

analysis. Further staff is being recruited.

The expectation is that the LMIA Unit will be able to define the scope and purpose of any LMI

by ensuring that the potential users have data and analysis that can inform decisions that

positively impact individual, corporate and government ministries in a form that will have a

positive impact on various sectors of the economy.

The recognition and involvement of potential users in the construction and maintenance of the

LMI system's network of information sources is also an essential ingredient in ensuring

sustainability. These sources are found in both the public and private sector and often in

international organizations having economic ties to the country.

For the LMIS to be useful to as many beneficiaries as is practical it is necessary to identify

who it is that requires the information, in what form they require it when it is needed and howoften this infol111ation is to be updated. The following components are required assuming

there is a set of user's criteria clearly defined:

Clearly identified sources of reliable LM signals, indicators and intelligence,

LMI that describes supply and demand data in a form that can be manipulated to

respond to a variety of queries and questions, A sound set of procedures resulting in LM data that, when collected and analyzed can,

if necessary can be replicated,

For the system to function properly suitable ICT hardware and software is

required. The extent of the ICT will be determined by the Government in

accordance with the priorities given to the needs as decided by the l-ANDS.

Typically this would require:

Sufficient and suitable financial allocations to maintain an ICT network of offices,

13 Training in the skills required for the power, water and transportation sectors for the basic

infrastructure mentioned in I-ANDS, Vol. I, Section 5.4.3, p 76, and the needs of the miningand extractive industry, see Sect. 5.4.4, p 91, will also need to be addressed at specific sectorlevel. These sectors are mentioned again and in more detail in Vol. I, Chapter 8 of I-ANDS,



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Suitably located offices and associated staff positions to sustain a critical mass within

the DOL network of offices

Adequate transportation and ancillary office equipment,

Appropriate financial allocations to promote and publicize the role andexpanded of the LM office network

Capacity building of staff through targeted staff development and accession planning

for all key posts in the DOL's LM network.

1.12 Existing capacityAssuming there is no significant increase in resources, both human and financial, and assessingthe existing capacity of staff allocated to the LMIA Unit within the MOL SAMD it is unlikelythat the present incumbents will be able to provide adequate analysis leading to future andsubstantive policy formulation. Given this limitation the work to be implemented in the currentproject may need to restrict the focus to sub-sector based demand and supply surveys linked toexisting known and certified training provider assessments of demand under NSDP.

1.13 Bench marksThe particular bench mark that is driving the rush to complete this report is found at Chapter 8,Economic and Social Development, Sector 4, Education, Culture, Media and SportProgramme 3, Skills Development. It states that: "A human resource study will be compliedby Jaddi 1385 (2006) and 150,000 men and women will be trained in marketable skills through

public and private means by Jaddi 1389 (end-2010)" 14

1.14 Project PhasesThe LM study will be undertaken in two phases. The first phase will provide a review of

available information on the supply and demand for skilled labour. 14

The second phase will commence to build capacity within the MOLSAMD's LMIA Unit.As mentioned earlier a series of sub-sector and pragmatically designed surveys of demand

will be conducted. 15 The explanatory passage following the bench mark explains that the

"Government will conduct a national skills assessment survey, establish advisorycommittees to oversea the development of the VET programme and accelerate the NSDP".16

There are a number of Ministries which have training programs to suit their own particularneeds. Many of these are specific to their mandate. For example police, essential services,

para- medical staff, power generation & distribution, road building, maintenance and repair

14

This requirement was discussed with Mr. Nematullah Bizhan of I-ANDS. This expectation wasunrealistic given the current capacity of the staff provided from within MOLSAMD. It wasagreed that an outline of an action plan could be submitted as part of this report on secondarysources. If those concepts are agreed then a meeting of the key stakeholders would beconvened to advise on revisions to the strategy currently in place.

