1

2

A tops down approach to heliostat cost

J. Larmuth, W. Landman and P. Gauché

TIA Helio 100 Project, University of Stellenbosch

Solar Thermal Energy Research Group (STERG), University of Stellenbosch

3

• Heliostat cost reduction • Tops down approach • Cost road map • Landing zone • Cost model template • Results

4

4

LCOE breakdown for a central receiver CSP plant in South Africa (IRENA 2012)

100MW Tower

15hr Storage

5

5

Total installed cost for a central receiver CSP plant in South Africa (IRENA 2012)

100MW Tower

15hr Storage

6

• Tops Down

• Bottoms Up

7

Conceptual Design

Final Design

Cost Roadmap

Landing Zone

Cost Model Template

Industrialisation and

Quantitative Cost

Reduction

Time bound cost targets

Cost and performance budget

Component cost and Performance Tracking

Existing Quantitative Methods

8

8

$75/m2

$100/m2

$215/m2

$545

$273/m2

$120/m2

$85/m2

64

128

256

512

1024

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Co

st (

log:

$/m

2)

2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal

Helio 100 Target Low Voume Costs

Technology Learning Cost Reductions

9

10

10

$75/m2

$100/m2

$215/m2

$545

$273/m2

$85/m2

64

128

256

512

1024

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Co

st (

log:

$/m

2)

2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal

Helio 100 Target Low Voume Costs

Technology Learning Cost Reductions

11

11

$75/m2

$100/m2

$215/m2

$545

$273/m2

$120/m2

$85/m2

40 m2

200 m2

1

10

100

1 000

10 000

100 000

1 000 000

64

128

256

512

1024

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

An

nu

al P

rod

uct

ion

Vo

lum

e (l

og:

m2

/yea

r)

Co

st (

log:

$/m

2)

2011 SunShot Goal $100 Goal

Helio 100 Target H40 Low Voume Cost

Technology Learning Cost Reductions Production Volume (m2/year) with 12.00 % Learning Rate

Expon. (Production Cost ($/m2) with 12.00 % Learning Rate) Expon. (Production Cost ($/m2) with 17.50 % Learning Rate)

Expon. (Production Volume (m2/year) with 12.00 % Learning Rate) Expon. (Production Volume (m2/year) with 17.50 % Learning Rate)

12

12

Drive 1(Azimuth)

Drive 2(Elevation)

MirrorSupport

Structure

Controlsand

Cabling

ElevationAssembly

DirectHeliosatSupport

MirrorModule

PedestalAlignment

andCheckout

FieldWiring

Foundation

High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-

H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

ost

s ($

/m2

20

14

USD

)

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 2

01

4 U

SD)

13

13

Drive 1(Azimuth)

Drive 2(Elevation)

MirrorSupport

Structure

Controlsand

Cabling

ElevationAssembly

DirectHeliosatSupport

MirrorModule

PedestalAlignment

andCheckout

FieldWiring

Foundation

High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-

H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

ost

s ($

/m2

20

14

USD

)

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 2

01

4 U

SD)

14

14

ATS

Heliostat HI Heliostat

SAIC SM

Heliostat BSE Heliostat

DLR Novel

Heliostat

Confidence

Published Data

(Unproven)

Published Data

(Unproven)

Published Data

(Unproven)

Unproven (DLR

Estimate)

Aspirational

DLR Estimate

Production Rate 5 000/yr. 1000 units 2000/yr. - -

Direct Cost/Area $130.22 $129.72 $181.83 $124.37 $90.12

Mirror Module $28.31 $33.01 $46.92 $16.44 $16.44

Mirror Support Structure $24.91 $7.16 $83.36 $39.73 $28.77

Elevation Assembly $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $6.85 $13.70

Drive 1 (Azimuth) $27.41 $30.02 $18.43 $28.77 $2.74

Drive 2 (Elevation) $27.41 $30.02 $18.43 $8.22 $2.74

Controls and Cabling † $2.23 $24.68 $2.62 $8.84 $10.21

Pedestal $19.94 $4.83 $12.06 $15.53 $15.53

Direct Heliostat Support $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Field Costs $18.88 $26.96 $32.02 $57.84 $57.84

Foundation $2.74 $2.41 $18.92 $7.76 $7.76

Field Wiring $8.70 $15.31 $7.26 $14.73 $14.73

Alignment and Checkout $7.45 $9.23 $5.85 $35.35 $35.35

Total Installed Cost $149.10 $156.68 $213.85 $182.21 $147.96

15

15

Drive 1(Azimuth)

Drive 2(Elevation)

MirrorSupport

Structure

Controlsand

Cabling

ElevationAssembly

DirectHeliosatSupport

MirrorModule

PedestalAlignment

andCheckout

FieldWiring

Foundation

High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-

Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-

Outstanding $30 $30 $17 $20 $15 $12 $18 $8 $5 $- $-

H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278

Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

ost

s ($

/m2

20

14

USD

)

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 2

01

4 U

SD)

16

16

Drive 1(Azimuth

)

Drive 2(Elevatio

n)

MirrorSupportStructure

Controlsand

Cabling

ElevationAssembl

y

DirectHeliosatSupport

MirrorModule

Pedestal

Alignment and

Checkout

FieldWiring

Foundation

High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-

Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-

H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278

Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Cum

ula

tive C

osts

($/m

2 2

014 U

SD

)

Com

ponent

Costs

($/m

2 2

014 U

SD

)

17

17

Drive 1(Azimuth)

