a tradition of independent thinking hybrid linking etsap ... · post paris policy context –cop21...

A TRADITION OF

INDEPENDENT

THINKING

Hybrid Linking ETSAP TIAM.Assessing technological pathways to WB2DS

James Glynn, et al.

IExEW2016, Brighton, UK

Acknowledgements

Centre International de Recherchesur l’Environnement et le Développement

• To give you some guidance, the overall aim of the workshop is to identify potential research collaborations that can form the basis for future funding bids. As part of that process, by inviting a select number of energy modellers, economists and policy analysts, we are wishing for an interactive event that explores questions which focus on critical reflection, including:

1. What is the state-of-the-art and strengths and weaknesses of current exergy economics research?

2. What are the conflicts and synergies between exergy economics and mainstream energy economics?

3. What are the contributions of exergy economics to climate change and sustainability analysis?

4. What are the potential policy implications of this work?

5. What future research directions in this area appear most promising?

Presentation Brief

Outline

• Research Question:• How far below 2°C is feasible? (if at all?)

• What would the macroeconomic impacts, demand response and sectoral dynamics be?

• Presentation in two sections

• TIAM-MACRO• How far below 2C towards 1.5C can we go?

• TIAM-KLEM (work in Progress)• Hybrid linking methods between KLEM and ETSAP-TIAM

• What I would like out of this workshop is to collaborate with an expert on modelling & assessing limits to substitution in hybrid BU-TD energy systems models, as well as to explore type questions around limited applicability of Cost Share for energy as factors of production and growth.• Energy Service Demand Estimation

• Energy Service Demand Response to Radical Changes to the Energy System (WB2DS in 2100)

Post Paris Policy Context –COP21Highlight figures.

• CP21, Article 2.1(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2˚C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 ˚C would significantly reduce risks and impacts of climate change

• AR5 carbon budget for the total global cumulative emissions since 2011 that are consistent with a global average temperature rise of 1.5C above pre industrial levels with 50% probability is 550GtCO2.

• Considering the aggregate effect of INDCs, global cumulative CO2

emissions are expected to equal 97% by 2025 and 134% by 2030 of the cumulative emissions consistent with achieving a temperature increase of less than 1.5˚C

• INDCs result in ~52GtCO2e/yr in 2030

• Not on a 2 ˚C least cost consistent path

<2˚C - 1.5˚C Carbon Budgets

Future Emissions Pathways1150 emission scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Data Source: AR5 Emissions Database

https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AR5DB/

Best Estimate INDC (PBL)

GLOBAL ETSAP-TIAM model

• Linear programming bottom-up energy system model of IEA-ETSAP

• Integrated model of the entire energy system

• Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (2100)• Demand driven by exogenous energy service demands

• Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market)

• Optimal technology selection

• Minimizes the total system cost

• Environmental constraints• Integrated Climate Model

• 15 Region Global Model

• Price-elastic demands

• Local Atmospheric Pollution External Costs

• Macro Stand Alone• Single consumer-producer, multi-regional, inter-temporal general equilibrium

model which maximises regional utility.• The utility is a logarithmic function of the consumption of a single generic

consumer.

• Production inputs are labour, capital and energy.• Energy demand and energy costs from ETSAP-TIAM model.• MSA Re-estimates Energy Service Demands based on energy cost

ETSAP-TIAMReference Energy System

Source: Loulou, R., Labriet, M., 2008. ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: Model structure. Comput. Manag. Sci. 5, 7–40. doi:10.1007/s10287-007-0046-z

TIMES Energy System Model

Cost and emissions balance

GDP

Process

Heating area

Population

Light

Comms

Power

Person kilometers

Freight kilometers

Service Demands

Coal processing

Refineries

Power plants

and

Transportation

CHP plants

and district

heat networks

Gas network

Industry

Commercial

and

Tertiary

Households

Transport

Final energyPrimary energy

Domestic

sources

Imports

Dem

an

ds

En

erg

y p

rices, R

eso

urc

e a

vailab

ilit

y

• All in all some 45 demand categories in transport, agricultural, commercial, residential and industrial sectors (useful demand)

• These demands are defined for each time period as

Demand = K * DriverX

• K is the demand in 2000,

• X is the region specific response to a change in the indexed driver

• Demand specific drivers are:• Population

• GDP

• GDP/household

• Sectorial GDP

• GDP/capita

• Number of households

• Demand elasticities

Energy Service Demand Estimation

My Affinity Group Question from Yesterday:

Can our understanding of Exergy Economics

enable better projections of energy service

demands on less uncertain trends?

Population.. Rather than GDP?