15 See the Terms of Reference for this project supported by the NSDP project . p4.

16 See I-ANDS, p138. The call for a national skills assessment survey within the LMIA project is

just one of several references to a survey. The scope of the survey being proposed needs tobe set by whom-ever requests it. At this point in time it is not clear to the LMIA Unit justexactly who will be covered.



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etc., are all needed to support the Governments policies. From the perspective of the LMIA

Unit and its scope, these are considered as separate.

The structure of the I-ANDS document, especially Pillar Three, suggests that the authors did

not appreciate the significance of employment and skills development within the overall

national development strategy. The issue of ownership within the Government and

responsibility between ministries and within departments, for employment and skillsdevelopment, is also one that will continue to cause complications in the future. This is evident

within Chapter 8 on Economic & Social Development where the sector strategy for Social

Protection contains benchmarks for vulnerable groups. 17

A separate and distinct section devoted to the issues related to employment and skills

development, would have the added benefit of focusing in a holistic manner on sustainability

issues and make the best use of the human capital available across all ministries. This would be

more likely to provide the depth and breadth required to promote the expectations of I-ANDS.

The fact that the I-ANDS Volume I document has determined that the function of skillsdevelopment and labour market information and analysis, both of which are components of anyestablished a national employment and training system, are relegated to a sub-level withinPillar three is also disconcerting. By doing so it is viewed as a subset of "education and theministries with responsibility for the formal education system, namely the Ministry ofEducation (MOE) and Ministry of Higher education (MOHE), would not traditionally wish toassume this overall responsibility for coordination of LMI. Afghanistan will be no exception.

17 See Vol. I, Chapter *, Section 8.6, programmes 1 to 5, pp 152-154.



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2 Review methodology

2.1 Preparatory researchAs a means of clarifying what was the current thinking in the labour market information

field, a document search was made to find a methodology which was considered suitable

for developing countries such as Afghanistan. One which is thought appropriate was

prepared by a five-man team of experienced professionals for the Overseas Development

Association (Gray, et.aI., 1996). The document highlighted three main concerns in

establishing LMI systems in developing countries.

First was the fact that there is considerable support from labour economists for the useof signalling methods designed to produce indicators more related to quality issuesthan for use in quantitative forecasting". The emphasis in some more developedcountries was to focus on statistical methods based on sampling etc as the only meansof forecasting

Second was the continued use of supply--dominated approaches used to determineenrolments, rather than a more balanced approach that ret1ects the realities of the

labour market and one that acknowledges social expectations. The third concern was the revelation that in developing countries there vas a

serious lack of sufficiently trained staff at each level of the LMI &A system.

The conclusions drawn were that the capacity of staff and the Government systems already in

place, to absorb the nuances, develop the expertise and sustain a realistic and dynamic LMI

system that would provide micro, meso and macro level analysis, takes years to accomplish.

Staff needs to be continuously maintaining and sustaining networks with the range of sources

from which data and intelligence can be gleaned. Resources to accomplish this are rarely

sufficiently allocated in developing countries. Afghanistan and in particular the MOLSAMD,

having never had to resource such a function, must acknowledge this and institutionalize the

costs of establishing the Unit. The MOLSAMD must then plan to identify and retain suitably

qualified and sufficient numbers of LMI&A staff when developing the ministry's overallstrategic plan. Budget requirements, if not available internally must be provided for from

donors until the national budget for an LMIA Unit can be institutionalized.

2.2 Desk studyThis in-country review is based on a wide variety of documentation produced by various

Government ministries, United Nations agencies, bilateral donors, non government and private

sector organizations and development banks. Each contributor/author/agency, when

commissioning the work or producing the information themselves, have specific goals,

objectives and target audiences. Although most of the qualitative information is useful to a

wider audience, the quantitative data gleaned was not always in a form that could be utilized or

be of direct relevance to the needs of the LMIA Unit. The source of the information reviewedon each of the main training providers shown in ANNEX-A. 18

As part of the preliminary activities of the LMIA Unit's activities the extent to which existing

and separate data was available was first explored. The results clearly demonstrate that whilst

18 The information is a synthesis of a number of other sources compiled by NSDP and ACBAR

and also as a result of interviews with key implementing partners of NSDP.



