a system dynamics approach for aiding effects-based operations planning
TRANSCRIPT
INSTITUTO TECNOLÓGICO DE AERONÁUTICA
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR AIDING EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS PLANNING
José Carlos de Melo JúniorMischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain
Ana Lucia Pegetti
The environment in which military operations occur have changed.
complexity
uncertainty
58,209 153,303 $168 BILLIONDEATHS WOUNDED COSTS OF THE WAR
EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS: THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH
Smith, Edward
“ The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001
fundamentally changed our security environment. The
system of strategic deterrence in place since the beginning of the Cold War visibly collapsed.
Probability of Success = MEANS X WILL²
GREAT MEANS
LIMITED WILL
LIMITED MEANS
GREAT WILL
Effects
Based
Operations
COGNITIVE Domain1
INFORMATION Domain2
PHYSICAL Domain3
Shaping Behaviour: Operations in the Cognitive Domain.
Bounded Rationality
dynamiccomplexityreal worldperformance
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Reactive short-term actions may trigger
side effects that result in undesired, and
sometimes long-term irreversible
consequences.
How to overcomehuman cognitive
limitations?
System Dynamics Methodology
"People cannot simulate mentally even the simplest possible feedback system, the first-order linear positive feedback.
System dynamics is a perspective and set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems.”
John StermanProfessor at MIT
Your Title Here
Four equivalent representations containing the same information
System structures represented by (a) causal loop diagrams and (b) a stock and flow
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND EFFECTS-BASED OPERATIONS: A COUNTER-GUERRILLA EXAMPLE
Insurgents300
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Time (Week)Insurgents : Only Supression
Insurgents300
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Time (Week)Insurgents : Rule JustlyInsurgents : Only Supression
Insurgents300
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Time (Week)Insurgents : IntelligenceInsurgents : Rule JustlyInsurgents : Only Supression
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CONCLUSIONS
Thank You
2004-2007BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE ACADEMYPIRASSUNUNGA-SP
2008-2009NATAL AIR FORCE BASENATAL-RN
2009-2011BELÉM AIR FORCE BASEBELÉM-PA
2012-2015BRAZILIAN AIR FORCE ACADEMYPIRASSUNUNGA-SP
2016-CURRENT AERONAUTICS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGYSÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS-SP
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