Res Heat

Ind Heat

Person Km

Freight Km…

Transformation

Refinery,

Power Plants,

Gas Network,

Briquetting...

Primary energy prices,

Resource availability

Primary energy Final energy Service Demands

GDP, Population,

Industrial Activity

TIMES & MACRO Stand Alone

Domestic

sources

Imports

Consumption

Industry,

Services,

Transport,

Residential...

MACRO Stand Alone (MSA)

General Equilibrium

Macroeconomic Model

Energy Costs

Labour

ConsumptionInvestmentCapital

Demand

Response

Cru

de O

il

Raw

Gas

Gaso

lin

e

Natu

ral G

as

Ele

ctr

cit

y

𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑈 =

𝑡=1

𝑇

𝑟

𝑛𝑤𝑡𝑟 . 𝑝𝑤𝑡𝑡 . 𝑑𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑟,𝑡. 𝑙𝑛 𝐶𝑟,𝑡

R

r YEARSy

yREFYR

yr yrANNCOSTdNPVMin1

, ),()1(

Co

al

Heat

Light

Motion

ETSAP-TIAM MSA (TMSA)

Macro Stand Alone

𝑀𝑎𝑥 𝑈 =

𝑡=1

𝑇

𝑟

𝑛𝑤𝑡𝑟 . 𝑝𝑤𝑡𝑡. 𝑑𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑟,𝑡 . 𝑙𝑛 𝐶𝑟,𝑡 (1) (MSA OBJz)

𝑌𝑟,𝑡 = 𝐶𝑟,𝑡 + 𝐼𝑁𝑉𝑟,𝑡 + 𝐸𝐶𝑟,𝑡 + 𝑁𝑇𝑋(𝑛𝑚𝑟)𝑟,𝑡 (2)

𝑌𝑟,𝑡 = 𝑎𝑘𝑙𝑟 ∙ 𝐾𝑟,𝑡𝑘𝑝𝑣𝑠𝑟∙𝜌𝑟 ∙ 𝑙𝑟,𝑡

(1−𝑘𝑝𝑣𝑠𝑟)𝜌𝑟 +

𝑘

𝑏𝑟,𝑘 ∙ 𝐷𝐸𝑀𝑟,𝑡,𝑘𝜌𝑟

1𝜌𝑟

(3)

• nwt – Negishi Weights

• pwt – weight Multiplier

• dfact – utility discount factor

• C - Consumption

• Y – Production

• INV – Investment

• EC – Energy Cost

• NTX – Net exports

• akl – production fn constant

• K – Capital

• kpvs – capital value share

• l - Labour annual growth

• b – Demand coefficient

• p – elasticity of substitution

• DEM - Energy Demands

R

r YEARSy

yREFYR

yr yrANNCOSTdNPVMin1

, ),()1( (TIAM OBJz)

• Incremental Carbon Budgets from 1400GtCO2-400GtCO2

• Climate model controlling concentrations of CH4 and N20 for 2 ˚C in 2100

• Delaying action where feasible 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040

• Find the feasible solution space in AR5 carbon budgets between 2˚C and 1.5˚C

• AR5 all working group Synthesis Report Table 2.2

Scenario Definitions

<1.5C <2C>3.5C

Carbon Budget GtCO2 66% 50% 33% 66% 50%

Start Year/Delayed Action

400 500 550 600 700 800 850 900 1000 1300 1400 Base

2005 <1.5C 66% <1.5C 50% <1.5C 50% <1.5C 50% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <2C 66% <2C 50% <2C 50% 4DS

2010 <1.5C 66% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <2C 66% <2C 50% <2C 50%

2020 <1.5C 66% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <2C 66% <2C 50% <2C 50%

2030 <1.5C 66% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <2C 66% <2C 66% <2C 50%

2040 <1.5C 66% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C50% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <1.5C 33% <2C 66% <2C 66% <2C 50%

MACRO

RUNS

CO2 Trajectories

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

CO

2 (O

NLY

) (G

t/yr

)

Years

BASE_0

Historical FFI

2DS_CM_1400GtCO2

2DS_CM_1400GtCO2_DA10

2DS_CM_1400GtCO2_DA10_MSA



2DS_CM_1300GtCO2



2DS_CM_1000GtCO2


2DS_CM_900GtCO2

2DS_CM_850GtCO2

2DS_CM_800GtCO2

2DS_CM_700GtCO2

2DS_CM_600GtCO2

2DS_CM_550GtCO2

2DS_CM_500GtCO2

Primary Energy Supply

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

4DS . 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

2005 2030 2050 2070 2100

Pri

mar

y En

ergy

Su

pp

ly (

Mto

e)

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Renewable except hydro and biomass