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the key documents and data are a valuable resource, the coverage of most was focused on

specific target groups, particular needs and a set number of locations. With the exception ofthe National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of 2005, none cover the nation for reasons

which are well documented. Typically the sources of this information and data couldcome from any of the following and/or additional sources. 19

19 Covering this many possibilities has not been possible in the time made available to compile

this report. It should also be noted that the process of collecting data is a continuous one. Therevised structure of the LMIA unit will have personnel specifically assigned to that task,



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Sources of LM intelligence and data

TABLE One

No General type Produced by1.0 Demographic data

1.1 Census data Central Statistics Office (CSO)

1.2 Registrations of births death and marriage Ministry of Justice (MOJ)

2.0 Labour force supply2.1 Graduate records of the education system MOE

2.2 Graduate records of the University system MOHE

2.3 Drop-out data from the various levels of formaland non formal education

MOEd, MOHE,

2.4 Foreign work permits MOLSAMD

2.5 Household surveys CSO

2.6 Establishment surveys CSO2.7 Economic sector surveys Various

2.8 Benefits records Government, Army, privatesector, etc.

2.9 Refugees returning & internally displacedpeople.

UNHCR, MRR

2.10 Private proprietary training providers Ministry of Commerce (MOC)2.11 Skill development training records National Skills development

Project2.12 Non Government Training providers Various

2.13 Vacancy notices ACBAR NGO3.0 Labour market demand

3.1 Public employment service centre records Employment Service Centres ofMOLSA

3.2 Private employment service centre records Private sources3.3 Vacancy notices, newspapers, other media Various media outlets

3.4 Migrant & alien registration records MOFA,3.5 Entering and departing working foreign

nationals

MOFA, MOI. MOLSAMD

3.6 Immigration and emigration records Ministry of Refugees &Returnees (MRR)

4.0 Professional bodies

4.1 Registration of members Professional level organizations

4.2 Registration of members Special interest groups4.3 Registration of members Employers organizations

4.4 Registration of members Workers organizations

4.5 Research from Universities Various, MOHE, MOFA.

5.0 Other statutory/International bodies5.1 Project development activities Bilateral donors/embassies5.2 Project development activities Development Banks

5.3 Project development activities United Nations Organizations5.4 Project development activities Non Government Organizations

5.5 Project development activities International Security ForceAfghanistan, ProvincialReconstruction Teams, ProvincialDevelopment Committees

5.6 Project development activities Private consultants, Internationalaid agencies.Philanthropic organizations.



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This list is not exhaustive. The networking required to keep abreast of these, and otherpotential sources of information and data, and deciding which should be prioritized, is ajudgment that must be made depending on the focus of the survey to be undertaken. This willbe a central and on-gong function of the LMIA Unit.

2.3 Reports reviewed Agnew, M, (2003). Afghanistan Labour Market Information Survey, prepared by the

International Rescue Committee in association with the Ministry of Labour and Social

Affairs.

Purpose: To provide (skills development) programmes" ... with reliable and

valid data on which to base (IRC) decisions regarding supporting

appropriate kinds of training ...

Survey methodology Multi stage sampling based on market linkages between urban and

rural locations taking account of the demographics, geographic

location and economic variances.

Sample Locations Thirteen provinces having forty-two districts. IRC supported activities

in the central, eastern, northern and western regions.

Analysis This report is the first available and substantial set of LMI. It

provided an insight into the situation facing NGOs wishing to deliver

a sound demand driven programme. It pointed out that whilst the data

may not be "statistically robust" the intention was to provide

information that would be sufficiently detailed enough to allow

training providers to focus on skills needed in the local market.

Conclusions This report by IRC is quoted in all subsequent documents and,assuming that there is no national census data available, is considered

a suitable model for the conduct of future LM surveys. A number of

institutions within the Government and in the private sector are now

able to contribute with additional advice and expertise and in any

future surveys including AICC, ALTAl, CSO, MOC, PDT and

USAID.