Drive 2(Elevatio

n)

MirrorSupportStructure

Controlsand

Cabling

ElevationAssembly

DirectHeliosatSupport

MirrorModule

PedestalAlignmen

t andCheckout

FieldWiring

Foundation

High Vol H40 $68 $49 $32 $31 $28 $28 $20 $17 $5 $- $-

Target $47 $46 $23 $29 $18 $18 $19 $15 $5 $- $-

Aspirational $21 $21 $16 $23 $11 $17 $17 $2 $5 $0 $0

H40 Cumulative $68 $117 $149 $180 $208 $236 $255 $273 $278 $278 $278

Target Cumulative $47 $93 $116 $145 $163 $181 $200 $215 $220 $220 $220

Aspirational Cumulative $21 $43 $59 $82 $93 $110 $127 $128 $133 $133 $133

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

Cum

ula

tive C

osts

($/m

2 2

014 U

SD

)

Com

ponent

Costs

($/m

2 2

014 U

SD

)

18

18

Current Cost Target Cost Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3

Production Rate 20/yr. 20 000/yr. 20 000/yr.

Direct Cost/Area $545 $273 $215

Mirror Module $33 $20 $20

Mirror Support Structure $110 $32 $22

Elevation Assembly $55 $28 $18

Drive 1 (Azimuth) $114 $68 $47

Drive 2 (Elevation) $69 $49 $46

Controls and Cabling $54 $31 $29

Pedestal $54 $17 $15

Direct Heliostat Support $56 $28 $18

Field Costs $6 $5 $5

Foundation $0 $0 $0

Field Wiring $0 $0 $0

Alignment and Checkout $6 $5 $5

Total Installed Cost $551 $278 $220

19

Departure Point

Project Traget

BSE Cost Current Cost

Aspirational Cost

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2014-03-02 2014-04-21 2014-06-10 2014-07-30 2014-09-18 2014-11-07 2014-12-27

20

20

(Brightsource, 2013) (Google,

2011)

(Japan Solar Techno

2012)

(eSolar, 2013) (Pfahl, 2013) (Kolb,2007))

Cost/m2

21

22

𝜎𝑇𝑜𝑡2 = 𝜎𝐴𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑟

2 + 𝜎𝑆𝑢𝑛2 + 𝜎𝐵𝑄

2 + (2𝜎𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑘)2

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

SecondaryAxis NVE

Primary AxisNVE

Beam QualityErrors

TotalSecondaryAxis Error

TotalPrimary Axis

Error

Total BeamQuality Error

Total OpticalError

No

rma

l Ve

cto

r E

rro

r [

mra

d]

Drive 1 (Azimuth) Drive 2 (Elevation) Controls and Cabling

Mirror Module Elevation Assembly Direct Heliostat Support

Mirror Support Structure Pedestal Total Secondary Axis Error

Total Tracking Error Total Primary Axis Error Total Beam Quality Error

23

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Drive 1(Azimuth)

Drive 2(Elevation)

Controls andCabling

DirectHeliostatSupport

ElevationAssembly

Pedestal

No

rma

l Ve

cto

r E

rro

r [m

rad

]

Co

mp

on

en

t C

ost

($

/m

2)

- 2

01

3

Component Cost Component NVE

24

Departure Point

Project Target

BSE Cost Current Cost

Aspirational Cost

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2014-03-02 2014-04-21 2014-06-10 2014-07-30 2014-09-18 2014-11-07 2014-12-27

25

Low Volume Costs < 100 units p.a

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

H40 Invoiced H100 Pilot

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 )

Direct Heliosat Support

Pedestal

Controls and Cabling

Drive 2 (Elevation)

Drive 1 (Azimuth)

Elevation Assembly

Mirror Support Structure

Mirror Module

26

Volume Costs 20 000 units p.a.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

H40 Heliopod H100

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 )

Alignment and Checkout

Direct Heliostat Support

Pedestal

Controls and Cabling

Drive 2 (2nd Axis)

Drive 1 (1st Axis)

Elevation Assembly

Mirror Support Structure

Mirror Module

27

Volume Costs 20 000 units p.a.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

H40 Heliopod H100

Co

mp

on

ent

Co

sts

($/m

2 )

Alignment and Checkout

Direct Heliostat Support

Pedestal

Controls and Cabling

Drive 2 (2nd Axis)

Drive 1 (1st Axis)

Elevation Assembly

Mirror Support Structure

Mirror Module

Aspirational Costs

Conservative Cost

28

• Heliostat cost is complex and inexact science • This method provides a convenient approach during

early design phase • Allows for continuous cost learning through the design

process • Realises $150/m2 heliostat cost

29

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:

CONTACT DETAILS:

visit us: concentrating.sun.ac.za

Solar Thermal Energy Research Group (STERG) Stellenbosch University South Africa

James N. Larmuth

larmuth@sun.ac.za +27 (0)21 808 4016

30

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Secondary AxisNVE

Primary AxisNVE

Beam QualityErrors

TotalSecondary Axis

Error

Total PrimaryAxis Error

Total BeamQuality Error

Total OpticalError

No

rma

l V

ect

or

Err

or

[m

rad

]

Drive 1 (Azimuth) Drive 2 (Elevation) Controls and Cabling

Mirror Module Elevation Assembly Direct Heliostat Support

Mirror Support Structure Pedestal Total Secondary Axis Error

Total Optical Error Total Primary Axis Error Total Beam Quality Error

31