Power System production

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

4DS . 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

. 4DS 2DS50%

2DS50%

DA30

2DS66%

2005 2030 2050 2070 2100

Elec

tric

ity

Cap

acit

y (G

W) Solar PV

Solar Thermal

Wind

Geo and Tidal

Biomass CCS

Biomass

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas and Oil

Coal

How low (<2°C) can we go?1.5C – Temperature threshold or 2100 Target

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge (

°C)

BASE_0_CM

2DS_CM_1400GtCO2






2DS_CM_1300GtCO2




2DS_CM_1000GtCO2




2DS_CM_900GtCO2

2DS_CM_850GtCO2

2DS_CM_800GtCO2

2DS_CM_700GtCO2

2DS_CM_600GtCO2

2DS_CM_550GtCO2

Temperature Change1.5C – Threshold or 2100 Target

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge (

°C)

BASE_0_CM







Marginal Abatement costsbreak by starting year…

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110

Mar

gin

al A

bat

emen

t C

ost

($2

005/

tCO

2

2DS_CM_1400GtCO2

2DS_CM_1300GtCO2

2DS_CM_900GtCO2

2DS_CM_850GtCO2

2DS_CM_800GtCO2

2DS_CM_700GtCO2

2DS_CM_600GtCO2

2DS_CM_550GtCO2

2DS_CM_500GtCO2

2DS_CM_400GtCO2








GDP losses & Delayed Action

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

2DS 50%

2DS 50% DA20

2DS 50%

2DS 50% DA20

2DS 50%

2DS 50% DA20

2DS 50%

2DS 50% DA202

03

02

05

02

07

02

10

0

GDP Loss %

Former Soviet Union

Australia & NZ

South Korea

Other Developing Asia

Canada

Middle East

China

East Europe

Africa

India

West Europe

Japan

USA

Central South America

Mexico

Why Hybrid Linking?

• Update TIAM Macroeconomic outlook(s)

• Harmonisation of energy service demands with changing economic outlook.

• Aim for Best of both worlds.

• Technological Explicitness

• Macroeconomic realism

• Sectoral Dynamics (Energy, Non Energy, Households)

• Demand response (adaptation) is critical to meet deep decarbonisation scenarios.

• Moving forward from TIAM-MACRO

• Investigate multi-sector dynamics

• Better represent socio-economic dynamics

Overview of linkage

• TIMES-MACRO (Remme & Blesl, 2006)

• TIAM-KLEM

TIAM

Energy p&qs

KLEM

Labour

ES investment

Households’ consumption

Public consumption

International trade

Investment

Non-E/E Capital

Non-E output

Simultaneously

Iteratively

?Non-E prices?

• Achieving below 2C is improbable, with our current understanding of technological development and limited representation of demand response or behavioural change.

• GDP losses in the utility maximising least cost scenario for delayed action to 2020 is regionally varied and inequitable.

• Greater structural resolution and flexibility is required in hybrid models to better account for limits to substation and structure change.

• This hybrid type of approach steps towards sectoral specific dynamics of decarbonising from a bottom up technology explicit perspective

• Unemployment, structural changes, sectoral outputs

• Could inform targeted regional/sector specific transition policies

Conclusions

Outline

• Research Question:• How far below 2°C is feasible? (if at all?)

• What would the macroeconomic impacts, demand response and sectoral dynamics be?

• Presentation in two sections

• TIAM-MACRO• How far below 2C towards 1.5C can we go?

• TIAM-KLEM (work in Progress)• Hybrid linking methods between KLEM and ETSAP-TIAM

• What I would like out of this workshop is to collaborate with an expert on modelling & assessing limits to substitution in hybrid BU-TD energy systems models, as well as to explore type questions around limited applicability of Cost Share for energy as factors of production and growth.• Energy Service Demand Estimation

• Energy Service Demand Response to Radical Changes to the Energy System (WB2DS in 2100)

Collaborators and funders

Environmental Research Institute

Instiúd Taighde Comshaoil

Energy Policy and Modelling Group

www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

@james_glynn

[email protected]

James is a postdoctoral researcher @ERIUCC @UCC

working on national and global energy systems models

interested in hybrid energy-economy models, macro-

economic feedbacks, climate, and energy security.

eMail: [email protected]

Twitter: @james_glynn

Web: www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

Profile: http://www.ucc.ie/en/energypolicy/people/jamesglynn/

https://twitter.com/eriucc

https://twitter.com/UCC

mailto:[email protected]

https://twitter.com/james_glynn

http://www.ucc.ie/energypolicy

http://www.ucc.ie/en/energypolicy/people/jamesglynn/

a tradition of independent thinking hybrid linking etsap ... · post paris policy context –cop21...

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