Supply & Demand The information is extensive and the various factors impacting supply

and demand employment opportunities were described in detail. The

data is presented as percentages based on the samples of those

surveyed. Labour demand was also generally described by level of

skill with no specific numbers being provided. Specific selfemployment opportunities for each of the four regions were based on

families surveyed. Supply side data was treated in the same way.

Afghanistan International Chamber of Commerce, (2006) National Business Agenda,Kabul



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Purpose: To put forward a public statement of the most important policy

issues affecting the country's business community.

Survey methodology

& Sample NA

Locations National. Covers the position of the business communitythroughout the Country.

Analysis This is in fact what could be classified as a green paper. 20It provided

the Government with a series of issues that are of concern to the

business community. The role of the AICC in preparing this

document was to " ... ensure that the Government will follow through

on its commitments".

The report suggests that the emphasis in terms of employable skills

should include training for agriculture, health care, plus road related

construction skills such as the building of bridges, culverts, rural

electrification and irrigation.

Conclusion There are a number of similar organizations representing the businesscommunity. The Afghanistan Investment Support Agency (AISA),The Afghanistan Womens Business Federation (AWBF), PeaceDividend Trust (PDT), all have member lists. Many of them wouldconduct training of some sort or other. Whether the training adds tothe skills bank of the country or the profitability of the enterprise is notan issue at this time. However when competition between companiesincreases good workers tend to become more mobile. The staffinglevels of some of these companies clearly indicate the genderdistribution; they do not show additional demand figures. Thesewould need to be part of any future survey.Whilst some are in close collaboration with AICC others appear to be

in competition. As the business community is a major employer. TheLMIA Unit needs to align itself with these various bodies and involvethem in the discussions on the future benefits and experience that thisgroup can offer to improve the efficiency and operation.

Supply &Demand Data NA

ALTAI Consulting (2004): USAID Strategy: Private Sector Needs Assessment.

Purpose: An evaluation of needs of the informal sector and entrepreneurs

as a means of strengthening the urban private sector

Scope: Informal sector businesses in five major urban areas.

Survey Methodology& Sample In-depth personal interviews, 20 focus group discussions. Small (0-9)

medium (10-40) and large enterprises (40+) totaling 448 enterprises.

20 Green papers are those prepared to alert the Government that there are issues, concerns or

problems in the community. The source could be from a Ministry research unit, an employersorganization, a community pressure group, an NGO etc. In the case of AICC they are flaggingthe concerns of the business community to government.



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Location Jalalabad Mazar-e- Sharif Kabul. Herat KandaharAnalysis The report reflected the views at that time on banking, access to credit,

the role of Government, the impact of the internationalcommunity on business, corruption and taxation. The discussions onskills development revealed that whilst most were confident that theirworkers were competent they would encourage additional training if

available. The report also stressed that the core skills of reliability,intelligence, obedience far outweigh the education qualifications whenselecting staff.

Conclusion The informal sector and even those who would register as SMEs are

not seeking to hire skilled workers but prefer to train on the job

through apprenticeships. It is acknowledged that a number of NSDP

implementing partners use this approach supported by off job training.21

Supply & Demand NA

Data

Altai Consulting, (2006). Integration of Returnees in the Afghan Labour Market, study

commissioned by ILO and UNHCR, funded by the EC.

Purpose: To provide profiles of the refugees who have returned, to gauge the

impact they have on the labour market and the effectiveness of past

and current support programmes and to recommend policy options to

facilitate reintegration into the labour market.

Survey methodology Household surveys (600), & sample enterprise/household surveys

(100), case studies (25), focus group discussions (15) and key

informant interviews (15). In percentage terms there was a 65 urban to

35 rural distribution for the household surveys. These were conducted

in locations were it was known refugees were predominant.

Location Herat. Kabul Jalalabad.

Analysis A large amount of general data was provided related to the socio-

economic situation of sampled refugees. Household data: Education

was seen as a major factor contributing to lack of resources with 80

percent of those surveyed having no more than lower secondary level.

Employment data suggested that approximately one third wereengaged in economic activity and of that number twenty percent were

unpaid. Integration was constrained by lack of income and personalor professional networks were preferred when finding a job. The

report disputes the unemployment percentages quoted in the IRC

21 The definition of apprenticeship in the Afghan context differs considerably from the European

model. In Pakistan it is known as Ustard-Shagird or master learner where a young person isplaced with a skilled worker to learn a skill. This is often the only way of receiving practicaltraining from a master. This is appropriate at this stage of the countrys development but it canlead to exploitation of young people, many of whom may be under the legal working age.



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report preferring to support a lower figure.

Establishment data: though acknowledged as limited, i.e. not able to

be generalized across the country, the report does provide insights into

the way enterprises operate. The report suggests that employers were

not able to articulate the needs adequately and that most would

probably be seeking to recruit fully skilled people. Caution was urged

in the use of numbers quoted in the report for future recruitment.

Conclusion The report is a useful document for the UNHCR and ILO as it

provides insights on how best to integrate refugees. The household

survey to be conducted by the CSO in 2008 will hopefully capture the

data needed to put the data in its proper perspective.

Supply & Demand There are obviously large numbers of refugees requiring work and

similarly data on those without skills are high. Predictions on the

numbers returning were not specified.

Beall,J & Schutte. S, (June 2006). Dwindling industry: Growing poverty:Urban Livelihoods in Afghanistan, a report for the Afghan Research and

Evaluation Unit, Kabul, funded by the EC.

Scope: The report draws on the findings of five (5) individual studies

conducted earlier that same year in the main urban population centers.

Survey methodology A series of longitudinal studies in three cities, using a sample of 40

& Sample households, over the period to observe poverty related issues and how

communities cope, adapt and change over a period of a year in three

locations. Short term studies in the remaining two used group

discussions with representatives of local communities

Location Hera1- Jalalabad, Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif& Pul-e Khumri.

Analysis: The focus of the report is on the plight of the urban poor and presents a

clear, if somewhat gloomy picture of the impact of urbanization in the

country. Land tenure, housing and security of tenure/ownership are

described as being a key component in stabilizing the urban

population. Public services are described as weak or non-existent,

among them education, or lack of it due to (i) the availability of school

places (ii) the discrimination against girls and (iii) the need, in many

instances for children to work The diversity of occupations found

resulted in a general grouping of livelihood activities for those studiedinto three groups, namely self-employment, casual wage labour and

home-based work. It is entirely feasible that one family and

individuals within it could be engaged in all three.

Conclusion LM surveys will need to be very clear and (i) acknowledge the

problem of working children (ii) and hence identifying the

occupation(s) of respondents multiple sources of employment (iii)



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decide on an acceptable and agreed national definition and making

the distinction between employed and unemployed and (iv)

distinguish the differences resulting from insufficient education and

poor health, especially with the poor, in generating sufficient income

to lift themselves out of poverty.

Supply & Demand The report, and those from which it draws it's material, provide data inconsiderable detail on the types of employment predominant in the

communities studied. Actual number is not provided nor are there any

demand side projections.

International Security Assistance Force, (2007). Provincial reconstruction TeamHandbook, Kabul. 22

Purpose: To consolidate information available from the Government, ISAF,

CFC-A, UNAMA, and international development agencies and to

outline guiding principles and proven best practices that ProvincialReconstruction Teams (PRTs) should draw upon in designing and

implementing its various local strategies.

Survey Methodology NA

& sample

Location Twenty-five (25) PRTs cover (31) provinces

Analysis The ISAF team responsible for the compilation of their database have

collected and provided a massive amount of information in electronic

format. The information is extremely detailed and will continue to

expand. In addition ISAF is introducing standard operating

procedures that will provide data on any training that is to be part ofall ISAF procurement contracts. This is to support the Afghan First

policy that focuses on the utilization of local services, purchases of

local goods and services, development of local skills and encourages

competition. Such data will add to the supply side of the equation.

Conclusion The work of the PRTs in collaboration with the Provincial

Development Committees provides a link at the provincial level to key

informants mentioned in this report who would supply the information

and data collection required by the LMIA Unit. The benefit to the

LMIA Unit is that this information and data is in MS -Excel format

and the intention is to eventually offer this to CSO. This is another

reason to insist that the LMIA Unit's maintains linkages with a rangeof potential partners. However once it is passed over to Government it

will need to be maintained.

Supply & Demand Numerical data, along with the existing broad range of data

22 Whilst not strictly a demand and supply study it is included because it is an important source of

information. The linkages found in the electronic data base are extensive. It will greatly enhance thegathering of local intelligence on the labour market.



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information and training provided by ISAF, to skills available in

the various communities, will be available in the near future. This

quantitative information will be a valuable source of data.

Ministry of WomensAffairs (2007). Women and men in Afghanistan: A handbook

on Baseline Statistics on Gender, Kabul.

Purpose: To establish a statistical data base that would help strengthen

advocacy, planning and policy making from a gender perspective,

especially within government.

Survey Methodology

& Sample Inter-Ministerial working group meetings, review of 56 studies and

publications as a basis for developing a gender policy framework.

Location National

Analysis: The tabulations mentioned below are sourced from the CSO, 2006Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook. The emphasis is on gender

balance. The report provides an overview of the population of 23.6

million. The sex ratio between females and males across the settled

population demonstrates the impact of the war with males being less

than females between 24 and 44 years of age. A separate table

displays the distribution of the total population by 5 year age groups

and sex. It demonstrates that between 15 and 34 years there are 6.4

million people in that age range. The literacy rate of the population

was estimated at 15.8 percent for females and 31 percent for males.

Tables generated on female participation rates in the public service

are less than twenty (20) percent except in the Ministries of Public

Health (22.7), Education (37.3), Labour & Social Affairs (50.2) and

Women's Affairs at (99.2). Other participation rates vary as widely

in favour of males. Assessment of the information on education

subsequent tables shows the imbalance in favour of males at every

level. Technical & Vocational figures for 2005 were equally

skewed toward males.

Conclusion: The document is a useful tool to remind those engaged in data

collection that disagreggation of data to reflect gender balance is an

important statistic. The proposed LM survey must ensure that the data

collected reflects these differences.

Supply & Demand: Data was generated from the CSO Statistics Yearbook and does notprovide specific numbers.

(NSS) National Surveillance System). 2007. The National Risk & Vulnerability

Assessment, 2005, Afghanistan, Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development and

the Central Statistics Office, Kabul



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Purpose: At the macro level to gather information to update and guide policy-

making decisions in development programmes and to improve the

efficacy of sector level interventions. A further operational objective

was " ... To collect information at community and household level to

better understand livelihoods of Kuchi, rural and urban households

throughout the country, and to determine the types of risks and

vulnerabilities they face...

Survey Methodology Sample of 30,882 households across all provinces adjusted

& Sample using Jawzjan as a base analytical domain to account for wide

variations in the number of households in each province.

Administration of a household questionnaire having 18 sections, 14 of

which were addressed exclusively to males. This was applied in 12

households per community. Information was also gathered at

community level with separate discussions outside the house.

Location National

Analysis This is national in scope. The content and the time taken toundertake the assessment is extensive and points out a wide range of

issues of relevance to the proposed labour market a survey. The data

collected is extensive, especially as it relates to the socio-economic

situation of households. Education rates, literacy and school

attendance numbers are provided. The data mentioned in earlier

reports is again provided here and varies, possibly because it is from

a statistically based sample, marginally. The differences in estimates

based on different sources at different times from the perspective of

employment demand and supply of skilled workers is, at this stage

should not be a detriment to proceeding with any LM survey.

Conclusion The depth and detail of this assessment is beyond the capacity of the

MOLSA LMIA Unit at this time. Where the report is valuable from

the MOLSAMD's point of view is that the rural areas of the country

and the astonishing lack of even the most basic services means that the

level of skills required in these areas must be pitched to the correct

level within the appropriate economic sector, and must take account of

the local livelihood needs of the beneficiaries.

Supply & demand data Specific data is available on the NSS website: http://www.nss-

afghanistan.com/index. php

Patel, S. &Ross. S, (2007). Breaking Point: Measuring progress in Afghanistan.

Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.

Purpose: To provide a balanced perspective incorporating local voices to obtain

a measure of those elements that matter most, not what is most easily

quantifiable or collectable and the presentation of large an mounts of



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data in a digestible form

Survey Methodology Use of structured conversations in 17 Provinces; thirteen surveys, polls

and

& Sample focus groups, 200 expert interviews and monitoring of 70 media

sources and 182 organizations.

Locations National and international locations.

Analysis The document is a second in a series that assesses progress of the

government's overall comprehensive development strategy by

measuring improvements in five areas: security, governance and

participation, justice and accountability economic conditions and

social services and infrastructure. The thesis proposed is that the

current centralized control over these development activities would

be better served if the process could be devolved to the local

communities and justifies this by suggesting that when these issues

were discussed with the participants the response was that " .the

needs were still too great, the state too weak, and the modalities ofinternational aid too static and slow".

Conclusion The concept of decentralizing the responsibility for development to the

appropriate level has some parallels with the methods used by some

NGOs, and especially donors such as USAID who have implemented

successful projects at local level with minimal interference from the

Government or the UN. By going to the source of the information and

collecting both local qualitative and quantitative data, the impact, or

lack of it, can be measured at that level.

Examples of the types of questions used to determine the

employment of respondents were comprehensive but not

quantified. The parallels for MOLSAMD is that the most efficient

and effective way to gather LMI is to adopt a similar strategy and

to quantify it based on adequate statistical frames and samples.

Supply &Demand There are no figures on supply or demand. Percentages of

unemployed data and rates of under-employment were mentioned.

USAID, (2007). Labour Market, Livelihood Strategies and Food security in

Afghanistan,: a special report by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Purpose: To gain a better understanding of labour markets and labour-based livelihood strategies.

Survey Methodology Review of existing literature and data sets

Sample: Population-wide on those affected by issues related to food security

across the country,

Location: Five southern provinces and eight in the central region.



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Analysis: The report provides useful insights into the pressures facing the people

living in the different locations in respect of food security, It points out

that whilst the supply of food is a critical issue, the coping

mechanisms of the population in various provinces on income

earning/livelihoods has lead to migration of workers, illegal crops and

exploitation by land owners.

Conclusion The report suggests that the people affected are also unaware of anymechanisms in place to assist them to alleviate the situation withrespect to livelihoods. The establishment of network consisting of avariety of actors interested improving the LMI is needed at the locallevel.

Supply & Demand A useful model for the monitoring: the labour market was

Data: developed and this has direct implications proposed

LM study being developed by the MOLSA,

Wickramasekara, P., Segal, J., Mehran, F., Noroozi, L., & Eisazadeh, S., (2006).

Afghan Households in Iran, Profile & Impact, commissioned by ILO from UNHCR and

funded by the EC.

Purpose: To gain greater insight into the dynamics of the Afghanpopulation and their impact in Iran, especially in the Iranianlabour market.

Survey methodology: Survey of households, establishments, case studies of selectedhouseholds in Tehran and a review of secondary sources.

Sample: Households: 1540 households in 10 cities from seven (7)provinces using a "snowballing" approach was adopted,

Establishments: A total of 4,600 questionnaires were distributedas follows: Employers 1049, Iranian workers 1,261, Afghanworkers 2,102, 248 were discarded as they were consideredunreliable or incomplete, Case studies in 25 households inTehran

Location: Four major population centers workers were known tocongregate,

Analysis: The report indicates that the numbers of Afghans officially in Iran asrefuges has declined steadily over the last six (6) years. As of January

2006 over 920,000 are thought to have remained. Of that number is

estimated that some 400,000 are economically active and about ten(10) percent are women. Those working are concentrated in

construction, manufacturing and trading, each requiring a low skills

set. Agriculture isnot a preferred occupation among population. If

the sampling is considered sufficiently robust the data in this report

may be generalized across the Afghan refugee community. The issue

for the MOLSA is the need to have a returnee profile, if and when they

return, to monitor them so they can be counseled on potential local job



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locations.

Conclusion: The majority of refugees are concentrated in a major group ISCO

group headed "craft and related trade workers". The need to be clear

when using ISCO is essential. It raises again the point that the

training of enumerators is not to be taken lightly, and those inputting

the data must also be carefully monitored as mistakes in classifyingworkers reduces the quality and hence the value of analysis.

Supply & Demand The returnee numbers are not clearly stated as the timing is not known.

Data The LMIA Unit must be in contact with UHCR to follow up on

returnees..



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3 Secondary Supply Sources

3.1 General population DataGiven that the estimated number of people was 23.5 million in 2005, and that half were under

25 years of age, mechanisms must be, put in place to provide gainful employment, not just overthe near term, but the medium and long-term future. 23 The essential first step in any LM study

is to analyze the characteristics, structure, size, distribution and peculiarities of the population.

This is conditional upon the availability of a census, or in the case of the LMI for the NSDP, a

labour force survey using a stratified sample of households, neither of which will be available

in Afghanistan for at least two or possibly three years.24 The number of economically active is

not known. Nor is it likely that there are there any reliable and comprehensive data from

organizations purporting to be responsible for the registration of businesses. 25

3.2 General education pictureIn attempting to track the new entrants to the work force it is essential to have data on the

outputs of public institutions. This stretches from primary through the secondary and

eventually to the tertiary level. General education students exceeded 6 million in 1386. General

education schools totaled 6218, general secondary 1745, general high schools 1259; a total of

9222 establishments.

The main suppliers of new entrants to the labour market with a qualification are the MOE.Human Development Indicator's however suggest that there are large numbers, some 66percent of youth, (i.e. those between 15 and 24) who are illiterate. Drop outs are also a majorsource of new entrants and no doubt the numbers and percentages for both merge and overlap.It is this group and the larger number of adults who are seeking income, when combined thatpresents the largest challenge for establishing any balanced labour force supply and demand

structure.

The ratios of male to female averaged 64/36. The number of dropouts showed

similar ratios with a total of 134,486 leaving in 1385. Of that number

approximately 89,000 did not get past grade five. 26 In the provinces of Helmond,

Uruzgan and Zabul the ratio of females attending school was below 10 percent.

The following tables provide more detail and are self explanatory.

23 See CSOs Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, (2006), p 10

24 Discussion with the CSO director in June 2007.

25 Summary of discussions with AICC, PDT, AISI, MOC etc

26 Source: Ministry of Education tables provided by the EMIS unit June 2007.



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TABLE TwoGeneral Education Students 1386 (Projected)

ProvinceName

MaleStudents

FemaleStudents

F/MGenderRatio

% Boysin

Province

% Girlsin

ProvinceTotal

Students

% ProvinceStudents in

Afg

Badakhshan 138,407 121,739 0.88 53.20% 46.80% 260,146 4.28%

Badghis 54,903 16,098 0.29 77.33% 22.67% 71,001 1.17%

Baghlan 175,892 115,808 0.66 60.30% 39.70% 291,700 4.80%

Balkh 198,899 141,770 0.71 58.38% 41.62% 340,669 5.60%

Bamyan 57,508 44,215 0.77 56.53% 43.47% 101,722 1.67%

Daikondi 47,878 28,033 0.59 63.07% 36.93% 75,911 1.25%

Farah 72,505

a study of human resource supply labour market demand

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